***Wagering thread***

[kilroy69 1,245]

5 minutes ago, BiffTannen said:

You survived

Duuuudeeee I was having a fuckingg fit in the first half. It looked sooooo slow.  I would love to see a Michigan/Michigan state matchup at the next level. 

[BiffTannen 940]

2-0 night for hoops to make it 17-11 (.607) for the tournament. I don’t usually fair well on the elite 8 and beyond I’m done for this year. 
 

4-2 on strikeouts - 8- 3 for the season. This is what I’ll be focusing on until I get bored or go cold. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,514]

Only beating on the CBS games and win every time live when I get the 5 point swing difference and then take the Favs.

[BeenHereBefore 1,514]

6 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

2-0 night for hoops to make it 17-11 (.607) for the tournament. I don’t usually fair well on the elite 8 and beyond I’m done for this year. 
 

4-2 on strikeouts - 8- 3 for the season. This is what I’ll be focusing on until I get bored or go cold. 

I didn't even try to fock with baseball yet. Usually do the O/U when I do.

[BiffTannen 940]

18 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

I didn't even try to fock with baseball yet. Usually do the O/U when I do.

I’m going to try to stick with it this year. The season is just so long I usually get bored after the first few weeks. 

[BiffTannen 940]

Dean Kremer u 3.5

Spencer Arrighetti u 5.5 

Spencer Schwellenbach u 4.5

Roki Sasaki u 4.5 

Jake Irvin u 4.5 

[Horseman 2,438]

5 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Only beating on the CBS games and win every time live when I get the 5 point swing difference and then take the Favs.

Nothing wrong with pacing yourself with the beatings.  

[Horseman 2,438]

UFC Loopy Godinez 

Farm

by points -185

 

[BiffTannen 940]

12 minutes ago, Horseman said:

UFC Loopy Godinez 

Farm

by points -185

 

In 

[Horseman 2,438]

Finally.  

[BiffTannen 940]

Just now, Horseman said:

Finally.  

Good hit, partner. 

[Horseman 2,438]

Gautier by tko -135

[Horseman 2,438]

I'm back!

[BeenHereBefore 1,514]

6 hours ago, Horseman said:

Nothing wrong with pacing yourself with the beatings.  

Lol haha agreed.

[BeenHereBefore 1,514]

11 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

I’m going to try to stick with it this year. The season is just so long I usually get bored after the first few weeks. 

Same and do okay with the Overs for the first month or so till pitching and etc. get better then get bored.

[BeenHereBefore 1,514]

UFL is on now and what a boring one sided game.

[BiffTannen 940]

10 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

Dean Kremer u 3.5

Spencer Arrighetti u 5.5 

Spencer Schwellenbach u 4.5

Roki Sasaki u 4.5 

Jake Irvin u 4.5 

12-4 season record. 

[listen2me 23 1,871]

12 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

12-4 season record. 

Nice

[WhiteWonder 2,729]

theory discussion... as Biff knows, I usually do a weekly "lotto ticket parlay" during NFL season.  Anytime TD scorers.  I thought it might be possible to build similar for MLB "to get a hit". .. It is not. If you want similar you have to go with "2+ total bases". 

Now I am sure data analytics supports the odds on hit props vs TD props but i find it hard to believe that it is nearly twice as likely for a major league hitter to record a hit during his 4-5 at bats than it is for a star NFL player, who gets fed the ball, to score a TD at any point during his game. 

Take Aaron Judge and Saquon Barkley as examples. Judge is only getting up 4-5 times in a game. Even if he is batting .333, you have to factor in all the walks which don't lower his average. So even a great hitter like that is getting a hit less than once every three at bats. Barkley scored 15 times in 17 (really 16) regular season games. iirc, a usual line for Barkley anytime TD would have been -130ish?.  Aaron Judge to get a hit is -220 today and that gets worse if the starter is a lefty. 

I have no intention on building "to get a hit" parlays. I'd be more likely to put $1 on 8 players to hit home runs if I am looking for a fun lotto ticket. 

Just curious what others thought about the ease of scoring touchdowns vs getting hits

[BiffTannen 940]

7 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

theory discussion... as Biff knows, I usually do a weekly "lotto ticket parlay" during NFL season.  Anytime TD scorers.  I thought it might be possible to build similar for MLB "to get a hit". .. It is not. If you want similar you have to go with "2+ total bases". 

Now I am sure data analytics supports the odds on hit props vs TD props but i find it hard to believe that it is nearly twice as likely for a major league hitter to record a hit during his 4-5 at bats than it is for a star NFL player, who gets fed the ball, to score a TD at any point during his game. 

Take Aaron Judge and Saquon Barkley as examples. Judge is only getting up 4-5 times in a game. Even if he is batting .333, you have to factor in all the walks which don't lower his average. So even a great hitter like that is getting a hit less than once every three at bats. Barkley scored 15 times in 17 (really 16) regular season games. iirc, a usual line for Barkley anytime TD would have been -130ish?.  Aaron Judge to get a hit is -220 today and that gets worse if the starter is a lefty. 

I have no intention on building "to get a hit" parlays. I'd be more likely to put $1 on 8 players to hit home runs if I am looking for a fun lotto ticket. 

Just curious what others thought about the ease of scoring touchdowns vs getting hits

I don’t know of a way you can play it like TDs in football other than HRs and they are hard to predict.  Whatever you end up doing, be careful on Sundays. Lots of guys get the day off and it makes lineups unpredictable. No plays for me today. 

[BiffTannen 940]

I’m grabbing the Vols +14.5 live 

[BiffTannen 940]

Grabbing the Vols +72.5 live 

[BiffTannen 940]

This is why I quit after the sweet 16. Had I bet yesterday’s games I would have lost both and I would have taken the Vols here. 

[WhiteWonder 2,729]

2 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

I don’t know of a way you can play it like TDs in football other than HRs and they are hard to predict.  Whatever you end up doing, be careful on Sundays. Lots of guys get the day off and it makes lineups unpredictable. No plays for me today. 

The closest match to anytime TD is 2+ total bases. 2 singles, double, etc all satisfy and it’s very similar odds to a touchdowns. 
 

not playing anything today although guys being off just voids a leg unless they pinch hit. 
 

was more curious what you guys thought was harder to predict. Anytime TDs vs hits. I think it’s easily anytime TDs. Maybe I am biased because of my FF background but I cashed out 2 of those during the NFL season for almost $200 profit after the $25 or so spent doing one per week (at $1-2 each)

just seems to me that it’s not too tough to say Justin Jefferson will get fed, Jamar Chase will get fed, Henry, Barkley, Gibbs, Adams after the trade, high volume starting backs like Bijan. Backs getting increased workload because of injury. 
 

Hits is such a crapshoot when you factor in lefty vs righty, intentional walks, HBPs, on top of guys only batting like 250ish. 
 

but that’s not the way the books apparently see it 

[BiffTannen 940]

3 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

The closest match to anytime TD is 2+ total bases. 2 singles, double, etc all satisfy and it’s very similar odds to a touchdowns. 
 

not playing anything today although guys being off just voids a leg unless they pinch hit. 
 

was more curious what you guys thought was harder to predict. Anytime TDs vs hits. I think it’s easily anytime TDs. Maybe I am biased because of my FF background but I cashed out 2 of those during the NFL season for almost $200 profit after the $25 or so spent doing one per week (at $1-2 each)

just seems to me that it’s not too tough to say Justin Jefferson will get fed, Jamar Chase will get fed, Henry, Barkley, Gibbs, Adams after the trade, high volume starting backs like Bijan. Backs getting increased workload because of injury. 
 

Hits is such a crapshoot when you factor in lefty vs righty, intentional walks, HBPs, on top of guys only batting like 250ish. 
 

but that’s not the way the books apparently see it 

Agreed. Plate appearances are 3-5 vs touches your rb/wr is going to get. If you do it, post it. I would like to see how it plays out. 

[WhiteWonder 2,729]

45 minutes ago, BiffTannen said:

Agreed. Plate appearances are 3-5 vs touches your rb/wr is going to get. If you do it, post it. I would like to see how it plays out. 

I won’t do just to get a hit. 20 legs pays 5-10k only. Not worth it. 
 

I will ultimately do some 2+ total base ones since that is in line with the anytime TD odds. 
 

Will post when I make one. 
 

an additional draw back is that unlike NfL with an early window and late window, I don’t see ever being offered a cash out with baseball. My 2 NFL cash outs this year were when I had a majority of my 1pm picks correct and the 4pm games had not started and they wanted me out  

[Horseman 2,438]

22 hours ago, BeenHereBefore said:

UFL is on now and what a boring one sided game.

I watched and bet on women's boxing last night.  

[BeenHereBefore 1,514]

Holly crap was Mich St bad at shooting 3's, I won my bet somehow cause I had 10.5.

[BiffTannen 940]

Martin Perez u 3.5 +115

Carmen Mlodzinski u 3.5 -115

Bowden Francis u 4.5 +115

Cal Quantrill u 3.5 +110

[BiffTannen 940]

19 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

Martin Perez u 3.5 +115

Carmen Mlodzinski u 3.5 -115

Bowden Francis u 4.5 +115

Cal Quantrill u 3.5 +110

Squeezed out a tiny profit with 3 of the plays being plus money. 

Season record:14-6

[Alias Detective 1,397]

On 3/30/2025 at 1:25 PM, WhiteWonder said:

theory discussion... as Biff knows, I usually do a weekly "lotto ticket parlay" during NFL season.  Anytime TD scorers.  I thought it might be possible to build similar for MLB "to get a hit". .. It is not. If you want similar you have to go with "2+ total bases". 

Now I am sure data analytics supports the odds on hit props vs TD props but i find it hard to believe that it is nearly twice as likely for a major league hitter to record a hit during his 4-5 at bats than it is for a star NFL player, who gets fed the ball, to score a TD at any point during his game. 

Take Aaron Judge and Saquon Barkley as examples. Judge is only getting up 4-5 times in a game. Even if he is batting .333, you have to factor in all the walks which don't lower his average. So even a great hitter like that is getting a hit less than once every three at bats. Barkley scored 15 times in 17 (really 16) regular season games. iirc, a usual line for Barkley anytime TD would have been -130ish?.  Aaron Judge to get a hit is -220 today and that gets worse if the starter is a lefty. 

I have no intention on building "to get a hit" parlays. I'd be more likely to put $1 on 8 players to hit home runs if I am looking for a fun lotto ticket. 

Just curious what others thought about the ease of scoring touchdowns vs getting hits

33% success hitting the ball and you are in the HOF.  Getting a hit ain’t easy.

[WhiteWonder 2,729]

6 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

33% success hitting the ball and you are in the HOF.  Getting a hit ain’t easy.

agreed. but they price getting a hit as if it is 2-3x easier than scoring a touchdown

[Mookz 1,343]

6 hours ago, BiffTannen said:

Squeezed out a tiny profit with 3 of the plays being plus money. 

Season record:14-6

Tailed you but came out behind.  How the fock did you get such good odds?    By getting in early, or by shopping multiple sportsbooks?

I used DK and got Perez at -145, Mlodzinski at -155, Francis at +110 and Quantrill at -125. 

[BiffTannen 940]

8 minutes ago, Mookz said:

Tailed you but came out behind.  How the fock did you get such good odds?    By getting in early, or by shopping multiple sportsbooks?

I used DK and got Perez at -145, Mlodzinski at -155, Francis at +110 and Quantrill at -125. 

Both. I start looking at multiple books when I first wake up. I don't play anything past -130 

My only play today is Sandy Alcantara u 5.5 +115, but that number was gone hours ago. 

 

 

[Mookz 1,343]

2 minutes ago, BiffTannen said:

Both. I start looking at multiple books when I first wake up. I play anything past -130 

My only play today is Sandy Alcantara u 5.5 +115, but that number was gone hours ago. 

 

 

Well fock me sideways.  That one's up to -125 on DK. 

I guess it's reassuring when the odds swing so far in your favor after you bet. 

[BiffTannen 940]

2 minutes ago, Mookz said:

Well fock me sideways.  That one's up to -125 on DK. 

I guess it's reassuring when the odds swing so far in your favor after you bet. 

-125 isn't a bad price. I just don't play anything worse than -130

[Mookz 1,343]

2 minutes ago, BiffTannen said:

-125 isn't a bad price. I just don't play anything worse than -130

Got it, will keep that in mind.  Ironically if I had done that yesterday I would have gone 2-0.  

[Alias Detective 1,397]

33 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

agreed. but they price getting a hit as if it is 2-3x easier than scoring a touchdown

as it should be.

[BiffTannen 940]

21 minutes ago, Mookz said:

Got it, will keep that in mind.  Ironically if I had done that yesterday I would have gone 2-0.  

Also keep in mind I started out extremely hot. I'm not going to pick these at 75% for the entire season. I will have losing days, but the hope is to settle in around 60% long term. 

[WhiteWonder 2,729]

54 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

as it should be.

so you think it's easier for a top MLB hitter to get a hit in a game than it is for a top NFL star to score a TD?  That was my original proposed question to guys in this thread. I just don't see it, let alone having it be 2-3x easier.... That's why I used the Judge vs. Barkley comparison. Barkley gets fed the ball, Judge gets 4-5 at bats before you factor in intentional walks and such.   Also so many little things like pinch hitting / pinch running even for very good MLB players based on matchup analytics.