Please rank these 3rd Round RB's, drafting today... THANKS !!!!

[nobody 2,074]

Everybody dumping on Dobbins made me go back and look at the numbers.  First off, I was surprised that Mark Ingram only had 72 carries.

Also I noticed after the Raves' week 7 bye, Ingram became an afterthought and Dobbins became the lead back averaging 12 carries per game and 1.3 receptions per game.

Let's say he averages something like 4.5 ypc (he averaged 5.9 last year) and 8 yards per reception.  That's looking like about 1000 yards all purpose plus he's the goal line back, so give him 10 TDs.  That's about 180 fantasy points in PPR over 16 games.  That's high end RB2 range.

[AxeElf 787]

23 minutes ago, nobody said:

Let's say he averages something like 4.5 ypc (he averaged 5.9 last year) and 8 yards per reception.  That's looking like about 1000 yards all purpose plus he's the goal line back, so give him 10 TDs.  That's about 180 fantasy points in PPR over 16 games.  That's high end RB2 range.

So if everything goes perfectly according to the best-case scenario, Dobbins could possibly return the kind of value you're paying for when you draft him in the third round.

And if it doesn't?

[snatchit 108]

Well Dobbins was gone... I took the upside play and took Swift over Montgomery and Carson, I know, I know.... Its a full point ppr leagues though, and I do believe he will catch a ton of balls. They said he will be ready for week 1. They have a good oline, and the coach said he is a special player. So I got him at 3.8. Not the conservative pick, but I am swinging for the fences this year. I have some safe guys sprinkled in my lineup. Thanks for all your help !!!

[weepaws 2,495]

Sorry , but I think swift over Montgomery and Carson is a mistake. 

The Lions are going to be awful, and J Williams is going to be involved, and probably more so in the passing game. 

Swinging for the fences would have been Montgomery and or Carson. That’s unbelievable that both Carson and Montgomery were both still available.  

Good luck. 

[weepaws 2,495]

That’s about right, I have Dobbins as a high to mid rb2. 

 

[snatchit 108]

9 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Sorry , but I think swift over Montgomery and Carson is a mistake. 

The Lions are going to be awful, and J Williams is going to be involved, and probably more so in the passing game. 

Swinging for the fences would have been Montgomery and or Carson. That’s unbelievable that both Carson and Montgomery were both still available.  

Good luck. 

I had Montgomery last year, he was great down the stretch... I just dont trust Naggy

How much longer can Carson take the beating ? 

I did a lot of homework on these guys. Swift will be their primary pass catcher, and goal line guy. 

Sometimes you just have to look at explosive talent, he wins there. 

[weepaws 2,495]

44 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

So if everything goes perfectly according to the best-case scenario, Dobbins could possibly return the kind of value you're paying for when you draft him in the third round.

And if it doesn't?

Then it doesn’t , so is Dobbins a rb1, rb2, or a rb3 ? 

[weepaws 2,495]

1 minute ago, snatchit said:

I had Montgomery last year, he was great down the stretch... I just dont trust Naggy

How much longer can Carson take the beating ? 

I did a lot of homework on these guys. Swift will be their primary pass catcher, and goal line guy. 

Sometimes you just have to look at explosive talent, he wins there. 

I don’t know why I wouldn’t trust Nagy, Montgomery was great the second half of season, I trust that Montgomery will be good again. .i think that has a lot to do with Montgomery getting it and understanding how to play rb in the nfl, that I trust.

Looks like Carson as at least one more season in him, he’s without question the best rb on the Seahawks. 

To say you don’t trust Nagy, are you then saying you trust the Lions coaches, you have seen repeatedly that J Williams is going to play and play a lot? 

Plus the Lions aren’t going to be able to move the ball, might be the worst situation in the nfl. 

Hey just my feed back and I know you wanted to know what everyone thanks which is why you posted that you took Swift. 

Once again good luck.  

[AxeElf 787]

1 hour ago, snatchit said:

I took the upside play and took Swift over Montgomery and Carson,

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[nobody 2,074]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

So if everything goes perfectly according to the best-case scenario, Dobbins could possibly return the kind of value you're paying for when you draft him in the third round.

And if it doesn't?

If everything goes perfectly, Dobbins averages 5 ypc, and gets 65% of the carries and returns RB1 value.

[AxeElf 787]

13 minutes ago, nobody said:

If everything goes perfectly, Dobbins averages 5 ypc, and gets 65% of the carries and returns RB1 value.

As long as you're dreaming, you might as well have him send you a check after every game to make up for your lost entry fees.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

9 hours ago, tanatastic said:

This is kind of where I’m at too. When too much noise is coming from one direction I start to think the other way will be right. 

If someone recommends you a good show that everyone likes you'll trash it without giving it a chance. You're one of those?

[tanatastic 2,061]

2 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

If someone recommends you a good show that everyone likes you'll trash it without giving it a chance. You're one of those?

 

What I mean is In FF, every year, MANY players that were doubted end up studs and MANY players that were considered studs bust hard. When public perception starts to swing poorly too far I begin to think that player could now be a value at his adp and even surprise people by exceeding expectations. This is a case by case basis and not universal. 

[LoOnAtIk 75]

35 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

 

What I mean is In FF, every year, MANY players that were doubted end up studs and MANY players that were considered studs bust hard. When public perception starts to swing poorly too far I begin to think that player could now be a value at his adp and even surprise people by exceeding expectations. This is a case by case basis and not universal. 

Your first sentence seems to contradict your closing sentence. I’d change the word “MANY” that you capitalized twice into “sometimes”.
 

I don’t think you can provide any actual correlation between pre-season hype and then having a bust season.

[AxeElf 787]

18 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I don’t think you can provide any actual correlation between pre-season hype and then having a bust season.

Well you can, but it's largely attributable to regression to the mean.  The higher the expectations, the more likely they are to be failed.  You can only bust when something is expected of you.

[weepaws 2,495]

Like I said , when I see people not agreeing with me about a player that pertains to ff , and I feel like that player can  perform at a level I truly believe is obtainable by the player despite others feeling of that player , I know I’m on the right track to ff victory. And I’m sure others feel the same, like when it comes to Swift. 

That clearly has nothing to do with a movie. It as to do with ff  

 

 

[LoOnAtIk 75]

11 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Well you can, but it's largely attributable to regression to the mean.  The higher the expectations, the more likely they are to be failed.  You can only bust when something is expected of you.

Higher expectations ≠ Majority of owners agree on subject

 

Have players been overhyped and underhyped before by fantasy football players? Yes absolutely. Should that have any affect on their Sunday output? Absolutely not.

 

In this case the correlation does not imply causation. So no, you can’t.

[tanatastic 2,061]

8 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Your first sentence seems to contradict your closing sentence. I’d change the word “MANY” that you capitalized twice into “sometimes”.
 

I don’t think you can provide any actual correlation between pre-season hype and then having a bust season.

I’ll stick with MANY, because it’s many every year. I didn’t contradict anything, my closing sentence simply told you that I don’t apply that to every public opinion and it’s a case by case basis. Had nothinfg to do with the opening sentence. So I’m not “one of those” with your TV analogy. I’m not trying to prove the Davinci code to you, I’m just saying how I felt. I don’t need to “correlate” anything, I can just say “I have a gut feeling people are wrong about this guy.” and that’s all I need to say to have an opinion. FF is all about gut feelings, speculation, educated guessing etc in the name of trying to find value at adps. 

[joeshushu 51]

Well I hope Monty is more like the 2020 than the 2019 fantasy back.  I grabbed him in the fourth as my number 2.  First week matchup is tough but has some nice matchups later.

[AxeElf 787]

8 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

In this case the correlation does not imply causation. So no, you can’t.

Look, I'm having a hard enough time crowbarring a little fantasy wisdom into your cranium; I'm not about to begin trying to bring you up to speed in statistical applications as well--and this isn't even the forum for it.  I'm afraid you're just going to have to remain ignorant on this one.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

13 hours ago, tanatastic said:

FF is all about gut feelings, speculation, educated guessing etc

Agree to disagree. Public opinion in fantasy has no affect on how these guys ACTUALLY perform. Half of them don't even know what fantasy football is.

I like to lean on stats and inside reporting more than just my "gut feeling".  

To each his own.

[snatchit 108]

1 minute ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Agree to disagree. Public opinion in fantasy has no affect on how these guys ACTUALLY perform. Half of them don't even know what fantasy football is.

I like to lean on stats and inside reporting more than just my "gut feeling".  

To each his own.

Sometimes  i just go for talent 

[weepaws 2,495]

Ff is all about 100% no bones about it, Luck. 

 

[skinsrule05 30]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Ff is all about 100% no bones about it, Luck. 

 

I agree it is a lot of luck but not 100%. You can move things in your favor. The discussion here is a good example. Some people are advocating Dobbins and arguing if all things go his way it will justify his draft spot. Since they need multiple assumptions to work out they would need to be luckier. It can still work out. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,153]

100%?  No... but definitely 80%+.