Looking Ahead to FF Redrafts: 2012 (12/19/11)

[Fumbleweed 426]

This is something I like to post on site every mid-December and then update it each week for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2012 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices.

 

Round One:

 

1. LeSean McCoy

2. Ray Rice

3. Arian Foster

4. Aaron Rodgers

5. Maurice Jones-Drew

6. Adrian Peterson

7. Drew Brees

8. Calvin Johnson

9. Matt Forte

10. Cam Newton

11. Ryan Mathews

12. Tom Brady

 

Round Two:

 

13. Michael Turner

14. Wes Welker

15. Frank Gore

16. Fred Jackson

17. Larry Fitzgerald

18. Chris Johnson

19. Rob Gronkowski

20. Jamaal Charles

21. Marshawn Lynch

22. Steve Smith

23. Roddy White

24. Tony Romo

 

Round Three:

 

25. Greg Jennings

26. Shonn Greene

27. Philip Rivers

28. Andre Johnson

29. Matthew Stafford

30. Hakeem Nicks

31. Jimmy Graham

32. Darren McFadden

33. Eli Manning

34. Mike Wallace

35. Steven Jackson

36. Vincent Jackson

 

Round Four:

 

37. Reggie Bush

38. A.J. Green

39. Rashard Mendenhall

40. Jordy Nelson

41. Michael Vick

42. Victor Cruz

43. Matt Ryan

44. Dez Bryant

45. DeMarco Murray

46. Antonio Gates

47. Peyton Manning

48. Roy Helu

 

Just missed: Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Bush, Cedric Benson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Beanie Wells, Brandon Marshall, Miles Austin, Percy Harvin.

[Chronic Husker 85]

No Tebow?

 

[Your Playing 4 Second 0]

Round One:

 

1. LeSean McCoy

2. Arian Foster

3. Ray Rice

4. Aaron Rodgers

5. MJD

6. AD

7. Drew Brees

8. Calvin Johnson

9. Matt Forte

10. Tom Brady

11. Fred Jackson

12. Cam Newton

 

Round Two:

 

13. Ryan Mathews

14. Wes Welker

15. Frank Gore

16. Michael Turner

17. Andre Johnson

18. Chris Johnson

19. Rob Gronkowski

20. Jamaal Charles

21. Marshawn Lynch

22. Steve Smith

23. Roddy White

24. Matthew Stafford

 

Round Three:

 

25. Greg Jennings

26. DMC

27. Eli Manning

28. Hakeen Nicks

29. Philip Rivers

30. Larry Fitzgerald

31. Jimmy Graham

32. Shonn Greene

33. Tony Romo

34. V Jax

35. Steven Jackson

36. Victor Cruz

 

Round Four:

 

37. Mike Vick

38. Mike Wallace

39. DeMarco Murray

40. A.J. Green

41. Rashard Mendenhall

42. Jordy Nelson

43. Matt Ryan

44. Dez Bryant

45. Reggie Bush

46. Antonio Gates

47. Peyton Manning

48. Roy Helu

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Top 4 rounds with no Trent Richardson?

[Fumbleweed 426]

Top 4 rounds with no Trent Richardson?

 

This does not include potential rookies as was noted in the original post.

[Fumbleweed 426]

No Tebow?

 

 

Tebow is a difficult guy to place value on. He's sort of a poor man's Michael Vick.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

This does not include potential rookies as was noted in the original post.

My fault. When I opened the thread I just saw blah-blah-blah-blah-blah and then the 1st four rounds. My mistake.

[theplaymaker 0]

If Andy Reid doesn't stay with Philly (and it sounds like he might not) then McCoy drops below Foster.

[mrmcgibblets 0]

If Andy Reid doesn't stay with Philly (and it sounds like he might not) then McCoy drops below Foster.

 

With 9 games this year under 20 carries with Reid, I'm not sure if a new coach would be bad news for Shady.

[zmanzzzz 1]

i like stuff to read.

 

i enjoyed the cronic = poor man inference, lol.

[Gepetto 988]

That would have been a good draft for this year. Everyone, always chasing last year's points.

[Busted by the Feds 9]

Julio Jones ?

[Fumbleweed 426]

That would have been a good draft for this year. Everyone, always chasing last year's points.

 

That's a valid point. It's December so this is more of a baseline to start with than some sort of radical set of projections.

 

Interesting thought on Julio Jones, also. Probably still a fifth rounder for me with White and Gonzalez still there.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Round One:

 

1. LeSean McCoy

2. Arian Foster

3. Ray Rice

4. Aaron Rodgers

5. MJD

6. AD

7. Drew Brees

8. Calvin Johnson

9. Matt Forte

10. Tom Brady

11. Fred Jackson

12. Cam Newton

 

Round Two:

 

13. Ryan Mathews

14. Wes Welker

15. Frank Gore

16. Michael Turner

17. Andre Johnson

18. Chris Johnson

19. Rob Gronkowski

20. Jamaal Charles

21. Marshawn Lynch

22. Steve Smith

23. Roddy White

24. Matthew Stafford

 

Round Three:

 

25. Greg Jennings

26. DMC

27. Eli Manning

28. Hakeen Nicks

29. Philip Rivers

30. Larry Fitzgerald

31. Jimmy Graham

32. Shonn Greene

33. Tony Romo

34. V Jax

35. Steven Jackson

36. Victor Cruz

 

Round Four:

 

37. Mike Vick

38. Mike Wallace

39. DeMarco Murray

40. A.J. Green

41. Rashard Mendenhall

42. Jordy Nelson

43. Matt Ryan

44. Dez Bryant

45. Reggie Bush

46. Antonio Gates

47. Peyton Manning

48. Roy Helu

Shonn greene will not be drafted before murray. Its a broken bone not a ligament tear.

 

If you draft AD as anything higher than a rb3 your nuts. He tore both ligaments very badly near the end of the year. He may never be the same again. Isnt the rule to draft safe the first round?

 

Fred jackson will be 31. I would rather have a younger back. See murray. Also spiller has looked pretty damn good.

 

Gore hasnt had many stud like games. I like a back with more upside and less injury risk. If it is someone with a high injury risk it better be dmc.

 

Turner has had so many damn carries the last 3 years that the chances of him being a top 10 back just are not very good.

 

Put julio in the first four rnds at least. I like his consistancy more than steve smith for sure. Also a lot younger.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Peterson's injury came after this was put out there. My next update will include him and his injury in it.

[ru93 0]

I would take Forster over Rice, they have identical numbers and Forster missed the first three weeks. Well he played in week 2 but was very limited.

 

Micheal Turner late first round pick, Tom Brady would prob be a early 2nd in our league.

 

I would possibly take Graham in the late 2nd and McFadden (if he was healthy in the preseason.) Romo would be a 3rd round pick, and maybe Chris Johnson or Roddy White.

 

I also like AJ Green and Mendenhall more than I do Vjax and Green.

 

 

I am glad somebody started this up!

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

I'd feel shafted if I ended up with Forte as my first round pick.

[Evil Genius 0]

I do not like Cam in the First round.

 

My gut tells me he has a regression in his sophomore year.

 

In saying this, I really appreciate his amazing skills and the late round value...but I think first round is nuts when Stafford, Rivers, Brady will all still be sitting on the Board until the late 2nd, 3rd or even 4th.

 

Like last year, some guys overvalue the current hot seasons and they think repetition is easy when it's practically impossible. Last year, around this time, some were arguing Vick #1 overall. So I take issue and say 'you're facked' and they say "WAIT and see, a$$clown!"

 

So I waited and I saw.

 

Same with Cam. First round ? Caveat Emptor.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

i have to think what Brandon Marshall did this year with Henne/Moore at the helm is pretty impressive. If Moore is the man in Miami, it will be another year of chemistry between the two and if Miami finds a more talented option, it should only be a boost to Marshall.

 

Id have him in the top 4 rounds.

[seadog54 20]

if Lynch resigns with the Seahawks, I think he should be a low first rounder or high second. the Seahawks offense revolves around him no matter who they draft next year.

 

And Fred Jackson is done. put a fork in him. FA, 31 years old, surgery... he will be signed as a backup somewhere next year. CJ Spiller will be starting for Buffalo next year so bump him to low 2nd to mid 3rd

[rdrs4life 0]

So, Michael Turner is almost 1st round material and Beanie is 5th round+ ???

 

Turner - 1129yds and 9tds

 

Wells - 1047yds and 10tds

 

I have owned both all year and value both almost identically...just don't understand the drastic gap in your rankings here at all.

[BufordT 371]

That would have been a good draft for this year. Everyone, always chasing last year's points.

Is there any other way to do it??

[RSersen 0]

So, Michael Turner is almost 1st round material and Beanie is 5th round+ ???

 

Turner - 1129yds and 9tds

 

Wells - 1047yds and 10tds

 

I have owned both all year and value both almost identically...just don't understand the drastic gap in your rankings here at all.

 

Well Turner had a really awesome season four years ago, so the fact that he's been 'just alright' ever since doesn't change the fact that he's always worth a top 20 pick. Forget that he'll be almost 31 by the start of next season, and that the Falcons are clearly pointed in the direction of the Ryan, White, and Jones show, and that they drafted a quick, pass-catching RB to start eating into Turner's production next season.

 

I'd take Wells over Turner. Although I obviously wouldn't take either as high as Turner is currently being ranked.

[ru93 0]

So, Michael Turner is almost 1st round material and Beanie is 5th round+ ???

 

Turner - 1129yds and 9tds

 

Wells - 1047yds and 10tds

 

I have owned both all year and value both almost identically...just don't understand the drastic gap in your rankings here at all.

 

I forgot about Beanie, and I see him as a third round pick next year. I know him and Turner have identical numbers and I see Turner as a late 1st round pick but heres why.

 

Beanie's injury problems. I know he only missed one game full game this year, but he is always questionable and he has a terrible past with injuries. Look how many games he missed in 2010 and 2009.

 

Also he can be inconsistent and hard to predict at times. At home against the Rams this year he had 33 total yards and no TD's, in Baltimore he had 83 yards and a TD.

[ru93 0]

Well Turner had a really awesome season four years ago, so the fact that he's been 'just alright' ever since doesn't change the fact that he's always worth a top 20 pick. Forget that he'll be almost 31 by the start of next season, and that the Falcons are clearly pointed in the direction of the Ryan, White, and Jones show, and that they drafted a quick, pass-catching RB to start eating into Turner's production next season.

 

I'd take Wells over Turner. Although I obviously wouldn't take either as high as Turner is currently being ranked.

 

If turner scores one TD tonight or a TD next week then that will make 4 years in a row he has had double digit TD's, and 3 out of the 4 past season he has had over a 1000 yards rushing.

 

He's worth a top 20 pick.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

VJAX in the 3rd?

Com'on. Really???

[asav78 0]

Cruz will be going mid to end of 2nd... No way he goes late 3rd

[ru93 0]

Round One:

 

1. Arian Foster

2. LeSean Mccoy

3. Ray Rice

4. Aaron Rodgers

5. Maurice Jones-Drew

6. Drew Brees

7. Calvin Johnson

8. Adrian Peterson

9. Matt Forte

10. Michael Turner

11. Wes Welker

12. Marshawn Lynch

 

Round Two:

 

13. Cam Newton

14. Rob Gronkowski

15. Frank Gore

16. Ryan Matthews

17. Tom Brady

18. Chris Johnson

19. Jamaal Charles

20. Larry Fitz

21. Fred Jackson

22. Steve Smith

23. Roddy White

24. Matthew Stafford

 

Round Three:

 

25. Greg Jennings

26. Jimmy Graham

27. DMC

28. Mike Wallace

29. Tony Romo

30. Beanie Wells

31. Jordy Nelson

32. Reggie Bush

33. Eli Manning

34. Steven Jackson

35. Victor Cruz

36. A.J. Green

 

Round Four:

 

37. Michael Vick

38. Ahmad Bradshaw

39. Phillip Rivers

40. Hakeem Nicks

41. Rashard Mendenhall

42. Vincent Jackson

43. Peyton Manning

44. Julio Jones

45. DeMarco Murray

46. Antonio Gates

47. Shonn Greene

48. Matt Ryan

[swamp dog 0]

if you're a burn-a-early-round-pick-on-a-qb guy, it makes no sense to take rodgers or brees in round 1 when you can get great value in rounds 2 and 3 at that position.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Round One:

 

1. Arian Foster

2. LeSean Mccoy

3. Ray Rice

4. Aaron Rodgers

5. Maurice Jones-Drew

6. Drew Brees

7. Calvin Johnson

8. Adrian Peterson

9. Matt Forte

10. Michael Turner

11. Wes Welker

12. Marshawn Lynch

 

Round Two:

 

13. Cam Newton

14. Rob Gronkowski

15. Frank Gore

16. Ryan Matthews

17. Tom Brady

18. Chris Johnson

19. Jamaal Charles

20. Larry Fitz

21. Fred Jackson

22. Steve Smith

23. Roddy White

24. Matthew Stafford

 

Round Three:

 

25. Greg Jennings

26. Jimmy Graham

27. DMC

28. Mike Wallace

29. Tony Romo

30. Beanie Wells

31. Jordy Nelson

32. Reggie Bush

33. Eli Manning

34. Steven Jackson

35. Victor Cruz

36. A.J. Green

 

Round Four:

 

37. Michael Vick

38. Ahmad Bradshaw

39. Phillip Rivers

40. Hakeem Nicks

41. Rashard Mendenhall

42. Vincent Jackson

43. Peyton Manning

44. Julio Jones

45. DeMarco Murray

46. Antonio Gates

47. Shonn Greene

48. Matt Ryan

Adrian peterson in the first round? I hope people pick him there because that means one less person has a chance at the playoffs. PETERSON TORE HIS ACL at the end of the year. Why would he go in the first round? Seriously that is probably the worst projection i have ever seen.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

A few notes:

 

Gonk is good, but if you are in a league that must start a TE, i would wait 3-4 rounds later and grab A. Hernandez. Teams will put more emphasis on Gonk next year which will open up things up for A. Hernandez. Hernandez finished 3rd overall in TE scoring in most league, but he missed 2 games early in the season due to an injury.

 

No way you can draft Welker in the first round. He has a history of concussions. I would take guys like Julio Jones, V. Cruz, Jennings, Nelson 2-3 rounds later.

 

Newton ahead of Brady and Stafford? Really?

[mgs316 14]

A few notes:

 

Gonk is good, but if you are in a league that must start a TE, i would wait 3-4 rounds later and grab A. Hernandez. Teams will put more emphasis on Gonk next year which will open up things up for A. Hernandez. Hernandez finished 3rd overall in TE scoring in most league, but he missed 2 games early in the season due to an injury.

 

No way you can draft Welker in the first round. He has a history of concussions. I would take guys like Julio Jones, V. Cruz, Jennings, Nelson 2-3 rounds later.

 

Newton ahead of Brady and Stafford? Really?

 

Pretty sure teams were trying to stop Gronk after TD 12,13,14,15...didn't work. Gates has always been able to get his until injury slowed him. TE's like that are just difficult to cover unless you commit double teams the whole game and it still doesn't always work. Only thing that stops Gronk is Brady injury.

[ru93 0]

if you're a burn-a-early-round-pick-on-a-qb guy, it makes no sense to take rodgers or brees in round 1 when you can get great value in rounds 2 and 3 at that position.

 

You can use that logic if you want, but Rodgers and Brees will both be 1st round picks next year if they stay away from injury.

[ru93 0]

Adrian peterson in the first round? I hope people pick him there because that means one less person has a chance at the playoffs. PETERSON TORE HIS ACL at the end of the year. Why would he go in the first round? Seriously that is probably the worst projection i have ever seen.

 

This is assuming he is playing in the pre-season next year healthy and with the 1st team. If he is then he will be took in the first round, not top 3 but still in the 1st round.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

This is assuming he is playing in the pre-season next year healthy and with the 1st team. If he is then he will be took in the first round, not top 3 but still in the 1st round.

 

No thanks. He tore it all at the end of the season. He may play at the beginning of next year but he won't be 100%. I want nothing to do with him in the 1st next year.

[ru93 0]

A few notes:

 

Gonk is good, but if you are in a league that must start a TE, i would wait 3-4 rounds later and grab A. Hernandez. Teams will put more emphasis on Gonk next year which will open up things up for A. Hernandez. Hernandez finished 3rd overall in TE scoring in most league, but he missed 2 games early in the season due to an injury.

 

No way you can draft Welker in the first round. He has a history of concussions. I would take guys like Julio Jones, V. Cruz, Jennings, Nelson 2-3 rounds later.

 

Newton ahead of Brady and Stafford? Really?

1. I don't but into that about Gonk, defense's had to be putting there focus on him in week 12 and 13 when he already had double digit TD's...he was still getting it done.

 

2. Two out of the past three years Welker has had over 1300 yards receiving, assuming he is healthy during pre-season he will be took between 10-15.

 

3. 12 out of Newtons 16 fantasy games he had over 17 points...four of them was 30 point games, and he was only a rookie. The Panthers are only going to get better, and although I might not feel comfortable (if I was drafting today) taking him that high I think he will be took in that area by somebody.

[Busted by the Feds 9]

Don't reach for Gronk. Especially 1st or 2nd round, that's crazy. Jared Cook, for example, might be a good middle round TE pick. He came on strong during the final weeks stretch run to the playoffs . There's also Hernandez, the other Pats TE .

[Houston Texans 10]

Don't reach for Gronk. Especially 1st or 2nd round, that's crazy.

I wouldn't take him that early, but why is it crazy?

 

I think a conservative projection for Gronkowski would be 1000 yards & 10 TDs. He has averaged 937/9 his first 2 seasons, and he only started 10/16 games in 2010.

 

Based on the 1000/10 projection, he is similar in stats to 2nd round WRs (from this year) like Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, V Jax, etc. If it's not crazy to take them in round 2, why would it be crazy to take Gronkowski? In fact, it would make even more sense, as the drop between Gronkowski and other TEs would be more drastic then the drop between those type WRs and the next tier of WRs.

[murf74 461]

I wouldn't take him that early, but why is it crazy?

 

I think a conservative projection for Gronkowski would be 1000 yards & 10 TDs. He has averaged 937/9 his first 2 seasons, and he only started 10/16 games in 2010.

 

Based on the 1000/10 projection, he is similar in stats to 2nd round WRs (from this year) like Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings, V Jax, etc. If it's not crazy to take them in round 2, why would it be crazy to take Gronkowski? In fact, it would make even more sense, as the drop between Gronkowski and other TEs would be more drastic then the drop between those type WRs and the next tier of WRs.

 

Its TE bias...he has stats of the best wr next to megaton....if he was a wr he would never last past first couple picks of 2nd round.

 

His value and Graham are 2nd to none

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

This is assuming he is playing in the pre-season next year healthy and with the 1st team. If he is then he will be took in the first round, not top 3 but still in the 1st round.

Why would you assume hes healthy? Did you assume michael vick would be released from jail in 2008 just in time for football? I wouldnt take charles in the first round and he tore his acl the second week. Keep assuming.