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Fumbleweed

**Draft Commentary: Rounds 11-16**

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Home stretch...it's been a fast-moving, great week for this draft. :thumbsup:

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Riceman's list that he sent me for his picks has been exhausted, but he should be online soon.

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David Wilson....opinions please. Picked on a hunch, along with Bradshaw's tendency to get dinged.

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Nice grab of Palmer. He was one of the players I was targeting in Round 11.

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bah, really wanted Brian quick in the 10th.

 

Me too.

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So far so good, I plotted my first few rounds and my last few ahead of time, and round 10 and 11 fell into place exactly as I planned; while the falling value in the first three allowed me to exceed my expectations.

 

I am interested to see if the plan I laid out for the final set of rounds plays out as I expect and the talent I target falls to me. :thumbsup:

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Do I need to go on my rant about taking a kicker before the last round?

 

I expect better from u Dan! :D

 

I love your rants, they give me that warm fuzzy feeling :wub:

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So far so good, I plotted my first few rounds and my last few ahead of time, and round 10 and 11 fell into place exactly as I planned

 

 

You really had to plan ahead to get the D you wanted in the 10th? It's probably the safest bet in the history of ever that you'll take the first D in the June Mock.

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You really had to plan ahead to get the D you wanted in the 10th? It's probably the safest bet in the history of ever that you'll take the first D in the June Mock.

 

This draft is practice for me. I plot every draft. I create a plan that includes contingencies for shifting my picks.

 

I find that it allows me a more clear view of what I want to do. I spend less time looking over lists, and more time simply considering one or two options vs what I wanted to target.

 

So yeah, I planned for a defense in round 10, knowing that while everyone else was grabbing a backup QB or a TE or maybe some pedestrian WR. By way of example, Laurent Robinson was taken at 11.02, and in 2011 put up 212.8 fantasy points in a given league, in the same league the niners defense put up 258 fantasy points.

 

I then need to decide if Laurent Robinson is available, do I think he can step forward in a dramatic way to not merely outscore the niners defense, but outscore them as my #4 WR in such a way as to make me want him more than a defense that I must start? So say I take Robinson there and pass on the niners defense, and end up with the next best defense in the next round, at about 250 fantasy points, its not a big hit so long as the next best defense plays up to par and Robinson plays a little bit better.

 

So do I take the best defense available at a position I must start, or spend the pick on a player who may start two or three times for me? I go best player available and fill the spot, and still have a chance at 198 fantasy points for an occasional starter at WR in the very next round. JMHO

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This draft is practice for me. I plot every draft. I create a plan that includes contingencies for shifting my picks.

 

I find that it allows me a more clear view of what I want to do. I spend less time looking over lists, and more time simply considering one or two options vs what I wanted to target.

 

So yeah, I planned for a defense in round 10, knowing that while everyone else was grabbing a backup QB or a TE or maybe some pedestrian WR. By way of example, Laurent Robinson was taken at 11.02, and in 2011 put up 212.8 fantasy points in a given league, in the same league the niners defense put up 258 fantasy points.

 

I then need to decide if Laurent Robinson is available, do I think he can step forward in a dramatic way to not merely outscore the niners defense, but outscore them as my #4 WR in such a way as to make me want him more than a defense that I must start? So say I take Robinson there and pass on the niners defense, and end up with the next best defense in the next round, at about 250 fantasy points, its not a big hit so long as the next best defense plays up to par and Robinson plays a little bit better.

 

So do I take the best defense available at a position I must start, or spend the pick on a player who may start two or three times for me? I go best player available and fill the spot, and still have a chance at 198 fantasy points for an occasional starter at WR in the very next round. JMHO

 

Wasn't a comment on the planning part, but specifically planning to take a DST in this mock. I understand your numbers for Robinson/SF are from another league but that really doesn't apply here. SF scored 20pts TOTAL for the entire 2011 season in No Hassle. If you execute a draft plan here for another scoring system aren't you kind of doing the rest of us a diservice. :dunno:

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Schaub/Freeman

 

It was time to take my QBs. Back in the 10th I actually liked Fitzpatrick, Schaub, Palmer and Freeman on this tier in that order. In trying to get two of these guys I new Schaub would have the least chance of getting back to me in the 11th but thought Fitz had a decent chance. So took Schaub in the 10th and almost got Fitz but RC plucked him just in front of me. So Freeman it is. I contemplated holding off for another round on my backup but saw that all the other guys around this next turn all need backups so that made up my mind. Plus there was really no other position player out there that I had to have.

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Wasn't a comment on the planning part, but specifically planning to take a DST in this mock. I understand your numbers for Robinson/SF are from another league but that really doesn't apply here. SF scored 20pts TOTAL for the entire 2011 season in No Hassle. If you execute a draft plan here for another scoring system aren't you kind of doing the rest of us a diservice. :dunno:

 

As i stated earlier by way of example so that scoring system was an example of how might approach that same scenario here. I would no more comment on my specific plan as to the draft than I would an as yet unpicked player; hence my reference to Robinson.

 

My selection of a defense in round 10 is based on specific historical instances, as some have already noted. I am aware that I fare better in this format with a better defense vs a 4th WR that can be found in this area. The Niner's defense will provide a top 3 value at a spot that I must essentially "start" every week. Robinson would provide value perhaps two, maybe three weeks during the season, if I am lucky.

 

Given the value available in round 10, and the inclination toward people picking TE's, 4th RB's and WR's, I am inclined to buck "trends" such as that in the 10th, and instead ensure I take value at the start of the run. Could I have obtained the niner's def in round 11, perhaps yes, but I was not willing to gamble on that potential in order to take a player who may or may not be able to outscore the opportunities to be found later.

 

The approach seems to work rather well year after year, my design seems to put up decent production within the scoring system.

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A Patriot, Dan?? Have I taught you nothing... :ninja:

 

Indeed, indeed . . . but remember . . .

 

I am married to a Patriots' fan.

 

Sometimes politics DO come into play.

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Nice pick of Andy Dalton. I was really hoping he'd fall to the next round for me. Oops.

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I am aware that I fare better in this format with a better defense vs a 4th WR that can be found in this area. The Niner's defense will provide a top 3 value at a spot that I must essentially "start" every week. Robinson would provide value perhaps two, maybe three weeks during the season, if I am lucky.

Here's where you lose me.

 

You do realize SF finished 15th in No Hassle last year right? That they scored ZERO points 13 out of 16 weeks in 2011, which would be the same score as the last DST taken, zero. The top DST last year scored ZERO in 10 out of 16 weeks. So IMO you could have taken the 12th best DST in the last round and still got the same production +/- one week of non-zero. Using Robinson as the continued example, I'm fairly confident he'd outscore a WR taken in the 16th more than 1 week.

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Here's where you lose me.

 

You do realize SF finished 15th in No Hassle last year right? That they scored ZERO points 13 out of 16 weeks in 2011, which would be the same score as the last DST taken, zero. The top DST last year scored ZERO in 10 out of 16 weeks. So IMO you could have taken the 12th best DST in the last round and still got the same production +/- one week of non-zero. Using Robinson as the continued example, I'm fairly confident he'd outscore a WR taken in the 16th more than 1 week.

....and your point is??

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....and your point is??

 

1.) SF is not a top 3 DST in this format

2.) There's no difference between DST #4-12; they all score zero pts 13 out of 16 weeks

3.) Even the top 3 DSTs only outscore there rest on 1 or 2 weeks

4.) A position player taken in the 10th will outscore one from the same position taken in the 16th a lot more than 1 or 2 weeks

5.) I don't agree with Ray's plan to take a DST early :dunno:

 

 

 

But what do I know, I've never even stiffed the top 3 in No Hassle :cry:

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JScott is right...for what it's worth. Ray is Ray. He's had plenty of success in this draft/league, so I'm certainly cool with his oddities.

 

On a different note, anybody seen Matt's Eagles today? I don't have a list from him...

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JScott is right...for what it's worth. Ray is Ray. He's had plenty of success in this draft/league, so I'm certainly cool with his oddities.

 

On a different note, anybody seen Matt's Eagles today? I don't have a list from him...

 

He's probably dealing with shock. This is advertised as a two-week draft, not a two day draft.

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JScott is right...for what it's worth. Ray is Ray. He's had plenty of success in this draft/league, so I'm certainly cool with his oddities.

 

On a different note, anybody seen Matt's Eagles today? I don't have a list from him...

 

 

Yep, I may disagree with it but it certainly isn't some kind of death wish for his team. And it's become a nostalgic part of the June Mock. :thumbsup:

 

 

Nope, haven't noticed him online.

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1.) SF is not a top 3 DST in this format

2.) There's no difference between DST #4-12; they all score zero pts 13 out of 16 weeks

3.) Even the top 3 DSTs only outscore there rest on 1 or 2 weeks

4.) A position player taken in the 10th will outscore one from the same position taken in the 16th a lot more than 1 or 2 weeks

5.) I don't agree with Ray's plan to take a DST early :dunno:

 

 

 

But what do I know, I've never even stiffed the top 3 in No Hassle :cry:

.....and my post was an attempt at humor

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.....and my post was an attempt at humor

 

Oh :dumbjim:

 

 

 

 

 

:D

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1.) SF is not a top 3 DST in this format

2.) There's no difference between DST #4-12; they all score zero pts 13 out of 16 weeks

3.) Even the top 3 DSTs only outscore there rest on 1 or 2 weeks

4.) A position player taken in the 10th will outscore one from the same position taken in the 16th a lot more than 1 or 2 weeks

5.) I don't agree with Ray's plan to take a DST early :dunno:

 

 

 

But what do I know, I've never even stiffed the top 3 in No Hassle :cry:

 

 

Well if you believe that will hold true again this year, you should be using the same draft list every year, with no change. :lol:

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Well if you believe that will hold true again this year, you should be using the same draft list every year, with no change. :lol:

 

DST scoring is primarily luck since it's only TDs and Safeties. As good as SF is you can't honestly say with any confidence they'll suddenly score 5 or 6 TDs this season. They're mostly special teams (kick or punt returns) and we all saw how good SF was in that area in the playoffs :rolleyes:

 

The teams with the good returners or ballhawking secondaries are who score. SF is not one of these, year and and year out.

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DST scoring is primarily luck since it's only TDs and Safeties. As good as SF is you can't honestly say with any confidence they'll suddenly score 5 or 6 TDs this season. They're mostly special teams (kick or punt returns) and we all saw how good SF was in that area in the playoffs :rolleyes:

 

The teams with the good returners or ballhawking secondaries are who score. SF is not one of these, year and and year out.

 

Actually, fantasy football is mostly luck, so yes I agree that luck is a major force here. I think SF will produce big points this year, even in this format. But its fun to talk about more specific's like this, not too often we get to talk about the minutia of this hobby! Good to jibber-jabber with you as always!

 

:cheers:

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I had Matt Schaub typed in at 9.10, but gambled that I'd get a good QB2 here.

 

The QB2 run went sooner than I thought. Flacco is about the last on my list that I'd prefer.

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I think SF will produce big points this year

Fair enough

 

But its fun to talk about more specific's like this, not too often we get to talk about the minutia of this hobby! Good to jibber-jabber with you as always!

:cheers:

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As a SF homer, my opinion is that yes, SF will produce bigger fantasy numbers than previous years.

 

But the problem is, everyone is going to get some.

Gore, RB2, RB3, Crabtree, Moss, WR2, WR3, WR4 (Yes, Moss is WR5 to most SF fans)

 

Which will bring up the issue of no one actually being fantasy relavant this whole season.

 

JMHO.

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As a SF homer, my opinion is that yes, SF will produce bigger fantasy numbers than previous years.

 

But the problem is, everyone is going to get some.

Gore, RB2, RB3, Crabtree, Moss, WR2, WR3, WR4 (Yes, Moss is WR5 to most SF fans)

 

Which will bring up the issue of no one actually being fantasy relavant this whole season.

 

JMHO.

Noted

 

But Ray and I were discussing the SF DST in this format.

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Any defense before the last 2 rounds in this format is a throw away pick, even if you do get the best defense.

 

Any positional player might not "start" but is much more valuable as an injury fill in or bye weeks or just that occasion they blow up.

 

Jscott has it.

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Noted

 

But Ray and I were discussing the SF DST in this format.

 

Like I read other people's comments. pshhh..

 

 

 

(sorry, I just read the previous post where you quoted RLLD)

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Like I read other people's comments. pshhh..

 

 

 

(sorry, I just read the previous post where you quoted RLLD)

 

:lol:

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