***Wagering thread***

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

Every week I do a huge parlay with all of the noon and 3pm games.  This week it was a parlay of 11 teams against the spread.  The Seahawks were the only team that kept me from winning a nice pot.

[kilroy69 1,215]

On 10/1/2024 at 6:32 PM, kilroy69 said:

The odds on this dropped from +6000 when I first started buying into this to + 650 now

Odds on this have dropped to +300 after last weeks 92 yard 1td performance 

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

Has anyone tried this simple strategy ? Works more times than not for me, specially in NCAA Football. If the O/U is fairy low I take the points, if fairly high I give the points. thoughts ?

[mattman7168 39]

1 hour ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Has anyone tried this simple strategy ? Works more times than not for me, specially in NCAA Football. If the O/U is fairy low I take the points, if fairly high I give the points. thoughts ?

I had seen, or heard, something like that once before. I recently (past week) tried finding the "formula" because I couldn't remember the combination of over/under and giving or taking points. Thanks for posting this...I am going to try it this weekend. What is the definition of fairly low and fairly high for the over/under?

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

34 minutes ago, mattman7168 said:

I had seen, or heard, something like that once before. I recently (past week) tried finding the "formula" because I couldn't remember the combination of over/under and giving or taking points. Thanks for posting this...I am going to try it this weekend. What is the definition of fairly low and fairly high for the over/under?

Well low any 30's, high 50 or more.

[mattman7168 39]

8 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Well low any 30's, high 50 or more.

Any limit to the points your giving?

Clemson is giving 20.5 to Wake Forest. O/U is 62.5.

Missouri is giving 27.5 to UMass. O/U is 54.5.

Edit: I took games with high overs and giving minimal points, and lowish overs giving higher points.

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

3 hours ago, mattman7168 said:

Any limit to the points your giving?

Clemson is giving 20.5 to Wake Forest. O/U is 62.5.

Missouri is giving 27.5 to UMass. O/U is 54.5.

Edit: I took games with high overs and giving minimal points, and lowish overs giving higher points.

 Not to do with this strategy but think Missouri covers cause they lost last week and Clemson don't cause they won last week big. I forgot to bet on theses games. as for the strategy I think the lower under games points matter more.Good luck man!

[mattman7168 39]

23 hours ago, mattman7168 said:

Any limit to the points your giving?

Clemson is giving 20.5 to Wake Forest. O/U is 62.5.

Missouri is giving 27.5 to UMass. O/U is 54.5.

Edit: I took games with high overs and giving minimal points, and lowish overs giving higher points.

Out of 19 games I got 10 right and 4 pushes. Unfortunately I won 0 money because I parlayed them in 4 different bets. The last one, a 7 teamer, had the 4 pushes with 1 loser. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

3 hours ago, mattman7168 said:

Out of 19 games I got 10 right and 4 pushes. Unfortunately I won 0 money because I parlayed them in 4 different bets. The last one, a 7 teamer, had the 4 pushes with 1 loser. 

That's the thing about parlays.

Today I'm 1-0 so far

What I also like and took

New England +6.5

Panthers +6.5

Ravens - 6.5

Steelers -3

Bengals -3.5

 

[kilroy69 1,215]

Henry. 132 yards and 2 tds. Barkly is his only real competition for OPOY at this point and he had another dud of a day. 

[mattman7168 39]

1 hour ago, kilroy69 said:

Henry. 132 yards and 2 tds. Barkly is his only real competition for OPOY at this point and he had another dud of a day. 

I think that's because the Eagles kinda suck LOL. The Ravens just seem to have "it".

[mattman7168 39]

I hit my Bears ML bet this morning plus a 5 leg parlay on the same game - Woo Hoo! Decided to "gamble" a bit with a 5 leg TD bet - Henry, Kamara, Pollard, Devanta Smith, and Harrison....guess who didn't hit because he got injured. 

I wish we could petition to have injuries counted as a push. The injury happened early in the game. Had he played the whole 60 minutes and didn't score I can live with that. But...to lose like that is BS, IMO. Last year when Rodgers tore his Achilles on the first play my bet was voided - money returned. 

End of rant!

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

41 minutes ago, mattman7168 said:

I hit my Bears ML bet this morning plus a 5 leg parlay on the same game - Woo Hoo! Decided to "gamble" a bit with a 5 leg TD bet - Henry, Kamara, Pollard, Devanta Smith, and Harrison....guess who didn't hit because he got injured. 

I wish we could petition to have injuries counted as a push. The injury happened early in the game. Had he played the whole 60 minutes and didn't score I can live with that. But...to lose like that is BS, IMO. Last year when Rodgers tore his Achilles on the first play my bet was voided - money returned. 

End of rant!

Cool 5 leg same games are tough and good job. I barely missed one today cause of Jeudy having just one catch. Good Job!

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

I won $129 on a 4 league team parlay although I had about $40 in bets I lost and dumped $20 some on the ponies. Still a good day and have the Bengals -4.5 tonight.

[mattman7168 39]

16 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

I won $129 on a 4 league team parlay although I had about $40 in bets I lost and dumped $20 some on the ponies. Still a good day and have the Bengals -4.5 tonight.

By my math that's still +$69...

https://www.google.com/search?q=bill+and+ted+69+dude&oq=bill+and+ted+69+dude&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQLhhA0gEINDYzMmowajSoAgCwAgA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:b1b9716d,vid:zYWT4uYOPvs,st:0

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

Just now, mattman7168 said:

By my math that's still +$69...

https://www.google.com/search?q=bill+and+ted+69+dude&oq=bill+and+ted+69+dude&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIGCAEQLhhA0gEINDYzMmowajSoAgCwAgA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:b1b9716d,vid:zYWT4uYOPvs,st:0

Haha yep.

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

Run Burrows Run lol.

[kilroy69 1,215]

Odds on Henry dropped to +175 from the +300 they were last week

[Horseman 2,353]

Jets -2.5 and over 40.5

Roger's o1.5

GWilson o4.5

RWilson o172.5

[kilroy69 1,215]

I took the Packers to win, reed over 58, Kraft over 35, Thomas over 60, Engram over 49 + ravens win, Judy over 43 yards and Njoku over 59. +8180 for a potential cashout of $4140

[Horseman 2,353]

Cook o31.5 Dowdle out with illness

Prescott o1.5 td

Elliott o9.5 rec

Kittle o4.5 rec

Lamb o6.5 rec

Bell u4.5 rec

Brooks u1.5 rec

Pearsall u3.5 rec

Brown o4.5 t/a

[Horseman 2,353]

3 hours ago, Horseman said:

Cook o31.5 Dowdle out with illness

Prescott o1.5 td

Elliott o9.5 rec

Kittle o4.5 rec

Lamb o6.5 rec

Bell u4.5 rec

Brooks u1.5 rec

Pearsall u3.5 rec

Brown o4.5 t/a

6-3

[Horseman 2,353]

UFC 310

Chiesa -135

Weidman -115

Evloev by Decision -155

Luque +130

Landwehr -130

Mitchell by Decision -180

Rakhmonov by Submission +165

Pantoja -260

 

[BiffTannen 866]

Transfer portal kicked Sam Houston in the nuts. 

Georgia Southern -4 and Under 48

[BiffTannen 866]

St Francis/Alabama St u 139.5

North Carolina -4.5

[kilroy69 1,215]

MSU to win it all. +2500. I put 200 bucks down 

 

[BiffTannen 866]

9 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

MSU to win it all. +2500. I put 200 bucks down 

 

Ranked 8 by Kenpom. 

 

What worries me about them is their offensive efficiency rating - 56. 95% of champions over the last 25 years have been ranked 21 or better in this metric.  

[listen2me 23 1,825]

Its a popular dog but im trying High Point ML over Purdue

I like Bama St and thr Bonnies tonight.  

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

8 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

St Francis/Alabama St u 139.5

North Carolina -4.5

St Francis is a local team for me and had to take them with the + 3.5

[BiffTannen 866]

3 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

St Francis is a local team for me and had to take them with the + 3.5

We both escaped a close one 

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

1 hour ago, BiffTannen said:

We both escaped a close one 

Yea was kinda a wild finish and Francis was having dribbling problems towards the end.

[BiffTannen 866]

Homer pick: Xavier -2.5

[WhiteWonder 2,674]

I've never turned on a game and realized I lost a bet faster than SDST yesterday .  I had them parlayed with Alabama State ML. for reasons I can't really explain other than i'm pretty sure unc didn't belong anyway and the AD just needed his bonus money. 

either way college basketball has been pretty good to me and I don't even watch much. the past month or so is the most college bball I have watched in years. so much better than the NBA. Obviously. but i still don't usually get into it aside from the tournament. 

[BiffTannen 866]

2 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

I've never turned on a game and realized I lost a bet faster than SDST yesterday .  I had them parlayed with Alabama State ML. for reasons I can't really explain other than i'm pretty sure unc didn't belong anyway and the AD just needed his bonus money. 

either way college basketball has been pretty good to me and I don't even watch much. the past month or so is the most college bball I have watched in years. so much better than the NBA. Obviously. but i still don't usually get into it aside from the tournament. 

I was on UNC because they were 8-2 in their last 10 (only losses were to Duke). If they stay hot, they can make a run. 

[WhiteWonder 2,674]

Just now, BiffTannen said:

I was on UNC because they were 8-2 in their last 10 (only losses were to Duke). If they stay hot, they can make a run. 

I honestly didn't even think they looked that good. They were super hot from 3 early on, before I stopped watching, SDST offense was just panful to watch. They definitely did not belong. But again, I don't watch that much and had not even seen them play before yesterday. I originally had alabama state parlayed with UNC until doing some research that failed me.  Only parlayed because my profit boost had to be +100 odds or longer. 

[BiffTannen 866]

I will be putting a card together later for Thursday games. The first thing I"m looking to do is fade teams that played in their conference tourney on Sunday and playing a more rested team. 

[WhiteWonder 2,674]

6 minutes ago, BiffTannen said:

I will be putting a card together later for Thursday games. The first thing I"m looking to do is fade teams that played in their conference tourney on Sunday and playing a more rested team. 

interesting. do you think that is better than having a longer layoff / possibly getting cold? Every team will have at least 3-4 days rest

[BiffTannen 866]

4 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

interesting. do you think that is better than having a longer layoff / possibly getting cold? Every team will have at least 3-4 days rest

My reasoning behind this is because those teams that played Sunday played 3 or 4 games on consecutive days. 3 days off isn't much time for recovery and some of those games will be played in Denver. High altitude plus fatigue could make for some easy wins tomorrow. 

[WhiteWonder 2,674]

29 minutes ago, BiffTannen said:

My reasoning behind this is because those teams that played Sunday played 3 or 4 games on consecutive days. 3 days off isn't much time for recovery and some of those games will be played in Denver. High altitude plus fatigue could make for some easy wins tomorrow. 

let me know what you're looking at. I'll post some of the plays I like as well but I was mostly betting a lot of player point and rebound props.. i'm not a big fan of spread bets at tourney time...

.  I need to find a dog I like.  FD has a promo with a million free bet split between everyone who correctly bet on the lowest seed to advance. I am bound to bet on at least one dog ML regardless so might as well opt in on that.   (they have been doing something similar for NBA 3 pointers.. wager the over on a single player's 3 pointer prop and if he has the most 3's on the night you win a share of the free bet pool... Simons of portland returned $110 in free bets last time. I've never hit the right guy but I still cash the base over wagers)

 

[BiffTannen 866]

1 minute ago, WhiteWonder said:

let me know what you're looking at. I'll post some of the plays I like as well but I was mostly betting a lot of player point and rebound props.. i'm not a big fan of spread bets at tourney time...

.  I need to find a dog I like.  FD has a promo with a million free bet split between everyone who correctly bet on the lowest seed to advance. I am bound to bet on at least one dog ML regardless so might as well opt in on that.   (they have been doing something similar for NBA 3 pointers.. wager the over on a single player's 3 pointer prop and if he has the most 3's on the night you win a share of the free bet pool... Simons of portland returned $110 in free bets last time. I've never hit the right guy but I still cash the base over wagers)

 

Off the top of my head now before I start putting it all together. UC San Diego. 2.5 point dog. Michigan played 4 days in a row and is in Denver tomorrow.