***Wagering thread***

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

NCAAF Saturday

ISU  +15.5  

Miss. St.  -3.5  

LSU/Florida  U50.5  

Arkansas/BYU  O66.5  

Tennessee  +8.5  

 

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

4 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

I tailed you and will continue too.  Keep chin up!  
 

PSU +7 homer bet.

Thanks man though I took Mich -7 at start and then Penn State + 15.5 a few minutes ago. Penn State would have been a homer pick for me too. State just scored as I'm typing this and could get interesting.

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

I'm taking Bama -9 and think they win by 14 or more.

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

32 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

I'm taking Bama -9 and think they win by 14 or more.

I’ve gone back and forth on that game for a few days now. I can see Tennessee pulling off the upset but I could also see Alabama winning by 30. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I’ve gone back and forth on that game for a few days now. I can see Tennessee pulling off the upset but I could also see Alabama winning by 30. 

Me too and was leaning towards Tenn at first but seeing the points go up a bit for Tenn got me going Bama.

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

2 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Me too and was leaning towards Tenn at first but seeing the points go up a bit for Tenn got me going Bama.

I think Tenn is the popular pick. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

I think Tenn is the popular pick. 

Me too!

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

48 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

I'm taking Bama -9 and think they win by 14 or more.

 

[bostonlager 2,463]

 

[Fireballer 2,381]

37 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

 

I got no dog in this fight, but I do love to watch a high ranked SEC game.

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

17 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

I got no dog in this fight, but I do love to watch a high ranked SEC game.

I do and have Bama -9 and +3.5 but not a fan of either team though. Also agree cool to watch a good SEC game.

[bostonlager 2,463]

23 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

I got no dog in this fight, but I do love to watch a high ranked SEC game.

I’m a Buckeye, but I have a place outside of Knoxville so they are kinda my team B. SEC football cannot be beat. I love the CBS music at 3:30 every Saturday. It’s a shame it’s moving to ESPN

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

Wow refs favoring Tenn the whole game.

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

Going FS+4.5 against Clemson.

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

Man I love college football!!!  What a fun game. 

[bostonlager 2,463]

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Man I love college football!!!  What a fun game. 

I hope the Vols and Georgia are both still undefeated in 3 weeks That could be another great one. 

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

12 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

NCAAF Saturday

ISU  +15.5  

Miss. St.  -3.5  

LSU/Florida  U50.5  

Arkansas/BYU  O66.5  

Tennessee  +8.5  

 

Got off to a great start but fizzled out. Still a winning day. 

[craftsman 1,045]

Dang, I took Alabama today. I had no idea how bad their defense could be. 

Tomorrow I'm thinking the Vikings and Ravens can cover. Even though they are both on the road. 

 

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

1 hour ago, craftsman said:

Dang, I took Alabama today. I had no idea how bad their defense could be. 

Tomorrow I'm thinking the Vikings and Ravens can cover. Even though they are both on the road. 

 

I’m liking the Packers, Patriots and 49ers so far. Won’t place any bets until the morning though. 

[bostonlager 2,463]

15 teaser bets using all combinations for these teams

Jaguars +8.5

Saints +8.5 

Patriots +8.5

Packers -1.5 

Seahawks +8.5

Chiefs +8.5 

 

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

Was too busy to place any bets for the early games. Here’s what I took for the late games so far.

Seahawks  +2.5  

Rams  -10  

Bills  -2.5  

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Was too busy to place any bets for the early games. Here’s what I took for the late games so far.

Seahawks  +2.5

Rams  -10

Bills  -2.5

Yea I didn't bet the early ones either, I have Rams -10 and the under on the KC vs Buff game.

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

Oh I forgot I did have a $1 on Joey Logano and that worked out. PS. that 62 yard FG look like it could have went for 70.

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Was too busy to place any bets for the early games. Here’s what I took for the late games so far.

Seahawks  +2.5  

Rams  -10  

Bills  -2.5  

Maybe it’s a good thing I waited for the late games. Worked well. 

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

SNF

Eagles  -7

[BeenHereBefore 1,332]

28 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Maybe it’s a good thing I waited for the late games. Worked well. 

Me to and same on the Rams, had the under in the KC game and live bet KC + 5.5 and Joey Logano. Glad you did good and I got back the money I lost yesterday. I should just stick to the NFL but I won't. Don't know who I like tonight and took Dallas on a small bet and probably do some live betting in the game later.

[Fireballer 2,381]

This Cooper Rush train stops dead in it'd tracks in Philly.  I got Philly 1H ML/Yanks/Guardians live U11 parlay

[bostonlager 2,463]

Just now, Fireballer said:

This Cooper Rush train stops dead in it'd tracks in Philly.  I got Philly 1H ML/Yanks/Guardians live U11.

NBA starts Tuesday. Based on what Pine has done with MLB and NHL so far, I’m going all in. 

[Fireballer 2,381]

3 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

NBA starts Tuesday. Based on what Pine has done with MLB and NHL so far, I’m going all in. 

Awesome.  I'm tailing.  I just haven't had time to do alot of research right now.  It's amazing all that info is free

[bostonlager 2,463]

1 minute ago, Fireballer said:

Awesome.  I'm tailing.  I just haven't had time to do alot of research right now.  It's amazing all that info is free

Totally agree. My only complaint is they don't pay much attention to injuries. Was surprised they had Kenneth Walker projected under 28 yards rushing today. Other than that, they seem spot on. Shouldn't be hard to hit props at 60% or better. 

[Fireballer 2,381]

Just now, bostonlager said:

Totally agree. My only complaint is they don't pay much attention to injuries. Was surprised they had Kenneth Walker projected under 28 yards rushing today. Other than that, they seem spot on. Shouldn't be hard to hit props at 60% or better. 

Their free Discord is worth checking out too

[bostonlager 2,463]

3 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Their free Discord is worth checking out too

I haven't yet, but will definitely do so. If they can be solid on NBA/MLB/NHL and I continue my own football - this will be year round free money. 

[Fireballer 2,381]

1 hour ago, bostonlager said:

I haven't yet, but will definitely do so. If they can be solid on NBA/MLB/NHL and I continue my own football - this will be year round free money. 

I pulled this off pine discord.  Dude is hitting 69% NHL saves so far he says.

 

Alright it's kinda complicated so I hope I explain it well. 
1.Take each goalies average sv % of last 5 games.
2. Next take each goalies average sv % VS their opponent going back to last season but keep it under 5 games total. 
3. Create a blended sv % between steps 1 and 2. Right now I weighted a goalies L5 60% and vs Opp 40% although I might change that throughout the season to test different numbers
4. Now look at each team. 
5. Get each teams average shots against for their last 5 games. ( we will use this later) 
6. Next Take each team's average shots for in last 5 games 
7. Next Take each team's average shots for VS opp again going back to last season if needed but keep at 5 games max. 
8.optional I like to take down each team's average goals in their last 5 games just as a reference. 
9. Now we get to the actual calculations. I create a blend giving 30% weight to a team's shots for in their last 5 games, 40% weight to the opponents shots allowed in the last 5 games, and then 30% weight to a team's shots for against that opponent. (Again might change these weights as the season goes on) this calculation gets an "expected SOG per team
10. Finally I have 2 if statements that make tiny tweaks to the number in step 9. 
10a. First if statement: if the team is the underdog (+odds) I multiply expected SOG by -5% if the team is favorite (- odds) I multiple expected goals by 5% 
10b. Second if statement: if the team had a rest day in between last game as this game, I do nothing else. If they played a game yesterday but they didn't have to travel, I multiply expected SOG by -10%. If they played a game yesterday and had to travel for this game, I multiply expected SOG by -20%  
11. To find out expected saves for each goalie, I take my final expected SOG* the blended sv % we calculated earlier. 
12. Then finally to find expected goals, you take your final expected SOG minus each goalies expected saves. 

That's it. Hope it makes sense lol

[Fireballer 2,381]

2 hours ago, Fireballer said:

This Cooper Rush train stops dead in it'd tracks in Philly.  I got Philly 1H ML/Yanks/Guardians live U11 parlay

This is why I only took Philly 1H moneyline.  They be letting teams off the hook.

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

13 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

SNF

Eagles  -7  

Got the clean sweep yesterday.  Had a pretty solid weekend.

[Shooter McGavin 589]

Bounce back weekend after a dismal week prior.  Hit my parlay Thursday night, Tennessee ML was fun Saturday, and then hit most everything yesterday including my 6 leg teaser.  Lost my parlay last night but still a plus weekend.

[bostonlager 2,463]

over 3.5 on both pitchers tonight. 

JustinCharge o 23.5 completions

[Fireballer 2,381]

8 leg parlay +300 free bet

Denver +14.5

Under 55.5

Ekler 25+ rush

Sutton 25+ rec

Judy 25+ rec

Herbert 200+

Williams 25+

Gordon 25+ rush

 

 

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

MNF

The Chargers seem like the obvious pick here and that’s why I’m going the other way.

Broncos  +4

Total  U45.5

[Fireballer 2,381]

59 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

MNF

The Chargers seem like the obvious pick here and that’s why I’m going the other way.

Broncos  +4

Total  U45.5

48% of bets and 75% of money is on Denver to cover. 45% of bets and 95% of money on the under. Fading the public can be a good strategy