Why is Odell Beckham...?

[Cruzer 1,995]

Good to know. Cant wait for Odell to dominate this year.

He just might - one that talented (you would think) should.... Least up till the time he runs into a D. Revis.. Unless of course you consider 30 yards a banner success.. If you do, salute.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,270]

He just might - one that talented (you would think) should.... Least up till the time he runs into a D. Revis.. Unless of course you consider 30 yards a banner success.. If you do, salute.

Oh you judge preseason performance strictly from what the stat sheet says after a few quarters? Man i thought you would know better than that. Especially since you are a near professional scout for the Cowboys. Well hopefully you now know you judge preseason performance on more than just stats.

[Cruzer 1,995]

Oh you judge preseason performance strictly from what the stat sheet says after a few quarters? Man i thought you would know better than that. Especially since you are a near professional scout for the Cowboys. Well hopefully you now know you judge preseason performance on more than just stats.

Well - seeing how the very best indicator in judging 2 individual competitors is an actual "head-to-head" match up, yes. I'm not certain how accessing Beckham to Revis, as Beckham plays slot corners in Washington, is of very much value... Again, if you do - salute.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Well - seeing how the very best indicator in judging 2 individual competitors is an actual "head-to-head" match up, yes. I'm not certain how accessing Beckham to Revis, as Beckham plays slot corners in Washington, is of very much value... Again, if you do - salute.

Can you hop off of Revis's sack for just a minute? This thread is not about him. Is he the best corner in the league? Yes. But you guys are arguing about meaningless preseason! You think the Giants want to ruin Odell's golden hamstrings this early by having him go all out vs Revis in the preseason? That's just silly. Especially with Cruz still hurt. If they faced off in regular season things would be different and we can revisit this argument. Fact is if you look at the last 10 games of the season last year, NOBODY could stop Odell.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

According to my calculations he averaged about 18.5 FPS in standard scoring over last 10 weeks. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but that has to be tops in the league by a lot.

[Cruzer 1,995]

..NOBODY could stop Odell.

Who's on who's sack now?

[Frozenbeernuts 2,270]

Who's on who's sack now?

But he was speaking the truth...

[Cruzer 1,995]

But he was speaking the truth...

So was I.

[hotgumbo1 12]

yeah I've been counting on draft buddy and fft rankings the last few years and my teams have been the suck

 

 

#boughtitagainthisyear

Huh. I have won 5 Superbowls in the last decade or so since using FFToday and the buddy. None before that.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,270]

So was I.

No what you said was your opinion. Like i had an opinion about OBJ. Through your opinion your jumped on Revis nuts. Loon was merely stating a fact that that OBJ dominated every corner he faced as a rookie. Considering he had close to the best 10 game stretch for a receiver statistically in NFL history, i would say he was stating a fact rather than opinion.

[lesjroza 70]

Couldn't figure out how to embed this but its 2:23 of Odell vs Revis, fits this discussion, very nice battle. Hard not to see how good both of those guys are, and Yes I think Odell deserves to be in the discussion at #1 and no I don't think anything in these cuts should dissuade anyone from thinking otherwise despite whatever the stat outcome.

 

 

 

http://bit.ly/1NU9YMO

[seadog54 20]

Couldn't figure out how to embed this but its 2:23 of Odell vs Revis, fits this discussion, very nice battle. Hard not to see how good both of those guys are, and Yes I think Odell deserves to be in the discussion at #1 and no I don't think anything in these cuts should dissuade anyone from thinking otherwise despite whatever the stat outcome.

 

 

 

http://bit.ly/1NU9YMO

 

Wow he smoked Revis in that one route where Eli missed the throw behind him and outside. It would've been a TD.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,270]

Couldn't figure out how to embed this but its 2:23 of Odell vs Revis, fits this discussion, very nice battle. Hard not to see how good both of those guys are, and Yes I think Odell deserves to be in the discussion at #1 and no I don't think anything in these cuts should dissuade anyone from thinking otherwise despite whatever the stat outcome.

 

 

 

http://bit.ly/1NU9YMO

Lol. I cant believe Cruzer thinks that Revis somehow won that battle. Beckham had him BURNED if Eli didnt make a bad pass. Revis ran right by Beckham on the one hander just like i said. Someone needs glasses.

[Cruzer 1,995]

No what you said was your opinion. Like i had an opinion about OBJ. Through your opinion your jumped on Revis nuts. Loon was merely stating a fact that that OBJ dominated every corner he faced as a rookie. Considering he had close to the best 10 game stretch for a receiver statistically in NFL history, i would say he was stating a fact rather than opinion.

Please link where I said ANYTHING about Beckham not being dominant, great or not having a fantastic rookie season... While you're looking - I'll point out that I merely pointed out that I thought Revis in fact got the better of him that game.

 

Call it what you want, fact, opnion, whatever - enjoy you're fishing expedition.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,270]

Please link where I said ANYTHING about Beckham not being dominant, great or not having a fantastic rookie season... While you're looking - I'll point out that I merely pointed out that I thought Revis in fact got the better of him that game.

 

Call it what you want, fact, opnion, whatever - enjoy you're fishing expedition.

I didnt say that you said he wasnt dominant. Go back and read what you just quoted. Nowhere in there did i say that. Les just posted a video of Odell getting the better of Revis on more than one play. Now again if you actually go and watch the video and still believe Revis got the better of OBJ, well thats your opinion. I would tell you that you need to work on your scouting skills because the out of bounds catch happened like i described with Revis running by Odell. Odell burning Revis on a route with a bad pass by Eli. Revis getting trucked by Beckham at least once. Im not sure who the second one was.

[sirensong 111]

Perhaps we're arguing past each other, but my point is going to stand, for one really unassailable reason: every WR uses stickum.

 

Only Beckham owns a catch like that.

 

The End.

 

 

i can accept that with no problem--it's far, far more circumspect than your earlier statement.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Half a season and a guy is the greatest talent since Moss and Rice? Holy man....

 

This is getting crazy. I mean I guess its possible but that's a pretty bold statement.

[sirensong 111]

Half a season and a guy is the greatest talent since Moss and Rice? Holy ###### man....

 

This is getting crazy. I mean I guess its possible but that's a pretty bold statement.

 

 

i think it's a reasonable argument to make. it's not the production that matters--it's the football-playing qualities that he has shown. intuitive routerunning, effortless separation from top-end corners, and of course the hands. in this way, he is more like moss than rice--the latter had to work to become the best.

 

like moss did, ODB has the tools to become a generational talent. whether or not he reaches that level is entirely dependent on his willingness to put in rice-like work.

[Cruzer 1,995]

I didnt say that you said he wasnt dominant. Go back and read what you just quoted. Nowhere in there did i say that. Les just posted a video of Odell getting the better of Revis on more than one play. Now again if you actually go and watch the video and still believe Revis got the better of OBJ, well thats your opinion. I would tell you that you need to work on your scouting skills because the out of bounds catch happened like i described with Revis running by Odell. Odell burning Revis on a route with a bad pass by Eli. Revis getting trucked by Beckham at least once. Im not sure who the second one was.

You realize you're talking, not only about just 1 play, but secondly, a play that wasn't even a play at all bcoz the wr was out of bounds? Omg - brilliant.. Hey let's create at stat of "Almost Great Plays that didn't count but Almost Did"! Lol

[Frozenbeernuts 2,270]

You realize you're talking, not only about just 1 play, but secondly, a play that wasn't even a play at all bcoz the wr was out of bounds? Omg - brilliant.. Hey let's create at stat of "Almost Great Plays that didn't count but Almost Did"! Lol

You can not count that play. Thats fine. Again i said you should look a little deeper than just stats in preseason. You obviously dont understand that it was more the qbs fault than anything. Besides that play he looked to get the better of Revis. If you cant see that you are either blind, or you are now just lying.

[Cruzer 1,995]

 

You can not count that play. Thats fine. Again i said you should look a little deeper than just stats in preseason. You obviously dont understand that it was more the qbs fault than anything. Besides that play he looked to get the better of Revis. If you cant see that you are either blind, or you are now just lying.

Beckham is a gifted wr - a play here, play there - he's gunna shine and get his... But a play doesn't make a performance, nor a grade. And again, overall - Revis was better. Next time, might be different.

[IMMensaMind 462]

So there I was tonight, drafting out of the 10th round, having picked Andrew Luck first (big QB heavy league), and on the way back, I had OBJ...or I had Randall Cobb.

 

I can't believe it, but I took Cobb. Some spider sense told me to lay off Beckham. Dunno why.

 

I hope I didn't shoot myself in the foot.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Half a season and a guy is the greatest talent since Moss and Rice? Holy ###### man....

 

This is getting crazy. I mean I guess its possible but that's a pretty bold statement.

WRs do not dominate so quickly so soon. Everyone knows the 3-year rule when it comes to young WRs. This guy missed a large portion of camp, I believe all of the preseason, and 4 weeks of the regular season. So how on earth can you explain his dominance? Fluke? Yeah let's go with that it was a fluke. Oh and good luck with Cobb over OBJ mensa. Lol

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Receivers need to build a rapport with their QB. It takes time and repetition. It doesn't happen overnight. But with Odell it seemingly really did. I'd be shocked if this guy doesn't make it into the hall some day, barring injury or some Ricky Williams crap. His rookie season is legendary regardless of what happens next.

[MudDawgs4Life 6]

You ODB fans are missing the point. Did he have an amazing 12 games last year? Yes. Has he shown tremendous athletic ability to make highlight reel catches? Yes. But drafting players in the top 15 overall is about managing risk. His sample size is too small. Dez, DT, Julio and even Calvin simply make more sense because they've shown they can do it and do it again. ODB might be the highest scoring WR in football this year. But he also might be 17, or 22 or something. His peer group has a larger sample set and is still in their prime, so why take the risk? There is no point. Cruz had an amazing season once only to not follow it up. He'll Dwayne bows looked unstoppable one year when he caught 15 tds. These are what we call outliers. Without doing it twice, there is risk there. Cj spiller was once a top 5 RB after one breakout season, he didn't repeat. Doug Martin anybody? What happened to him after his unworldly rookie season? Anybody? Buehler? Buehler? You need to take sample size into consideration in the top 3 rounds. I'm not saying older is better because you need to take age into consideration too when managing risk but the guys we are comparing him to see still in their primes 27-29 years old with 5ish real nfl seasons under their belt.

 

And on the topic of sample size, Eli is a career 59% passer. That is not that good. It's average at best. Does anybody know how many tds the great almighty ODB scored in his 3 years at LSU? 12. Also not that good.

 

Look, I like the guy, he's fun to watch and next year he might be a top 5 overall pick. But this year, I would rather take a guy with the same upside with low risk than a guy with medium risk. You don't win fantasy leagues in the first round, can you can lose them. Don't draft on last year's stats. Draft on the possibilities of this year given what we know...and the more certain the better early.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,270]

You ODB fans are missing the point. Did he have an amazing 12 games last year? Yes. Has he shown tremendous athletic ability to make highlight reel catches? Yes. But drafting players in the top 15 overall is about managing risk. His sample size is too small. Dez, DT, Julio and even Calvin simply make more sense because they've shown they can do it and do it again. ODB might be the highest scoring WR in football this year. But he also might be 17, or 22 or something. His peer group has a larger sample set and is still in their prime, so why take the risk? There is no point. Cruz had an amazing season once only to not follow it up. He'll Dwayne bows looked unstoppable one year when he caught 15 tds. These are what we call outliers. Without doing it twice, there is risk there. Cj spiller was once a top 5 RB after one breakout season, he didn't repeat. Doug Martin anybody? What happened to him after his unworldly rookie season? Anybody? Buehler? Buehler? You need to take sample size into consideration in the top 3 rounds. I'm not saying older is better because you need to take age into consideration too when managing risk but the guys we are comparing him to see still in their primes 27-29 years old with 5ish real nfl seasons under their belt.

 

And on the topic of sample size, Eli is a career 59% passer. That is not that good. It's average at best. Does anybody know how many tds the great almighty ODB scored in his 3 years at LSU? 12. Also not that good.

 

Look, I like the guy, he's fun to watch and next year he might be a top 5 overall pick. But this year, I would rather take a guy with the same upside with low risk than a guy with medium risk. You don't win fantasy leagues in the first round, can you can lose them. Don't draft on last year's stats. Draft on the possibilities of this year given what we know...and the more certain the better early.

Well if we ignore last years stats how do we know who has the potential to be good?

 

Calvin Johnson? I love the guy, but he KILLED owners last year who were drafting a lead pipe lock awesome receiver with tons of past performance to back up his draft status. AJ Green is another example.

 

In regards to Cruz and Bowe, they never did what Beckham is doing. Plus Cruz had a receiver in Nicks to help take heat off of him. That really helped Cruz get open for those long plays.

 

If anything you should be more encouraged by Beckhams smaller sample size because of a few factors. First he was a rookie last year. Second he missed all of training camp and the first four games of the season. He then took 3 games to get used to the NFL and gain Elis trust (he still had 3 tds in his first 3 games). After that he blew away the competition. In the game against Seattle, didnt he do a lot of his damage against Sherman?

 

Plus he just went up against Revis and beat him. OBJ ran over Revis at least once, maybe twice. He would have demolished Revis had his qb been more accurate. Julio Jones always misses games. DT is great, but his qb seems to be fading even more. I like Dez, but his qb is a back injury away from retiring. Antonio Brown is awesome, but the most TDs he had before last year was 8 right? (People say Julio cant score a lot of TDs because he has never done it before while ignoring the fact that Brown did the same thing last year)

 

If you dont like him in the top 5, i can understand, but there are very legit reasons to rank him #1 if someone believes he should be.

[Frozenbeernuts 2,270]

In regard to Odells college stats, he didnt have a great qb to work with and worked across from Landry. Mettenburger obviously favored Landry. I do incorporate college stats into mg scouting a bit so i too discounted him because of his lack of elite production. I have since amended my point of view since he wasnt favored. It doesnt always equate the same in similar situations, but in this instance i think his college stats can be thrown out.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

You ODB fans are missing the point. Did he have an amazing 12 games last year? Yes. Has he shown tremendous athletic ability to make highlight reel catches? Yes. But drafting players in the top 15 overall is about managing risk. His sample size is too small. Dez, DT, Julio and even Calvin simply make more sense because they've shown they can do it and do it again. ODB might be the highest scoring WR in football this year. But he also might be 17, or 22 or something. His peer group has a larger sample set and is still in their prime, so why take the risk? There is no point. Cruz had an amazing season once only to not follow it up. He'll Dwayne bows looked unstoppable one year when he caught 15 tds. These are what we call outliers. Without doing it twice, there is risk there. Cj spiller was once a top 5 RB after one breakout season, he didn't repeat. Doug Martin anybody? What happened to him after his unworldly rookie season? Anybody? Buehler? Buehler? You need to take sample size into consideration in the top 3 rounds. I'm not saying older is better because you need to take age into consideration too when managing risk but the guys we are comparing him to see still in their primes 27-29 years old with 5ish real nfl seasons under their belt.

 

And on the topic of sample size, Eli is a career 59% passer. That is not that good. It's average at best. Does anybody know how many tds the great almighty ODB scored in his 3 years at LSU? 12. Also not that good.

 

Look, I like the guy, he's fun to watch and next year he might be a top 5 overall pick. But this year, I would rather take a guy with the same upside with low risk than a guy with medium risk. You don't win fantasy leagues in the first round, can you can lose them. Don't draft on last year's stats. Draft on the possibilities of this year given what we know...and the more certain the better early.

I completely disagree with this post.

 

Comparing Odell's rookie season to anyone other than Moss is FOOLISH. Dwayne bowe and victor Cruz? Lol. Moss caught 17 TDs his rookie year but only on 69 catches and 1300 yards. He played in all 16 games. Odell topped 1300 yards also and finished with 90 catches! In 4 less games, no preseason or training camp. So you can make the argument his rookie season was better than Moss. I'm not saying it was but you can certainly make the argument.

 

Secondly, the draft is NEVER won or lost in the first round. Never. Last years examples are Adrian Peterson, lesean McCoy, megatron, etc. My strategy in the first round is to try and hit the biggest home run possible but if you strike out, that's what the rest of the draft is for. The only truly safe 1st round picks are QBs.

 

And a BIG FAT LOL to you saying these other guys like megatron have "the same upside" as Odell. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Good luck this year champ.

[weepaws 3,202]

I disagree about the draft being won or lost in the first round , I don't think you will win because of the first round but I think you can lose because of it . That very first pick sets the tone for the way your draft goes after that first pick so I do think it has a impact on losing because of who you pick with the he first pick and the picks you make later play of of that first pick .

[MudDawgs4Life 6]

Thanks loonatlk I will need luck this year, most winners do get some luck. And I won 2 of my 3 leagues each of the past 2 years so you got that right also, I am a champ. If you think he's randy moss go ahead and draft him. Yes miss caught 17 tds his rookie year, took him 6 years to hit that mark again.

 

Your second point makes no sense, did you read my post? I said it's not won in the first round, so why are you yelling the same thing at me? Take a xanex and read slowly here and you might be able to take your ODB blinders off.

 

All I'm saying is with a small sample size comes risk. Sometimes it's enough, sometimes it's not. I'm not comparing him skill wise to victor Cruz, I'm just giving an example of what basing your hopes on a small sample set can do. Obviously he didn't play or make a catch rookie season. Then comes out put up 82/1536/9. 25 catches over 20 yards. Straight down from there.

 

I'm not saying he's going to suck. But I'm a financial analyst by trade, I manage risk. Sample sets = greater risk. It's not my concept, it's a proven fact over time and if you don't apply it in fantasy football you are missing something.

[KSB2424 3,148]

PPR

 

Antonio

Julio

Dez

ODB

D.Thomas

[MudDawgs4Life 6]

Meant *smaller samples... Left an important word out there.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Thanks loonatlk I will need luck this year, most winners do get some luck. And I won 2 of my 3 leagues each of the past 2 years so you got that right also, I am a champ. If you think he's randy moss go ahead and draft him. Yes miss caught 17 tds his rookie year, took him 6 years to hit that mark again.

 

Your second point makes no sense, did you read my post? I said it's not won in the first round, so why are you yelling the same thing at me? Take a xanex and read slowly here and you might be able to take your ODB blinders off.

 

All I'm saying is with a small sample size comes risk. Sometimes it's enough, sometimes it's not. I'm not comparing him skill wise to victor Cruz, I'm just giving an example of what basing your hopes on a small sample set can do. Obviously he didn't play or make a catch rookie season. Then comes out put up 82/1536/9. 25 catches over 20 yards. Straight down from there.

 

I'm not saying he's going to suck. But I'm a financial analyst by trade, I manage risk. Sample sets = greater risk. It's not my concept, it's a proven fact over time and if you don't apply it in fantasy football you are missing something.

Where I disagree is that drafts are NOT LOST in the first round, where you are saying they could be. I'm sure many in this forum can attest to drafting AP or McCoy last year and still winning it all. One pick cannot ruin an entire team. That's what I'm trying to say.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Lol and it took 6 years for Moss to hit 17 TDs again. You're right he was terrible those 6 years after his rookie year. But I think he was ranked either 1 or 2 each year in fantasy sooo. Who am I kidding I can't even be sarcastic. Moss was a monster in that 6 year stretch! You're making my point lol

[MudDawgs4Life 6]

Lol and it took 6 years for Moss to hit 17 TDs again. You're right he was terrible those 6 years after his rookie year. But I think he was ranked either 1 or 2 each year in fantasy sooo. Who am I kidding I can't even be sarcastic. Moss was a monster in that 6 year stretch! You're making my point lol

 

honestly, i dont know what your point is. all i'm hearing is that beckham IS randy moss and will only get better. is that what you are saying? all you are doing is telling me i'm wrong and that randy moss had 17 tds. whereas i'm talking about draft strategy and i think he's unnecessary risk for top of the 2nd round over 4 other guys, maybe 5. i know how good randy moss is. he proved it over and over. if i didn't go after him in 1999 i'm sure i was interested in him after that, even though his sophomore year wasn't as good as his rookie year. when i say it took 6 years means that it's not like a guy starts at one point and just goes straight up, newsflash, he might have overachieved a bit. you're making it out like i think he's undraftable or something. Tell me, you such a big randy moss fan, did you draft him in 2007 his first year in New England coming off a 500 yard, 13 games played season in oakland or did he not have the upside like calvin doesn't have now apparently?

 

we will just have to agree to disagree, after all, that's what makes a market. enjoy beckham, if he's there at 20 in my draft tomorrow night, i will take him.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

 

honestly, i dont know what your point is. all i'm hearing is that beckham IS randy moss and will only get better. is that what you are saying? all you are doing is telling me i'm wrong and that randy moss had 17 tds. whereas i'm talking about draft strategy and i think he's unnecessary risk for top of the 2nd round over 4 other guys, maybe 5. i know how good randy moss is. he proved it over and over. if i didn't go after him in 1999 i'm sure i was interested in him after that, even though his sophomore year wasn't as good as his rookie year. when i say it took 6 years means that it's not like a guy starts at one point and just goes straight up, newsflash, he might have overachieved a bit. you're making it out like i think he's undraftable or something. Tell me, you such a big randy moss fan, did you draft him in 2007 his first year in New England coming off a 500 yard, 13 games played season in oakland or did he not have the upside like calvin doesn't have now apparently?

 

we will just have to agree to disagree, after all, that's what makes a market. enjoy beckham, if he's there at 20 in my draft tomorrow night, i will take him.

First or all, in your first post you did compare Odell to Dwayne Bowe. Secondly you're saying you wouldn't draft this guy because the sample size is too small. You're basically saying you haven't seen enough from him to warrant such a high selection. What I'm trying to say is he didn't just play well last year, he dominated. I understand risk management but this isn't sabremetrics dude it's football. 16 games per season. If he stays healthy why on earth is he riskier than some of the names you mentioned? Megatron has definitely lost a step and Golden tate and potentially Ebron could vulture targets from him. DT is playing with a 40 year old QB who claims to be losing feeling in his fingers. Dez is a lock for 90-1200-13 right? But if we take Odell's numbers from last year and expand it over 16 games it would be better than Dez no? Few players, WRs especially, come completely without risk.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

And I'm not skewing your words. By saying you would take Odell at 20 is the same as saying you wouldn't draft him because he should not be there at 20.

[smash-a-mus 6]

Certain guys just make things look like an art form. It's not just about the stats when you talk about ODB. He has crazy ideas in his head where he will try something that no other WRs would even think to do. We talk about the radius where a QB can hit a particular receiver. For example, gronk has a crazy wide radius because of his length and athleticism. I think you can make the same case for ODB. His one handed skills affords him a wide catch radius. I dont know where he will finish this year but I will be following his games like I followed Stephen Curry in NBA this year.

[Dueces Will Be Wild 15]

With ODB, you get more risk but also potentially more reward. I mean he could easily have a 1800+ YDS 15+ TD season if he continues to play like he did last year. But then again he could have a rough year, maybe teams start to figure him out, maybe he becomes an even bigger focal point for defenses and he has trouble adjusting.

 

Essentially people are going to have very different values because of their risk tolerance and their reward desire in comparison to WRs that have consistently produced like Brown. There will be no consensus on this and if you're looking for a list to tell you exactly where to take OBJ, you're going to be disappointed.

[msdemille72 3]

Look at his PPG stats as a starter weeks 7-16 or 7-17 if you count week 17.

 

In most PPR formats he was several points ahead of every other WR and in some every other position player ....

 

as a rookie ...

 

without any Cruz to draw coverage away from him ...

 

That's my reasoning anyway ... took him at 1.01 in a couple of recent PPR dynasty startups