Players that turned it on at the end of last season

[Matt Mueller 146]

One of the things I try to do during the offseason isn't focusing on final end of the season numbers as much as I'm looking for trends.

 

Did someone have a bad first half but they then turned it on the latter part of the year?

 

Might they be undervalued based on last years end of the season totals based if they were to continue their most recent production?

 

If you can think of anyone that had a hot second half, or final 4 games, or had a good start/middle of the year stretch but fell of due to injury or something please post them.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Matt Ryan was underwhelming most of the first half of last year. First 7 games saw one outlier of 4 tds and subar efforts of 5 1 td game and 1 0 td game. Not great and certainly not helping your team win.

 

However at some point in the middle of the season, whether it was Atlanta going more no huddle, figuring out the line, Ryan getting comfortable with Julio Jones, him getting healthy ect Ryan turned into someone that might not win you a game but at least could be counted on for solid production.

 

From the 8th game of the season to the 15th, discrediting week 16 where he didn't play much, Ryan averaged 298 yards and he also threw for 18 tds during that stretch.

 

Ryan finished the season with a stat line of 4,177 and 29 but if we were to extrapolate his second half production he would have been at 4,768 36.

 

Not a ground breaking difference but something that I thought was worth noting.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Reggie Bush seemingly came out of nowhere last season. Whether it was a fluke or not he finished with 4 100 yard games and totalled around 1,400 yards and 7 tds. Surely his best and most complete fantasy season ever.

 

All of this considered he really didn't get things going until the second half of the year.

 

From week 8 on he totaled 751 yards rushing and 182 yards receiving along with 6 tds.

 

Doubling these stats seems a bit ambitious, especially given his track record and with Marshall gone, although they might feature him more, but if we were that would put him at 1,502 rushing, 364 receiving and 12 tds.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Titus Young finished a mostly successful rookie campaign with a 48-607-6 stat line.

 

Much of that production, especially the tds, came in the final quarter of the season where he put up 17-171-4.

 

I am not going to extrapolate such a small sample size and give him 12 tds but on one of the most pass friendly attacks in the league, Titus is a good candidate to emerge as the second WR option and likely the 3rd best option on the team slightly behind Pettigrew in terms of targets.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Jared Cook was a flat out beast the last 3 games of the season.

 

Posting 21 catches for 335-1.

 

Again a small sample size but he's a physical freak and can be had as an upside TE 2.

 

He very likely could emerge as the second best bet for targets on the team after Britt.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

Jared Cook was a flat out beast the last 3 games of the season.

 

Posting 21 catches for 335-1.

 

Again a small sample size but he's a physical freak and can be had as an upside TE 2.

 

He very likely could emerge as the second best bet for targets on the team after Britt.

 

He's who I came in to mention. He'll be my #2 TE next season.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Julio Jones

 

Posted a 5-959-8 last year but really excelled late posting a 20-393-6 stat line over the final 4 games of the season.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Percy Harvin

 

Finished 87-967-6 and 345-2.

 

While he had 8 total tds on the season he had 7 in the final 7 games.

 

Headache/injury/use concerns have plagued Harvin a bit but he could be featured even more with AP possibly limited. Of course the flip side is true that teams can take Harvin away more so with less offensive weapons on the field.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Marques Colston

 

Posted a 80-1,143-8 stat line but really excelled over the final 4 games of the season posting 29-422-4.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Deangelo Williams

 

A relatively underwhelming year at 836-7 and 16-135 but 6 of those tds game in the final 6 games.

 

Kind of a crapshoot as to who might get goal line tds with Cam and Stewart there, along with Tolbert who they claim to be a full time fb, but if Jstew leaves both of those carolina rbs could be bargins.

[Matt Mueller 146]

** Player that fell off slightly.

 

AJ Green

 

Had a very successful rookie year and looks to be one of the top 10, if not top 5, most physically gifted receivers in the league.

 

Very successful campaign at 65-1,057-7 but he was held without a TD in his final 4 games including being held to 2 catches in each of his final 2 games.

 

He is a player on the rise but a minor concern might be that with the lack of skill on Cinci and the relative inexperience of Dalton that he might be taken out of games.

 

 

FWIW, he was held to 5 catches for 47 yds-no tds on 12 targets in the playoff loss to Houston as well.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Personally I would discount the strong finishes from Colston and DeAngelo Williams. Colston should not be overvalued because those knees aren't getting any younger. As for DeAngelo, the TD production was likely somewhat of a fluke. The guy is now three years removed from his whopping 2008 season. How often do RBs turn it on later in their careers? (Yes I know he is only 28, but point is it's hard to believe he's suddenly going to return to elite or even very good status.)

[420allstars 13]

Personally I would discount the strong finishes from Colston and DeAngelo Williams. Colston should not be overvalued because those knees aren't getting any younger. As for DeAngelo, the TD production was likely somewhat of a fluke. The guy is now three years removed from his whopping 2008 season. How often do RBs turn it on later in their careers? (Yes I know he is only 28, but point is it's hard to believe he's suddenly going to return to elite or even very good status.)

 

Agree 100%, I wouldnt touch either if I could.. somtimes VBD would force my hand but I dont think either falls far enough to end up on one of my re-draft teams.

[edytwinky 1]

CJ Spiller was a work horse during the fantasy football playoffs for me.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Personally I would discount the strong finishes from Colston and DeAngelo Williams. Colston should not be overvalued because those knees aren't getting any younger. As for DeAngelo, the TD production was likely somewhat of a fluke. The guy is now three years removed from his whopping 2008 season. How often do RBs turn it on later in their careers? (Yes I know he is only 28, but point is it's hard to believe he's suddenly going to return to elite or even very good status.)

 

I agree DeAngelo was fluky. 100%

 

If you are scared of Colston's knees sure draft someone else but as far as production he continued with streak into the playoffs posting over 100 and a td in each playoff game as the leading receiver for the Saints. With Graham and Sproles in town it's nearly impossible to take him out of the equation.

 

Meachem is gone and that simply leaves Colston as Bree's most familiar and likely most relied upon WR.

 

** I'm not saying Colston will stay healthy but he might have a better track record of health and production than say Andre Johnson. Someone like D. Thomas has an injury history too. Colston, besides the surgeries, has reminded on the field producing.

[Kent 228]

CJ Spiller was a work horse during the fantasy football playoffs for me.

 

Guy I was thinking of adding to the list. He looked like the first rounder they were hoping he was.

[BufordT 371]

How about Matt Flynn?? It was a one game streak but what a streak. He's got to have some talent to put up those #'s. Seattle has a good receiving corps and they appear to be heading in the right direction.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Good call on Flynn, albeit with a new team.

 

I'm gonna add Roy Helu to the list. I'll break down the numbers later.

[Larry David 20]

Julio Jones

 

Posted a 5-959-8 last year but really excelled late posting a 20-393-6 stat line over the final 4 games of the season.

In my league, he was the best WR during the playoffs (week 14, 15 and 16) outscoring Megatron by two points.

[stonewall 647]

Jared Cook was a flat out beast the last 3 games of the season.

 

Posting 21 catches for 335-1.

 

Again a small sample size but he's a physical freak and can be had as an upside TE 2.

 

He did the same thing at the end of 2010

 

 

 

Good thread, by the way. Peyton Hillis anyone?

[Matt Mueller 146]

He did the same thing at the end of 2010

 

 

 

Good thread, by the way. Peyton Hillis anyone?

 

Great call. Had no idea about that.

 

Last 2 games of 2010=12 catches 154 yards and his only td of the season.

 

Very strange.

[Cstriker 2]

Agree 100%, I wouldnt touch either if I could.. somtimes VBD would force my hand but I dont think either falls far enough to end up on one of my re-draft teams.

 

would not touch dwill even in round 10. Players like that will cost you some important games when you least expect a dud in the down stretch.

[diomed1 0]

Harvin/Marshawn Lynch/Roy Helu

[Raider 84 29]

D. Moore

[Skurzilla 0]

Yeah Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford put up some incredible numbers last year. I think people expected them to do good, but they blew the lid off their personal bests!

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

He did the same thing at the end of 2010

 

 

 

Good thread, by the way. Peyton Hillis anyone?

 

Of course, let us not forget that he had a new HC, new OC, and new QB to deal with going into last season, and no offseason. And the mental part has been his weakness.

 

I'm not enough of a homer to advocate taking him as your starter. But I will target him as my backup, with hopes that he explodes early and I can deal him off high.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Of course, let us not forget that he had a new HC, new OC, and new QB to deal with going into last season, and no offseason. And the mental part has been his weakness.

 

I'm not enough of a homer to advocate taking him as your starter. But I will target him as my backup, with hopes that he explodes early and I can deal him off high.

 

All true. But to play devils advocate he's going to a team that likes to run, based on their history with Charles/Jones, a decent offensive line, good defense and the ultra porous, of last year, rushing defense of Oakland and Denver.

[DrG 94]

Nice thread Matt,

 

Roddy White also improved in the 2nd half after he got healthy. He played much of the year hurt and came on late.

 

CJ Spiller did look pretty good. Was it partly having fresh legs late in the year? Fitzpatrick also played hurt later in the year. Buffalo is another interesting team to watch.

 

Aaron Hernandez started to show flashes later in the year - another guy who was hurt.

 

And Michael Crabtree - he started off the year hurt and came on at the end of the year.

[Natetradomus 0]

I'd like to say Crabtree, but he will always be inconsistent with Alex Smith and his lack of work ethic. Denver WRs should be strong value this season. Maybe even their TE (yea i have no idea who they are) and Mcgahee.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Nice thread Matt,

 

Roddy White also improved in the 2nd half after he got healthy. He played much of the year hurt and came on late.

 

CJ Spiller did look pretty good. Was it partly having fresh legs late in the year? Fitzpatrick also played hurt later in the year. Buffalo is another interesting team to watch.

 

Aaron Hernandez started to show flashes later in the year - another guy who was hurt.

 

And Michael Crabtree - he started off the year hurt and came on at the end of the year.

 

Great calls. White had a tremendous second half. He and Julio Jones are the best 1-2 receiving bet in the league for my money.

 

Spiller had both the opportunity, Fred Jackson going down, and fresh legs. Gonna be interesting to see how that plays out.

 

Hernandez is another player who ended on a tear and also had a great playoff run.

 

Crabtree was mad consistent as a wr 3 for a stretch in my .5 ppr league.

 

I'll break down some of the numbers on some of these guys later.

 

Thanks for the calls.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

All true. But to play devils advocate he's going to a team that likes to run, based on their history with Charles/Jones, a decent offensive line, good defense and the ultra porous, of last year, rushing defense of Oakland and Denver.

 

Um, Jared Cook is still a Titan.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Um, Jared Cook is still a Titan.

 

My bad. Read your comment wrong. I was talking about Hillis.

 

What was your point on Cook that I clearly missed?

[Phurfur 70]

CJ Spiller was a work horse during the fantasy football playoffs for me.

 

and Jackson is 31 years old, I think he is ready to take over.

[Matt Mueller 146]

and Jackson is 31 years old, I think he is ready to take over.

 

And if not take over, he showed enough talent to warrant snaps and touches last year from my perspective.

 

Really like him as an rb3/4 with upside.

 

Bills offense should be a heavy dose of Freddie, Spiller and Stevie next year.