***Wagering thread***

[seafoam1 2,799]

Hawks getting beat up on but lead 2-1. 

[seafoam1 2,799]

Fock yeah!! 3-1 Bltch!!

[bostonlager 2,664]

5 hours ago, mattman7168 said:

Not looking to change the wong teaser methodology, but it occurred to me there could be another way to tease underdogs...

For underdogs that are +7.5, +8, and +8.5, would it work to tease them up by 1.5 each so they are getting +9, +9.5, and +10 instead of teasing the favorite down by 6 points each? The odds would be better since you're not moving the spread nearly as much.

I haven't found a favorable way to tease the favorites by only 1.5 points though. Perhaps we ponder it more if the above thinking makes sense.

Thoughts?

Scroll down on this article until you get to the point differential charge. a spread of 7.5 - 9.5 are essentially the same. No value to move numbers within that range as very few games land on those number. 

https://www.covers.com/nfl/teaser-strategy

[mattman7168 39]

Thanks for the link bostonlager

[seafoam1 2,799]

Well. I'm safe at least. My Blackhawks $100 bet to win at +275 came in. 

But damn I want the Chargers to beat Dallas. 

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

The Chargers are not good. 

[seafoam1 2,799]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

The Chargers are not good. 

They should be up by 14 points in this game. They just can't finish drives for some reason. 

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

1 minute ago, seafoam1 said:

They should be up by 14 points in this game. They just can't finish drives for some reason. 

They’ve wasted more talent than any team I’ve seen. 

[seafoam1 2,799]

Ok. Here's another short distance need on 4th down for the Chargers. They failed on their others. 

[seafoam1 2,799]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

They’ve wasted more talent than any team I’ve seen. 

I honestly don't understand how any team in the league doesn't have a play or two that are 100% guaranteed 1 yard gains. Just doesn't seem to work that way somehow. I seriously wonder if they just flat out overthink the easiest things. 

Well, this one worked out for the Chargers. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,453]

11 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

I honestly don't understand how any team in the league doesn't have a play or two that are 100% guaranteed 1 yard gains. Just doesn't seem to work that way somehow. I seriously wonder if they just flat out overthink the easiest things. 

Well, this one worked out for the Chargers. 

Roll out to the te or wr is almost always a sure thing and beyond me that isn't all teams goaline short yardage call.

[seafoam1 2,799]

4 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Roll out to the te or wr is almost always a sure thing and beyond me that isn't all teams goaline short yardage call.

Right? Whatever it is. It's crazy they can't scheme a needed 1-2 yard play that works 99% of the time. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,453]

2 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Right? Whatever it is. It's crazy they can't scheme a needed 1-2 yard play that works 99% of the time. 

Yep.

[seafoam1 2,799]

There it is. 2nd and focking 2. And the Chargers take a sack. Dear Lord. Then a turnover for the loss. 

All they focking needed was 2 focking yards.

Thank God the Blackhawks won tonight. No financial losses for me but I hate the fock out of Dallas. Liked their uniforms tonight though. Good for them. They aint going anywhere in the playoffs if they even make it. 

[Horseman 2,353]

37 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

The Chargers are not good. 

You bet on the Cowboys?

[seafoam1 2,799]

Time to turn on Saw 3 on SYFY channel to brighten my mood.

[BeenHereBefore 1,453]

1 minute ago, seafoam1 said:

Time to turn on Saw 3 on SYFY channel to brighten my mood.

I feel ya but need those two Cowboy bets cause the horses were bad for me tonight.

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

8 minutes ago, Horseman said:

You bet on the Cowboys?

I actually did. 

[seafoam1 2,799]

13 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

I feel ya but need those two Cowboy bets cause the horses were bad for me tonight.

I applaud you for the win. Do you go to race tracks? I used to go to Pimlico and Laural all the time and then when back in the Chicago area I would go to Arlington and watch the harnesses at Maywood.  It was the short track harnesses, twice around. So fun. Maywood was a dirty old lower end blue collar track. So fun.

[BeenHereBefore 1,453]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I actually did. 

I did twice one before the game and one live,

[BeenHereBefore 1,453]

Just now, seafoam1 said:

I applaud you for the win. Do you go to race tracks? I used to go to Pimlico and Laural all the time and then when back in the Chicago area I would go to Arlington and watch the harnesses at Maywood.  It was the short track harnesses, twice around. So fun. 

Thanks and been to a few different tracks years back and just online nowdays, I did good at Fort Erie (Canada track) earlier today but not Mountaineer (West Virginia Track) tonight. Bet through FanDuel and have their app on my Firestick to watch on my TV.

[BeenHereBefore 1,453]

Ohh I do Harness once in awhile and like Hawthorne track for that but mostly Thoroughbred.

[seafoam1 2,799]

13 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Ohh I do Harness once in awhile and like Hawthorne track for that but mostly Thoroughbred.

Oh shlt. I've been to Hawthorne many times. Forgot about that one. Been to many tracks over the years. Even one in shlthole Mexico. It was like being in a Turkish prison. It was no joke. Dog track. I'm shocked I got out alive honestly. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,453]

Just now, seafoam1 said:

Oh shlt. I've been to Hawthorne many times. Forgot about that one. Been to many tracks over the years. Even one in shlthole Mexico. It was like being in a Turkish prison. I'm shocked I got out alive honestly. 

Haha the Mexico one and I been to a dog race in Jacksonville once that was creepy. Hawthorne is pretty cool and there all Harness now and Thoroughbred in the summer. Only a $1 min bet. Monmouth is my favorite so far but there pretty much done now and only a couple races on Fri & Sat nights.

[seafoam1 2,799]

1 minute ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Haha the Mexico one and I been to a dog race in Jacksonville once that was creepy. Hawthorne is pretty cool and there all Harness now and Thoroughbred in the summer. Only a $1 min bet. Monmouth is my favorite so far but there pretty much done now and only a couple races on Fri & Sat nights.

I gotta say, it's hard to win at horses, but, it is so fun to be there in person to me more than ANY other sport. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,453]

8 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

I gotta say, it's hard to win at horses, but, it is so fun to be there in person to me more than ANY other sport. 

Yea being there is awesome and was at Tampa one in Jan 80 degrees, love that. Yep I'm up and down when it comes to the betting. sure I lost more then I won but having fun. I got my 73 yr old mother into them even more then me. Gives her something to have fun with since she is pretty much housebound.

[mattman7168 39]

12 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Week 7 wong combinations now with a few games to keep an eye on as they could slip into range. 

Atlanta +2.5

Buffalo -8.5

Indianapolis +2

NY Giants +2

Seattle -7.5

Miami +1.5

 

I just noticed that 6 of the games you DON'T have listed above are all within .5 of falling into the desired range. Only Chiefs/Charges don't have a spread yet (as of this post). Potentially all the games this week could be in range. Crazy!

When I looked yesterday Jags were +2 (in range) but this morning are now +3 (out of range). With all the fluctuating that goes on during the week, when is the best time lock in a bet? Early in the week? Right before games start? Should line changes concern me if I've already placed a bet? (I haven't)

So many potential options this coming week. I'll have to be smart with my 6 parlays.

[bostonlager 2,664]

2 minutes ago, mattman7168 said:

I just noticed that 6 of the games you DON'T have listed above are all within .5 of falling into the desired range. Only Chiefs/Charges don't have a spread yet (as of this post). Potentially all the games this week could be in range. Crazy!

When I looked yesterday Jags were +2 (in range) but this morning are now +3 (out of range). With all the fluctuating that goes on during the week, when is the best time lock in a bet? Early in the week? Right before games start? Should line changes concern me if I've already placed a bet? (I haven't)

So many potential options this coming week. I'll have to be smart with my 6 parlays.

I try to keep an eye on things every day, throughout the day. Any that dip into range I will quickly grab and add all combinations that fit. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

3 minutes ago, mattman7168 said:

I just noticed that 6 of the games you DON'T have listed above are all within .5 of falling into the desired range. Only Chiefs/Charges don't have a spread yet (as of this post). Potentially all the games this week could be in range. Crazy!

When I looked yesterday Jags were +2 (in range) but this morning are now +3 (out of range). With all the fluctuating that goes on during the week, when is the best time lock in a bet? Early in the week? Right before games start? Should line changes concern me if I've already placed a bet? (I haven't)

So many potential options this coming week. I'll have to be smart with my 6 parlays.

What did you end up hitting on the 26 play RR? I think every team hit didn't they?

[mattman7168 39]

1 minute ago, bostonlager said:

What did you end up hitting on the 26 play RR? I think every team hit didn't they?

Yes, all 5 hit. Beginner's luck!

26 total bets @ $1 returned of $62.04 ($36.04 profit). Had the Chargers not covered last night I still would have profited $4. 

Great on the job training!

[mattman7168 39]

Placed 6 parlay wong teasers with:

Mia/Den

Mia/Atl

Mia/Sea

Den/Sea

Den/Atl

Sea/Atl

DK wouldn't let me tease alternate spreads with Colts or Giants. Will check them throughout the week to see if that changes. Kept Buffalo out...they should win against the Pats (and cover the -2.5 teased line) but I don't know if I trust that one.

[seafoam1 2,799]

What do we got tonight? Liberty minus the points??

[kilroy69 1,215]

I am disgusted with myself. I hate myself. I did not listen to you about san fran. I hit on 12 legs of a 13 leg parlay. 50 dollar bet would have turned into 13k had I took the browns at the -points. I repent to the alter of bostonlager.  I just could not see a way that the browns could win that game.  Beat me up. Tell me I am dumb. Hindsight being 2020 it was pretty dumb. Just......ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. fuckingfuck

[bostonlager 2,664]

38 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

I am disgusted with myself. I hate myself. I did not listen to you about san fran. I hit on 12 legs of a 13 leg parlay. 50 dollar bet would have turned into 13k had I took the browns at the -points. I repent to the alter of bostonlager.  I just could not see a way that the browns could win that game.  Beat me up. Tell me I am dumb. Hindsight being 2020 it was pretty dumb. Just......ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. fuckingfuck

It happens to us all and it will happen again. I had a sh1tty week prop-wise. You have to be like a good cornerback or closing pitcher - short memory. Move on and get ‘em next week. 

[kilroy69 1,215]

3 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

It happens to us all and it will happen again. I had a sh1tty week prop-wise. You have to be like a good cornerback or closing pitcher - short memory. Move on and get ‘em next week. 

Dude it is fuckingg renting space in my head. So damn close. I picked the winners and the over under in 2 of the legs. The san fran game was a lock to me. It felt like being kicked in the nuts. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,453]

3 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

Dude it is fuckingg renting space in my head. So damn close. I picked the winners and the over under in 2 of the legs. The san fran game was a lock to me. It felt like being kicked in the nuts. 

Sorry to hear and problem I had with that game was San Fran beat the Cowboys up to bad the week before with many watching. I took Cleveland and the points in all my parlays. That does suck and lost a 6 team spread parlay cause of Mac Jones safety at the end of the game. Not near the money you lost though.

[kilroy69 1,215]

Just now, BeenHereBefore said:

Sorry to hear and problem I had with that game was San Fran beat the Cowboys up to bad the week before with many watching. I took Cleveland and the points in all my parlays. That does suck and lost a 6 team spread parlay cause of Mac Jones safety at the end of the game. Not near the money you lost though.

I feel your pain man. That is super hard to lose by something so stupid like a safety of a chip shot field goal. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,453]

3 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

I feel your pain man. That is super hard to lose by something so stupid like a safety of a chip shot field goal. 

Thanks and was thinking other ways Jones could Fock up with 2 mins to go. Thought fumble or pick 6, Never even thought safety.

[WhiteWonder 2,675]

2 hours ago, kilroy69 said:

Dude it is fuckingg renting space in my head. So damn close. I picked the winners and the over under in 2 of the legs. The san fran game was a lock to me. It felt like being kicked in the nuts. 

Did you have San Fran -6.5ish? I wouldn’t have blamed you 

[kilroy69 1,215]

4 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

Did you have San Fran -6.5ish? I wouldn’t have blamed you 

No but I had some  pretty good advice as to why I should have. Just did not believe