***Wagering thread***

[Fireballer 2,369]

3 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Any luck?

Yes and no.  As far as betting, no, I haven't used his sheet to bet yet.  But I have done a bit of research on it.  

First, over the last week, I went back and checked accuracy on his O/U.  It's winning, but up only about 5 units over the last week.

Second, I've figured out his methodology for the sheet.  Basically, Gregs "straight up money line price" is what his handicap shows the game to be set at. For example, if the "straight up ML" is + or- 127, you try to find a line in a book that is either higher than +127 for a dog, or lower than -127 for chalk.  You bet the better value, and hopefully long term, you win.

If the chalky ML from your book is worse than -150ish, he advises betting the run line to soften the juice.  He was actually good enough to explain this in his podcast this morning after I asked him a question on Twitter about this yesterday. He used a good analogy for avoiding excessive juice on a favorite...last year, even though the Dodgers won 113 games, you lost money long term if you bet them on their ML every game.   I'm still trying to figure out a method for consistently betting MLB dogs.  I think that's where the money is.

[bostonlager 2,457]

14 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Yes and no.  As far as betting, no, I haven't used his sheet to bet yet.  But I have done a bit of research on it.  

First, over the last week, I went back and checked accuracy on his O/U.  It's winning, but up only about 5 units over the last week.

Second, I've figured out his methodology for the sheet.  Basically, Gregs "straight up money line price" is what his handicap shows the game to be set at. For example, if the "straight up ML" is + or- 127, you try to find a line in a book that is either higher than +127 for a dog, or lower than -127 for chalk.  You bet the better value, and hopefully long term, you win.

If the chalky ML from your book is worse than -150ish, he advises betting the run line to soften the juice.  He was actually good enough to explain this in his podcast this morning after I asked him a question on Twitter about this yesterday. He used a good analogy for avoiding excessive juice on a favorite...last year, even though the Dodgers won 113 games, you lost money long term if you bet them on their ML every game.   I'm still trying to figure out a method for consistently betting MLB dogs.  I think that's where the money is.

Oh yeah, I'm positive the money is made by betting the dogs. Its just a matter of figuring out which dogs to run with. 

I got lazy this week, but will try to take a look and see if I can do anything with the K props with some somewhat long term results. Half unit until June and reevaluate again. I'm 8-4 so far and I'm cool with that, but I find myself wanting to force these plays. You only have a handful to bet each day and the lines are usually pretty tight so most end up being a pass. 

[Fireballer 2,369]

2 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Oh yeah, I'm positive the money is made by betting the dogs. Its just a matter of figuring out which dogs to run with. 

I got lazy this week, but will try to take a look and see if I can do anything with the K props with some somewhat long term results. Half unit until June and reevaluate again. I'm 8-4 so far and I'm cool with that, but I find myself wanting to force these plays. You only have a handful to bet each day and the lines are usually pretty tight so most end up being a pass. 

Gonna sit down tomorrow and check ML performance of all dogs combined, home dogs, and away dogs so far. 

[bostonlager 2,457]

On 4/21/2022 at 2:20 AM, BeenHereBefore said:

Bet on every MLB  game today Under and see how I do and just $3 a game. Think I will do decent.

Good call on this. I bet the rest of the board after I saw this and went 4-1-1 (assuming the BOS/TB game doesn't go over). They are 0-0 in the bottom of 9 so we should be good. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

11 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Good call on this. I bet the rest of the board after I saw this and went 4-1-1 (assuming the BOS/TB game doesn't go over). They are 0-0 in the bottom of 9 so we should be good. 

Yea someone has to eventually score lol. I forget about taking the double headers on the under. That Pirates vs Cubs game earlier was crazy 21-0.

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

Didn't do good on the weekend and overs was slightly better. Fock Sat & Sunday and will bet the under during the week. Didn't lose much but no wins.

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

Only 8 games today and taking under on all!

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

I'm up 13 bucks today at 5 a piece and only 7 games. Two tied the spread and void.

[Horseman 1,511]

Vera +110

Arlovski -135

Brito +180, not the fighter, the price.

Dawson -180, the fighter 2 units.

Elkins -170

Meerschaert +145, soft spot for Meerschaert, ton of submissions including his last 3 opponents.  By submission +325. 

-----------------------------------

Romanov -2000, lol no, I’ll put like $10 on Sherman to win $100 just for action.

Figueiredo +100

Green -135

Breeden +165 not thrilled with either, taking plus money.

Mazany -180 

Candelario +200

[bostonlager 2,457]

On 4/25/2022 at 3:13 AM, BeenHereBefore said:

Only 8 games today and taking under on all!

I’ve been blind betting them all since you posted that and I’m up a nice amount. Good looking out, man 

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

6 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I’ve been blind betting them all since you posted that and I’m up a nice amount. Good looking out, man 

great to hear.

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

Weekends suck on the under and I'm out a few bucks tonight. Was right don't take the under on the weekends and hope you didn't. Not trying this again till Monday.

[Horseman 1,511]

On 4/29/2022 at 2:27 PM, Horseman said:

Vera +110

Arlovski -135

Brito +180, not the fighter, the price.

Dawson -180, the fighter 2 units.

Elkins -170

Meerschaert +145, soft spot for Meerschaert, ton of submissions including his last 3 opponents.  By submission +325. 

-----------------------------------

Romanov -2000, lol no, I’ll put like $10 on Sherman to win $100 just for action.

Figueiredo +100

Green -135

Breeden +165 not thrilled with either, taking plus money.

Mazany -180 

Candelario +200

8-3 I think. Good night.  Cheeto Vera gets a spot on my favorite fighters list. Absorbed 250 significant strikes with hardly a scratch, great defense. Made Font's face into hamburger with more significant strikes. 

[bostonlager 2,457]

On 4/30/2022 at 1:27 AM, BeenHereBefore said:

Weekends suck on the under and I'm out a few bucks tonight. Was right don't take the under on the weekends and hope you didn't. Not trying this again till Monday.

Yesterday was good. Up over 6.5 units betting all of them. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

9 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Yesterday was good. Up over 6.5 units betting all of them. 

Cool and I'm be back at it tomorrow. I been betting on USFL and NBA this weekend.

[Horseman 1,511]

ghost town  

 

Olliveira -135, will be cheering for Gaethje though.  Oliveira will eventually get to his back.

Namajunas -220, this one is intriguing.  Rose lost to Carla eight years ago and Carla has been on tear. But, I think Rose is the younger better fighter right now.  Ugg, that line, +180 for Carla looks good too.

Chandler -360

Rua +200

Cowboy! -180

----------

Brown -105, he can submit ya if he avoids the big punch from Khaos

Trinaldo -105, his body of work is better, the knock is that he’s 43 years old.

Norma -230, I have an aunt named Norma

Royval -260, wins by a mile, load up

-----------

De Lima -140

VanCamp +330, just a sprinkle because of the number

Gatto +120

Rodrigue-360

Godinez -170, man gone back and forth on this one, Carnelossi is a dude so I want to bet her, but going with Loopy.

Garcia – off the board currently

 

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

Any of you guys use FanDuel? I recently deposited $100 because they were offering 25% deposit match for cinco de mayo. I just wanted to play the 25 through the casino and see what I could win. I’ve always been aware that bonuses need to be played through once before they can be eligible for withdrawal. Cool. No problem. 
 

so I initiate a withdrawal and it gets rejected. The app literally says my balance available for withdrawal is $126. I had a chat with customer service and the girl keeps telling me that all deposits have to be played through before being withdrawn. Something about anti-money laundering. ‍. The deposit was directly from my bank account. Seems like they just want to force me to potentially lose money. Also, I have taken advantage of similar deposit bonuses in the past and had no issues doing a withdrawal once my bonus funds had been played through. 
 

if I deposit money to draft kings and decide I don’t want to use it, I can withdraw it immediately with no issues… 

 

is this a legit FanDuel rule? If so when did it change? Had to be recently as I deposited with them around super bowl time…

I could just as easily leave the funds there and use them. It’s $126…. But it’s more the principal. I don’t want to use a service that’s going to take me over the coals like that. 

[listen2me 23 1,537]

13 hours ago, Horseman said:

ghost town  

 

Olliveira -135, will be cheering for Gaethje though.  Oliveira will eventually get to his back.

Namajunas -220, this one is intriguing.  Rose lost to Carla eight years ago and Carla has been on tear. But, I think Rose is the younger better fighter right now.  Ugg, that line, +180 for Carla looks good too.

Chandler -360

Rua +200

Cowboy! -180

----------

Brown -105, he can submit ya if he avoids the big punch from Khaos

Trinaldo -105, his body of work is better, the knock is that he’s 43 years old.

Norma -230, I have an aunt named Norma

Royval -260, wins by a mile, load up

-----------

De Lima -140

VanCamp +330, just a sprinkle because of the number

Gatto +120

Rodrigue-360

Godinez -170, man gone back and forth on this one, Carnelossi is a dude so I want to bet her, but going with Loopy.

Garcia – off the board currently

 

Main Event is tough to call.   I originally liked Oliveira but didn't love the -170 or whatever.    He misses weight and hr cant win thr belt should hr beat Gaethje.  You would think physically and mentally there is a let down there after that.  Gaethje posted a photo of a scale and he already up to 165lbs while Oliveira was in the back still trying to get down to 155.  

Volatile fight with now new adder aspects.  I was about to pounce on Gathje +150 when this was all going on and didn't.  He was bet down to +120 now.  

Long winded response to say I am not betting that fight.  Haha.  I do have Rose to end a  golf/bellator/pfl parlay.  Getting iffy on that one.  I root for her and hope she can win for the sake of not watching lay and pray for rounds.  Rose is thr more skilled fighter but her lack of takedown defense and Carla's relentless wrestling is a clear path to victory.  Lots of "sharps" on Carla at this number.  I may just hedge out if Carla gets to +200. 

I see many of the same "sharps" on Journey Newson at dog odds saying he should be the favorite.    

I may add something but for now its just Rose to close a nice parlay.  

[Horseman 1,511]

20 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Any of you guys use FanDuel? I recently deposited $100 because they were offering 25% deposit match for cinco de mayo. I just wanted to play the 25 through the casino and see what I could win. I’ve always been aware that bonuses need to be played through once before they can be eligible for withdrawal. Cool. No problem. 
 

so I initiate a withdrawal and it gets rejected. The app literally says my balance available for withdrawal is $126. I had a chat with customer service and the girl keeps telling me that all deposits have to be played through before being withdrawn. Something about anti-money laundering. ‍. The deposit was directly from my bank account. Seems like they just want to force me to potentially lose money. Also, I have taken advantage of similar deposit bonuses in the past and had no issues doing a withdrawal once my bonus funds had been played through. 
 

if I deposit money to draft kings and decide I don’t want to use it, I can withdraw it immediately with no issues… 

 

is this a legit FanDuel rule? If so when did it change? Had to be recently as I deposited with them around super bowl time…

I could just as easily leave the funds there and use them. It’s $126…. But it’s more the principal. I don’t want to use a service that’s going to take me over the coals like that. 

You have to meet rollover requirements before you can take that $25. That's what the girl in chat is trying to tell you. For example if its 10x rollover requirements you need to make a total of $250 in qualifying bets before that full $25 is awarded. 

So, even though your account says $126 you really dont have that much. If you made $25 in bets (just 1x rollover) and the extra dollar is profit you only have $100 original deposit + $2.5 in rollover + $1.0 in winnings.  $103.5 total even though they will show your account as having $126.  

ETA: Forget the above, I see it was 1x rollover for that bonus. BUT, it also said "nonwithdrawlable casino credit that will expire after 7 days".  If you've made $25 in bets just wait until next Thursday and you should be able to withdraw.   

[Horseman 1,511]

9 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

 

I see many of the same "sharps" on Journey Newson at dog odds saying he should be the favorite.    

Good call, I should have listened. 
Godinez is beating the crap out of Carnelossi. 
 

Screw it. I don’t like Olivera. Changing up and betting on Geathje. Let’s go Gaethje!

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

3 hours ago, Horseman said:

You have to meet rollover requirements before you can take that $25. That's what the girl in chat is trying to tell you. For example if its 10x rollover requirements you need to make a total of $250 in qualifying bets before that full $25 is awarded. 

So, even though your account says $126 you really dont have that much. If you made $25 in bets (just 1x rollover) and the extra dollar is profit you only have $100 original deposit + $2.5 in rollover + $1.0 in winnings.  $103.5 total even though they will show your account as having $126.  

ETA: Forget the above, I see it was 1x rollover for that bonus. BUT, it also said "nonwithdrawlable casino credit that will expire after 7 days".  If you've made $25 in bets just wait until next Thursday and you should be able to withdraw.   

Negative. The play through for the $25 was 1x. 
 

my account balance is $126 and my “available to withdraw” balance is $126 where as prior to the $25 play through the available to withdraw was only $100. 
 

she’s telling me any deposit needs to okayed through 1x before withdrawing because of NJ state anti money laundering policies  

 

so I withdrew the $26 and requested a refund on my $100 deposit. 

[Horseman 1,511]

My illegal stream of UFC 274 stopped having any buffering issues because the Rose and Carla fight was so boring everyone else stopped watching.  Go ahead and fire your whole coaching team Rose, that plan just cost you the championship when you are clearly the better fighter.  

[Fireballer 2,369]

Dropped a nice chunk on Homa after their approach shots on the 1st. Got him +200 

[Horseman 1,511]

Blachowicz +180

Cuelaba -240

Smolka -250

Feel really good about the next 3 fights at decent numbers *

*Chookagain -160

*Torres -125

*Hadley -210

Lee -120   Very evenly matched main card for the prelims

Patrick +125

Jandiroba -190

Looking to hit an upset somewhere in the first two

Candelario +250

Petroski +280 

[bostonlager 2,457]

PGA Championship tourney matchups

Seamus Power over Tommy Fleetwood   -105

Tyrrell Hatton over Tony Finau   +115

Sepp Straka over Matt Jones   -120

Cameroun Young over Matt Fitzpatrick   +115

[Horseman 1,511]

*****5 Star Mega Lock of the Week*****

Justin Rose to win the PGA  +15000

Back the truck up. 

[Horseman 1,511]

Holm -260  Line is about right, want her to win tho so cheering bet.

Pereira -140 Good number should win.  Favorite bet of the night 2U.

Njokuani -260 can’t ignore the Barriault win and why the number is big

Ricci -125, but go ahead and check out Polyana Viana’s Instagram

Park -195 sticking with guys that have beaten Barriault

--------------

Amendovski +175

Porter +425 small.  Almeida moves up to heavyweight to stay on the card.  Parker has a wrestling advantage sometimes at heavyweight, but Almeida is far superior in that regard now.  Number is too big though so hoping Parker can use his weight and big punches somehow on a small bet.

Medic +115

Martinez -260

Colares -180

Hughes +135

[bostonlager 2,457]

Anyone have pony plays for the Preakness? 

[Alias Detective 1,179]

1 hour ago, bostonlager said:

Anyone have pony plays for the Preakness? 

I too like the 4 horse.

[Horseman 1,511]

On 5/20/2022 at 4:48 PM, Horseman said:

Holm -260  Line is about right, want her to win tho so cheering bet.

Pereira -140 Good number should win.  Favorite bet of the night 2U.

Njokuani -260 can’t ignore the Barriault win and why the number is big

Ricci -125, but go ahead and check out Polyana Viana’s Instagram

Park -195 sticking with guys that have beaten Barriault

--------------

Amendovski +175

Porter +425 small.  Almeida moves up to heavyweight to stay on the card.  Parker has a wrestling advantage sometimes at heavyweight, but Almeida is far superior in that regard now.  Number is too big though so hoping Parker can use his weight and big punches somehow on a small bet.

Medic +115

Martinez -260

Colares -180

Hughes +135

8-3 not counting the small on Parker.  

Horrible split decision in Holm's fight.  I had it 49-46, I knew there would be some 48-47 in there, but, no way she lost with all that control time.  No way.  When the crowd lets out a gasp instead of a cheer you know the scorecards are BS.  

[Horseman 1,511]

Where are all the degens?  

I hate when Fight Night starts in the day time!  Not really Fight "Night" is it dumb shiits.  Might not be able to catch them all this week. 

This card is all about the two main events. The main fight and the prelim main. 

 

Volkov -160.  33 KOs between these two punchers. Going to be fireworks. 

Ige +330. Hes got a chance so I'll take the big plus money. 

Trizano-230

Botelho +105

Adashev -260

Menifield -260

---------

Herrig -125.  Rematch where Herrig lost a split decision at UFC 235. The blonde bombshell gets it done this time. Left her hanging at the weigh in. 

Solecki -175 really like this one too

Jackson -600 

Saint Denis -160

Munoz +105

Molina -180

Michailidis +220

Blanchfield -550

 

NEXT WEEK. Super pumped for UFC 275.  Going to be one of my biggest bets of the year.  Maybe even bigger than my Sean Strickland bet.  

 

 

[Horseman 1,511]

On 6/3/2022 at 8:08 PM, Horseman said:

NEXT WEEK. Super pumped for UFC 275.  Going to be one of my biggest bets of the year.  Maybe even bigger than my Sean Strickland bet.  

I think I went 7-7 (2-1 bolded) last week.  Meh.  We get it back this week.  

Jiří Procházka -200  Here it is, 5-star, bet the farm, I’m making a huge bet here.  When I saw Jiri knock out Reyes with a spinning elbow I told myself I will never bet against this guy.  It’s been a nice run Glover’s twilight of his carrier finally getting the title at age 42.  But, he’s not going to have it anymore.  Clover’s only chance is to try and wrestle him, take it to the ground somehow get him in submission, that just doesn’t seem likely as the Czech will look to knock his lights out as soon as he gets in range.  Jiri has, count them, 10 knock outs in his last 10 fights spanning six years.  They guy wants to fight and kill you.  He’s been fighting since exiting the womb: As a teen Jiri got in street fights weekly, 100s of them. He joined the hooligan club tied to the local soccer team where he would take part in organized group street fights with clubs of other teams, even participating in 30-on-30 brawls. Jiri has a bachelor’s degree majoring in Security Forces Physical Fitness Policy. He’s a devoted follower of Bushido.  HE IS A BAD BAD MAN.

Valentina Shevchenko -625  This is a lock as the number suggests.  She’s had 4 KOs in 7 title fights so the better bet might be to take the number by TKO.

Jedrzejczyk +140  She’s a beauty when her face isn’t beat in like the last time she fought Weili, but, it went to the scorecards as a split decision and she’s had nothing since then but to think about revenge while Weili lost the belt to Rose, and then lost again in the rematch.  Crazy division now Rose lost to Esparza in what amounts to be the worst coaching and game plan in MMA history. I’d prefer Weili just go away since Rose beat her twice and have Jedrzejczyk waiting in the wings after what seems a forgone conclusion of a Rose - Exparza rematch.

Kape -230  Kape has knock out power where Bontorin likes to grapple, I just don’t see that Bontorin has had any success grappling or submitting anybody lately.

Della Maddalena -160

------------

Allen -300

Culibao +200

Garcia -170

Matthews +120

----------

Danaa -135

Gomez Juarez -140

Pascual +135

[Horseman 1,511]

On 6/9/2022 at 3:23 PM, Horseman said:

I think I went 7-7 (2-1 bolded) last week.  Meh.  We get it back this week.  

Jiří Procházka -200  Here it is, 5-star, bet the farm, I’m making a huge bet here.  When I saw Jiri knock out Reyes with a spinning elbow I told myself I will never bet against this guy.  It’s been a nice run Glover’s twilight of his carrier finally getting the title at age 42.  But, he’s not going to have it anymore.  Clover’s only chance is to try and wrestle him, take it to the ground somehow get him in submission, that just doesn’t seem likely as the Czech will look to knock his lights out as soon as he gets in range.  Jiri has, count them, 10 knock outs in his last 10 fights spanning six years.  They guy wants to fight and kill you.  He’s been fighting since exiting the womb: As a teen Jiri got in street fights weekly, 100s of them. He joined the hooligan club tied to the local soccer team where he would take part in organized group street fights with clubs of other teams, even participating in 30-on-30 brawls. Jiri has a bachelor’s degree majoring in Security Forces Physical Fitness Policy. He’s a devoted follower of Bushido.  HE IS A BAD BAD MAN.

Valentina Shevchenko -625  This is a lock as the number suggests.  She’s had 4 KOs in 7 title fights so the better bet might be to take the number by TKO.

Jedrzejczyk +140  She’s a beauty when her face isn’t beat in like the last time she fought Weili, but, it went to the scorecards as a split decision and she’s had nothing since then but to think about revenge while Weili lost the belt to Rose, and then lost again in the rematch.  Crazy division now Rose lost to Esparza in what amounts to be the worst coaching and game plan in MMA history. I’d prefer Weili just go away since Rose beat her twice and have Jedrzejczyk waiting in the wings after what seems a forgone conclusion of a Rose - Exparza rematch.

Kape -230  Kape has knock out power where Bontorin likes to grapple, I just don’t see that Bontorin has had any success grappling or submitting anybody lately.

Della Maddalena -160

------------

Allen -300

Culibao +200

Garcia -170

Matthews +120

----------

Danaa -135

Gomez Juarez -140

Pascual +135

Kape fight canceled. 

Fialho -135 over Mathews. I like that even better. 

[Horseman 1,511]

Bump for fight night. 

One way to bet on Shevchenko without paying the large price is to take her by KO-TKO-DQ +200 and by decision +100. That way if it goes all 5 it's a bull bet and if she gets the stoppage you double your money. 

Taking Jiri with a KO -160 would save some money too. If it goes all 5 that would definitely favor Glover.  

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

I took the Yanks today and they have some HR hitters beside Judge tonight.

[BeenHereBefore 1,329]

I'm watching Home Run Derby now!

[Horseman 1,511]

On 6/9/2022 at 3:23 PM, Horseman said:

I think I went 7-7 (2-1 bolded) last week.  Meh.  We get it back this week.  

Jiří Procházka -200  Here it is, 5-star, bet the farm, I’m making a huge bet here.  When I saw Jiri knock out Reyes with a spinning elbow I told myself I will never bet against this guy.  It’s been a nice run Glover’s twilight of his carrier finally getting the title at age 42.  But, he’s not going to have it anymore.  Clover’s only chance is to try and wrestle him, take it to the ground somehow get him in submission, that just doesn’t seem likely as the Czech will look to knock his lights out as soon as he gets in range.  Jiri has, count them, 10 knock outs in his last 10 fights spanning six years.  They guy wants to fight and kill you.  He’s been fighting since exiting the womb: As a teen Jiri got in street fights weekly, 100s of them. He joined the hooligan club tied to the local soccer team where he would take part in organized group street fights with clubs of other teams, even participating in 30-on-30 brawls. Jiri has a bachelor’s degree majoring in Security Forces Physical Fitness Policy. He’s a devoted follower of Bushido.  HE IS A BAD BAD MAN

A lot closer fight than I thought, went 6-5 tonight but scored big on the mega bet.  Jiri is for real.  Money money money.  

Hmmmmm.  I see Strickland is on the card for UFC 276.  Who wants to make some moooooooney?

[listen2me 23 1,537]

Where ys at horse?

UFC 276

Omalley by dec +200

[Alias Detective 1,179]

8 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

Where ys at horse?

UFC 276

Omalley by dec +200

Took O’Malley by ko in each round.  The longer it goes the more I make.

[Alias Detective 1,179]

8 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

Where ys at horse?

UFC 276

Omalley by dec +200

This too