***Wagering thread***

[posty 2,315]

To make things really interesting, each bet should be for $2,280...

[bostonlager 2,498]

9 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

I went back to Jan 22 because that's as far as Badger has done his cheat sheets.  Any further back and I'm gonna have to start comparing Greg's sheet to old lines from books which would be a pain in the a$$.  

So if you bet the fade Greg's sides/bet his O/U since Jan 22, you would be 282-239-9.  I included in state bets for continuity, but YMMV based on what you're allowed to bet.  Shockingly, after all that work, your success is right at 55%. 

I must have missed this discussion. So we are fading his sides and playing his totals?

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

12 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I must have missed this discussion. So we are fading his sides and playing his totals?

Fireballer had noticed that fading his sides was more productive. 
 

gregs overall is being carried by his over/unders 

[bostonlager 2,498]

3 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Fireballer had noticed that fading his sides was more productive. 
 

gregs overall is being carried by his over/unders 

We need to break it down further.  A couple things I have noticed with no data to back it up, just observation. 

1. His sides that have slight dogs as favorites that fall into the 3.5 -5 point differential seem to be up. 

2. His plays where a team is favored by 6 and he says they should be favored by 11 type bets - those seem to be losers. 

[bostonlager 2,498]

Also with Greg, I only play what is in green at the top. I don’t travel too far down the spreadsheet 

[Fireballer 2,423]

24 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

 

1. His sides that have slight dogs as favorites that fall into the 3.5 -5 point differential seem to be up. 

 

I should have kept track better while researching, but anecdotally I agree with this.  It seemed thst alot of short dogs were covering and even winning outright. 

[bostonlager 2,498]

2 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

I should have kept track better while researching, but anecdotally I agree with this.  It seemed thst alot of short dogs were covering and even winning outright. 

I will start a test run tomorrow and post what I play and fade from his sides. We can give it a week and see how it goes. 

[Utilit99 4,099]

4 hours ago, Mookz said:

Now that you're playing with house money and so far up, do you ever consider bumping up your bet amounts?  

Not really. I kind of don't think of it as "house money". I think that is a misnomer. Plus I normally already bet $300-$400+ a day already. 

Today I only bet 3 games and all it takes is for me to lose two of them to have a losing day but whatever. I still actually get nervous even betting my winnings.  

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

2 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Also with Greg, I only play what is in green at the top. I don’t travel too far down the spreadsheet 

neither do I. his Greenest plays on the spread are what fireballer has been saying have not been so great I believe... and I can see that from my own follows.

[bostonlager 2,498]

Just now, WhiteWonder said:

neither do I. his Greenest plays on the spread are what fireballer has been saying have not been so great I believe... and I can see that from my own follows.

I am going balls to the wall tomorrow with a tail/fade strategy based on what the original Greg line is. I will post them in the mornings and we will see how they go for a week. 

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

3 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I am going balls to the wall tomorrow with a tail/fade strategy based on what the original Greg line is. I will post them in the mornings and we will see how they go for a week. 

what is your strategy going to be?  Fireballers is to tail his over/under's and fade his spread picks.

 

yours is to fade his spread picks where he thinks a decent favorite should be favored by more but tail when he thinks a dog should be favored ?

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

hah I lost my only play today... He was pretty confident on the Columbia/Harvard Over 145 and the total was 116 

[bostonlager 2,498]

1 minute ago, WhiteWonder said:

what is your strategy going to be?  Fireballers is to tail his over/under's and fade his spread picks.

 

yours is to fade his spread picks where he thinks a decent favorite should be favored by more but tail when he thinks a dog should be favored ?

Exactly. 

Small dog  that he thinks is a fav- I'm in

Favorite that he thinks is a bigger fav - I'm fading

[bostonlager 2,498]

ETA - @WhiteWonder

 

A team that is -1 and Greg has them at -5 --- for this experiment that is still a play not a fade. The ones that seem to be losers are -4 and above favorites that Greg thinks is going to win by much more than that. 

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

Just now, bostonlager said:

ETA - @WhiteWonder

 

A team that is -1 and Greg has them at -5 --- for this experiment that is still a play not a fade. The ones that seem to be losers are -4 and above favorites that Greg thinks is going to win by much more than that. 

 

I got ya. Ive been ignoring the picks you are going to fade anyway and have generally only played the type you plan to tail.

[bostonlager 2,498]

Just now, WhiteWonder said:

 

I got ya. Ive been ignoring the picks you are going to fade anyway and have generally only played the type you plan to tail.

Same here. I got burned early in the Greg experiment and have been ignoring those type games for a minute. It may be in our best interest to start fading them. We will soon find out. 

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

FWIW, Gregs top 5 confidence over/under picks are 1-3 with Nebraska/Maryland just going now 

[bostonlager 2,498]

I hope I don't get banned for this and have to log in under Biff again, but I'm willing to post this every day.  We can compare Greg and Kenpom

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Location	Thrill Score	Come back	Excite ment
81 VCU 77, 86 Richmond 57 [64] MVP: Adrian Baldwin (15p/3r/5a/1b/2s)	VCU 67-63 (64%)	box	Richmond, VA Siegel Center	51.0 1
96 Ohio at 147 Kent St.	Ohio 66-65 (52%)	7:00 pm  CBS Sports Network	Kent, OH Memorial Athletic & Convocatio	46.6 2
91 Maryland at 167 Nebraska	Maryland 74-71 (60%)	9:00 pm  Big Ten Network	Lincoln, NE Pinnacle Bank Arena	45.8 3
130 Princeton at 188 Brown	Princeton 73-72 (50%)	7:00 pm	Providence, RI Pizzitola Sports Center	41.7 4
71 St. John's 91, 129 Butler 57 [74] MVP: Julian Champagnie (31p/7r/3a/1b/7s)	St. John's 74-66 (77%)	box win prob	Jamaica, NY Carnesecca Arena	37.4 5	4	-0.04
168 Saint Peter's at 214 Fairfield	Fairfield 63-61 (55%)	7:00 pm  ESPNU	Bridgeport, CT Webster Bank Arena	35.2 6
193 Cornell at 244 Dartmouth	Dartmouth 72-71 (50%)	7:00 pm  ESPN Plus	Hanover, NH Leede Arena	34.8 7
174 Marist at 253 Siena	Marist 67-66 (54%)	7:00 pm	Albany, NY Times Union Center	34.0 8
189 Penn at 142 Yale	Yale 75-69 (70%)	7:00 pm	New Haven, CT Lee Amphitheater	33.8 9
228 Northern Kentucky at 232 Detroit Mercy	Detroit Mercy 70-67 (60%)	7:00 pm	Detroit, MI Calihan Hall	32.1 10
200 Wright St. at 140 Oakland	Oakland 78-71 (73%)	9:00 pm  ESPN2	Oakland, MI Athletics Center O'Rena	31.8 11
137 Missouri at 42 Mississippi St.	Mississippi St. 74-63 (84%)	9:30 pm  ESPN Plus	Starkville, MS Humphrey Coliseum	31.1 12
196 Cleveland St. at 328 Milwaukee	Cleveland St. 72-66 (70%)	8:00 pm	Milwaukee, WI UWM Panther Arena	26.0 13
255 Purdue Fort Wayne at 345 Green Bay	Purdue Fort Wayne 68-63 (65%)	8:00 pm	Green Bay, WI Kress Events Center	25.8 14
258 Rider at 133 Monmouth	Monmouth 72-61 (83%)	7:00 pm	West Long Branch, NJ OceanFirst Bank Center	20.6 15
351 Columbia at 201 Harvard	Harvard 80-64 (93%)	7:00 pm	Boston, MA Lavietes Pavilion	10.5 16

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

0-2 on overs from Greg today. 

[Fireballer 2,423]

28 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

0-2 on overs from Greg today. 

Most of his stuff was garbage. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,359]

6 hours ago, posty said:

To make things really interesting, each bet should be for $2,280...

You first and tell us how you did.

[BeenHereBefore 1,359]

I only bet Maryland -2 tonight on a small wager, waiting for my site to send out the $500 check for my online casino play the last few days. I hate Wheel of Fortune but dig Wheel of Fortune Extreme slots. Greg's o/u on NBA you guys posted have work for me the last couple days ago.

[Utilit99 4,099]

Went 1-2.   It happens 

Day 24 - 2/18/22

Overall  109-67-4 up $1,564.60 thru 24 days of betting on select entries from Greg Peterson's card.

Won:

Over 145.5 Maryland at Nebraska - $45 to win $85.91

Lost: 

Ohio +1 at Kent State - $45

Over 144 Columbia at Harvard - $55

 

Let's see what we have tomorrow.

[Utilit99 4,099]

Day 25 - 2/19/22

Went 1-2 yesterday and lost $59.09 - Second biggest losing day in 24 days of betting. I'm not surprised as I only bet 3 games. Not smart in my world of confused gambling. 

Let's see what we have today.

Overall  109-67-4 up $1,564.60 thru 24 days of betting on select entries from Greg Peterson's card

Shltload of games to choose from. Doesn't matter that much, as I'll just do my 'start from the beginning and quit when I don't want to bet anymore technique' that I always do. It's so scientific. 

 

Under 145.5 Boston College at Syracuse - $55

Under 143 Notre Dame at Wake Forest - $55

Under 143.5 Ole Miss at Georgia - $35

Under 152.5  Iowa at Ohio State - $25

Under 138.5 Clemson at Louisville - $45

Over 138.5 LSU at South Carolina - $45

Under 129.5 Virginia at Miami (FL) - $55 

E. Kentucky -3.5 at Central Arkansas - $35

Under 162.5 E. Kentucky at Central Arkansas - $35 

May add more plays later in the day if I am not getting my ass kicked. There are like 500 games today.

And as a side note: I just listened to about 3 minutes of a portion of Peterson's podcast. After hours of drinking all night into the morning hours I was doing just fine, but after those 3 minutes of listening, I feel like I'm having an anxiety attack. And I don't even know what an anxiety attack is.

[bostonlager 2,498]

Fading Greg

North Dakota +11  

UT San Antonio +15.5

Miss Valley State +10

 

Tailing Greg

Arkansas State +2.5

Minnesota +3.5

High Point +2

Michigan State +2

Montana State +3

Austin Pee pick

 

Passing for now because it doesn't quite fit the gameplan, but can be talked into playing it

Kansas State +5.5

[Fireballer 2,423]

I had some success tailing Ryan Green on Sports Gambling Podcast early in the season. I hadn't listened in a while till today, so I'm tailing him.  

TTech 

Va tech 

Iowa St

Then whatever Miami capper has.  Lat time they put out wagers, they went 0-3.  They should be good for 2-3 winning days now.

[cyclone24 1,836]

Just now, Fireballer said:

I had some success tailing Ryan Green on Sports Gambling Podcast early in the season. I hadn't listened in a while till today, so I'm tailing him.  

TTech 

Batch

Iowa St

Then whatever Miami capper has.  Lat time they put out wagers, they went 0-3.  They should be good for 2-3 winning days now.

Yeah i knew I should have taken Illinois today…but they burned me so bad vs Rutgers i passed. 
 

Not sure about Iowa State…Oklahoma has been playing really well lately

[Fireballer 2,423]

22 minutes ago, cyclone24 said:

Yeah i knew I should have taken Illinois today…but they burned me so bad vs Rutgers i passed. 
 

Not sure about Iowa State…Oklahoma has been playing really well lately

Lol...I'm at peace now that I need to bet the opposite of my analysis.  I don't instinctively like TTech, VaTech, or Iowa St.  

 

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

good job mich st

[Fireballer 2,423]

29 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

good job mich st

I almost bet Illinois here, which was against my instincts.  My instinct was Sparties at home and recency bias against Illinois getting beat by Rutgers.

The boys on the SGP pointed out that MSU is known for clean point guard play and is now 275th in the country in turning the ball over.  They unanimously pick Illinois. I shoulda tailed.

[Fireballer 2,423]

1 hour ago, cyclone24 said:

 Not sure about Iowa State…Oklahoma has been playing really well lately

 

17 hours ago, bostonlager said:

I hope I don't get banned for this and have to log in under Biff again, but I'm willing to post this every day.  We can compare Greg and Kenpom

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Location	Thrill Score	Come back	Excite ment
81 VCU 77, 86 Richmond 57 [64] MVP: Adrian Baldwin (15p/3r/5a/1b/2s)	VCU 67-63 (64%)	box	Richmond, VA Siegel Center	51.0 1
96 Ohio at 147 Kent St.	Ohio 66-65 (52%)	7:00 pm  CBS Sports Network	Kent, OH Memorial Athletic & Convocatio	46.6 2
91 Maryland at 167 Nebraska	Maryland 74-71 (60%)	9:00 pm  Big Ten Network	Lincoln, NE Pinnacle Bank Arena	45.8 3
130 Princeton at 188 Brown	Princeton 73-72 (50%)	7:00 pm	Providence, RI Pizzitola Sports Center	41.7 4
71 St. John's 91, 129 Butler 57 [74] MVP: Julian Champagnie (31p/7r/3a/1b/7s)	St. John's 74-66 (77%)	box win prob	Jamaica, NY Carnesecca Arena	37.4 5	4	-0.04
168 Saint Peter's at 214 Fairfield	Fairfield 63-61 (55%)	7:00 pm  ESPNU	Bridgeport, CT Webster Bank Arena	35.2 6
193 Cornell at 244 Dartmouth	Dartmouth 72-71 (50%)	7:00 pm  ESPN Plus	Hanover, NH Leede Arena	34.8 7
174 Marist at 253 Siena	Marist 67-66 (54%)	7:00 pm	Albany, NY Times Union Center	34.0 8
189 Penn at 142 Yale	Yale 75-69 (70%)	7:00 pm	New Haven, CT Lee Amphitheater	33.8 9
228 Northern Kentucky at 232 Detroit Mercy	Detroit Mercy 70-67 (60%)	7:00 pm	Detroit, MI Calihan Hall	32.1 10
200 Wright St. at 140 Oakland	Oakland 78-71 (73%)	9:00 pm  ESPN2	Oakland, MI Athletics Center O'Rena	31.8 11
137 Missouri at 42 Mississippi St.	Mississippi St. 74-63 (84%)	9:30 pm  ESPN Plus	Starkville, MS Humphrey Coliseum	31.1 12
196 Cleveland St. at 328 Milwaukee	Cleveland St. 72-66 (70%)	8:00 pm	Milwaukee, WI UWM Panther Arena	26.0 13
255 Purdue Fort Wayne at 345 Green Bay	Purdue Fort Wayne 68-63 (65%)	8:00 pm	Green Bay, WI Kress Events Center	25.8 14
258 Rider at 133 Monmouth	Monmouth 72-61 (83%)	7:00 pm	West Long Branch, NJ OceanFirst Bank Center	20.6 15
351 Columbia at 201 Harvard	Harvard 80-64 (93%)	7:00 pm	Boston, MA Lavietes Pavilion	10.5 16

Ok...decipher this for me.  I'm intrigued

[cyclone24 1,836]

Didn’t watch the game but I didn’t realize that Harkless, Oklahoma’s best player was out. Never would have bet them if I knew that. Figures

[bostonlager 2,498]

1 hour ago, Fireballer said:

 

Ok...decipher this for me.  I'm intrigued

Your guess is as good as mine. I look at the predicted scores but have no idea what those nerd stats are. 

[Fireballer 2,423]

Another one I added was Drake +7.  I had not opened my Action Network app in a while and forgot they give a few premium handicaps for free each day.  Drake was showing sharp money, so I figured what the hell.  

The other game was Fresno St.  They're showing to be a good ML play.

[shorepatrol 1,741]

Lost 60 on UFC tonight Bellator is starting now though. Off to lose another 50

[WhiteWonder 2,210]

I ended up going 3-1 on gregs bets today but then promptly lost 2 wagers on the 3 point contest. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,359]

5 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Another one I added was Drake +7.  I had not opened my Action Network app in a while and forgot they give a few premium handicaps for free each day.  Drake was showing sharp money, so I figured what the hell.  

The other game was Fresno St.  They're showing to be a good ML play.

Did Frenso ST even come out for the 2nd half ? Was very close going into the half.

[Utilit99 4,099]

Day 25 - 2/19/22

Went 5-4 up $6.34 on the day.

Total bets on the day: Bet $385  - Total payout: $391.34

Overall  114-71-4 up $1,570.94 thru 25 days of betting on select entries from Greg Peterson's card

Well, not a losing day. 

Let's see what tomorrow brings. 

Won:

Under 162.5 E. Kentucky at Central Arkansas - $35 to win $66.82

Over 138.5 LSU at South Carolina - $45 to win $85.91

Under 152.5  Iowa at Ohio State - $25 to win $47.73

Under 138.5 Clemson at Louisville - $45 to win $85.91

Under 145.5 Boston College at Syracuse - $55 to win - $105

 

Lost: 

E. Kentucky -3.5 at Central Arkansas - $35

Under 129.5 Virginia at Miami (FL) - $55 

Under 143 Notre Dame at Wake Forest - $55

Under 143.5 Ole Miss at Georgia - $35

 

https://twitter.com/GUnit_81?s=09

 

 

 

 

[BeenHereBefore 1,359]

1 hour ago, Utilit99 said:

Day 25 - 2/19/22

Went 5-4 up $6.34 on the day.

Total bets on the day: Bet $385  - Total payout: $391.34

Overall  114-71-4 up $1,570.94 thru 25 days of betting on select entries from Greg Peterson's card

Well, not a losing day. 

Let's see what tomorrow brings. 

Won:

Under 162.5 E. Kentucky at Central Arkansas - $35 to win $66.82

Over 138.5 LSU at South Carolina - $45 to win $85.91

Under 152.5  Iowa at Ohio State - $25 to win $47.73

Under 138.5 Clemson at Louisville - $45 to win $85.91

Under 145.5 Boston College at Syracuse - $55 to win - $105

 

Lost: 

E. Kentucky -3.5 at Central Arkansas - $35

Under 129.5 Virginia at Miami (FL) - $55 

Under 143 Notre Dame at Wake Forest - $55

Under 143.5 Ole Miss at Georgia - $35

 

https://twitter.com/GUnit_81?s=09

 

 

 

 

Happens but a win is a win and good.

[BeenHereBefore 1,359]

My Nascar bets for today

Larson 2 for 22

Bowman 2 for 40

Treux 1 for 25

Kyle Busch 1 for 16

Logano 2 for 24

Briscoe 2 for a 100

Mcdowell 1 for 40

My site won't let me bet on the first stage yet But Larson has the pole he never lose it. He's got the pole again.