***Wagering thread***

[cyclone24 1,913]

2 hours ago, Fireballer said:

I did it again.  I fukin dropped a bet on Fresno St ML when they were down 3 points in first half.  No way UNLV shoulda beat them.  I burned up half my winnings from last night on a stupid emotional bet right before I went to bed

  

Lol did the same thing on Purdue -6.5

Rage betting…no bueno

[Utilit99 4,099]

26 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

Lol did the same thing on Purdue -6.5

Rage betting…no bueno

That's why I have been taking my latest approach. I use that one guy's lines, I choose and make my bets, then I check back in when all the games are over. Sometimes I'll check in or add another bet but not too much % wise.

I can't do that with football because I like watching football even though I don't get most of the games on TV.  Then I bet bad bets. 

[Fireballer 2,642]

I'm trying to do some analysis that make Greg's picks a little easier.  So far what I did was track the outcomes of his top 10 games with the highest variance in point spread for Feb 1-Feb 7.  This was 70 games.  Surprisingly, if you FADED Greg's top 10 games each day that had the greatest variance in point spread, you would have been 38-31-1.  Ironically, that's 55.5% which Greg says your longterm success will be if you bet every one of his picks.  I will do O/U and spread for a 2 week (Feb 1-14) window and see where we are. 

If you faded his top 5 picks each day, you woulda been 19-16.

[cyclone24 1,913]

25 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

I'm trying to do some analysis that make Greg's picks a little easier.  So far what I did was track the outcomes of his top 10 games with the highest variance in point spread for Feb 1-Feb 7.  This was 70 games.  Surprisingly, if you FADED Greg's top 10 games each day that had the greatest variance in point spread, you would have been 38-31-1.  Ironically, that's 55.5% which Greg says your longterm success will be if you bet every one of his picks.  I will do O/U and spread for a 2 week (Feb 1-14) window and see where we are. 

If you faded his top 5 picks each day, you woulda been 19-16.

Yikes that’s not very good. Do you know what his free play today is?

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

Well I went 3-2 last night. I seem to go 2-1, 2-2, 3-2 most nights…. 
 

that’s a little disturbing about your research on Greg’s top picks. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

14 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Well I went 3-2 last night. I seem to go 2-1, 2-2, 3-2 most nights…. 
 

that’s a little disturbing about your research on Greg’s top picks. 

7-5 is a little above 58%, It will be hard to have a winning percentage higher than that over the long run. 

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

2 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

7-5 is a little above 58%, It will be hard to have a winning percentage higher than that over the long run. 

I wasn’t complaining about my record for sure. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

Just now, WhiteWonder said:

I wasn’t complaining about my record for sure. 

There is one exception - bostonlager college football player props - those hit around 68% 

[Fireballer 2,642]

I did the same for O/U for week of Feb 1-7.  Only 65 games since some got canceled.  Greg went 39-26. So that week, if you faded his Top 10 spreads and bet his Top 10 O/U, you were 83-57-1 or about 59% .  I'm gonna continue this research from Feb 8 to current day and see where we are.  

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

I wonder how many (especially twitter) “cappers” are just posting select picks they see from other cappers. Like what’s stopping someone from choosing 3-4 of Greg’s picks, 1-2 from other places, making a twitter account to post picks and have them be free but have a donations link …. Like Miami Cappers has. 
 

I am ever the skeptic  

[Fireballer 2,642]

10 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

I wonder how many (especially twitter) “cappers” are just posting select picks they see from other cappers. Like what’s stopping someone from choosing 3-4 of Greg’s picks, 1-2 from other places, making a twitter account to post picks and have them be free but have a donations link …. Like Miami Cappers has. 
 

I am ever the skeptic  

That's why I always watch someone for a couple of weeks before I bet their plays. But as you said, I'm sure people just copy cat and then want some $$$

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

48 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

That's why I always watch someone for a couple of weeks before I bet their plays. But as you said, I'm sure people just copy cat and then want some $$$

So what I’m hearing you say is we should create “Geek Cappers”, and collectively decide on our 5 favorite plays off Greg’s spreadsheet each day. All picks are free, donations welcome to our Venmo 

[Alias Detective 1,399]

28 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

So what I’m hearing you say is we should create “Geek Cappers”, and collectively decide on our 5 favorite plays off Greg’s spreadsheet each day. All picks are free, donations welcome to our Venmo 

People tip dealers all the time.  

[bostonlager 2,664]

8 hours ago, cyclone24 said:

Lol did the same thing on Purdue -6.5

Rage betting…no bueno

 

7 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

That's why I have been taking my latest approach. I use that one guy's lines, I choose and make my bets, then I check back in when all the games are over. Sometimes I'll check in or add another bet but not too much % wise.

I can't do that with football because I like watching football even though I don't get most of the games on TV.  Then I bet bad bets. 

Sometimes you just have to take a day off. Yesterday I got busy and didn’t have time to do much and today I really didn’t like the lines so I passed. Friday is typically an off night for college hoops so probably another off day. Saturday I will go balls to the wall. 
 

One thing none of us should ever, ever do is say we are don’t with wagering on sports. That is just looney talk. 

[Fireballer 2,642]

So I saw enough with research with the last 2 weeks of Greg's picks.   Just testing the waters, so I put $1 on bets fading his Top ten spread variances and bet on his Top 10 O/U variances.  Let gamble baby!

[cyclone24 1,913]

1 hour ago, bostonlager said:

 

Sometimes you just have to take a day off. Yesterday I got busy and didn’t have time to do much and today I really didn’t like the lines so I passed. Friday is typically an off night for college hoops so probably another off day. Saturday I will go balls to the wall. 
 

One thing none of us should ever, ever do is say we are don’t with wagering on sports. That is just looney talk. 

Ha… yeah we’ll see. I was talking to my brother today who bets a little bit and we both agreed that it’s pretty stupid. I’ll see how the next couple days ago but I’m OK with not betting  any more. I probably get more enjoyment from video games that I do this.

[Fireballer 2,642]

Fukin IUPUI!!!  The world was on Robert Morris!  The line was -15, Greg had them at -20.  IUPUI wins outright.  This is their 2nd win of the season and only 2nd time they've eclipsed 60 pts.  I faded and now .90 cents richer!!!  We shocked the world!!!

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

im definitely looking at an 0-3 day from gregs picks. already lost mt st mary -6.5  they lost outright  and the two overs i chose are not looking good despite being his higher variance picks. 

[Fireballer 2,642]

5 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

im definitely looking at an 0-3 day from gregs picks. already lost mt st mary -6.5  they lost outright  and the two overs i chose are not looking good despite being his higher variance picks. 

Oh damn.  I faded MSM and got the W!  Some of my O/U lookin sketchy

[cyclone24 1,913]

Took the Fanduel free parlay play…

Embiid and Giannis 2 made threes

Middleton 2 made threes and 15 points

philly to win by 1-10

 

$10 into $332

About dang time

[Utilit99 4,099]

26 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

Took the Fanduel free parlay play…

Embiid and Giannis 2 made threes

Middleton 2 made threes and 15 points

philly to win by 1-10

 

$10 into $332

About dang time

Nice. 

[Fireballer 2,642]

Here's my bets tonight with Fade Greg's sides/Bet with Greg's O/U strategy. I'm still gonna go back and figure out what this method looks like if you take 2 months of data to see if this is viable long term.  I figured it out for 12 days of February and it looks promising. I'm not holding my breath though.

Sides won-

IUPUI +14.5

Sam Houston -1.5 OT winner

S Alabama +1

E Illinois +27.5

Delaware-3 5

St Francis +6.5

Houston -13.5

Sides lost:

ULL

N Dakota

Pending  Wash +12 

 

O/U won:

ULL

E Illinois

Sam Houston

UTEP

Arizona

N Mex

O/U lost:

W Illinois

UIC

SFPA

Pending Wash St

At worst Im 13-7 tonite on this plan. Probably will be 13-10 after losing at least 2 Miami Capper picks.

 

 

 

 

 

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

i salvaged 1-2 on Greg plays tonight with the overtime sam houston OVER hitting.

then put a play on Dennis Schroeder over 5.5 assists to try and balance out the night and that has already hit 

 

2-2, small loss with the juice.

[Utilit99 4,099]

22 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

Day 22 - 2/16/22 

Went 4-2 up $80.91 on the day.

Total bets on the day: Bet $320   - Total payout: $400.91

Overall  102-62-4 up $1,475.05 thru 22 days of betting on select entries from Greg Peterson's card.

Not bad. Made up for yesterday's $29.09 loss. 

Let's see what tomorrow brings. 

Won:

Over 134.5 Winthrop at Gardner Webb - $65 to win $124.09

Over 128.5 Loyola at Lafayette - $45 to win $85.91

Under 141.5 Miami at Louisville - $35 to win $66.82

Under 138.5 Presbyterian at USC Upstate - $65 to win $124.09

 

Lost: 

Under 137 - Boston U. at Holy Cross - $45

Under 144.5 Georgia at LSU - $65

 

 

Day 23 - 2/17/22

Went 6-3 up $148.64 on the day.

Total bets on the day: Bet $405  - Total payout: $553.64

Overall  108-65-4 up $1,623.69 thru 23 days of betting on select entries from Greg Peterson's card.

Not bad today. Over my $67 a day winning average over the first 22 days. 

Let's see what tomorrow brings. Every day is unique. Good luck all. 

Won:

Over 135.5 E. Illinois at Belmont - $45 to win $85.91

Over  135.5 Abilene Christian at Sam Houston State - $55 to win $105

Over 138.5 Louisiana at Louisiana-Monroe - $55 to win $105

Under 152.5 Oregon St. at Arizona - $55  to win $105

Under 141.5 UTEP at Louisiana Tech - $45 to win $85.91

Under 128.5 E. Carolina at S. Florida - $35 to win $66.82

Lost:

Over 161.5 W. Illinois at S. Dakota State - $45

Under 151.5 Rice at UAB - $35

IUPUI at Robert Morris -14.5 - $35

[BeenHereBefore 1,517]

First day I didn't bet in awhile but won $500 on casino online play.

[Utilit99 4,099]

Day 24 - 2/18/22

Yesterday - Any day in the plus category is a good day as far as I'm concerned. 

Overall  108-65-4 up $1,623.69 thru 23 days of betting on select entries from Greg Peterson's card.

Well, not much today. Thin line between a winning and losing day today. 

 

Over 145.5 Maryland at Nebraska - $45

Ohio +1 at Kent State - $45

Over 144 Columbia at Harvard - $55

[Fireballer 2,642]

Damn.  I ended up 15-5 with my new strategy and 15-8 overall with Miami Cappers going 0-3

[Utilit99 4,099]

10 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Damn.  I ended up 15-5 with my new strategy and 15-8 overall with Miami Cappers going 0-3

Excellent.   I'm pretty much just sticking with the Peterson sheet through the rest of the college season. Unless of course I end up quitting. 

This has been really fun over the last few weeks. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

15 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Damn.  I ended up 15-5 with my new strategy and 15-8 overall with Miami Cappers going 0-3

I missed your strategy. What are you doing?

 

[Fireballer 2,642]

54 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I missed your strategy. What are you doing?

 

Initially, yesterday, I was trying to figure out a more simplistic way to use Greg's picks/Badger's cheat sheet.  I started out analyzing what would happen if you just blindly bet the top 10 sides and O/Us from Badgers cheat sheet.  I started analyzing from Feb 1 thru 7.  I realized that there was a successful pattern over those 7 days if you faded his sides and bet with his O/U.  I also worked back from Feb 16th thru 12th and found the same results.  So, I went ahead and bet those last night.  I'm gonna work all the way back to at least mid Dec and see what the results would be.  

 

[cyclone24 1,913]

3 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Initially, yesterday, I was trying to figure out a more simplistic way to use Greg's picks/Badger's cheat sheet.  I started out analyzing what would happen if you just blindly bet the top 10 sides and O/Us from Badgers cheat sheet.  I started analyzing from Feb 1 thru 7.  I realized that there was a successful pattern over those 7 days if you faded his sides and bet with his O/U.  I also worked back from Feb 16th thru 12th and found the same results.  So, I went ahead and bet those last night.  I'm gonna work all the way back to at least mid Dec and see what the results would be.  

 

Thats pretty incredible. So you went against his top ten but took what he had for over unders that were in his top ten (green)

[Fireballer 2,642]

1 hour ago, bostonlager said:

I missed your strategy. What are you doing?

 

For example, last night Badgers cheat sheet would have told you that the "Market" line on Robert Morris was -15.  Greg's analysis saw it should be -20, so there was value in betting Robert Morris at -15.  So, I faded that analysis and took IUPUI at +15. IUPUI ended up winning as a +15 dog.

[Fireballer 2,642]

3 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

Thats pretty incredible. So you went against his top ten but took what he had for over unders that were in his top ten (green)

Exactly.  And I'm only using Badgers sheet for this.  I'm not even looking at Gregs.  It makes so little sense thst I can't see it being sustainable.

[Fireballer 2,642]

8 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

Day 23 - 2/17/22

Overall  108-65-4 up $1,623.69 thru 23 days 

Damn.  That's right at 63%  incredible run

[Utilit99 4,099]

9 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Damn.  That's right at 63%  incredible run

Yeah. Nickle and diming it seems so far. If I win $30 on a night I'm happy. Not trying to strike it rich. Just trying to stay consistently up on the previous day. 

 

[Fireballer 2,642]

So far, betting this method for all of Feb comes in at 187-138-5 or about 57.5%. This isn't an even number of games at 20 bets per day since some were scratched after Badgers sheet was made. A $10 bettor would be up $308 for Feb if you were betting -110 odds. 

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

don't like anything on Gregs card today. Think I played one OVER but a lot of his over/unders were 1-1.5 points different on DK than his Bovada number.

[Mookz 1,346]

7 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

Yeah. Nickle and diming it seems so far. If I win $30 on a night I'm happy. Not trying to strike it rich. Just trying to stay consistently up on the previous day. 

 

Now that you're playing with house money and so far up, do you ever consider bumping up your bet amounts?  

[bostonlager 2,664]

1 hour ago, WhiteWonder said:

don't like anything on Gregs card today. Think I played one OVER but a lot of his over/unders were 1-1.5 points different on DK than his Bovada number.

I took the Maryland ML based on his number at -130. Not crazy about it, but just wanted to get some action in. 

[Fireballer 2,642]

I went back to Jan 22 because that's as far as Badger has done his cheat sheets.  Any further back and I'm gonna have to start comparing Greg's sheet to old lines from books which would be a pain in the a$$.  

So if you bet the fade Greg's sides/bet his O/U since Jan 22, you would be 282-239-9.  I included in state bets for continuity, but YMMV based on what you're allowed to bet.  Shockingly, after all that work, your success is right at 55%.