Miles Austin WR2,3,4?

[Stacks 0]

Where would you rank him?

 

It seems most projections for Miles Austin are in the 65/900/5 range. Those numbers would put him in the WR3 group. With the Cowboys high powered offense and cream puff schedule could you see Miles beating those projections and landing closer to the low end WR2 category?

[420allstars 13]

Where would you rank him?

 

It seems most projections for Miles Austin are in the 65/900/5 range. Those numbers would put him in the WR3 group. With the Cowboys high powered offense and cream puff schedule could you see Miles beating those projections and landing closer to the low end WR2 category?

I would put him in the WR3 area, but low end IMO.. he is a steady but not all that exciting option for your flex or durring a bye week

[BobSanders_33 127]

I would say low WR2 until injured. Romo will look for him and other teams will commit to taking Dez out of the game. Austin will put up decent numbers until some sort of lower leg injury slows him down.

[Sho Nuff 720]

WR3 is about right...going to be stinker weeks when Dez and Witten are lighting it up.

Im hoping he has another big week so I can dump him off on someone. He is my WR3 due to an error by me letting myself draft Dez, Austin, and Romo.

[murf74 461]

Wr2....he will live off double and triple coverage of dez. You should not factor injury into rating a guy as a starter in each weeks lineup. Long term yes but week to week your #2wr being austin will not cause you a competitive disadvantage ...he is a mid level Wr2

[5Year1 23]

I don't see him as a 2 yet, though he could get there. I wouldn't feel comfortable as a play almost every week WR ( which a 2 is ) at this point, though as a 3 or a flex, yeah.

 

I realized a couple of days ago that he wasn't drafted(!!!) in one of my leagues. Was just scanning the available WRs. Picked him up in place of Mike Williams to share with Cecil Shorts my WR3 slot behind Cobb and Garcon.

[stonewall 647]

Assuming full health, he will be a WR2.......with WR1 upside.

[IGotWorms 3,365]

Assuming full health, he will be a WR2.......with WR1 upside.

Whoa now

[Stacks 0]

Assuming full health, he will be a WR2.......with WR1 upside.

 

If he can stay on the field I believe he can be a solid WR2. The Cowboys should be in plenty of shootouts, he knows Tony and the offense, and he'll see single coverage all year thanks to Dez.

[Bullet73 4]

This week he is a high WR2. Typically a WR2/3. (I'm a Cowboys fan).

 

As far as upside, we remember Laurent Robinson a few years ago, right?

[p00h 85]

Everyone projecting Romo to have a solid year, is all of that going to Dez? Miles will be mid/low end wr2, great value for where he was being drafted. Having said that, he'll be highly inconsistent. Having said that, show me a receiver not in the top 5 that is ever consistent. It is what it is but if you stacked up on rbs and ended up with miles as a wr2, you should be fine.

[WR Guru 31]

Since Austin's breakout year in '09, his per-game averages are 4.4 catches for 61.3 yards and 0.46 TD. Over a 16 game schedule, that projects to 70 catches, 981 yards, 7 TD. And he's playing in the same offense with the same QB and same coach.

 

That's a WR3 if I ever saw one.

[Stacks 0]

Since Austin's breakout year in '09, his per-game averages are 4.4 catches for 61.3 yards and 0.46 TD. Over a 16 game schedule, that projects to 70 catches, 981 yards, 7 TD. And he's playing in the same offense with the same QB and same coach.

 

That's a WR3 if I ever saw one.

 

This answers my question. WR3. That said, I think he breaks 1000 yards this season.

[sirensong 111]

Since Austin's breakout year in '09, his per-game averages are 4.4 catches for 61.3 yards and 0.46 TD. Over a 16 game schedule, that projects to 70 catches, 981 yards, 7 TD. And he's playing in the same offense with the same QB and same coach.

 

That's a WR3 if I ever saw one.

 

perfect example of glancing at stat lines instead of really evaluating a player. in 2012, austin was fighting injuries to both hamstrings the entire season, and put up 66/943/6. 2011? missed 6 games, played hurt down the stretch, and still performed in excess of what you're listing as his per-game average.

 

same QB? ~25% of his games since the 2009 season were with kitna and mcgee. same system? yep--same system where a healthy austin and a healthy romo put up numbers that were actually better than dez's breakout last season: 10TDs and 1200 yards in 9 games.

 

but let's figure out what's different from last season, where austin produced almost exactly in line with your projection...

 

-completely new strength and conditioning program, tailored to minimize the hamstring injuries that he has been dealing with for the last 2 years. austin enters the season completely healthy.

 

-opposing defenses are now forced to dedicate double and even triple coverage to dez, leaving austin in single coverage for the majority of games.

 

-significantly upgraded offensive line. last season featured zero continuity: tackles swapping sides. 20 year old going against the best pass rushers in the league. 3 different centers. revolving door at guard. seldom had the same starting lineup from one week to the next.

 

-a real threat at outside receiver in the 13 package, giving austin even more of an advantage out of the slot.

 

 

or you can just look at the raw numbers. bare stat lines seldom tell a reliable story. it takes work to analyze players properly.

[stonewall 647]

 

This answers my question. WR3.

 

Perhaps......but not necessarily correctly

[skinsrule05 30]

perfect example of glancing at stat lines instead of really evaluating a player. in 2012, austin was fighting injuries to both hamstrings the entire season, and put up 66/943/6. 2011? missed 6 games, played hurt down the stretch, and still performed in excess of what you're listing as his per-game average.

 

same QB? ~25% of his games since the 2009 season were with kitna and mcgee. same system? yep--same system where a healthy austin and a healthy romo put up numbers that were actually better than dez's breakout last season: 10TDs and 1200 yards in 9 games.

 

but let's figure out what's different from last season, where austin produced almost exactly in line with your projection...

 

-completely new strength and conditioning program, tailored to minimize the hamstring injuries that he has been dealing with for the last 2 years. austin enters the season completely healthy.

 

-opposing defenses are now forced to dedicate double and even triple coverage to dez, leaving austin in single coverage for the majority of games.

 

-significantly upgraded offensive line. last season featured zero continuity: tackles swapping sides. 20 year old going against the best pass rushers in the league. 3 different centers. revolving door at guard. seldom had the same starting lineup from one week to the next.

 

-a real threat at outside receiver in the 13 package, giving austin even more of an advantage out of the slot.

 

 

or you can just look at the raw numbers. bare stat lines seldom tell a reliable story. it takes work to analyze players properly.

Wow, this is some great information here. Based on this I would assume the only question around him making wr2 status is whether he can hold up physically. I know you said he has a new conditioning program and that is good reason for optimism.

[sirensong 111]

Wow, this is some great information here. Based on this I would assume the only question around him making wr2 status is whether he can hold up physically. I know you said he has a new conditioning program and that is good reason for optimism.

 

yeah--that's the big question, and people are justified in wondering whether or not he'll hold up. the conditioning program is maybe the most important aspect. austin has a reputation for working too hard in practice and strength/conditioning--some of his past injuries were him injuring himself by not knowing when to take better care of his body. now the S&C coach (whose name escapes me) is forcing him to take time off, and the work focuses heavily on flexibility rather than raw power.

 

so given his injury history, i don't dispute anyone who is uncomfortable counting on him as a WR2, but simply pointing out the stats with no consideration of their context is poor analysis IMO.

[TheUsualSuspect 207]

 

-opposing defenses are now forced to dedicate double and even triple coverage to dez, leaving austin in single coverage for the majority of games.

 

-significantly upgraded offensive line. last season featured zero continuity: tackles swapping sides. 20 year old going against the best pass rushers in the league. 3 different centers. revolving door at guard. seldom had the same starting lineup from one week to the next.

.

Interesting response, and I'm not doubting your passion for Austin, the Cowboys, or fantasy football in general but...

 

I think your opinions hold more water when you stick to facts.

 

I would like conclusive evidence where Dez was regularly being triple covered. I would assume there would not be a blitz in this instance...with no pass rush, did the opposing QB struggle to find the other completely open players? Triple coverage is rare/non-existent at this level.

 

And your other bullet makes an assumption that their 2013 O Line will not change for the remainder of this season. It's only been one week. It would be remarkable if their line holds up for the whole 16.

 

Injuries are of course, unpredictable and I do agree that we cannot simply assess a player on averages or past performances. There are too many other variables such as age/experience/OC/run-pass frequency etc...

 

With that said, I really dont have much of a point but would agree with most others on the forum that he is a solid WR3 at this time.

[WR Guru 31]

 

perfect example of glancing at stat lines instead of really evaluating a player. in 2012, austin was fighting injuries to both hamstrings the entire season, and put up 66/943/6. 2011? missed 6 games, played hurt down the stretch, and still performed in excess of what you're listing as his per-game average.

 

same QB? ~25% of his games since the 2009 season were with kitna and mcgee. same system? yep--same system where a healthy austin and a healthy romo put up numbers that were actually better than dez's breakout last season: 10TDs and 1200 yards in 9 games.

 

but let's figure out what's different from last season, where austin produced almost exactly in line with your projection...

 

-completely new strength and conditioning program, tailored to minimize the hamstring injuries that he has been dealing with for the last 2 years. austin enters the season completely healthy.

 

-opposing defenses are now forced to dedicate double and even triple coverage to dez, leaving austin in single coverage for the majority of games.

 

-significantly upgraded offensive line. last season featured zero continuity: tackles swapping sides. 20 year old going against the best pass rushers in the league. 3 different centers. revolving door at guard. seldom had the same starting lineup from one week to the next.

 

-a real threat at outside receiver in the 13 package, giving austin even more of an advantage out of the slot.

 

 

or you can just look at the raw numbers. bare stat lines seldom tell a reliable story. it takes work to analyze players properly.

That's all very fascinating, but I prefer to look at track record of production versus anecdotal evidence about a player's workout routine and such. Remember a couple of years ago all the talk about Felix Jones being in phenomenal shape and the star of training camp and yadda yadda... How did that turn out?

 

Every year since '09 there's a contingent of people who are convinced that Austin is about to re-emerge for this or that reason and it doesn't happen. On most days, he's the 3rd receiving option on his own team.

 

We'll revisit this in a few months, I assure you...

[sirensong 111]

I would like conclusive evidence where Dez was regularly being triple covered. I would assume there would not be a blitz in this instance...with no pass rush, did the opposing QB struggle to find the other completely open players? Triple coverage is rare/non-existent at this level.

 

 

regularly? no. no defense can afford to do that. but if you watch the all-22, you'll note that dez was doubled on almost every play, and a LB was charging into his slant zone as a first read. this basically amounts to a triple--think of what that does to coverage on the opposite slot, where austin normally lines up in 13.

 

regarding the OL, there is no question that the cowboys are objectively in a better situation than at this time last season. smith has a full year in his new position, and as has been noted around the league, free is playing with much better technique than last season. the C is a first round pick rather than a 6th rounder (who got hurt and was replaced by an undrafted guard...who then got hurt and was replaced by another guy who was on the team for 3 days before his first start). the RG has a year in the system, and unlike last season, actually got some camp work in. so both the IOL and the edges have improved any way you slice it.

 

the point is quite simple--you pulled up some numbers as austin's average per-game production, and projected it out to an "average" season. but strangely enough, he put up almost exactly those "average" numbers last season while dealing with multiple injuries (limiting his ability) and one of the worst offensive line situations in the league (limiting his opportunities). unless you're predicting the same kinds of injuries to him and the line, this strongly suggests that his production will improve.

 

from a quantitative analysis standpoint, total production divided by game counts is poor methodology. good statistical work requires context-sensitive data gathering. this is the basis of effective analytics.

[Djgb13 2,338]

He has the potential to be a wr2. Remember he used to be a wr1 and the number one option on the cowboys. With dez Bryant in the mix he gets a bump down. However he still gets plenty of receptions. Will be a good PPR receiver this year. Still I would tether my expectations inches he gets injured or just fast out gets passes up by Dez during some games. Which I do see happening sometimes

[stonewall 647]

On queue, he comes through with a WR5 performance.

[WR Guru 31]

 

 

from a quantitative analysis standpoint, total production divided by game counts is poor methodology. good statistical work requires context-sensitive data gathering. this is the basis of effective analytics.

Okay, you continue expertly analyzing Austin's benchpress and Dallas's offensive line and I'll look at history of production and we'll see in a few months which was a more accurate indicator in this case.

 

By the way, 3 for 31 today. That's about a hundred yards combined in 2 games. Just sayin...

[5Year1 23]

Okay, you continue expertly analyzing Austin's benchpress and Dallas's offensive line and I'll look at history of production and we'll see in a few months which was a more accurate indicator in this case.

 

By the way, 3 for 31 today. That's about a hundred yards combined in 2 games. Just sayin...

^^^ This. That is NOT a WR1 or top flight WR2.