What are people doing at the dreaded 4 spot?

[steel827 2]

I'm figuring Foster, McCoy and Rice are gone. I am not a huge fan of drafting a QB that high. The quality of RBs that I think will come back to me is really scary bad. I've been thinking of CJIII there with a bounceback year (no holdout and not fat). Non-PPR league. The safe pick seems to be Rodgers, but I look to take 30% off of last years numbers. I have found that when players have an off the charts season compared to their norm, the next year really reflects that. Brady, Manning, LT2, LJ and even Alexander were never able to approach their record setting years. I down grade Mega as well by 30%. I also think I can still get a quality QB in round 2.

 

Any suggestions?

[JtmoneyJag 25]

I'm figuring Foster, McCoy and Rice are gone. I am not a huge fan of drafting a QB that high. The quality of RBs that I think will come back to me is really scary bad. I've been thinking of CJIII there with a bounceback year (no holdout and not fat). Non-PPR league. The safe pick seems to be Rodgers, but I look to take 30% off of last years numbers. I have found that when players have an off the charts season compared to their norm, the next year really reflects that. Brady, Manning, LT2, LJ and even Alexander were never able to approach their record setting years. I down grade Mega as well by 30%. I also think I can still get a quality QB in round 2.

 

Any suggestions?

 

To me, and this is just my opinion, I think you go Chris J or DMC. I honestly like DMC better but took CJ in my last draft because of injury concerns. People may say that is too high for DMC, but if healthy he will be top 5, maybe top 3. That is what you want in a top pick. I agree on AR and Calvin J, I would go RB.

[Brownsfan21 1]

To me, and this is just my opinion, I think you go Chris J or DMC. I honestly like DMC better but took CJ in my last draft because of injury concerns. People may say that is too high for DMC, but if healthy he will be top 5, maybe top 3. That is what you want in a top pick. I agree on AR and Calvin J, I would go RB.

 

I would go with best available and A Rodgers would have to be the pick. I am the minority here but i could not let personally let him slip by after those top backs are gone.

[PackYourNut 47]

Dreaded 4th? Try picking 10th!

[mgs316 14]

Even if Rodgers. Brady, or Brees drops back to the mid to high 30's they are still giving you a boat load of points each and every week and might win you some weeks by themselves.

 

I'll take the semi guaranteed output vs. roll the dice RB's any day. I'm good at getting late round RB production so I don't worry about not taking a RB.

[stonewall 647]

Unless one of the "Big-3" RB's drops, gotta grab Rodgers......and don't look back.

[thePRO 78]

I would love the 4 spot. My league is QB heavy and the people are QB draft happy and I guarantee 1 QB will be taken in the first 3 picks. So I'll grab..most llikely Rice. Works for me.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Rodgers or Megatron. I know you don't like it (I wouldn't either), but your options are to land the top guy at one important position or get the best of the rest at another position. You gotta go with the guy who's in his own tier (Megatron) or offers guaranteed elite production and a very very good chance at finishing #1 in his position (Rodgers) instead of a huge question mark like CJ or DMC.

 

Personally I would go with Rodgers, since WR is so deep this year.

[PistonSteve 0]

Hmm...the way Andrew Luck is playing today...

 

[Almadenbass 0]

Hmm...the way Andrew Luck is playing today...

 

 

 

Yeah look at that stanford dude go

[Busted by the Feds 9]

Dreaded 4th? Try picking 10th!

 

I know this is not conventional thinking, but if you must end up with the best or one of the best players at his position and RB, QB or Megatron are gone, I'd have to go with Gronk or Jimmy Graham as one of my two back to back at the 10 spot (in a 10 team league, for example) .

[spicemind 0]

I'm figuring Foster, McCoy and Rice are gone. I am not a huge fan of drafting a QB that high. The quality of RBs that I think will come back to me is really scary bad. I've been thinking of CJIII there with a bounceback year (no holdout and not fat). Non-PPR league. The safe pick seems to be Rodgers, but I look to take 30% off of last years numbers. I have found that when players have an off the charts season compared to their norm, the next year really reflects that. Brady, Manning, LT2, LJ and even Alexander were never able to approach their record setting years. I down grade Mega as well by 30%. I also think I can still get a quality QB in round 2.

 

Any suggestions?

 

I would take Rodgers, Brady, or Brees. Assuming the 3 "elite" RBs are gone, you are now already at a disadvantage at RB. One of the next tier of RBs "could" jump into the top 3, so why not take a player who is already considered in the top tier at a different position? You can do that with one of the big 3 QBs. Just as you will have to make up the point differential between his RB1 and your RB1, he will have to make up the point differential between your QB and his QB.

[Buffalo Rob 0]

Definitely have to go Rodgers in that case. I think Rice, Foster, Mccoy, Rodgers, and Brady are the top 5 picks withouot a doubt. Im more dreading the 6-10 spots this year. I'll be tempted to snag Brees or Stafford if available at those spots because that second tier of RB's are so close to eachother.

[steel827 2]

I would take Rodgers, Brady, or Brees. Assuming the 3 "elite" RBs are gone, you are now already at a disadvantage at RB. One of the next tier of RBs "could" jump into the top 3, so why not take a player who is already considered in the top tier at a different position? You can do that with one of the big 3 QBs. Just as you will have to make up the point differential between his RB1 and your RB1, he will have to make up the point differential between your QB and his QB.

 

You make a very good point that I never considered. I am at a disadvantage at RB. If I take CJ3 and get a lower high level QB, I am now at a disadvantage to those picking after me in 2 positions. I got so hung up on discounting Rodgers' last year that I did not think it all the way through. I tend to handicap the draft like horse racing. When a horse is running speed Beyers consistently then explodes much like Rodgers and Mega, they tend to bounce the next time out and revert back to their normal form. Obviously, there are exceptions and the fact that Rodgers only has 4 years under his belt, he may be still improving.

 

I've been torturing myself with this craziness since 2005. It doesn't ever get any easier.

[Moemoney 8]

I have the 4th spot as well and have been heavily considering CJ2k, but the more I think about it the more I realize I have to go Rodgers. As much as I think that CJ will be solid thi year he is still a major gamble at the 4 spot. AR is the safest pick and I'm not willing to gamble at the 4 spot. It also helps that it's a 2QB league making a top QB that much more valuable.

[hoydogg 3]

I drafted #4 in a 10 team mock last night, and was able to get Rice.

[The Moz 69]

NON PPR I take CJ in PPR I think you have to take Megatron - curse or not. Just know if you take Mega and try to flip him you will NOT get 1.4 value for him as folks are skeered off about the curse. If you take Mega plan on havig him on your team -- just go RB -RB your next 2 picks

 

Picking Mega you could still have a 1-2-3 round start of Mega , Murray , F/S-jax

[DexterMorgan 5]

Dreaded 4 spot? I'd kill to be in the 4th spot instead of 12

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Wish the guy who has the dreaded 4 spot would trade with the guy with the last spot.

[ralphster 274]

Wish the guy who has the dreaded 4 spot would trade with the guy with the last spot.

 

Right? Oh me oh my, 4th spot, only Calvin/Rodgers left to choose from!

[420allstars 13]

Aaron Rodgers and its very easy IMO.. The most consistant player in Fanatasy Football and thats what a first round pick should be.. if I had the choice I may actually bypass the big 3 RB's and pick from the 4 spot. There is too much injury rick with anyone whos going to hit the line and end up in a pile of bodys 10-20 times a game..

[DexterMorgan 5]

Aaron Rodgers and its very easy IMO.. The most consistant player in Fanatasy Football and thats what a first round pick should be.. if I had the choice I may actually bypass the big 3 RB's and pick from the 4 spot. There is too much injury rick with anyone whos going to hit the line and end up in a pile of bodys 10-20 times a game..

 

yup, your pick is already made for you. It's either Rodgers or the 1 RB that falls.

[ppierce 2]

would you still take Rogers if qbs are only worth 4 pts for td's and its a .5 ppr league?

[aaaa 0]

I'm at 4 in a standard 10 teamer. I know Rodgers is the safe pick, but I must get RBs to be competitive. I cant survive with demarco Murray or Jamal Charles as my RB1, so it's gotta be a top 3 RB if they fall or CJ2K at 4.

 

Is this insane? Someone talk me out of it. I hate overpaying but it seems like the only way if I want a solid RB group.

[DexterMorgan 5]

I'm at 4 in a standard 10 teamer. I know Rodgers is the safe pick, but I must get RBs to be competitive. I cant survive with demarco Murray or Jamal Charles as my RB1, so it's gotta be a top 3 RB if they fall or CJ2K at 4.

 

Is this insane? Someone talk me out of it. I hate overpaying but it seems like the only way if I want a solid RB group.

 

Take Rodgers.

[aaaa 0]

Why should I take Rodgers at 4 when I can get a guy like Schaub much much later.

[ralphster 274]

Why should I take Rodgers at 4 when I can get a guy like Schaub much much later.

 

No offense aaaa, but if you're asking that seriously I'd suggest taking a long look at everything you can find on value based drafting and QB points per game average over the last 2-3 years. Rodgers > Schaub to the tune of 200+ points last year. And he's been doing it the last 5 years straight whereas Schaub was only truly good in 2009.

 

http://www.fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2011&GameWeek=&PosID=10&LeagueID=1

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Rodgers or Brady.

[420allstars 13]

No offense aaaa, but if you're asking that seriously I'd suggest taking a long look at everything you can find on value based drafting and QB points per game average over the last 2-3 years. Rodgers > Schaub to the tune of 200+ points last year. And he's been doing it the last 5 years straight whereas Schaub was only truly good in 2009.

 

http://www.fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2011&GameWeek=&PosID=10&LeagueID=1

 

well said

[12th Place 2]

Rodgers. If for nothing else, just to do the "Discount Double Check" everytime he throws a TD!

[steelers2101 7]

I would take Rodgers, Brady, or Brees. Assuming the 3 "elite" RBs are gone, you are now already at a disadvantage at RB. One of the next tier of RBs "could" jump into the top 3, so why not take a player who is already considered in the top tier at a different position? You can do that with one of the big 3 QBs. Just as you will have to make up the point differential between his RB1 and your RB1, he will have to make up the point differential between your QB and his QB.

 

This is the correct answer and logic.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I'm at 4 in a standard 10 teamer. I know Rodgers is the safe pick, but I must get RBs to be competitive. I cant survive with demarco Murray or Jamal Charles as my RB1, so it's gotta be a top 3 RB if they fall or CJ2K at 4.

 

Is this insane? Someone talk me out of it. I hate overpaying but it seems like the only way if I want a solid RB group.

 

 

Why should I take Rodgers at 4 when I can get a guy like Schaub much much later.

I really hope you are in my big money league and just using a different alias aaaa. Every time I mock and someone takes Murray in the first round I end up with some very good talent at the 10 spot (Calvin and Brees twice, but that's not going to really happen).

 

I think that you are being sarcastic with your Shaub comment and I hope so for your team's sake. Like Ralphster said there was a 200 point difference between the two passers. Not to mention how injury prone Shaub has been over his career, and how run oriented the Texans are. Plus their only WR really worth anything is made of glass with a few injuries notorious for lingering.

[Fantasy Noob 10]

I go with Rodgers, Calvin Johnson or Tom Brady who are clearly the remaining elite players.

 

One problem with going with QB early you need to go RB heavy in the 4th-7th rounds on longshot upside guys and later in the drafts and you need to hit on one of them.

 

This creates a bit of a conundrum in that yes WR is deep but much of that value looks to be in the 5th-8th rounds where you would be targeting RB's. Personally I am not a big fan of several of the top WR's listed in the top 10 or the second tier of RB's but by selecting QB early you are going to be forced to pick from this group in rounds 2 and 3. I am guessing you will be forced to take a Mathews/MJD/SJax as your lead RB in the 2nd.

 

There are some significant changes to your draft style if you go QB early that you need to be ready for so you should definitely go do several mock drafts and see how you like this team. If you do go with a QB early your TE position will probably suffer as well, since you are loading up on RB prospects and taking WR value as it appears you just wont get a chance to pick a TE till 10th round or later.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I'm at 4 in a standard 10 teamer. I know Rodgers is the safe pick, but I must get RBs to be competitive. I cant survive with demarco Murray or Jamal Charles as my RB1, so it's gotta be a top 3 RB if they fall or CJ2K at 4.

 

Is this insane? Someone talk me out of it. I hate overpaying but it seems like the only way if I want a solid RB group.

 

CJ2K is not a sure thing. Remember how much he sucked for most of last year? Personally I think he is only a little bit better of an option than Charles or Murray.

[aaaa 0]

The Schaub comment was definitely a joke, should have added a smiley lol.

 

I'm starting to back off the thought that I must take an RB in round 1. Whoever made the point that I'm already at a disadvantage with RBs, so I should take someone who gives me an edge at a different position really got through to me.

 

So now my question is this: I'm in talks to swap picks 4 and 17 for 5 and 16. Do I still need to follow the logic above and take Brady or Brees at 5? Or is it acceptable to take CJ2K there since those QBs aren't quite as ahead of the pack as Rodgers.

 

I realize that its the smart and safe pick to go QB, but I just hate the idea. Should I try to trade down to 6 or 7 or am I just being a silly goose who should shut up and be happy with Rodgers?

[IRBIR 0]

The Schaub comment was definitely a joke, should have added a smiley lol.

 

I'm starting to back off the thought that I must take an RB in round 1. Whoever made the point that I'm already at a disadvantage with RBs, so I should take someone who gives me an edge at a different position really got through to me.

 

So now my question is this: I'm in talks to swap picks 4 and 17 for 5 and 16. Do I still need to follow the logic above and take Brady or Brees at 5? Or is it acceptable to take CJ2K there since those QBs aren't quite as ahead of the pack as Rodgers.

 

I realize that its the smart and safe pick to go QB, but I just hate the idea. Should I try to trade down to 6 or 7 or am I just being a silly goose who should shut up and be happy with Rodgers?

 

Stop with the CJ2K stuff. Why take a player you are HOPING bounces back vs. one that is in the prime of his career?? Take a deep breath, step back from the edge and take Rodgers. Enough already!

[Ace08 11]

"Dreaded" 4th spot? If I could get a guarantee right now from the fantasy gods that I would get the 4th pick I'd take it in a heartbeat.

 

Calvin is the answer you're looking for. Especially if your league is PPR where you really shouldn't even be thinking twice about it.

[Raider 84 29]

McFadden, tonight was a glimpse of what is to come. My other two choices are Megatron and Rodgers.

[spicemind 0]

The Schaub comment was definitely a joke, should have added a smiley lol.

 

I'm starting to back off the thought that I must take an RB in round 1. Whoever made the point that I'm already at a disadvantage with RBs, so I should take someone who gives me an edge at a different position really got through to me.

 

So now my question is this: I'm in talks to swap picks 4 and 17 for 5 and 16. Do I still need to follow the logic above and take Brady or Brees at 5? Or is it acceptable to take CJ2K there since those QBs aren't quite as ahead of the pack as Rodgers.

 

I realize that its the smart and safe pick to go QB, but I just hate the idea. Should I try to trade down to 6 or 7 or am I just being a silly goose who should shut up and be happy with Rodgers?

 

In my league last year (6pt passing TDs, 25 pass yds/pt), here are the top 6 scorers at QB:

487.42 - Rodgers

483.64 - Brees

444.30 - Brady

425.32 - Stafford

411.44 - Newton

338.82 - E. Manning

 

And here were the 6 RBs that scored in close proximity to CJ2K (PPR, 15 rec yds/pt). CJ2K finished as the #10 RB in my league:

221.43 - Mathews

212.70 - S. Jackson

211.57 - C. Johnson

209.33 - R. Bush

208.57 - M. Bush

204.37 - M. Forte

 

To me, there is enough of a discrepancy between the top 3-4 QBs and a tier 2 QB to justify taking one at pick 4, 5, or 6 over CJ2K.

 

As for whether or not you should trade back to 5, 6, etc. there is no correct answer. Personally, the lowest I would trade down to would be #6 to guarantee myself one of Foster, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers, Brady, Brees.

[aaaa 0]

In my league last year (6pt passing TDs, 25 pass yds/pt), here are the top 6 scorers at QB:

487.42 - Rodgers

483.64 - Brees

444.30 - Brady

425.32 - Stafford

411.44 - Newton

338.82 - E. Manning

 

And here were the 6 RBs that scored in close proximity to CJ2K (PPR, 15 rec yds/pt). CJ2K finished as the #10 RB in my league:

221.43 - Mathews

212.70 - S. Jackson

211.57 - C. Johnson

209.33 - R. Bush

208.57 - M. Bush

204.37 - M. Forte

 

To me, there is enough of a discrepancy between the top 3-4 QBs and a tier 2 QB to justify taking one at pick 4, 5, or 6 over CJ2K.

 

As for whether or not you should trade back to 5, 6, etc. there is no correct answer. Personally, the lowest I would trade down to would be #6 to guarantee myself one of Foster, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers, Brady, Brees.

 

/thread