Why the draft is overrated for team success

[cribdog 0]

Look at the consensus top 4, ADP, Charles, CJ, Foster. Could have thrown a blanket over them, and the only one worth anything so far is ADP. Happens every year. Success is based on luck and team management, has virtually nothing to do with the draft. Look at the threads from the end of last year, everyone is touting how little of their original roster they have left, yet they are still deep in the playoffs.

 

Your team is just as likely to succeed with autodraft, luck, and good management!

 

[Matt Mueller 146]

Ehh if anything a 'bad' first round pick kills your draft.

 

I'm 0-2 b/c I grabbed CJ. If I had some cajones and grabbed McCoy or Forte I'd likely be 2-0.

[cyclone24 1,814]

I wouldnt say its overrated....but people just dont avoid bad situations and go with consensus too much...'

 

For instance...i wanted no part of CJ (holdout), AP (terrible offense and line), Foster (hamstring, and lost Veach, and only one year)or Charles (terrible offense). I got Ray Rice...good first round pick.

 

 

People didnt draft a Lesean mccoy or Darren Mcfadden as early as they should because its not "popular".

 

Not that i didnt make some bad choices in my own draft at some point.....but in round one...you just have to avoid bad situations.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I wouldnt say its overrated....but people just dont avoid bad situations and go with consensus too much...'

 

For instance...i wanted no part of CJ (holdout), AP (terrible offense and line), Foster (hamstring, and lost Veach, and only one year)or Charles (terrible offense). I got Ray Rice...good first round pick.

 

 

People didnt draft a Lesean mccoy or Darren Mcfadden as early as they should because its not "popular".

 

Not that i didnt make some bad choices in my own draft at some point.....but in round one...you just have to avoid bad situations.

 

Totally agree. I bought Rice and Forte in my auction league and I'm 2-0.

 

For me it's all about targeting the players you think will perform well in their industry defined 'tiers' and avoiding those you think are likely to bust/underperform at all costs. As well as drafting for upside late.

[Pavlov 0]

I wouldnt say its overrated....but people just dont avoid bad situations and go with consensus too much...'

 

For instance...i wanted no part of CJ (holdout), AP (terrible offense and line), Foster (hamstring, and lost Veach, and only one year)or Charles (terrible offense). I got Ray Rice...good first round pick.

 

 

People didnt draft a Lesean mccoy or Darren Mcfadden as early as they should because its not "popular".

 

Not that i didnt make some bad choices in my own draft at some point.....but in round one...you just have to avoid bad situations.

 

Agreed, which is why I went McCoy. Obviously, no one can predict injuries, but you didn't need to predict Foster's injury (and lack of ProBowl FB) or CJ's lack of fitness and unfamiliarity with the offense. KC had regression written all over it, but I still think Charles' talent is such that he's a must-draft in round 1, but probably not top 3-4. AP is 6th overall in RB points right now, so it's tough to say that he's a wasted pick.

[cyclone24 1,814]

Agreed, which is why I went McCoy. Obviously, no one can predict injuries, but you didn't need to predict Foster's injury (and lack of ProBowl FB) or CJ's lack of fitness and unfamiliarity with the offense. KC had regression written all over it, but I still think Charles' talent is such that he's a must-draft in round 1, but probably not top 3-4. AP is 6th overall in RB points right now, so it's tough to say that he's a wasted pick.

 

 

Yep and i also wanted no part of guys in new systems.....Gore and Moreno for example. Not that they CANT perform..i jsut didnt want the risk of that amount of change over a lockout.

 

Having said that...i picked Reggie Wayne knowing manning had an injury when VJAX was available.....but at the draft...Wayne seemed safer and more consistant. Woops.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

you dont win in round 1 but you can lose. pretty simple.

[Doozer 0]

PROMETHEUS!!

[jgcrawfish 232]

you dont win in round 1 but you can lose. pretty simple.

 

i agree with this. this whole thing we do is mostly educated guessing. some of us are just better guessers than others.

[jerryskids 5,206]

you dont win in round 1 but you can lose. pretty simple.

 

But if you don't lose, don't you win? Unless you have a lot of ties. Maybe your league needs better tiebreakers.

[jgcrawfish 232]

But if you don't lose, don't you win? Unless you have a lot of ties. Maybe your league needs better tiebreakers.

 

freakin attorneys

[Bearnut 0]

I seem to have a bad pick in the first round every year. Last year I took Moss (11th pick) and we all know how he turned out. The year before I took Forte #4 in his down year (standard scoring back then). This year I took CJ. Not shocked he has been worthless.

 

Thankfully I still won the past 2 years thanks to shrewd management. Hopefully I can at least get a playoff spot this year. Not looking great at 0-1-1.

[Maroon Bells 18]

Been saying that for years. Fantasy leagues are won in rounds 5 to 10. That's where you target players you feel good about. That's where the time spent on research and inside information comes in. That's where the Arian Fosters and Mike Wallaces came from last year. It's where the Kenny Britts and the Matthew Staffords came from this year. All I want from rounds 1-4 is safety. Safest guy on the board. IOW, the guy least likely to be last year's Randy Moss. Or this year's Foster or Charles. And how do you know who those players are? You don't. It's luck, that's why a monkey with a magazine usually drafts as well as you do in rounds 1 thru 4. Likewise in rounds 11-16. Championships are won in rounds 5-10.

[krizay 0]

I'm in a 14 team league and as of right now i'm high scorer for the week with really only my 2nd round pick (in the 1st 7 rounds) doing anything. Granted that 2nd round pick was VJax but.........

 

1st round 6 pts (foster)

3rd round bench (Bowe)

4th round bench (Tampa Mike)

5th round 7 and change (Boldin)

6th round bench (Ingram)

7th round bench (Pierre Thomas)

 

 

I tell people all the time 1st round pick is overrated. Unless you're getting the LT2 of old.

[devius 4]

I'm in a 14 team league and as of right now i'm high scorer for the week with really only my 2nd round pick (in the 1st 7 rounds) doing anything. Granted that 2nd round pick was VJax but.........

 

1st round 6 pts (foster)

3rd round bench (Bowe)

4th round bench (Tampa Mike)

5th round 7 and change (Boldin)

6th round bench (Ingram)

7th round bench (Pierre Thomas)

 

 

I tell people all the time 1st round pick is overrated. Unless you're getting the LT2 of old.

 

screw LT2 of old.... Priest Holmes of old....

[De Novo 0]

Your team is just as likely to succeed with autodraft, luck, and good management!

Autodraft wouldn't have given you Foster or McFadden last year. Auto-draft wouldn't have given you Gronkowski, Britt, or Stafford this year.

[cribdog 0]

Autodraft wouldn't have given you Foster or McFadden last year. Auto-draft wouldn't have given you Gronkowski, Britt, or Stafford this year.

Autodraft gave me AJ, Fitzpatrick, best, and Gonzalez and I am about to be 2-0. The only advanced ratings I did was say don't draft Colts. I don't know about you, but I wasn't targeting Fitz.

 

In my draft league I am 1-1, wasting 1.4 on CJ.

 

In my auction league I am kicking butt with Brady, Stafford (2 QB) and Megatron.

 

My autodraft team is good, and I just have to manage it well.

[American Chewy 98]

i would only agree with you when it comes to season ending injuries to players who had never been injured. Thats total bad luck.

 

I didn't really want Charles but drafting at 7 i was "stuck" with him. It was that or reach for a top WR, or reach for the next tier RB's like Mccoy or Mcfadden. Guys who i thought might be there like Rodgers or MJD were gone. I was very close to reaching for a "safer" guy but ended up going Charles and now i'll pay for it. I have to hope Best, Benson, and now D. Thomas hold up and perform decent as I'm pretty solid at other positions.

[Axe Elf 0]

Success is based on luck and team management, has virtually nothing to do with the draft. Look at the threads from the end of last year, everyone is touting how little of their original roster they have left, yet they are still deep in the playoffs.

 

 

Luck and team management have something to do with it, but that doesn't mean you can start out with crap and win your league. The people who are deep into the playoffs often have several different players than they did after the draft because of injuries, trades, and a waiver pickup or two that worked out for them. But even so, they probly started out with pretty good teams after the draft as well. You can't go losing 4 or 5 of the first 6 or 7 games while you're building your team and then win your way into the playoffs from there--you have to DRAFT a good enough team to get you 4 or 5 wins in the first half of the season to go along with another 4 or 5 wins (hopefully) in the second half of the season as you cope with the injuries, make the waiver grabs, and execute the trades that keep you putting points on the board.

[RSersen 0]

But if you don't lose, don't you win? Unless you have a lot of ties. Maybe your league needs better tiebreakers.

 

I think he's right. Round 1 is a minefield. If you can get through it without making the wrong pick, you didn't win anything - you've just survived.

[cribdog 0]

I think he's right. Round 1 is a minefield. If you can get through it without making the wrong pick, you didn't win anything - you've just survived.

 

This is what I'm saying, but it's not just round 1, it is every round. In each round you will have some guys that perform way above their ADP, and some that go way below it. It is really just a crapshoot. And you can say that you are going to take the "safer" pick, but injuries and underperformance are nothing you can really plan on. Take Brady a couple of years ago, no injury history, looked very safe, and wham, out the first week. Also, every year somebody comes out of nowhere to be great, usually goes from undrafted to stud.

 

I stand by my original statement, you can just autodraft so you get some reasonable players, then through luck and team management you can win a championship. Draft is overrated.

[jgcrawfish 232]

This is what I'm saying, but it's not just round 1, it is every round. In each round you will have some guys that perform way above their ADP, and some that go way below it. It is really just a crapshoot. And you can say that you are going to take the "safer" pick, but injuries and underperformance are nothing you can really plan on. Take Brady a couple of years ago, no injury history, looked very safe, and wham, out the first week. Also, every year somebody comes out of nowhere to be great, usually goes from undrafted to stud.

 

I stand by my original statement, you can just autodraft so you get some reasonable players, then through luck and team management you can win a championship. Draft is overrated.

 

i don't buy this, at all. I'm in PPR leagues and I had Ray Rice as my top RB (bearing in mind the Foster hammy inj). If I had drawn the 1 pick, I was going with Rice. Fortunately, I was #5 and practically did a backflip when he was still there (thought for sure he was going at #4 but the dude went with Chris Johnson). I took the guys I targeted. Rice/Gore/Best/Starks, Fitz/Marshall/Harvin, Witten/Graham. I picked my guys. I work the WW more than anybody else in the league, and picking up Ben Tate may be my best move so far, just for the handicap of the Foster owner. He's likely not cracking my starting lineup, but he's definitely not cracking his. Nobody can predict sudden season-ending injuries, so your Tom Brady thing is a moot point. But knowing that Arian Foster has a hammy injury and those tend to linger is something I can predict, and avoid take the risk of.

 

I've said it's educated guessing...but it still requires education.

[p00h 85]

round 1 is not a minefield, semantically speaking. Top tier RBs are a minefield...

 

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=379843&st=0&p=4401513entry4401513

 

You're welcome...

[Fantasy Noob 10]

I don't think you can say the draft is over rated for team success since it should field the majority of your roster for the entire year. The draft is going to lock up 120-150 of the most viable FF players for the entire season in most leagues. Your left searching the WW for sleepers, breakouts and suprises with all the other owners who are doing the same thing.

 

Like Maroon Bells said, rounds 5 through 10 and heck I will say 5 through last round are critical for your success. This is where you load up on guys that are going to way outperform their ADP and fill in for your inevitable injuries.

 

Working the WW, weekly matchups and trades is key to every teams success but if you have those 6 key spots covered QB,2RB,2WR,TE with sufficient depth from your draft you might only need to find one WR or TE on the WW all year.

 

I guess after all that the summation of my arguement would be if you drafted well you would use the WW far less than a team that drafted poorly. Giving you better WW position for the key players you did want to grab.