Crowell this week

[Vikes_Fan 8]

So I know all the projection systems still don't seem to like him, but I'm curious what the experts think of him vs. the Patriots this week. I've got other options (picked up DWash and Terrance West) who both get to play against a softer team along with Freeman who is likely to see the bulk of the work against Denver. The Pats have been hit or miss against the run this season.

[MDC 5,893]

What makes you say Freeman will see the bulk of work vs Denver?

[Mark91G 13]

1. yeah I have freeman and west can decide who to play between them.

freeman should get a bulk since coleman wont be playing and Denver have 3 top CB's so throwing might be a big ask and when he dose throw chances are freeman will be the target out the back field to avoid the CB's

but west looks set to be the only healthy back against a poor Washington d line

as for crowell I can see him having a good game but the pats will be out to prove something this week and the place will have a huge lift with brady back id say he has a good ( not great) ceiling but a very low floor this week.

[Vikes_Fan 8]

What makes you say Freeman will see the bulk of work vs Denver?

Coleman has the Sickle Cell trait. Last player with that trait that played in Denver pretty much saw his career ended after needing surgery to remove his spleen and (I believe) his pancreas. What I've read on PFT is that the Falcons are going to take it easy with Coleman, meaning Freeman will likely be a number 1 back (at least in terms of touches)... now that all changes if Denver gets out to a big lead obviously, but given that they aren't an offensive minded team (and could be down their QB), I don't see that happening.

[Mark91G 13]

can I ask you guys if u had to choose between west and freeman this week who would you go with ?

 

I agree with freeman being the work horse this week and should see some passes his way but west has a much easier task this week

[Vikes_Fan 8]

can I ask you guys if u had to choose between west and freeman this week who would you go with ?

 

I agree with freeman being the work horse this week and should see some passes his way but west has a much easier task this week

 

I'm going with both right now.... real question for me is whether or not Crowel is worth starting, but you basically said it... low floor. That's the real problem there.

 

If you put a gun to my head and forced me to make a decision, I'd probably go with Freeman. His matchup is tougher, but he's also on a better team and should get the lions share of the work. West will have some competition for carries, and his coach is mum on whether or not he's going to be the workhorse going forward. Granted, Forsett is gone, but I believe Dixon may get some work there. Baltimore is also is not as good. Truthfully though, each of those guys could get 100 and a score. And each could get 20 and nothing.

[Mark91G 13]

 

I'm going with both right now.... real question for me is whether or not Crowel is worth starting, but you basically said it... low floor. That's the real problem there.

 

If you put a gun to my head and forced me to make a decision, I'd probably go with Freeman. His matchup is tougher, but he's also on a better team and should get the lions share of the work. West will have some competition for carries, and his coach is mum on whether or not he's going to be the workhorse going forward. Granted, Forsett is gone, but I believe Dixon may get some work there. Baltimore is also is not as good. Truthfully though, each of those guys could get 100 and a score. And each could get 20 and nothing.

yeah the issue is the low floors I think ill stick with freeman based on the fact that I cant see the falcons wanting to go with a throw heavy offence against a d that rush so well and have 3 top CB's

 

so I think he will get a lot of touches and also will see a few passes dropped out to him

[Vikes_Fan 8]

well, I hope the Falcons throw it. Wilson is on bye, which means I'm starting Ryan.

[Mark91G 13]

well, I hope the Falcons throw it. Wilson is on bye, which means I'm starting Ryan.

brees is on a bye for me so am in the same position, If they run I will loose out on QB points.

 

the best thing that can happen for me is they throw it to the red zone and let freeman carry it in

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

I'm rolling Crowell until it doesn't work.

[weepaws 2,461]

PPR I'm diffently rolling with Freeman.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

PPR I'm diffently rolling with Freeman.

 

He's choosing between Crowell, DWash or T West to go with Freeman. At least that's how i read it.

[American Chewy 98]

Browns seem committed to giving crowell 15+ touches no matter what the score is. The way that offensive line is playing he is a threat to break a long one at any moment...was a shoestring tackle away from another long td last week. Browns at home helps too, most of thier games have played out to where they keep it close then blow it...prob more of the same this week. like someone else said I'm riding him till it doesn't work. Fwiw im starting him over wallace and powell.

[plasma george 52]

well, I hope the Falcons throw it. Wilson is on bye, which means I'm starting Ryan.

Wilson on a Bye is why you're giving the #1 QB a Start ?

 

I have Crowell vs CJ Anderson, leaning toward CJ.

[Mark91G 13]

Wilson on a Bye is why you're giving the #1 QB a Start ?

 

I have Crowell vs CJ Anderson, leaning toward CJ.

ryan is the number one but he is up against a rush d that are forcing any qb to throw fast and that's not what u want to be doing against 3 of the top Cbs in the league am not saying he cant find away but his floor this week is very low.

 

I would lean towards CJ aswell for same reason as above both have a high ceiling but crowells floor is lower

[weepaws 2,461]

Mark91g asked between West and Freeman.

[GobbleDog 816]

Ain't expecting much from Crowell this week, but hell I haven't expected anything from him all year, so who knows.

 

At the very least, he's a lock for 15-20+ touches. That's good enough fer me.

[giraldi02 470]

Wilson on a Bye is why you're giving the #1 QB a Start ?

 

I have Crowell vs CJ Anderson, leaning toward CJ.

 

I'd lean CJA myself here. The Falcons are going to be missing three linebackers for this game. Dude could run wild

[Ray_T 591]

So I know all the projection systems still don't seem to like him, but I'm curious what the experts think of him vs. the Patriots this week. I've got other options (picked up DWash and Terrance West) who both get to play against a softer team along with Freeman who is likely to see the bulk of the work against Denver. The Pats have been hit or miss against the run this season.

Lots of the projection systems run a regression to estimate what that player will do in the future. Many (but not all) of these are based solely on past stats to predict future production.

 

So when a player gets a new coach and perhaps a new system, the stats projections dont necessarily do a great job of projecting that player until he has played enough games under the new coach to be able to project.

 

if that player had the same coach and the same offense last year, the projection has a reasonable chance of projecting that players production effectively.

 

but the system has a hard time accounting for changes.

 

that can include (but are not limited to) the following:

 

change of coach

Change of offensive philosophy

new players on the O line (or on the offense in general)

Improvement of said players skills (typically an issue for young players who didnt perform at a high level in year 1)

Change of reps based on the player landing at a different spot on the depth chart.

[mobb_deep 917]

Duke will outscore Crowell this week.

[American Chewy 98]

Duke will outscore Crowell this week.

This week would certainly be duke's best shot

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I'm starting Crowell but I don't think it's a good matchup for him. Pats are going to sell out to stop the run so the rookie QB has to beat them. Still Crowell could break one or pile up some garbage time stats