Jay Ajayi

[Oriole8159 86]

Freeman and Ajayi are two different backs with different styles and risk factors.

 

Ajayi has health issues. I'm not worried about the concussion. it's the only one of his career. If it was a bad one, he would have been out of action for longer than a month. he was out a couple weeks and that second week may have been unnecessary. He will be fine. I am more concerned with a bone on bone condition in one of his knees (I forget which knee it is)

 

This will likely shorten his career by a year or two, but shouldnt affect his production in the near future.

 

Freeman's issue is that he has a very similar back in Tevin Coleman playing on the same team that takes significant carries away from him.

 

while I predict and expect that both will put up fairly similar numbers over the course of the season, I personally would prefer the workhorse who does not share carries with another back. So I'd rank Ajayi a little higher even though Freeman has a bit more talent and ability.

 

so for me, the situation is better for Ajayi than it is for Freeman. If Coleman were to get hurt and miss significant time this year, then I'd rank Freeman ahead of Ajayi.

 

but that is not currently the case, so I rank Ajayi higher.

 

More out of personal preference due to situation than out of any expectation of better production.

I agree on your analysis 100%, but to play devil's advocate, what Freeman has going for him is at least certainty. Even with Coleman sharing the load, Freeman was still a no question RB1 last year, and he should still be this year. They wouldn't have signed him to that contract if they didn't intend to continue featuring him.

He may not have the upside of Ajayi, but I think he brings alot of certainty, and there's value in that early in the draft.

 

Freeman may not win you your league, but I think you can take him and confidently know he won't lose it for you. Gambling on Ajayi early can lose you your league.

[weepaws 3,191]

Great reply above.

[plasma george 62]

Ajayi could've had 3 last night, not sure why the OC would ever let Cutler throw on 1st down at the 2 yard line with Ajayi watching the inevitable pic 6. Unless he wants that pink slip on Monday.

 

Oriole, nice post.....I think I'm moving him up, I'm pic 10 and he'll be staring be in the face.

But, who the fock cares what knee ?

[TennisMenace 156]

I will have no problem owning him if he falls into my lap. I know he didn't go off every week last year, but I know he will get his 20 touches and that he is capable of going off plus goalline carries.

 

I don't think he is as valuable in PPR league though.

[Ray_T 753]

I agree on your analysis 100%, but to play devil's advocate, what Freeman has going for him is at least certainty. Even with Coleman sharing the load, Freeman was still a no question RB1 last year, and he should still be this year. They wouldn't have signed him to that contract if they didn't intend to continue featuring him.

He may not have the upside of Ajayi, but I think he brings alot of certainty, and there's value in that early in the draft.

 

Freeman may not win you your league, but I think you can take him and confidently know he won't lose it for you. Gambling on Ajayi early can lose you your league.

I dont disagree.

 

like I said, I expect both backs to put up similar numbers over the year. I have a preference for high volume players who dont share the workload with anyone else.

 

That's my bias. and I'll live or die on that one.

 

the reality is you really cant go too far wrong by drafting either back. They are both good buys.

[Mike Nice 40]

I will have no problem owning him if he falls into my lap. I know he didn't go off every week last year, but I know he will get his 20 touches and that he is capable of going off plus goalline carries.

I don't think he is as valuable in PPR league though.

He was in on all 3 3rd and longs. Played 19/19 snaps with starters

[Oriole8159 86]

Sitting at 10, would you guys take him over Melvin Gordon?

[plasma george 62]

Same boat here, I'm hoping I don't have to make that decision.

I guess I'm OK with Freeman/Ajai/Gordon, then locking up Jordy/AJ Green. Or I grab 2 RBs, or Rodgers/Brady at 11.

The issue is we're in Philly, so everyone has a huge hardon for Ajai now, some of my owners were at the game.

 

Johnson

Bell

AB

Julio

Beckham

Zeke

Evans

Ajai

Gordon

Freeman

[Oriole8159 86]

Same boat here, I'm hoping I don't have to make that decision.

I guess I'm OK with Freeman/Ajai/Gordon, then locking up Jordy/AJ Green. Or I grab 2 RBs, or Rodgers/Brady at 11.

The issue is we're in Philly, so everyone has a huge hardon for Ajai now, some of my owners were at the game.

 

Johnson

Bell

AB

Julio

Beckham

Zeke

Evans

Ajai

Gordon

Freeman

ideally I'd love for the game to jump him up above me in the first as I'd love to go AJ/Jordy, but very likely I'm going to have to make a decision on one RB.

this just complicates it even more.

[Ray_T 753]

Sitting at 10, would you guys take him over Melvin Gordon?

In redraft, yes,

 

in a keeper/dynasty I'd take Gordon.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,343]

Sitting at 10, would you guys take him over Melvin Gordon?

 

nope give me the better offense and defense with the Chargers over that of Miami

 

but at 10, I would consider snagging both, nothing like having 2 RB1's, especially when I hate every WR going in the 2nd, I would rather pair it with Demaryius and Hill/Crabtree in the 3/4

[weepaws 3,191]

What you must be kidding, Ajayi over Gordon.

 

No way.

 

Gordon will indeed be the third highest scoring ff Rb this season.

 

No situation do you take Ajayi over him.

[Crystal Meth Tweekers 26]

I know I am a Dolphin fan but Ajayi looks really good. Gase likes to run and thats the teams plan. Those deep Cutler passes opens up the offense.

[Ray_T 753]

What you must be kidding, Ajayi over Gordon.

 

No way.

 

Gordon will indeed be the third highest scoring ff Rb this season.

 

No situation do you take Ajayi over him.

have you watched the chargers in exhibition?

 

I watched part of 2 games and from what I saw their line has been horrible.

 

maybe I got a bad snapshot because I didnt watch the full games, but what I did see didnt look good. there are some posts elsewhere on this (and other boards) that basically said the same.

 

I have to downgrade him a bit for this year unless I see something to change my mind.

[weepaws 3,191]

You don't want to take Ajayi over Gordon.

[Mike Nice 40]

Gordon imo is the most over rated rb going in the first. He was inflated by tds, and he was under 4 ypc last year. That being said he doesn't have much competition, although I think Oliver takes over as the passing down back. I think Ajayi has the higher ceiling.

[Oriole8159 86]

thanks for the advice guys.

[brotherbock 349]

have you watched the chargers in exhibition?

 

I watched part of 2 games and from what I saw their line has been horrible.

 

This. Chargers are going to suck hard this year.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,343]

 

This. Chargers are going to suck hard this year.

 

obviously you dont follow the NFL

 

The Chargers offense is top 8 or so

[Ray_T 753]

You don't want to take Ajayi over Gordon.

well, that is likely what I'm gonna do if given the choice.

 

but, I do draft late enough that my choice may well be made for me.

 

only time will tell....

[brotherbock 349]

 

obviously you dont follow the NFL

 

The Chargers offense is top 8 or so

 

So sorry for not agreeing with you, oh great one. Clearly your majesty has blinded me to the holy truths of the universe.

[Ray_T 753]

 

obviously you dont follow the NFL

 

The Chargers offense is top 8 or so

they were not ranked to 8 last year.

 

they needed another 2-300 yards of offense to be top 8.

 

going on the assumption they will need the same level of offense to be top 8, Rivers will have to throw for another 250-300 yards (meaning 4500 yards passing) or they will need Gordon to get another 250-300 yards (or some splt)

 

I'm not seeing that big a bump to Gordon's numbers. the line just does not look good enough yet.

 

that being said, they are young players, and I think things on the line will come around, But it will take a few games.

 

I'm all onboard for Gordon next year. I just dont think he's gonna have a big year this year.

 

I'm looking at a bit more than what he did last year. Maybe a shade over 1000 yards rushing. I think receiving numbers will be comparable, but TD's in the red zone will be down from last year because Rivers had a few more targets in the pass game so it wont be just pounding the ball with Gordon inside the 10.

[brotherbock 349]

they were not ranked to 8 last year.

 

they needed another 2-300 yards of offense to be top 8.

 

going on the assumption they will need the same level of offense to be top 8, Rivers will have to throw for another 250-300 yards (meaning 4500 yards passing) or they will need Gordon to get another 250-300 yards (or some splt)

 

I'm not seeing that big a bump to Gordon's numbers. the line just does not look good enough yet.

 

that being said, they are young players, and I think things on the line will come around, But it will take a few games.

 

I'm all onboard for Gordon next year. I just dont think he's gonna have a big year this year.

 

I'm looking at a bit more than what he did last year. Maybe a shade over 1000 yards rushing. I think receiving numbers will be comparable, but TD's in the red zone will be down from last year because Rivers had a few more targets in the pass game so it wont be just pounding the ball with Gordon inside the 10.

 

I don't see their O-Line doing any better this year. They've had a terrible line for what, 10 years or so. I'll believe that Allen can be healthy after I see him play a full season, and I'll believe that they'll let Henry play ahead of Gates after I see that happen too. The Chargers are a team with talent that gets run into the ground by management. Won't be different this year.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,343]

they were not ranked to 8 last year.

 

they needed another 2-300 yards of offense to be top 8.

 

going on the assumption they will need the same level of offense to be top 8, Rivers will have to throw for another 250-300 yards (meaning 4500 yards passing) or they will need Gordon to get another 250-300 yards (or some splt)

 

I'm not seeing that big a bump to Gordon's numbers. the line just does not look good enough yet.

 

that being said, they are young players, and I think things on the line will come around, But it will take a few games.

 

I'm all onboard for Gordon next year. I just dont think he's gonna have a big year this year.

 

I'm looking at a bit more than what he did last year. Maybe a shade over 1000 yards rushing. I think receiving numbers will be comparable, but TD's in the red zone will be down from last year because Rivers had a few more targets in the pass game so it wont be just pounding the ball with Gordon inside the 10.

Which is why I said or so. I think they are just a tad bit better with healthy Allen Benjamin and second year of Henry. Also Mike Williams will play some at some point

 

Last year they finished 9th and that was with 3 undrafted WRs in Williams Inman and burse

[Ray_T 753]

 

I don't see their O-Line doing any better this year. They've had a terrible line for what, 10 years or so. I'll believe that Allen can be healthy after I see him play a full season, and I'll believe that they'll let Henry play ahead of Gates after I see that happen too. The Chargers are a team with talent that gets run into the ground by management. Won't be different this year.

Their line will be better.

 

in this year's draft they got what is considered to be the two best guards in the draft.

 

Last year they got what was considered the best pulling center in the draft (tuerk)

 

make no mistake, the line has a bright future.

 

but it often takes a half year to a full year (and sometimes up to 2 years) for a top draft pick to realize their potential. so there will be growing pains, but I do think this line will be top notch within 2 years.

 

but this year will have its ups and downs

[brotherbock 349]

Their line will be better.

 

in this year's draft they got what is considered to be the two best guards in the draft.

 

Last year they got what was considered the best pulling center in the draft (tuerk)

 

make no mistake, the line has a bright future.

 

but it often takes a half year to a full year (and sometimes up to 2 years) for a top draft pick to realize their potential. so there will be growing pains, but I do think this line will be top notch within 2 years.

 

but this year will have its ups and downs

 

I still see a mess.

 

Tuerk is suspended 4 games for PEDs last I heard, Pulley is still starting over him anyway, Lamp tore his ACL, they allowed 8 sacks against the Saints in preseason (Saints were 27th in the league in sacks last year), they're swapping people all over the place (moving Slauson from Center, not sure where to put Feeney).

 

They were the 21st ranked Oline last year according to PFF, so they have room to improve. But I don't see it happening this year.

[Ray_T 753]

 

I still see a mess.

 

Tuerk is suspended 4 games for PEDs last I heard, Pulley is still starting over him anyway, Lamp tore his ACL, they allowed 8 sacks against the Saints in preseason (Saints were 27th in the league in sacks last year), they're swapping people all over the place (moving Slauson from Center, not sure where to put Feeney).

 

They were the 21st ranked Oline last year according to PFF, so they have room to improve. But I don't see it happening this year.

well, I was saying something similar, but not quite the same.

 

on other threads I noted the turnover on the line. even with Lamp gone, Tuerk and Feeny represent 40% of the line and both are effectively rookies. Tuerk redshirted last year after an injury.

 

so with that kind of turnover, even if the players are good, it takes a while for them to learn the pro game, to learn to play as a unit etc.

 

I was expecting the first 6-8 games to be rough.

 

I had heard that Tuerk was in competition for the starting center spot, but that it was likely he would start out at guard.

 

be that as it may, hes out 4 games and this will set the line back a few more games. The line had a lot of promise at the start of the year, and so much has gone wrong in a short period of time.

 

This does not bode well for Gordon's numbers this year.

 

Initially I predicted a modest improvement in stats year over year, then I said a slight improvement, now I'm questioning whether his stats will improve at all.

 

maybe that's just the pessimist in me, In the end I think I'll stick with 'slight improvement or no change' from last year. That places him solidly into high end RB2 or low end RB1 territory.

 

but I still do believe next year is the year to draft (or buy him) and I'll stick to that prediction.

 

This year.... dont hold your breath., draft him in keeper/dynasty leagues. Make sure you dont overpay for him in redrafts.

[Jedi Sensei 17]

Back to Ajayi, Gase's offense regularly produces RBS w/1000yd+ rushing and 500yd+ rcv, from Knowshon Moreno to Matt Forte to...well, Jay Ajayi. He's got no real back-up, and he's in an offense that will be productive. I think he's a lock for top 10 RBs this year, barring injury.

 

Problem is he's got a tough sked down the stretch, with CAR, NE, DEN, NE, BUF for the last 5 games of the (FF) season.

 

So I see him starting strong but tapering off; pair him with a guy who has a soft FF playoff sked and you're gold.

[brotherbock 349]

 

 

maybe that's just the pessimist in me, In the end I think I'll stick with 'slight improvement or no change' from last year. That places him solidly into high end RB2 or low end RB1 territory.

 

but I still do believe next year is the year to draft (or buy him) and I'll stick to that prediction.

 

This year.... dont hold your breath., draft him in keeper/dynasty leagues. Make sure you dont overpay for him in redrafts.

 

That's fair enough. I'm going to go with 'suck' to 'same as last year', given the Charger's ever-present terrible management. I still see a lot of room for disaster.

[Ray_T 753]

Back to Ajayi, Gase's offense regularly produces RBS w/1000yd+ rushing and 500yd+ rcv, from Knowshon Moreno to Matt Forte to...well, Jay Ajayi. He's got no real back-up, and he's in an offense that will be productive. I think he's a lock for top 10 RBs this year, barring injury.

 

Problem is he's got a tough sked down the stretch, with CAR, NE, DEN, NE, BUF for the last 5 games of the (FF) season.

 

So I see him starting strong but tapering off; pair him with a guy who has a soft FF playoff sked and you're gold.

Well, Ajayi's scouting report coming out of college said he was capable of being a pass catcher. We never saw much of that last year, but I'm speculating that they may try to add this element to his game.

 

Cutler seems willing to dump the ball off to his RB (as can be seen with Forte's numbers when he played with cutler) so I see some potential upside with this kid.

 

I am targeting him in a couple of my leagues.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

You don't want to take Ajayi over Gordon.

Yes I do lol

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Gordon imo is the most over rated rb going in the first. He was inflated by tds, and he was under 4 ypc last year. That being said he doesn't have much competition, although I think Oliver takes over as the passing down back. I think Ajayi has the higher ceiling.

I completely agree here.

 

2 seasons with under 4.0 ypc and that's the guy you want? Why?

Gordon's success is so TD dependent that his week to week totals would be impossible to predict.

 

Reason I prefer Ajayi is I think he will be more involved in the passing game and will improve on his 27 receptions for 151 from last year.

 

Philip rivers is the focal point of Chargers offense and he will continue to sling it.

 

With Tannehill out, the Dolphins will rely on Ajayi A TON.