This Years Draft Strategy..

[RedzoneMonster 102]

Seems every year there is a position to wait on, and this yr Im feeling its WR. It seems QB was the position to wait on the past few years, but if last year proved anything it was you were at a huge advantage if you had one of the elite QBs. Not many will be waiting until Rd 6 to draft thier QB1 this year I bet.

 

RB situation this year looks extremely bleak IMO. After Foster, McCoy, and Rice is there ANY RB you truly trust as your #1? Lets look at current 4-12 ADP at RB.

 

4. MJD - Ok, good last yr, but he IS on JAX and has Gabbert. Not getting any younger.

5. CJ - Do you trust him? I don't.

6. Ryan Matthews - Big upside w/ Tolbert gone, but can he stay healthy?

7. McFadden - see Matthews..

8.. M. Lynch - Here's a guy I don't trust as far as I can throw him. Already pegged as a low character guy, he does nothing for a few years (even his 1st with SEA), but come contract time he plays well. Just signed new contract. Do you trust him? He is my #1 bust canidate for 2012.

9. D. Murray - See Matthews and McFadden.

10. M. Forte - contract issues aside, the signing of Bush HAS to decrease his value.

11. A. Peterson - Health #1 concern. You want to draft him as your #1 RB?

12. J. Charles - See AP.

 

 

With that said, Im looking at EARLY ADPs for WRs and DAMN there seems to be a lot of value with guys listed at Rd 4 and beyond. My strategy this year is going to be load up on as many QB and RB as I can in rds 1-4 (and maybe aven TE), then grab at least 4 WRs rds 5 on.

 

 

4.04,40.0,Julio Jones,WR,ATL,531 - Great value.

4.07,42.7,Marques Colston,WR,NO,528- Great value.

4.07,43.3,Steve Smith,WR,CAR,487 - - Great value.

4.09,44.5,Kenny Britt,WR,TEN,517 - Injury seems ok now, just whats the QB situation. Could be a steal.

4.09,45.0,Dez Bryant,WR,DAL,512

4.12,47.7,Miles Austin,WR,DAL,501 - - Great value.

5.01,49.4,Demaryius Thomas,WR,DEN,532 - 3rd yr WR + showed flashes of potential already + PEYTON MANNING = ?.....

5.02,50.0,Percy Harvin,WR,MIN,500- Great value.

5.04,52.1,Vincent Jackson,WR,TB,515 - I'd take him as my #2 WR in 5th rd.

5.05,52.6,Dwayne Bowe,WR,KC,533 - Was playing ok until Cassel got hurt. Value could be too low right now.

5.07,55.1,Brandon Lloyd,WR,NE,457 - Played pretty well given circumstances in STL. Reunited with McDaniles and now has some guy named BRADY throwing to him...

5.10,57.8,DeSean Jackson,WR,PHI,541

5.12,59.9,Stevie Johnson,WR,BUF,586- Great value. Tailed off last year, but I'd take him here as my #2.

6.01,61.2,Jeremy Maclin,WR,PHI,516

6.02,61.6,Antonio Brown,WR,PIT,527

6.09,69.3,Eric Decker,WR,DEN,581 - The New Ausin Collie?...

7.03,75.3,Robert Meachem,WR,SD,471 - I like Floyd Better.

7.05,77.2,Reggie Wayne,WR,IND,430

7.08,79.7,Torrey Smith,WR,BAL,496

7.09,80.6,Justin Blackmon,WR,FA,424 - Depends were he lands.

8.02,85.6,Sidney Rice,WR,SEA,368

8.03,86.6,Pierre Garcon,WR,WAS,457 - Antwan Randle El anyone?...

8.04,88.1,Malcom Floyd,WR,SD,395 - LOVE him in 8th rd!

8.11,95.2,Santonio Holmes,WR,NYJ,446

9.01,96.8,Denarius Moore,WR,OAK,451 - Big upside for little price.

9.03,98.7,Anquan Boldin,WR,BAL,394

9.05,100.7,Randy Moss,WR,SF,341

9.11,107.1,Laurent Robinson,WR,JAC,416

9.11,107.4,Mike Williams,WR,TB,422

9.12,107.8,Lance Moore,WR,NO,396

10.03,111.3,Darrius Heyward-Bey,WR,OAK,341

10.05,112.9,Titus Young,WR,DET,405 - showed a few flashed last year. Still very young. Has Stafford throwing to him..

10.07,114.6,Mario Manningham,WR,SF,294

10.11,118.5,Michael Crabtree,WR,SF,253

11.04,123.6,Vincent Brown,WR,SD,253

11.04,124.2,Michael Floyd,WR,FA,408

11.04,124.3,Santana Moss,WR,WAS,249 - If he stays on WAS he could be this year's 2011 Steve Smith (CAR).

11.09,128.7,Danny Amendola,WR,STL,208

11.10,129.7,Nate Washington,WR,TEN,258

12.08,139.7,Greg Little,WR,CLE,252

12.10,141.9,Emmanuel Sanders,WR,PIT,238

12.10,142.0,Austin Collie,WR,IND,206

13.01,145.0,Jacoby Ford,WR,OAK,143

13.02,145.8,Kendall Wright,WR,FA,208

13.04,147.5,Jon Baldwin,WR,KC,187

13.08,152.4,James Jones,WR,GB,199

13.10,153.8,Brandon LaFell,WR,CAR,44

13.10,153.9,Plaxico Burress,WR,NYJ,121

13.12,156.3,Eddie Royal,WR,SD,132

14.01,157.3,Steve Smith,WR,PHI,103

14.02,158.0,Nate Burleson,WR,DET,75

[Muggleborn 0]

RB's

4. MJD - Gabbert was a rookie - way to early to write him off. Will be nice having a RB like MJD while developing - not as though Jax Wr's have been impressive.

5. CJ - If 1 bad season is enough to sour your outlook I guess you should pass on him.

6. Ryan Matthews - Has the opportunity and at this point worth the gamble

7. McFadden - #1 level production when on the field makes him a high reward/risk option - Shoot for the stars or be content watching your playoffs from the side lines.

8.. M. Lynch - I share some of your concerns here and with the anticipated upgrade at the QB position they may not have to rely on him as much

9. D. Murray - Productive to the point they considered trading Jones - 1st injury in the league is not enough to write him off.

10. M. Forte - bad blood,hold out?, Bush... all the makings of a down season and I will let someone else take an early pick for him.

11. A. Peterson - If he shows he is close to 100% leading up to the fantasy draft - #1 RB in a heartbeat

12. J. Charles - This like Peterson would have a lot to do with how he looks leading up to the draft.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

I look at it the opposite. With all the uncertainty at RB, I plan to take QB and WR in rounds 1-2. I am MUCH more confident that, say, Aaron Rogers and Megatron are gonna carry my team than Chris Johnson and McFadden.

 

I aim to not miss in Rd 1.

[Kent 228]

I'm back to being all in on RBs. The RB position is so lacking in 3 down backs, if you can get two of them, you've got a huge advantage.

[Muggleborn 0]

4.04,40.0,Julio Jones,WR,ATL,531 - I would agree his is a great value as your #2

4.07,42.7,Marques Colston,WR,NO,528- I have undervalued him in the past so can't argue with his value

4.07,43.3,Steve Smith,WR,CAR,487 - - Gotta like his grit but Carolina is not going to surprise anyone this year and I see a drop off on his production

4.09,44.5,Kenny Britt,WR,TEN,517 - I'm not convinced about him even though I like both of the teams QB options

4.09,45.0,Dez Bryant,WR,DAL,512 Have not jumped on his bandwagon even though I understand why others are

4.12,47.7,Miles Austin,WR,DAL,501 - - After a season like last year there is always concern but I would role the dice on him again

5.01,49.4,Demaryius Thomas,WR,DEN,532 - Would not want him as my #1 or #2 Wr (if you plan on taking your #1 in the 4th) His comments about Tebow after dropping several passes last year looks like blaming someone else for his own shortcomings - makes me question his ability to take on the #1 for Denver - Decker will be kept busy in my opinion

5.02,50.0,Percy Harvin,WR,MIN,500- H*** yes

5.04,52.1,Vincent Jackson,WR,TB,515 - Nice #2 even if the Buc's remain a run first team

5.05,52.6,Dwayne Bowe,WR,KC,533 - Another nice #2 option

5.07,55.1,Brandon Lloyd,WR,NE,457 - 3rd team in recent years - will produce but would prefer him as my #3

5.10,57.8,DeSean Jackson,WR,PHI,541 - diva rubbed me the wrong way last year and probably would hold off to long to pull the trigger for him allowing someone else role the dice with him

5.12,59.9,Stevie Johnson,WR,BUF,586- Not the ceiling of D Jax but I would take him ahead of Jackson

6.01,61.2,Jeremy Maclin,WR,PHI,516 - part of the reason by Johnson would be ahead of Jackson

6.02,61.6,Antonio Brown,WR,PIT,527 - to high a price and not comfortable having him as my #3

6.09,69.3,Eric Decker,WR,DEN,581 - Did I read Manning is already working with him? Could see him producing fantasy numbers comparable to Thomas as the one Peyton relies on

7.03,75.3,Robert Meachem,WR,SD,471 - Change of scenery has not convinced me he is ready for a regular rotation slot even though I think highly of Rivers ability to utilize underachieving talent

7.05,77.2,Reggie Wayne,WR,IND,430 - How the mighty have fallen - will have to see how he is working with the new QB before taking him even if this looks about where I would consider it

7.08,79.7,Torrey Smith,WR,BAL,496 - invest in some young talent and hope for the best even if I do not agree with Flacco's assessment of himself

7.09,80.6,Justin Blackmon,WR,FA,424 - Depends were he lands and how he looks during preseason - may buck the recent trend of rookies WR's contributing immediately

8.02,85.6,Sidney Rice,WR,SEA,368 worth keeping an eye on but will have to see something before making this call

8.03,86.6,Pierre Garcon,WR,WAS,457 - Not convinced

8.04,88.1,Malcom Floyd,WR,SD,395 - Still not convinced

8.11,95.2,Santonio Holmes,WR,NYJ,446 - NYJ's will remain a run team and I will probably gamble on a younger player like...

9.01,96.8,Denarius Moore,WR,OAK,451 - HIM.

9.03,98.7,Anquan Boldin,WR,BAL,394 Will still be the WR Flacco relies on as I am not convinced Smith will be as consistent as I would like this year

9.05,100.7,Randy Moss,WR,SF,341 I have never owned him and if things look promising and it doesn't appear he will have a negative impact on team chemistry I would have to consider him

9.11,107.1,Laurent Robinson,WR,JAC,416 - not convinced he is a teams #1 - especially with a developing QB

9.11,107.4,Mike Williams,WR,TB,422 - I would expect a rebound season with him benefiting from VJ's presence

9.12,107.8,Lance Moore,WR,NO,396 - Old and although I am still impressed with him this may be a little early for me

10.03,111.3,Darrius Heyward-Bey,WR,OAK,341 - Not here but if available would take a later round flyer on him

10.05,112.9,Titus Young,WR,DET,405 - Getting to where this is a viable gamble depending on the confidence in the starters ahead of him

10.07,114.6,Mario Manningham,WR,SF,294 - will be interesting on seeing how things work out in SF - could see him here or farther down

10.11,118.5,Michael Crabtree,WR,SF,253 - same comment as Manningham's

11.04,123.6,Vincent Brown,WR,SD,253 - I expect improvement but am taking a wait and see approach if he shows enough during preseason to make that call even for bench fodder

11.04,124.2,Michael Floyd,WR,FA,408 - Depends on where he goes and how he looks in camp

11.04,124.3,Santana Moss,WR,WAS,249 - Will probably wait and have someone else make that call

11.09,128.7,Danny Amendola,WR,STL,208 - Not likely to be on my bench

11.10,129.7,Nate Washington,WR,TEN,258 - same

12.08,139.7,Greg Little,WR,CLE,252 - I would be interested seeing what the team/he shows in camp

12.10,141.9,Emmanuel Sanders,WR,PIT,238 - Remains an interesting prospect but would need him to show some promise of becoming involved this year

12.10,142.0,Austin Collie,WR,IND,206 - I see myself waiting longer than other owners to call his name

13.01,145.0,Jacoby Ford,WR,OAK,143 - same

13.02,145.8,Kendall Wright,WR,FA,208 - would definitely need a decent situation for me to go with him as more than a late round flyer (depending on league format you may be there in the 13th)

13.04,147.5,Jon Baldwin,WR,KC,187 - He still needs to convince me

13.08,152.4,James Jones,WR,GB,199 - Seems forgotten with the talent at the position in GB - might pass and take a shot with Cobb later

13.10,153.8,Brandon LaFell,WR,CAR,44 - Don't see me having enough interest/confidence to draft him

13.10,153.9,Plaxico Burress,WR,NYJ,121 - Still worth a flyer pick

13.12,156.3,Eddie Royal,WR,SD,132 - If Rivers can work magic early and make him relevant I would consider him

14.01,157.3,Steve Smith,WR,PHI,103 - Is he ready? Need to see him on the field first

14.02,158.0,Nate Burleson,WR,DET,75 - Not a bad option but with the emergence of Young I suspect his fantasy relevance may be past

[Muggleborn 0]

I look at it the opposite. With all the uncertainty at RB, I plan to take QB and WR in rounds 1-2. I am MUCH more confident that, say, Aaron Rogers and Megatron are gonna carry my team than Chris Johnson and McFadden.

 

I aim to not miss in Rd 1.

 

There is a definite appeal to what you're planning.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Great post. I too see the depth at WR and especially like some of the guys you've highlighted late, like Denarious Moore and Titus Young.

 

I also see the appeal of Muggleborn's approach, grab QB/WR, but I am more seeing that as a qb play. Really see a big advantage in the big 4. I'm gameplanning RB/Stafford right now in most of my mocks.

 

 

Calvin is a huge advantage but I don't necessarily see more value in Andre Johnson in round 2 than say Julio Jones in round 4. Just a huge amount of depth there after Calvin is gone. #1 guys like Maclin and Stevie Johnson are going mad late too.

 

Regarding the rbs I'd feel ok having any up to Lynch as my #1. After then I see pretty big flaws in all of them. Might as well wait and gamble on Trent R/Reggie Bush/Beanie Wells/Roy Helu or something like that.

[thesitedoc 5]

How true...it looks like it is time to bring back the value of the RB. Off the top of my head I can think of 4 WR's outside of the early top ten that have legitimate shots at top 5-10 numbers, Britt, Marshall, S Smith (CAR) and D Thomas.

 

After the top 3 RB's I see serious question regarding injury and opportunity.

[Kent 228]

How many waiver WRs had great years compared to how many waiver RBs.

 

Off the top of my head I see Victor Cruz (FINISHED #2 in WR scoring in my league) and Laurent Robinson.

 

Were there any undrafted RBs that had great years? Maybe Mike Tolbert?

[Matt Mueller 146]

How many waiver WRs had great years compared to how many waiver RBs.

 

Off the top of my head I see Victor Cruz (FINISHED #2 in WR scoring in my league) and Laurent Robinson.

 

Were there any undrafted RBs that had great years? Maybe Mike Tolbert?

 

I drafted but decided to drop Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson last year so they were a waiver for someone.

[Kent 228]

I drafted but decided to drop Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson last year so they were a waiver for someone.

 

Ouch. My condolences.

 

I dropped Percy Harvin after 8 miserable weeks. Then he went off.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Ouch. My condolences.

 

I dropped Percy Harvin after 8 miserable weeks. Then he went off.

 

Yep. I did that too in another but CJ had already killed my team.

 

The brown/nelson thing actually didn't hurt me too bad. I ended up holding Michael Bush and Ben Tate instead and Bush paid huge dividends.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

Yep. I did that too in another but CJ had already killed my team.

 

The brown/nelson thing actually didn't hurt me too bad. I ended up holding Michael Bush and Ben Tate instead and Bush paid huge dividends.

 

I had CJ, Shonne Greene, and Benson as my backs last year. Matt Ryan as QB.

 

Thankfully, Jennings, Austin, Welker, and Washington got me the 2 seed as I recall. Then, inevitably, CJ focked my and I lost in the title game I think.

[ralphster 274]

Then, inevitably, CJ focked my and I lost in the title game I think.

 

Awesome

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I look at it the opposite. With all the uncertainty at RB, I plan to take QB and WR in rounds 1-2. I am MUCH more confident that, say, Aaron Rogers and Megatron are gonna carry my team than Chris Johnson and McFadden.

 

I aim to not miss in Rd 1.

Except there is no way you are getting both on the same team. The dilema is who put up monster stats last year at wr. Megatron, cruz, nelson, and then a whole bunch of dudes around the same fantasy output. 2 of those guys were undrafted in many leagues, cruz in virtually all of them. I believe if megatron is gone then you go qb rb and grab value at wr. As of now andre johnson is the second rated wr which i do not put a loy of stock in to put up huge numbers when he has never even scored 10 td in a season.

 

If i learned anything from last year it was this: Drafting at the 10th and last position of my big money league there was one strategy i wanted to stay away from, wr wr in the first 2 rounds. Of course it comes to me ans no one has drafted a wr yet and im looking at johnson and johnson as a very tempting start. So of course i go against what i had believed all off season and drafted them. When my turn came back around mike wallace was still there but i needed to start loading up on the rb position tp even my team out.

 

I did make the playoffs but that was only because i got lucky on a few trades and by the end of the year neither of my first 2 round pivks were on my team. I wished i had used my second rnd pick on a rb when it seemed that my "value" picks werent turning out to be so valuable. I think it is easier to identify later round talent at wr than rb and will not make a mistake of undervaluing the rb position thinking i can patch it together.

[titans&bucs&bearsohmy! 2,745]

Except there is no way you are getting both on the same team. The dilema is who put up monster stats last year at wr. Megatron, cruz, nelson, and then a whole bunch of dudes around the same fantasy output. 2 of those guys were undrafted in many leagues, cruz in virtually all of them. I believe if megatron is gone then you go qb rb and grab value at wr. As of now andre johnson is the second rated wr which i do not put a loy of stock in to put up huge numbers when he has never even scored 10 td in a season.

 

If i learned anything from last year it was this: Drafting at the 10th and last position of my big money league there was one strategy i wanted to stay away from, wr wr in the first 2 rounds. Of course it comes to me ans no one has drafted a wr yet and im looking at johnson and johnson as a very tempting start. So of course i go against what i had believed all off season and drafted them. When my turn came back around mike wallace was still there but i needed to start loading up on the rb position tp even my team out.

 

I did make the playoffs but that was only because i got lucky on a few trades and by the end of the year neither of my first 2 round pivks were on my team. I wished i had used my second rnd pick on a rb when it seemed that my "value" picks werent turning out to be so valuable. I think it is easier to identify later round talent at wr than rb and will not make a mistake of undervaluing the rb position thinking i can patch it together.

 

Obviously, I won't get rodgers AND megatron. I just meant that I am inclined to go stud QB (Brady, Brees, Rogers) and Stud WR, as there are much safer plays at those positions.

 

Obviously, if I am drafting top three, that might change, as there are backs up there I feel pretty secure in (foster, rice, shady).

[MDC 5,892]

I do a ton of mock drafts and the one thing I always notice is that I regret not grabbing a RB in the first 2 rounds if I pass. Come the 3-5 rounds I always end up passing on higher value QBs, WRs and TEs and get forced into taking RBs I don't like just to fill out the roster.

[Raider 84 29]

I found the best strategy is to draft the best players available at the qb, rb, or wr position. There are two top TEs but I find it much easier to draft a TE late or trade for one during the season. It is real hard to trade for a great QB or RB. Just my 2 cents.

[Skurzilla 0]

Seems every year there is a position to wait on, and this yr Im feeling its WR.

 

 

 

 

I understand the logic, but very few rookies (aside from lineman) are that productive their first season. I wouldn't just discredit WR.

A lot of mock drafts have the GT WR going at like 30th pick of round 1. I actually think that is a huge value that late. If I were a

team in need of WR, I could see him going as low as 15.

 

However, there are a TON of talented lineman in this draft!

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

this year, as most years, i would rather load up on RB's and wait on WR's. If your league starts 2 RB i think it really helps if you have 3 top 20 guys. This is, of course, based on your projections and not worrying about injuries. Injuries can happen anytime, to anyone at any position. Sure, RB's carry the most risk but i try not to worry about that when drafting. When comparing RB A to RB B, yes I will weigh injury risk but I'm not going to shy away from the position because it carries a higher risk for injury.

 

I just feel there are so many options out there at WR that when we get to the middle rounds of the draft, the owners who went WR/WR will be scrambling to find guaranteed RB production while i'll be snapping up the Julio Jones' of the fantasy world.

 

It's the draft strategy I have used pretty much my whole fantasy life before i even knew about VBD. I think I do it in a slightly different manner.

 

Basically you still have to tier your players or make projections or whatever it is you choose to do and you still have to aptly identify which players will shine in 2012 and which players to avoid. But assuming everything is equal, (all owners must start the same amount of players at each position and you're not in a league with 7 flex spots) the choice to draft one position over another comes down to the relative drop off in production at those positions.

 

Where I differ is that I think VBD would still tell you it's okay to take Megatron or Welker in round 1 because they outscore round two WR's by the same margin that Foster/McCoy outscore round two RB's.

 

I prefer to look at my starters by groups. Would I rather have a round 1 RB I think can score me 330, a round 2 RB I think can score me 260 (lets pretend i draft a QB round 3) and then 3 WR's in rounds 4-6 who I think are all capable of 230.

 

OR

 

Would I rather draft a round 1 WR capable of 330 (assuming a land THE top dog), a round 2 WR capable of 260 (again round 3 is a QB) and then RB's in rounds 4 and 5 who are in the 180 range with less job security?

[RedzoneMonster 102]

I understand the logic, but very few rookies (aside from lineman) are that productive their first season. I wouldn't just discredit WR.

A lot of mock drafts have the GT WR going at like 30th pick of round 1. I actually think that is a huge value that late. If I were a

team in need of WR, I could see him going as low as 15.

 

However, there are a TON of talented lineman in this draft!

 

Ummm.. I posted on FANTASY football today's message boards, right?...

[Matt Mueller 146]

this year, as most years, i would rather load up on RB's and wait on WR's. If your league starts 2 RB i think it really helps if you have 3 top 20 guys. This is, of course, based on your projections and not worrying about injuries. Injuries can happen anytime, to anyone at any position. Sure, RB's carry the most risk but i try not to worry about that when drafting. When comparing RB A to RB B, yes I will weigh injury risk but I'm not going to shy away from the position because it carries a higher risk for injury.

 

I just feel there are so many options out there at WR that when we get to the middle rounds of the draft, the owners who went WR/WR will be scrambling to find guaranteed RB production while i'll be snapping up the Julio Jones' of the fantasy world.

 

It's the draft strategy I have used pretty much my whole fantasy life before i even knew about VBD. I think I do it in a slightly different manner.

 

Basically you still have to tier your players or make projections or whatever it is you choose to do and you still have to aptly identify which players will shine in 2012 and which players to avoid. But assuming everything is equal, (all owners must start the same amount of players at each position and you're not in a league with 7 flex spots) the choice to draft one position over another comes down to the relative drop off in production at those positions.

 

Where I differ is that I think VBD would still tell you it's okay to take Megatron or Welker in round 1 because they outscore round two WR's by the same margin that Foster/McCoy outscore round two RB's.

 

I prefer to look at my starters by groups. Would I rather have a round 1 RB I think can score me 330, a round 2 RB I think can score me 260 (lets pretend i draft a QB round 3) and then 3 WR's in rounds 4-6 who I think are all capable of 230.

 

OR

 

Would I rather draft a round 1 WR capable of 330 (assuming a land THE top dog), a round 2 WR capable of 260 (again round 3 is a QB) and then RB's in rounds 4 and 5 who are in the 180 range with less job security?

 

[DrG 94]

Nice post, W.W.

 

There are 3-5 or so players at each position who are a cut above. If you are lucky, you get 2, but you need at least 1 to have a realistic shot at a title as well as a few 'lottery picks' go off. I 'feel' (no proof), that 'bell cow' RBS are more reliable. I never know when a star WR gets double-coverage or his buddy goes off, but I am reasonably certain that starting RBS will get their touches either when controlling the clock when their team is ahead, or catching dump-offs when they are behind.

 

I cannot advocate a one-size 'fits all'. I also had a year where due to crazy runs on RBS, wound up with Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks and Wes Welker. I try to zig when others zag, especially when outside the Top 5 draft positions, which seems to happen every year.