Hall of Fame Kevin Greene Dead at 58

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

1 minute ago, JustinCharge said:

Because Belichick always drums rookie QBs leading to a win.  That win didn't come this time.

I guess always is subjective. Helps when you have Tom Brady and not a guy who can’t throw going against, as you said, an elite defense. And the Herbert game was aided by special teams. Herbert doesn’t play special teams. Amd the chargers Defense isn’t close to being elite. Take the L. Your logic was flawed, based on a team that doesn’t exist anymore. Past is not always prologue. It’s a fools errand to base everything on it. 

[RLLD 4,230]

1 hour ago, JustinCharge said:

My formula for determining super bowl champions actually says sacks are overrated.  The Dolphins grade out as the best defense in the NFL today using the formula and they are middling in sacks.  The Patriots sometimes have graded in the past as a great defense while being near the bottom of the league in sacks. 

One of the most underrated defensive stats is actually average starting field position of your opponent.  The 2020 Dolphins have gone entire games not allowing the opponent to start their drives any further than the 25 yard line.  That is withering.  Last week vs the Patriots, the Dolphins have the Patriots 1 drive that started outside the 25 yard line.  The Chiefs only got 2 such drives the week before vs the Dolphins.  The week before, the Bengals only got 1 such drive and it was only at their 29. 

When the NFL moved touchbacks from the 20 to the 25 yard line in 2015, it actually juiced the league's offenses.  Because even those 5 bonus yards are amazingly important.

Dooood......  these choads around here don't do this......and I am in some leagues with them......if they understand logic they become competitive......so, stand the fock down  

These retards are more concerned about making Brady a goat, or not accepting reality than actual meaningful assessment, and I prefer them that way.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

1 hour ago, JustinCharge said:

My formula for determining super bowl champions actually says sacks are overrated.  The Dolphins grade out as the best defense in the NFL today using the formula and they are middling in sacks.  The Patriots sometimes have graded in the past as a great defense while being near the bottom of the league in sacks. 

One of the most underrated defensive stats is actually average starting field position of your opponent.  The 2020 Dolphins have gone entire games not allowing the opponent to start their drives any further than the 25 yard line.  That is withering.  Last week vs the Patriots, the Dolphins have the Patriots 1 drive that started outside the 25 yard line.  The Chiefs only got 2 such drives the week before vs the Dolphins.  The week before, the Bengals only got 1 such drive and it was only at their 29. 

When the NFL moved touchbacks from the 20 to the 25 yard line in 2015, it actually juiced the league's offenses.  Because even those 5 bonus yards are amazingly important.

So, the five yards on the touchback is very important, but the 5-10 yards lost on a sack and a loss of downs isn’t. Nurse! 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

7 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

So, the five yards on the touchback is very important, but the 5-10 yards lost on a sack and a loss of downs isn’t. Nurse! 

Sacks occurred before and after the touchback change.  But now teams are getting a free 5 yards on touchbacks, and yup it is significant.  If the NFL did something to increase sacks maybe we would see scoring drop.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

And also, all rookie QB’s are the same. The jerkoffs that have been coming down the pipe in the AFC East for twenty years before Tua and Allen are the same. Geno Smith and JP Losman are great measuring sticks. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

Just now, JustinCharge said:

Sacks occurred before and after the touchback change.  But now teams are getting a free 5 yards on touchbacks, and yup it is significant.

Then losing 5 to 10 and a down is more significant. Take the L. All of your theories are based on what happened before, in an ever changing dynamic. You keep forgetting things change. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

And there is no “formula” to winning a Super Bowl anymore. They have been won in all different ways.  Barry Switzer won one. Same as Andy Reid. Half the Steelers that ever played are in the HOF. They won 6 with three different coaches. Brady and two other guys are going in, one of them a kicker. Patriots won 6 with the same coach Great QB’s have won. Great QB’s have not won. Mediocre QB’s have won. Great defenses have won. Not so great defenses have won. Great RB’s have won. Not so great running backs have won. After 50 something SB’s this should be obvious. 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

3 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

And there is no “formula” to winning a Super Bowl anymore. They have been won in all different ways.  Barry Switzer won one. Same as Andy Reid. Half the Steelers that ever played are in the HOF. They won 6 with three different coaches. Brady and two other guys are going in, one of them a kicker. Patriots won 6 with the same coach Great QB’s have won. Great QB’s have not won. Mediocre QB’s have won. Great defenses have won. Not so great defenses have won. Great RB’s have won. Not so great running backs have won. After 50 something SB’s this should be obvious. 

I do have a formula and it works 100% of the time unless more than 1 team meet the criteria in the same year.  Unfortunately, the last team to meet the criteria were the 2017 Patriots.  The formula says all the teams in 2020 are flawed.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

1 minute ago, JustinCharge said:

I do have a formula and it works 100% of the time unless more than 1 team meet the criteria in the same year.  Unfortunately, the last team to meet the criteria were the 2017 Patriots.

Let me guess, this year it’s either the Chief’s, Packers or Saints? And when did you start applying your formula? 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

5 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Let me guess, this year it’s either the Chief’s, Packers or Saints? 

It really is anyone.  It is random this year. Even the Chiefs, who have just 1 loss, have won their last 6 games by less than a score.

The Colts, when healthy and firing, they just shut down teams in the second half.  That could be enough.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

3 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

It really is anyone.  It is random this year.

No it’s not. If your formula can tell us who will win in certain years, why can’t it tell us who won’t? My formula says the Dolphins won’t. Your turn. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

5 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

It really is anyone.  It is random this year.

It’s random a lot of years. The Giants two wins come to mind. One of the worst Packers teams of Rodgers career won, got every break inthe book. The 15-1 team didn’t win a playoff game at home in the first round. Are you saying that a 15-1 team playing at home against a 9-7 team that was last in the league in rushing and 29th in defense wasn’t dominant according to your formula? 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

No it’s not. If your formula can tell us who will win in certain years, why can’t it tell us who won’t? My formula says the Dolphins won’t. Your turn. 

the formula is only limited to identifying super elite teams that will win it all.  It says either 1 (or more) of those exist in a given year, or if none exists and its wide open.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

Just now, Hardcore troubadour said:

It’s random a lot of years. The Giants two wins come to mind. One of the worst Packers teams of Rodgers career won, got every break inthe book. The 15-1 team didn’t win a playoff game at home in the first round. 

Yes there are quite a few years where there are no super teams.  It is getting more common.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

Last year, everyone's favorite was the Ravens.  The formula said their defense was actually pretty mediocre and could be beaten and they were absolutely no lock.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

14 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

It’s random a lot of years. The Giants two wins come to mind. One of the worst Packers teams of Rodgers career won, got every break inthe book. The 15-1 team didn’t win a playoff game at home in the first round. 

The formula actually said the 2010 Packers team was a super elite team and guaranteed them a super bowl victory.  Out of the wild card spot.  In fact, they were the last team not named the Patriots to get that distinction.  That was an elite defense on that Packer team.  Only 226 points allowed all season.  Dropped 2 OT games so they were 10-6 instead of 12-4.  Not only was that defense giving up nothing, but it had Rodgers in his prime at the controls.  Scary.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

2 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

Last year, everyone's favorite was the Ravens.  The formula said their defense was actually pretty mediocre and could be beaten and they were absolutely no lock.

They lost because of their QB. He sucked. Did you watch the game? 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

3 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

They lost because of their QB. He sucked. Did you watch the game? 

They gave up 200 yards to Henry in a playoff game.  14-2 teams shouldn't be doing that.  The knock on Lamar is he isn't skilled enough to throw you back into the game if you fall behind by a lot.  You could see it coming.  The defense was not good enough to avoid that situation in the playoffs.  Someone was gonna dump points on them and expose that.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

I guess Lamars 3 turnovers didn’t factor in. 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

When I look at the NFL outside of my formula, a lot of teams have paths to a ring.  If the Colts can stay healthy, get their running game sorted, they could go on a deep run and knock off more glitzy teams.  If Lamar can grow as a passer and make the throws he needs to, they could win it all.  If Mahomes continues to pull miracles in the second half, they repeat.  If the Dolphins get great QB play from Tua, they could go deep.  If the Rams see Cam Akers emerge as a serious threat consistently, they could do it.  If the Bills keep this up, sure they could win.  If the Saints can stay healthy, they can win the Lombardi. 

If I had to bet on one of these teams, I'd pick the Buccaneers.  I think the Buccaneers are two different teams.  There is the team where Arians is in control and tries to shoehorn Tom Brady into running an offense not suited to him and that team sucks.  But then sometimes (usually when nothing is working), the Bucs turn everything over to Brady and let him run whatever the hell he wants, and then they just start destroying teams.  A lot of people see that conflict.  I think come playoff time, the odds are good everyone in Tampa swallows their pride and just lets Tom run everything for 4 quarters and they blow everyone away in the playoffs.  But that's just me.  Could be wrong.  Maybe they are idiots.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

30 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I guess Lamars 3 turnovers didn’t factor in. 

Haha you are chipper today.  Its just football. 

[nzoner 937]

Watched Greene's A Football Life episode om NFLN last night,well worth taking the time to do so.

[MDC 7,428]

On 12/22/2020 at 11:11 AM, edjr said:

1st and 10, sack loss of 7 yards. 2nd and 17. completion for 18.    how is sack even helpful?   how about those 1 yard sacks?  like a 3 run save. Useless

only sacks that help lead to possession change should count.

Dear lord.  

[edjr 6,592]

2 minutes ago, MDC said:

Dear lord.  

Truth is hard to contemplate for a liberal, I know.

[MDC 7,428]

31 minutes ago, edjr said:

Truth is hard to contemplate for a liberal, I know.

Let me give you a counter example.

7-yard sack on 1st down. Incompletion on 2nd to brings up 3rd and 17. 15-yard completion on 3rd that would have been a new set of downs of not for the sack on 1st.

I can’t believe I had to type this.

 

[edjr 6,592]

6 minutes ago, MDC said:

Let me give you a counter example.

7-yard sack on 1st down. Incompletion on 2nd to brings up 3rd and 17. 15-yard completion on 3rd that would have been a new set of downs of not for the sack on 1st.

I can’t believe I had to type this.

 

  I can't believe you did either.  What does that have to do with the price of tea in China?

Again for you slower people. Never said "sacks didn't matter",. said they were OVERRATED.  Try to keep up,  please.

[MDC 7,428]

On 12/22/2020 at 11:11 AM, edjr said:

1st and 10, sack loss of 7 yards. 2nd and 17. completion for 18.    how is sack even helpful?   how about those 1 yard sacks?  like a 3 run save. Useless

only sacks that help lead to possession change should count.

Christ almighty.  

[edjr 6,592]

1 minute ago, MDC said:

Christ almighty.  

Did your example lead to a change of possession, you focking halfwit? Now go get me a coffee.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

This is great.

[edjr 6,592]

Let me make this as easy as possible.

Sacks are the Derek Jeter of stats. Overrated. Simple.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

Disintegration in effect. Lol. 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

How does a thread about an NFL HOF’er turn into multiple sissy slap fights?

This place is such a shithole.

[edjr 6,592]

Quote

 

One of the reasons NFL teams struggle with finding quality offensive and defensive linemen is because there are not many stats to accurately grade them. We often turn to sacks in order to grade a defensive lineman. A player with 15 sacks is going to get a lot more attention from the media than a guy with 5 sacks, even if the guy with 5 sacks pressured the quarterback at the same rate and played less snaps. The statistics used to grade linemen, especially on the defensive side, get complicated because the overwhelming majority of people are only going to pay attention to sacks. However, the fact is that sacks are not a great representation of how productive a defensive lineman is in the pass game.

I have found that the most reliable statistic when it comes to grading pass rushers is pass rush win rate. This is the rate at which a pass rusher wins his matchup in under 2.5 seconds. When trying to grade pass rushers, this value will give a much better representation of the effectiveness of a pass rusher.

Let’s use Dallas Cowboys edge rusher Demarcus Lawrence as an example. Lawrence has been a solid pass rusher for a few seasons now, but seemed to fall off in 2019, recording only 5 sacks, a surprisingly low number compared to his last two seasons when he had 14.5 and 10.5. On the surface, this seems like a down year for Lawrence, but he was much more productive as a pass rusher than one might expect. Lawrence recorded a pass rush win rate of .27, meaning 27% of the time, he won his matchup in 2.5 seconds or less. This number ranked third among all edge rushers in 2019, but in sacks, Lawrence ranked outside the top 25.

Now, let’s compare Demarcus Lawrence to someone who had what most would consider a career year. Arizona Cardinals edge rusher Chandler Jones totaled a remarkable 19 sacks in 2019, making his case for defensive player of the year. Jones should not have even been in the conversation for defensive player of the year, and here’s why. Jones recorded a pass rush win rate of .19 this season, ranking 18th among edge rushers. Even players who are considered to be mediocre like Jerry Hughes, Preston Smith, and Matthew Judon posted better pass rush win rates. The thing is, these guys didn’t have close to as many sacks as Jones, so they don’t get the credit they deserve.

Finishing on a play is important, but a pass rusher getting a sack five or six seconds after the ball is snapped has the same value as a sack in the first 2 seconds of the ball being snapped. A pass rusher who can win his matchup a fourth of the time is much more valuable than a pass rusher who ranks outside the top ten in pass rush win rate, no matter how many sacks they have. Demarcus Lawrence received heavy criticism for his performance this season, but the fact is, he had a solid season even though it didn’t show on the score sheet. Grading a defensive lineman is much more complicated than just looking at sacks, so look further than just sacks before making an assumption about a defensive lineman.

 

[MDC 7,428]

7 minutes ago, edjr said:

Did your example lead to a change of possession, you focking halfwit? Now go get me a coffee.

Let me get this straight:

A. 7-yard sack on 1st down but the O picks up a new set of downs anyway.

B. 7-yard sack on first down but the O has to punt.

You think A shouldn’t count but B should? The lineman’s sack should get erased if a DB blows his coverage on 3rd and long or whatever?

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

Imagine Eli was sacked on the Tyree catch? 19-0. Immortality. 

[edjr 6,592]

 

   case rested

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

1 hour ago, edjr said:

What a stupid, stupid article. It takes almost nothing into account but what he wants.  Nothing about chip blocks and double teams, mobile QB’s vs pocket passers, quality of the blockers they went against, outside containment responsibilities for mobile qb’s and pass catching rb’s, pressure up the middle forcing the QB to pick a side either away or towards the pass rushers in question.  E er mind the tackling ability of each player. I guess all the opponents they went against are the same and all the games followed the same script. Yup, let’s just use the 16 games they each played against different opponents in different weather conditions and just act as if it’s all the same. This is about as dumb as the old “when team x runs for 100 yards they are 11-5”. Or “when team y wins the turnover battle they are 12-4”. No shite. It’s as if the people that eat  this drivel up never watched much football or played any. Cant wait for launch angle or some other stupid, meaningless term to become part of football “analysis “. As if there aren’t enough already. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

44 minutes ago, edjr said:

 

   case rested

Show the ones when him and his crew planted Brady in the Super Bowl. I bet Brady wishes they were just incomplete passes because of pressure.  Tawmy and the Hoodie would laugh at you. 

[DonS 3,292]

2 hours ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

How does a thread about an NFL HOF’er turn into multiple sissy slap fights?

This place is such a shithole.

The better question is how often does a thread NOT turn into sissy slap fights?

[Mungwater 597]

Please shut up about your stupid formula, if you actually have one, go to your nearest NFL team and sell it to them.  Damn