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AintNoStoppinMeNow

I am Now A Firm Believer in Zero RB Theory

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I grabbed Brown with with my fifth pick in the first round and followed it with OBJ in the second. And got Deandre in the fourth. I'm having a quality year so far. Of all the RB that were drafted in the first round, only two are doing well. If you were ever going to go Zero RB strategy, this was the year.

This was def the year that will put ZRB on the map. Watch it blow up in peoples faces next year.

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Too extreme. Im equating FF skill to the skill required to play red/black roullette. "Well its been black 4 times in a row so ill bet red, my odds seem better. Doh, black again!"

 

Clearly there's no telling you how you're completely wrong. Roulette is a complete game of chance. While each number has a history from the number of times the ball has landed on it, there's no way for the bettor to use that information to their advantage to predict future outcomes.

 

In fantasy sports, there is a wealth of information available to an owner that can be used to predict the outcomes. FFToday publishes information like fantasy points allowed and consistency rankings because these are real things that have happened and can be utilized as tools to predict future outcomes. Will they always be right? Nope. But over time, an owner who consistency utilizes statistical information on a weekly and annual basis over their 'gut' will win more often than their opponents. Debating this point is insane and moronic.

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I grabbed Brown with with my fifth pick in the first round and followed it with OBJ in the second. And got Deandre in the fourth. I'm having a quality year so far. Of all the RB that were drafted in the first round, only two are doing well. If you were ever going to go Zero RB strategy, this was the year.

But that worked because ODB fell to you in the mid 2nd. If others were employing zero RB, that won't happen. It depends on your league, scoring system and if others are doing it. You can't marry yourself to it. You don't take a WR because he's a WR. You take him if he is going to score more than the other players available. I've done it some years, couldnt do it this year, I picked 3rd in a 12 team draft. They were all gone at that point by the end of the second. Other guys were either going WR/WR, or taking one WR and a RB.

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i think the very fact that it CAN happen proves my point. Lets take a 100% skill game like chess. Me vs the best chess player 1000 matches. Pro will beat me 1000-0 and there is zero chance i take a single game. when skill is applied to a game, it removes chance. Nothing in FF can remove chance, it will always be there.

 

This isn't a black and white conversation.

 

No one here is arguing that any level of skill can or will remove 'chance' in fantasy football. However, the 'skill' you refer to can serve to mitigate the risk associated with the 'chance'.

 

Stop arguing for the sake of arguing. You're basically saying that knowledge has zero gain over no knowledge. Just stop.

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Clearly there's no telling you how you're completely wrong. Roulette is a complete game of chance. While each number has a history and number of times the ball has landed on it, there is no way for the bettor to use that information to their advantage to predict future outcomes.

 

In fantasy sports, there is a wealth of information available to an owner that can be used to predict the outcomes. FFToday publishes information like fantasy points allowed and consistency rankings because these are real things that have happened and can be utilized as tools to predict future outcomes. Will they always be right? Nope. But over time, an owner who consistency utilizes statistical information on a weekly and annual basis over their 'gut' will win more often than their opponents. Debating this point is insane and moronic.

My roulette example was a bit extreme. But the bolded is not true, I cant count the times a week we see "should have went with my gut and not the statistics". But then again thats a bit of a double edge because my gut also factors in stats, trends etc. Its apples to apples. I just know every week the FU thread is filled with smart decisions that completely backfired.

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Yes of course. Im just claiming FF is highly tilted towartds the luck side. Around 90%. The 10% being those baseline skills wich are drafting semi smartly, knowing the nfl and the players, making timely WW pickups. The fact that i regularly see tacos who dont even have those baseline skills still win in FF is further evidence to my case.

 

Someone can go into a draft with zero knowledge, just take the top name of an espn cheat sheet every round and set their lineup using projections and win it all. Easily. Very easily. They may need some WW smarts, but thats only one skill of the three baselines needed.

 

That's impossible to quantify with a percentage. I'll bite and say 90% is high.

 

So ok, how about this.

 

I get 10 dice and you get 9. We roll each 13 times and total them. What would you say the odds are you beat me the first time? How about the second? How about we perform this experiment 5 times in a row. How many times of five will your 13 rolls of 9 dice exceed the total of my 13 rolls of 10?

 

Would you rather have 9 dice or 10?

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That's impossible to quantify with a percentage. I'll bite and say 90% is high.

 

So ok, how about this.

 

I get 10 dice and you get 9. We roll each 13 times and total them. What would you say the odds are you beat me the first time? How about the second? How about we perform this experiment 5 times in a row. How many times of five will your 13 rolls of 9 dice exceed the total of my 13 rolls of 10?

 

Would you rather have 9 dice or 10?

It is impossible to quantify.

Id rather have the 10 dice obviously. The odds I beat you dont change for each roll. I could beat you every roll, no rolls or some rolls, theres no way to tell. You have the edge tho.

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But that worked because ODB fell to you in the mid 2nd. If others were employing zero RB, that won't happen. It depends on your league, scoring system and if others are doing it. You can't marry yourself to it. You don't take a WR because he's a WR. You take him if he is going to score more than the other players available. I've done it some years, couldnt do it this year, I picked 3rd in a 12 team draft. They were all gone at that point by the end of the second. Other guys were either going WR/WR, or taking one WR and a RB.

 

I did get lucky that OBJ was there. This league has always been RB heavy and this year was no exception. And two QB (Luck and Rodgers) went before him. I can see next year being the opposite now. I was the only one who went WR/WR. I bet next year there will be four or five teams going that route.

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My roulette example was a bit extreme. But the bolded is not true, I cant count the times a week we see "should have went with my gut and not the statistics". But then again thats a bit of a double edge because my gut also factors in stats, trends etc. Its apples to apples. I just know every week the FU thread is filled with smart decisions that completely backfired.

 

You're quantifying your comment based on observation, recency and personal bias – from a paltry number of posts from a statistics side for comparisons of a single player versus another without any merit given to the almost infinite number of permutations which exist for why that owner is forced to choose between those two players.

 

But ok. Let's run with it. Over the course of an entire season if every starting roster decision was made by a computer for every fantasy team in existence derived from an algorithm that calculated advanced metrics, opponent's fantasy stats, weather, blog posts, coach quips, beat reporter practice observations or if the player swallowed his tobacco on the flight – yes, that computer will probably perform better then if every owner used their gut.

 

So let me ask you this. If you had access to such a computer and its wealth of information, would you use it? Would you say it offers any advantage over an owner who does not?

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Lol at these long replies breaking down skill. It's all luck

:pointstosky:

 

Of course it is...

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So let me ask you this. If you had access to such a computer and its wealth of information, would you use it? Would you say it offers any advantage over an owner who does not?

Would I use it? Yes because im a sucker. But to REALLY answer your question. No, I dont think that would give me any advantage over my own knowledge of football and ability to make speculative decisions on outcomes decided by too many variables for a computer to give an edge. it cant predict a team missing a tackle or a flag or any of the 1000 variables that decide a fantasy players day.

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Would I use it? Yes because im a sucker. But to REALLY answer your question. No, I dont think that would give me any advantage over my own knowledge of football and ability to make speculative decisions on outcomes decided by too many variables for a computer to give an edge. it cant predict a team missing a tackle or a flag or any of the 1000 variables that decide a fantasy players day.

 

Well it's a good thing the fantasy season is multiple weeks then ey?

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Well it's a good thing the fantasy season is multiple weeks then ey?

Not enough weeks, 14 is too low to account for variance. If we were talking a 162 game baseball season? Ok, we can talk, thats alot of games and any advantage however minor will add up potentially.

 

Scoring a decent amount over the course of a season can be controlled with knowledge and skill. But actually winning individual games, especially a playoff game is entirely decided by luck and the 1000 variables that go into a single FF game. Iv said on here, Head to head leagues are a crapshoot and total points standings are a better indicator of FF accumen. Raise your hand if you know or are, someone who scored near the most points in your league but missed the playoffs.

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Not enough weeks, 14 is too low to account for variance. If we were talking a 162 game baseball season? Ok, we can talk, thats alot of games and any advantage however minor will add up potentially.

 

Scoring a decent amount over the course of a season can be controlled with knowledge and skill. But actually winning individual games, especially a playoff game is entirely decided by luck and the 1000 variables that go into a single FF game. Iv said on here, Head to head leagues are a crapshoot and total points standings are a better indicator of FF accumen. Raise your hand if you know or are, someone who scored near the most points in your league but missed the playoffs.

 

I'm right there this season. 2nd in points and 3-7. However that door swings both ways. I won the league in 2012 second last in points. This is an area that lends itself not to league format but decisions on payouts and rewards. We pay the top scoring team each week (There are also fun scoring bonuses teams can earn, Mike covered some of our league's rules in last weeks Q&A) and the points leader at the end of the season.

 

I agree that a one game playoff diminishes what a strong owner can and can't due to affect the outcome. However, there are still many ways a top seeded owner (who may not be battling for a playoff spot) can gear up their team for the playoffs. Trading or adding players with potentially strong forecasted playoff match-ups / workload or RB's that play in cold weather (who statistically perform better for fantasy purposes.) and being smart w/ their waiver priority or budget to ensure pick of the litter during championship week (many a league has been won with a week 16 waiver add) are a few. These are good team management and smart ownership skills used to diminish the amount of luck involved.

 

As for a 14 week season not allowing for (as much) standard deviation or market correction versus baseball – I think that's a fair assessment. I also participate in a H2H 14 team baseball keeper league with friends where I finished 1st, 2nd and 4th over the past three seasons.

 

Like football, fantasy baseball has far more to do with active management and foresight than standard deviation. Due to the length of a season and size of the draft (we go 27 rounds for a 14 team league – most of us average a beer every two rounds!) there is much more emphasis placed on securing strong core players in the first 10 rounds then football, where seasons are usually won or lost in the mid rounds, 3 – 8. (Maybe a fun topic for another thread.)

 

My point is that an active and knowledgeable owner can (an in the long term will) do well even over a 16 game season by using all, and as many tools as possible. Sure the 'Taco's' of the league may have a couple season's here and there where they are juggernauts (we have one this year – rarely uses waivers, lost Jordy, but fell into DeAngelo and Watkins late in the season and now making a run. This owner however has finished bottom 3 the past 5 seasons.

 

I should add that it's really up to you and your league to determine and seek out ways to eliminate the luck factor – creating an environment where strategy and good owners rise to the top. Much in the way a poker game among good players is usually more fun and competitive for their skill level. While beats and poor luck still occur, the frequency and means at which they arise are scaled down when compared to a low stakes and friendly game among amateurs – which is typically painful and no fun for experts. Yet, I can say from experience if you can keep them at the table long enough, you will almost always walk away with all of their chips. The same goes for fantasy. If there are bad owners who succeed due to luck, over time they will lose more then those utilizing fantasy knowledge and skill.

 

Creating rules that penalize poor ownership or the lucky bad owners (remember, there are lucky, skilled owners too!) and payouts and rewards for results and statistics associated with results based more on skill then luck really do well to combat what I assume is the rationale behind your stance.

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If forte and Charles didn't get hurt ZWR theory worked great getting Marshall, Landry, M Bryant and Later trading for B Cooks before he got good.

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Yes of course. Im just claiming FF is highly tilted towartds the luck side. Around 90%. The 10% being those baseline skills wich are drafting semi smartly, knowing the nfl and the players, making timely WW pickups. The fact that i regularly see tacos who dont even have those baseline skills still win in FF is further evidence to my case.

 

Someone can go into a draft with zero knowledge, just take the top name of an espn cheat sheet every round and set their lineup using projections and win it all. Easily. Very easily. They may need some WW smarts, but thats only one skill of the three baselines needed.

Someone could draft like that. But we both agree that their team can get decimated too. My claim, not believing luck is a force, is that this person will have injury troubles *at the same rate over years of play* as the person who pays more attention. So that equals out, as chance does over time. And what are we left with? The difference of skill :)

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An auction league requires some skill. You need to be constantly adapting during the draft, based on how the draft is going and for what price players are going for. It is not purely luck in a snake draft either, regardless if you have a taco or two in your league. There is definitely some skill to fantasy football. There is a skill to trading for example.

 

While the quote about it's skill up until kickoff (great line btw) is true to an extent, the better team has a higher percentage chance of winning. And chances are the higher skilled owner has the better team. So while luck is major factor each week, overall the better teams usually end up in the playoffs and ultimately winning the championship.

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An auction league requires some skill. You need to be constantly adapting during the draft, based on how the draft is going and for what price players are going for. It is not purely luck in a snake draft either, regardless if you have a taco or two in your league. There is definitely some skill to fantasy football. There is a skill to trading for example.

 

While the quote about it's skill up until kickoff (great line btw) is true to an extent, the better team has a higher percentage chance of winning. And chances are the higher skilled owner has the better team. So while luck is major factor each week, overall the better teams usually end up in the playoffs and ultimately winning the championship.

The bolded is blatantly false and completely subjective. Theres 3 tiers of skilled player in every FF league at very most. Ill go over them now. This is hard fact, set in stone.

 

Top tier- Anyone who watches football, goes on message boards and knows advanced draft theory and how to implement them. Knows how to play the ww and make informed trades/starts/sits. 99% of FFtoday members.

 

Middle tier- Guys who kind of know some of that stuff but mostly just know who Tom Brady is and that Jerry Rice was a good player. Casual fan, might forget to set his lineup for thursday games and largely ignores the WW. Will pick up guys off FA every once in awhile.

 

Taco tier- They are just there because the draft is fun and thats the extent of their involvement. they think FF ends at the draft and you have to teach them how to set their lineup. Making roster moves is like algebra to them and they cant be bothered and dont know football enough even if they did.

 

Most money leagues are going to be made up of 7-8 top tier, 1-2 middle tier and 1-2 taco tier. If you are in a league with all top tier, its 100% luck. Everyone knows the game and its just a matter of who got players that werent busts and whos players score higher each week. There is no "one guy is more skilled". No, everyone knows their football and knows how to draft so its just friendly competition and let the best man win and have fun. No competetive edge to be found besides who was higher on the WW when the big injury happened, thats it. Your delusional if you think theres more to it than that. you can listen to all the podcasts and articles you want, you can be beaten every week. Maybe its 160-59 or maybe its 70-65, you can be beaten.

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The bolded is blatantly false and completely subjective. Theres 3 tiers of skilled player in every FF league at very most. Ill go over them now. This is hard fact, set in stone.

 

Top tier- Anyone who watches football, goes on message boards and knows advanced draft theory and how to implement them. Knows how to play the ww and make informed trades/starts/sits. 99% of FFtoday members.

 

Middle tier- Guys who kind of know some of that stuff but mostly just know who Tom Brady is and that Jerry Rice was a good player. Casual fan, might forget to set his lineup for thursday games and largely ignores the WW. Will pick up guys off FA every once in awhile.

 

Taco tier- They are just there because the draft is fun and thats the extent of their involvement. they think FF ends at the draft and you have to teach them how to set their lineup. Making roster moves is like algebra to them and they cant be bothered and dont know football enough even if they did.

 

Most money leagues are going to be made up of 7-8 top tier, 1-2 middle tier and 1-2 taco tier. If you are in a league with all top tier, its 100% luck. Everyone knows the game and its just a matter of who got players that werent busts and whos players score higher each week. There is no "one guy is more skilled". No, everyone knows their football and knows how to draft so its just friendly competition and let the best man win and have fun. No competetive edge to be found besides who was higher on the WW when the big injury happened, thats it. Your delusional if you think theres more to it than that. you can listen to all the podcasts and articles you want, you can be beaten every week. Maybe its 160-59 or maybe its 70-65, you can be beaten.

OK. What is your evidence for any of those claims? I want data. Show me finishing places from ten years of a league and point to everyone's 500 average. If there are people who do better consistently, show me that it's all draft and basic waivers. Don't just tell me "it's thus way", prove it.

 

The evidence for my claim just is those stratified players, year after year. 90% luck (where did you get that number?) would indicate otherwise. Last time I raised that point, you just said "some guys are luckier" like it's a trait they have. Fate or destiny or something mystical.

 

Look: two players, guys not on rosters, go off in a given week for 10-150-2. Which one should you grab? Btw, one has never had more than 2 targets in any game before that, over three years. The other has been averaging six targets a game this year, got eight last week, but this is first big game.

 

1) is there ANY reason, do you personally think, to think one will perform better than the other next week?

 

2) isn't that something you are not counting as 'making a difference', targets?

 

In the end, you just gave the same argument you've been giving: you can do extra research, but you CAN be beaten. But, again, no one is arguing that research means you cannot be beaten. We're just saying it makes it less likely. My evidence is the stratification of players, which you are saying only happens because of drafting, and having waiver priority. But WHO to spend your waiver on? It's almost like stats and trends are important there...

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Yes you take the guy who obviously has more potential for targets. All these examples fall under the umbrella of baseline fantasy knowlegde to be in my tier 1 from the above 3 tiers. Common sense among fantasy players that bother to sign up for FF message boards.

 

I know we are spinning our wheels and the truth is your right , those are basics that make a difference. They won't win you a title, but they could get you to the playoffs. Actually winning a playoff game is 100% luck. But using these common sense strategies and tactics yes, you can set yourself apart season to season. I guess what I'm saying is that there is skill involved, until everyone else knows those strategies as well, then there's no more edge.

 

Every year I make masterful roster moves, pick up guys well in advance, baffle minds with my preparation and research. Then once kickoff happens I lose when Cecil shorts has his career best game and my all pros decide not to play.

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Yes you take the guy who obviously has more potential for targets. All these examples fall under the umbrella of baseline fantasy knowlegde to be in my tier 1 from the above 3 tiers. Common sense among fantasy players that bother to sign up for FF message boards.

 

I know we are spinning our wheels and the truth is your right , those are basics that make a difference. They won't win you a title, but they could get you to the playoffs. Actually winning a playoff game is 100% luck. But using these common sense strategies and tactics yes, you can set yourself apart season to season. I guess what I'm saying is that there is skill involved, until everyone else knows those strategies as well, then there's no more edge.

 

Every year I make masterful roster moves, pick up guys well in advance, baffle minds with my preparation and research. Then once kickoff happens I lose when Cecil shorts has his career best game and my all pros decide not to play.

Well, we're almost agreeing at this point :) my original claim was that there is a lot of skill involved (even though there is also luck), and my point was that paying attention to things like snap counts and targets and SOS, which is still kinda new stuff, makes a difference and is not just luck. I also think, with just anecdotal evidence, that those things are not yet baseline for most FF owners. I think most people look at previous points, other positions that affect the player (who their QB is, for example), and injury history, and maybe a rough idea of SOS. But that's about it, I suspect.

 

Take Langford last weekend--Rams are 'tough against the run', but I started him with some confidence because of analysis I found that indicated that they are tough on RBs but allow passing yards to RBs. That, and someone here commenting about Langford's pass catching in college added up to me. And that's not baseline stuff, I think.

 

I will disagree about playoff games, though. They aren't any different than regular season games in how they are played. The outcome is just more final for your team :)

 

There's a lot of 'things outside of our control' once the game starts. But what happens to my points after the game starts is a direct effect of what I did *before* the game started. :)

 

Gotta eat dinner, peace.

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I agree that FF is 90-10 luck. If you've played this game long enough you see and know it to be fact. And playing with and in leagues over a period of proves that. It is what it is.

 

Little things like where you draft from to the way head to head matchups control the destiny of ones team. There are so many in variables that you don't and cannot forsee on draft day that prove it's luck.

 

If you believe it's skill, I get that. If you believe it's luck, I get that also. But the truth of FF is somewhere in between and odds are, those that hit it right will tell you it was more luck than skill.

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Case in point: How many times have you walked away from a draft and said to yourself "This is the team" only to go into week 10 in the middle of the pack asking yourself what you should have done differently? If your honest, many times.

 

And playing the WW is luck in many leagues. Trades also. Too many things have to go right to win in competition leagues.

 

The only way I would get into large money leagues would be those that base them on points for the year standings. Eliminating head to head. There is to much luck involved with head to head.

 

The true value of an owner is points for the year. The owner who wins that, is the owner who deserves to win it all. But head to head makes the game more enjoyable and keeps those with shitty teams in it.

 

More money on the WW. More interest.

 

All of the reasons I listed above prove it's the luck of the draw when playing in leagues who know what they are doing. Hence my argument of it being more luck than skill.

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I agree total points is the true measure of who had the best season. Head to head is a crapshoot. But it's also the most fun. Total points is boring and doesn't stir competition.

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Will I won't play fantasy football if I felt like it was just all about luck , I like to think the skillful moves I made from the draft all the way until the end where made because I was better than the other owners . Luck would just make playing the game boring . Why do any off season homework . And we all do we all prepare , why than would you if it's just a matter of chance . Nope not me . I'm playing because it's a game of skill to out wit the other owners . And that's my story and I'm sticking to it . God Bless .

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Total points is the only way to measure a team and your true skill. If you consistently win that category, you've got skills in this game. It's the best measure bar none.

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Will I won't play fantasy football if I felt like it was just all about luck , I like to think the skillful moves I made from the draft all the way until the end where made because I was better than the other owners . Luck would just make playing the game boring . Why do any off season homework . And we all do we all prepare , why than would you if it's just a matter of chance . Nope not me . I'm playing because it's a game of skill to out wit the other owners . And that's my story and I'm sticking to it . God Bless .

Lol outwit. You go get em! Deftly and skillfully make those starts and sits!

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What cracks me up the most about guys who believe it's mostly skill compared to luck is the simple fact that the supposed experts who do multiple mock drafts weeks and months before the season starts aren't very good either. And they are paid to guide us.

 

Go back and look at the multiple mock drafts by the supposed experts and show me one that was remotely close in their picks regardless of draft position. This years first round was a disaster according to all expert mocks we read now.

 

Unless you were Biff from Back To The Future and knew the outcome of all NfL events, your year is sliding into sh!t or being saved by luck.

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What cracks me up the most about guys who believe it's mostly skill compared to luck is the simple fact that the supposed experts who do multiple mock drafts weeks and months before the season starts aren't very good either. And they are paid to guide us.

 

Go back and look at the multiple mock drafts by the supposed experts and show me one that was remotely close in their picks regardless of draft position. This years first round was a disaster according to all expert mocks we read now.

 

Unless you were Biff from Back To The Future and knew the outcome of all NfL events, your year is sliding into sh!t or being saved by luck.

 

I'd argue that a good owner can mange a poorly drafted fantasy team or one racked with early injuries into contention.

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I'd argue that a good owner can mange a poorly drafted fantasy team or one racked with early injuries into contention.

Def true. Bad drafts don't mean bad years anymore since you can still hit on the middle rounds and free agency and be fine. I usually draft nothing but busts for the first 3-4 rounds and still end up with good teams. This year Luck, AJ, JMatthews, Ameer. Great draft. But then Doug, Freeman, trading for Landry and I'm still in contention holding a playoff spot.

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I'd argue that a good owner can mange a poorly drafted fantasy team or one racked with early injuries into contention.

And this is why sandbagging is starting to play a factor. Why should I draft well and you always get the first to pick up people. After the year starts everybody can watch 30 minutes of ESPN and be the genius to find a Charcandrick West, Devonta Freeman, Karlos Williams, Deangelo Williams, Jeremy Langford, Thomas Rawls. If your the person landing the hot players then there has to be a reason rather its - cheap people in the league, people who don't care enough, or your league is designed to help people that suks.

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Before the age of the internet, then yes there was a lot of skill, knowing where to find the crap to make your team strong...

 

With everything available on the web and hell even networks taking up the airwaves with fantasy football shows, it is all luck...

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Lol outwit. You go get em! Deftly and skillfully make those starts and sits!

Lol darn righty .

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This was def the year that will put ZRB on the map. Watch it blow up in peoples faces next year.

A few years now in 2 leagues I am in. You just said more than you even know. RBBC and QBs who don't sit in the pocket has made the RB position a 12-15 carry nitemare. There is something to be said however if 11 people use the same technique at a draft and you find 2 RBs out of a few teams left in the NFL that still use 1 workhorse RB. The game changes, it allows Cam Newton to run 2 yards at a goal-line and dance and some how have his head above his shoulders at the end of a game.

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