Breaking out of fantasy mediocrity

[Fantasy Noob 10]

I feel your pain. I have been in a similar boat the last three years, consistently making the playoffs and a handful of championship games but only 1 league title in last three years across 18 or so leagues. I find myself burning out on FF as the season goes on with 5 or more teams each year its a lot of inseason management. I also get somewhat set in my roster lineup, with my thought process being these are they guys that got me there and they can get "hot" too right?

 

My waiver wire activity and attention/hunger for the next hot player fades as the season progresses and my (few) truly strong/juggernaut teams never seem to be able to get high enough waiver priority to grab that late season gem. I notice that a lot of my competitive leagues championships feature a lot of late season/hot players on teams that just squeaked into the playoffs and alot of these lower seeded teams seem to pull off an "upset" at a pretty high/consistent rate.

 

The roster decisions and chances in the last few weeks and during the playoffs are maginified and I myself don't show the proper discipline combined with risk taking or at least this is my justification/theory of the problem. I find it difficult to put in Mike Goodson and sit one of my main RB's that got me there just because of matchup or a late season surge by Goodson. I am more content losing with my guys than taking a chance and seeing one of my guys go off on the bench while I stupidly started the waiver wire wonder RB in my playoff/championship game.

 

This is my best guess of my recent FF skid hope it helps.

[DrG 103]

If you know your league you will have an idea about which players might be targeting the same player you are.

 

I also generally try to avoid picking at the end of a run.

[PackYourNut 47]

Study some dynasty drafts and boards... They will give you insight into picking the correct sleepers... Often times you will find young guys that arent playing full time ranked highly. Which means they just need an opportunity. stash those guys away and if an injury occurs or if they outplay the veteran, you are golden.

[DrG 103]

The line between success and failure is razor thin

[killersquids 3]

I think a big difference is time and effort during the season. If you put enough time and energy in, you are more likely to find that waiver wire gem a week early. You are more likely to make a trade if you initiate them by spotting weaknesses in other teams where a trade benefits both teams. With FF now a days, it's the little things that matter.

 

In my league, there is a clear correlation between the commissioner and success. Three guys have been commissioner over our 12 years, and each time whoever the commish is, has done extremely well. I think this has to do with how often they are on the site and in tune with the rest of the league....it goes along with my point of time and energy DURING the season.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Here's a great article i came across on this very topic called The Four Noble Truths of Fantasy Football by Davis Mattek:

 

http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/06/the-four-noble-truths-of-fantasy-football/

 

While there are a few minor things I'd take issue with, I wish I had written it! Or better yet, actually practiced it.

[NorthernVike 2,086]

 

Better to reach a round for someone you love

 

 

It's always better to give a reacharound than recive one.

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ Hahaha

[LSUtiger 9]

This thread has been a great read and it's comforting to know others have been experiencing the same decline in dominance over our respective leagues that I have in the last few years. I think it's a combination of factors, mainly of which being the widely acccessible information available to all players nowadays but, also, the diversity in scoring in the NFL today. Back in the Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, LT heydays you had a solid 15-18 "bell cow" starting RBs who you could rely upon in building your team around and providing you with 15-20 pts per week on average. Now what do we have? 3-4 stud RBs MAX (AD, Foster...Lynch? Rice?...?) The change in NFL rules has also made the league pass-happy which devalues the stud RB in favor of RBBC's and has made predicting scoring week-to-week much more difficult. This means if you don't have one of those 3-4 stud RBs, you can't reasonably rely on getting 15 points from your RB1 every week. Instead, you're getting something like 8, 14, 9, 26, etc. The rule changes have also made the WR position much more important. That's not even getting into the rise of the TE position as an elite scoring option week to week that evens the playing field for teams with weak RBs/WRs but an elite TE like Graham or Gronk.

 

Ultimately, I blame the diversity in scoring and shift of the NFL from run-oriented to pass happy for the increased difficulty in fantasy we're experiencing. It's a lot tougher nowadays to lock up studs at each position, especially RB. Now you have 10-12 QBs who are all relatively even, same for WRs after the first 2-3 and RBs after the first 3-4. That leads to tremendous parity week to week in fantasy scoring and, thus, your ability to dominate your league.

 

Just my opinion.

 

In terms of getting that edge, really the only way to do it is acquire as much knowledge pre-draft as you can so you can grab players you really like before others do and snatch up the key sleepers who will emerge over the second half of the season to give your team that boost it needs for the final kick of the race...

 

Bring on August!

[LSUtiger 9]

Here's a great article i came across on this very topic called The Four Noble Truths of Fantasy Football by Davis Mattek:

 

http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/06/the-four-noble-truths-of-fantasy-football/

 

While there are a few minor things I'd take issue with, I wish I had written it! Or better yet, actually practiced it.

That's a premium site - is it worth the money?

[madd futher mucker 36]

The link was posted elsewhere for free by the the author himself. But at only $1 for the day pass to rotoviz, you can spend a full day reading their excellent ff content and articles. I can think of lots worse ways to spend a Saturday afternoon.

 

I personally wouldn't pay for their one month deal ($10) or the $30 a year annual subscription price. I do a lot of fantasy football reading and I'm into free content whenever possible.

[AlSwearengen 0]

Just found that site and would agree for a buck it's pretty fun to play with the RotoViz apps.II Had some recent article too about How To Lose a Draft in 10 Picks which had a lot of info and kind of a different slant on things.

 

They put out a lot of content but not much garbage. So that's nice. Don't have to wade through a lot of trash to find something that might help you win.

 

I'm going sabermetric-style this year after watching my Royals keep proving that math works (by sucking) - not sure if Dayton Moore can add. If it's good enough for the Devil Rays ...

[DrG 103]

One other tip: go ahead and read Matthew berry but don't take him too seriously

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Winning FF is not luck, but you do need a bit of luck to win a championship. The times I have won were mainly because of late round draft picks that really panned out or the top teams in the league got knocked out in the playoff before I faced them. I have seen more #1 seeds not make to the final than I have seen win the final.

[madd futher mucker 36]

One other tip: go ahead and read Matthew berry but don't take him too seriously

Sorry, I gave up reading anything by Matthew Berry years ago. Reason: I have seldom if ever found anything he wrote to be beneficial to fantasy success or even worth my time reading.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

Sorry, I gave up reading anything by Matthew Berry years ago. Reason: I have seldom if ever found anything he wrote to be beneficial to fantasy success or even worth my time reading.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Sorry, I gave up reading anything by Matthew Berry years ago. Reason: I have seldom if ever found anything he wrote to be beneficial to fantasy success or even worth my time reading.

 

Berry is the biggest clown in the industry. I was laughing pretty hard when that 'Go all in to draft Vick and Gates' strategy back fired in 2011.

[CSWR 0]

It really boils down to who you're playing against and even such things as your playoff configuration. Then there is the ever-present luck factor which looms much larger than most of us would like to admit. Even then, if you're in a 12-team league with all average players, that stats say that you will win once every 12 years!

 

If you're in a league with lots of top-notch players, then you're going to get blasted if you're not on your A-game from the draft to the regular season. If you're in this situation then you're only option is to prepare and manage as well or better than the other guys in your league. If you don't think you're going to be relying on luck.

 

If you're in a league with say a 6-team playoff configuration then even if you make the playoffs it's almost a crapshoot from that point forward, and you'd win roughly 1 out of every 6 years. That's why in my leagues I try to stick to a 4-team playoff because it is more likely that the top owners will win the Championship.

 

When you boil it all down, you have to be on your A game each and every year (from the draft to the championship) and over the long-haul that stats say that you will win more Championships than your competetors. Sure every few seasons a dark-horse that gets lucky will win it all, but over many seasons the best teams should have the most Championships.

[ralphster 274]

Ralphster's Keys to Satisfaction and Victory (or at least what helped me win last year):

 

Be informed! Stay plugged in to multiple sites and read them all the time. Your opponents are reading FF related info all the time (like right now on their phones when they should be doing other things). It behooves you to do the same. <- This is likely the best advice I can give. It will help you identify draft surges and values as well as WW adds you should keep an eye on.

 

Know your shiz before you draft. If possible know the people you're drafting with and their proclivities. Know who you want and when you're willing to take them and rely upon your gut instead of some ADP list from fantasyfockface.com - leagues are won with smart drafting early and late round gems.

 

After the draft assess your team's strengths and weaknesses. Keep an eye on other teams who are likely trade candidates and makes moves accordingly. (sidebar: don't begin your trade offers with a lowball 'starter' offer, bring value to the table)

 

When the season starts stick with your guys*. Too often I've made eleventh hour changes that hurt. Lurking in the Help Board on Sunday mornings is fun, but knowing your lineup on Wednesday night is much more satisfying. You will be wrong at times, and that's ok. Ask yourself if you'd rather lose with Tony G or chase the possibility that Myers will catch that garbage time TD to put you over. I'd rather start the guys I drafted to play than agonize on Sunday morning.

 

*Don't be afraid to move your studs to address team needs. Most guys I know fall in love with their players before/during/after the draft and then won't move them despite team suffering. If you lucked out and picked up Wilson from the WW last year and didn't trade him for the RB or WR that you needed you'll be posting in this thread soon. Julio Jones is a great example of the 'nope can't touch him man crush'. I'll trade anyone on my team if it means the team puts up more points.

 

Focus on getting to the playoffs first. Make it there and the rest is a crapshoot.

 

Lose with class and win with dignity. Respect your league mates. Drink many beers. Remember this is what we do for fun

[DrG 103]

MADD, I should of been less subtle - he's o ccasionally funny, but he is the Mel kipper of fantasy football his advice sucks

[jaxjag 43]

Ralphster's Keys to Satisfaction and Victory (or at least what helped me win last year):

 

Be informed! Stay plugged in to multiple sites and read them all the time. Your opponents are reading FF related info all the time (like right now on their phones when they should be doing other things). It behooves you to do the same. <- This is likely the best advice I can give. It will help you identify draft surges and values as well as WW adds you should keep an eye on.

 

Know your shiz before you draft. If possible know the people you're drafting with and their proclivities. Know who you want and when you're willing to take them and rely upon your gut instead of some ADP list from fantasyfockface.com - leagues are won with smart drafting early and late round gems.

 

After the draft assess your team's strengths and weaknesses. Keep an eye on other teams who are likely trade candidates and makes moves accordingly. (sidebar: don't begin your trade offers with a lowball 'starter' offer, bring value to the table)

 

When the season starts stick with your guys*. Too often I've made eleventh hour changes that hurt. Lurking in the Help Board on Sunday mornings is fun, but knowing your lineup on Wednesday night is much more satisfying. You will be wrong at times, and that's ok. Ask yourself if you'd rather lose with Tony G or chase the possibility that Myers will catch that garbage time TD to put you over. I'd rather start the guys I drafted to play than agonize on Sunday morning.

 

*Don't be afraid to move your studs to address team needs. Most guys I know fall in love with their players before/during/after the draft and then won't move them despite team suffering. If you lucked out and picked up Wilson from the WW last year and didn't trade him for the RB or WR that you needed you'll be posting in this thread soon. Julio Jones is a great example of the 'nope can't touch him man crush'. I'll trade anyone on my team if it means the team puts up more points.

 

Focus on getting to the playoffs first. Make it there and the rest is a crapshoot.

 

Lose with class and win with dignity. Respect your league mates. Drink many beers. Remember this is what we do for fun

 

I've been reluctant to enter this thread but this post contains some solid advice.

 

I always make an objective evaluation of my team/moves at the end of each season. I also try to assess my biggest long term needs prior to the draft. My goal is to obtain a dynasty piece with my first pick. I can focus on the short term needs in later rounds. In reviewing my current roster, it is almost exclusively 1st round picks or players acquired with a 1st round talent. There is also a nice balance of youth and veterans. I've rebuilt on the fly and never had the pain of a mass "rebuilding" effort.

 

I like to stick with the team I draft. I know this sounds inflexible but if I really believe in a guy, I like the thing to run its course. The other benefit is to be at or near the top of the waiver wire. With smallish rosters, it isn't uncommon for a gem to surface.

[Little Big Head 6]

I'm on a five year title run in one league so I totally cannot relate

Me too

[DrG 103]

A five year title run may speak more about the level of competition than ones talent level.

[5Year1 23]

How does one do it?

 

I used to win championships in the early 00s.

 

But for the past six years or so my teams are on quite a streak of being good enough to squeek into the playoffs but not good enough to take the title. Every damn year I finish a game or two above .500 and then get knocked out before the championship game. And it's true across all formats-- ppr, standard scoring, keeper leagues, etc.

 

Now part of it is luck, for sure. Some ill timed injuries. My studs have a down week and his blow up, etc.

 

But I'm also thinking there must be something wrong with my in-season management. Or perhaps I am too conservative in the draft. This last year I was determined to either be awesome or suck ass, so I (think) I took more risks. But nope, still respectable-but-not-great at the end of the day.

 

Now I know part if this is that it's so much harder to find late-round gems or strike it rich on the waiver wire. There's just so much info out there now that even the casual FF player can easily locate.

 

But what's the answer? How do you gain an edge these days? Have others struggled with this issue of consistent mediocrity and found a way out?

 

I don't mean to make this all about me. Perhaps this could be a general thread about how to successfully go against the grain or how to nail in-season management.

Not sure if you are running multiple teams each year or just one. I learned after my first season to run multiple teams.

 

There are always going to be injuries and people under producing, but spread over 4 or 5 teams, I always have at least one that is not hurt too bad, if at all by these problems.

 

I also found that trying to play both PPR and Non PPR was too difficult because many players can be valuable in one but not the other. So to simplify things, I chose to focus only on Non keeper PPRs.

 

I also think that the draft is overrated. When I look at my championship teams, almost never is 1/2 my team in the Championship game players I originally drafted. Yes, there are the #1 and #2 draft pick studs and mainstays of the team, but after that, its in season management. As an example, the 12 starter PPR league team that I won a title with last year had Pierre Garcon, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Alfred Morris, Danario Alexander, T Y Hilton, Vick Ballard and Knowshon Moreno at the end of the season, all players I did not draft and picked up on waivers. Earlier, I had Marcel Reece and Bryce Brown on the roster for a few weeks when they had big games as starters when McCoy and McFadden were hurt.

 

This year I am going to still do my research and prepare but I am not going to sweat out the draft.

 

The last point I want to make is do your research and spend THE TIME during the season. Boards like this are great. Follow services like Roto Wire for inside information. Watch one of the Sunday morning Fantasy shows. There is often late breaking news that could affect how you set your roster. And check your league sites every night if possible and if not every other night. That is how I found that people had put players like Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and believe it or not Alfred Morris ( and in another league Trent Richardson) on waivers early in the season and got them ahead of someone else.

 

There is also the power of positive thinking. Make an informed decision, do it and never second guess yourself.

[5Year1 23]

I think a big difference is time and effort during the season. If you put enough time and energy in, you are more likely to find that waiver wire gem a week early. You are more likely to make a trade if you initiate them by spotting weaknesses in other teams where a trade benefits both teams. With FF now a days, it's the little things that matter.

 

In my league, there is a clear correlation between the commissioner and success. Three guys have been commissioner over our 12 years, and each time whoever the commish is, has done extremely well. I think this has to do with how often they are on the site and in tune with the rest of the league....it goes along with my point of time and energy DURING the season.

x2.

[vash1012 19]

I have been either #1 or #2 at the end of the last 5 leagues' regular season with the best win record and either the first or 2nd points totals, but I have NEVER made it out of the 2nd week of the playoffs. Why? I gravitate to consistent point scorers over high risk, boom and bust guys. So while I end up scoring higher average points per game, my average point distribution for the season is usually the smallest in the league. I get demolished by the guy in my league who has that team that scores 200 points one week and 65 points the next. My teams just don't have the punch to last in the playoffs against those teams that have really good and really bad weeks.

[Quickolas1 80]

I also think that the draft is overrated. When I look at my championship teams, almost never is 1/2 my team in the Championship game players I originally drafted. Yes, there are the #1 and #2 draft pick studs and mainstays of the team, but after that, its in season management. As an example, the 12 starter PPR league team that I won a title with last year had Pierre Garcon, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Alfred Morris, Danario Alexander, T Y Hilton, Vick Ballard and Knowshon Moreno at the end of the season, all players I did not draft and picked up on waivers. Earlier, I had Marcel Reece and Bryce Brown on the roster for a few weeks when they had big games as starters when McCoy and McFadden were hurt.

 

Your thesis should have been "play in a weak league."