Stock Market bubble - will burst - it did, and recovered twice. ***Official thread***

[Horseman 2,746]

And bang!

S&P 500 closes at new record high.  Thanks Santa Trump! 

[seafoam1 3,533]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

And bang!

S&P 500 closes at new record high.  Thanks Santa Trump! 

This year has been awesome. 

[easilyscan 1,091]

Holy crap!

Live Silver Price

Dec 23, 2025 - 17:11 NY Time

Bid

71.41

USD

+2.43 (+3.52%)

[Horseman 2,746]

It's a Christmas Miracle!!!!

Trump!

Tarrifs!

[Horseman 2,746]

21 hours ago, Horseman said:

And bang!

S&P 500 closes at new record high.  Thanks Santa Trump! 

I got what I wanted for Christmas!

Another All Time High today. Merry Christmas everyone!

[Hardcore troubadour 16,076]

Poor Gutterboy got out. Shame. 

[easilyscan 1,091]

"Hi-Ho Silver" 

$77.66 USD

+6.04 +8.45%

[easilyscan 1,091]

Interesting article. I've been humbled too many times to taunt anyone. Like my recent prediction that silver was a blow off top at $65......oops

https://www.fastbull.com/news-detail/gold-silver-bulls-taunt-bitcoin-investors-amid-parabolic-4362194_0

 

 

 

[lickin_starfish 2,040]

Trump wants a weaker dollar for competitiveness (inflation). The system is designed to run on ever-expanding debt and money printing (inflation). BRICS countries are preparing to break free from the USD. When those dollars flood back home, watch out. Central Banks around the world are buying physical gold. Everything is coming to a head, that's why I find precious metals interesting.

[tubby_mcgee 702]

It's recovered every time its dipped, every time its dropped, every time it's "bursted" 

It will always do what it's done until it doesn't.   

I'll gamble on that it will always do what it does. Therefore my cumulative investment total has doubled since it's inception.  

Drop. I don't care. Burst, I don't care.  Those are the times the newbies sell and I get discounts. 
 

[tubby_mcgee 702]

On 12/24/2025 at 12:09 PM, Horseman said:

I got what I wanted for Christmas!

Another All Time High today. Merry Christmas everyone!

Unless you're done investing in the stock market, you should want an avalanche collapse at some point.  

[tubby_mcgee 702]

On 1/24/2022 at 3:56 PM, Baker Boy said:

And cash lost 6.8% last year

Depends on how you look at it. 

 

[Horseman 2,746]

1 hour ago, tubby_mcgee said:

Unless you're done investing in the stock market, you should want an avalanche collapse at some point.  

Not necessarily true.  And that only works if you're DCA'ing in and not trying to time the market.  Even with a big downturn there are always more upturns you miss out on if youre waiting.  Always.    

I find the best thing to take advantage of big swings is reballncing.  Effectively increasing your number of shares in both ups and downs.  

 

[easilyscan 1,091]

3 hours ago, tubby_mcgee said:

Unless you're done investing in the stock market, you should want an avalanche collapse at some point.  

I don't know if it would be your definition of an avalanche, but when the Dow dropped to around 37K during the tariff tantrum last April, myself and others here gobbled up every Google share we could.

It was before my time, but I've studied the history of the averages. While there were companies that did well during the time (Walmart for example) the averages basically went nowhere from 1965 to 1980. 

Remember Joe Kernan from CNBC telling a story. He was an intern at a brokerage house in 1980. He said something like this. 

No one was buying stocks, no one was selling stocks, no one even wanted to talk about stocks. Compare that to today. I don't think we could ever have a period like that again because there's never been a better time to be an American multinational corporation.

If I have a concern, it's when/if the US dollar is no longer the world currency of choice & the treasury (taxpayers) gets the equivalent of a margin call.

 

If that was ever to happen, let's just say we'd be Randolph and Mortimer Duke

 

[easilyscan 1,091]

The silver market should be very interesting Monday. Not that I'm going to buy or sell (did all my buying in 2017) & never plan on selling.

I'll be watching because of this video.

 

[lickin_starfish 2,040]

 

[nobody 2,946]

I wouldn't be dancing on bitcoin's grave.  There are a lot of smart and powerful sociopaths invested in Bitcoin.  They don't lose money.

[thegeneral 3,711]

Up in all three accounts this year. Just a tick under 20% in my main one with a couple days left. Not too hard when the main Index Funds are at like 18%.

A great year. Have the cash reserves built up a bit but will deploy them at a moment’s notice. Hopefully got another year in it. 

[Horseman 2,746]

10 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Up in all three accounts this year. Just a tick under 20% in my main one with a couple days left. Not too hard when the main Index Funds are at like 18%.

A great year. Have the cash reserves built up a bit but will deploy them at a moment’s notice. Hopefully got another year in it. 

Bold- I would hope so.   lol.  I don't have a single negative position. Zero to tax harvest, I've never had that happen before.  

If your waiting to time the market with cash you are more than likely going to miss out on more gains than it's worth. You're better of DCA'ing in. 

And does that 20% include contributions?  Guessing it does.    

 

[Horseman 2,746]

@easilyscan

If we're still going to post year totals how do you plan to handle contributions?  Mine would be wacky this year compared to everyone else.  

[thegeneral 3,711]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

Bold- I would hope so.   lol.  I don't have a single negative position. Zero to tax harvest, I've never had that happen before.  

If your waiting to time the market with cash you ard more than likely going to miss out on more gains than it's worth. You're better of CDA'ing in. 

And does that 20% include contributions?  Guessing it does.    

 

It’s been impossible to lose for a few years now. I like having anywhere from 5-10% in safe spots. Still makes money, I’ll stick with that. 

YTD gain includes all money put in. When the account has grown so yuge that doesn’t make much a difference

[Horseman 2,746]

1 minute ago, thegeneral said:

It’s been impossible to lose for a few years now. I like having anywhere from 5-10% in safe spots. Still makes money, I’ll stick with that. 

YTD gain includes all money put in. When the account has grown so yuge that doesn’t make much a difference

10% is a good nunber for you.  At least use a bond etf or something.   

Your contributions should make a difference if you are in your money making years.  Do you have an after tax 401k option ?  

[thegeneral 3,711]

Just now, Horseman said:

10% is a good nunber for you.  At least use a bond etf or something.   

Your contributions should make a difference if you are in your money making years.  Do you have an after tax 401k option ?  

I usually have it closer to 5%: All Roth 401k this year after splitting 18% between trad and Roth when the company first offered that option.

[Horseman 2,746]

2 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I usually have it closer to 5%: All Roth 401k this year after splitting 18% between trad and Roth when the company first offered that option.

It's possible to have 3 options: 

1- Traditional 401k

2- Roth 401k

3- After Tax 401k

If you don't have #3 you should be begging them to get it. 

 

[thegeneral 3,711]

4 minutes ago, Horseman said:

It's possible to have 3 options: 

1- Traditional 401k

2- Roth 401k

3- After Tax 401k

If you don't have #3 you should be begging them to get it. 

 

This gets a little out of my depth. I believe they have this however.

[Horseman 2,746]

1 hour ago, thegeneral said:

This gets a little out of my depth. I believe they have this however.

Then you can make more than the regular 401k maximum contributions.  

Instead of $23,500 (plus $7,500 if over age 50) you can put up to $70,000 total with the After Tax 401k.  Then each year (or twice each year like I did) take that approx $40,000 (70k minus what you put in the Roth 401k portion) in the After Tax 401k and roll it over to a Roth IRA account.   Then you'll never pay taxes on it again.  

Plux max out your HSA. Plus max out regular IRA, backdoor if you have to (possibly for wife too), and you're contributing close to six figures a year that grows Tax free forever.   That's not insignificant.  

Google Mega Backdoor Roth to read more.  I can work out the exact numbers for you if you want. 

[Chickie 85]

On 10/12/2025 at 12:21 PM, Ron_Artest said:

Massive insider trading. Thirty minutes before Trump’s China tariff announcement, a crypto “whale” opened a $100M+ short on Bitcoin.

4:30 PM: Whale opens $100M+ BTC short

4:50 PM: Trump announces 100% tariffs on China

5:20 PM: $19.3 B in liquidations hit the market

The whale’s profit: $192 million

It’s good to be the King

[Hardcore troubadour 16,076]

Gutterboy said to get out a while back. I give him credit for actually doing it. 

[thegeneral 3,711]

9 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Then you can make more than the regular 401k maximum contributions.  

Instead of $23,500 (plus $7,500 if over age 50) you can put up to $70,000 total with the After Tax 401k.  Then each year (or twice each year like I did) take that approx $40,000 (70k minus what you put in the Roth 401k portion) in the After Tax 401k and roll it over to a Roth IRA account.   Then you'll never pay taxes on it again.  

Plux max out your HSA. Plus max out regular IRA, backdoor if you have to (possibly for wife too), and you're contributing close to six figures a year that grows Tax free forever.   That's not insignificant.  

Google Mega Backdoor Roth to read more.  I can work out the exact numbers for you if you want. 

I don’t think I will put enough away to take advantage of this in a meaningful way but will look into it. Thanks.

[easilyscan 1,091]

2 hours ago, Horseman said:

@easilyscan

If we're still going to post year totals how do you plan to handle contributions?  Mine would be wacky this year compared to everyone else.  

Are you referring to situations like this ?
I’ve consolidated the majority of my investments @ Fidelity.

Individual Taxable Account
Traditional IRA 
Rollover IRA (previously my Vanguard 401(k))
Health Savings Account

The largest is the taxable account. I use credit cards for all my day-to-day transactions & pay the 4 monthly bills out of the cash in that account.
I also pull cash from there when I have a large bill, like 14 K for a new shingles/roof in 2023. 

To account for this, Fidelity uses something called time-weighted rate of return. 

Maybe you were referring to tax deductible contributions to IRA’s/401(k)s ? 
in that case, it seems like they’d account for that by applying the same method Fidelity uses.

 

[Gepetto 1,484]

My personalized rate of return is 

 18.3%

Date range 01/01/2025 - 12/27/2025

[Horseman 2,746]

20 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Are you referring to situations like this ?
I’ve consolidated the majority of my investments @ Fidelity.

Individual Taxable Account
Traditional IRA 
Rollover IRA (previously my Vanguard 401(k))
Health Savings Account

The largest is the taxable account. I use credit cards for all my day-to-day transactions & pay the 4 monthly bills out of the cash in that account.
I also pull cash from there when I have a large bill, like 14 K for a new shingles/roof in 2023. 

To account for this, Fidelity uses something called time-weighted rate of return. 

Maybe you were referring to tax deductible contributions to IRA’s/401(k)s ? 
in that case, it seems like they’d account for that by applying the same method Fidelity uses.

 

Yes, time weighted return. Not going to the charts and and saying "I'm up 50%!" when half of that dollar amount is contributions.   

[easilyscan 1,091]

7 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Yes, time weighted return. Not going to the charts and and saying "I'm up 50%!" when half of that dollar amount is contributions.   

Got it.

[Horseman 2,746]

1 hour ago, thegeneral said:

I don’t think I will put enough away to take advantage of this in a meaningful way but will look into it. Thanks.

Why not?  It's the key to early retirement.  

[Horseman 2,746]

31 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Got it.

We should also make a note about allocations.  Less risky allocations aren't expecting as much return as risky ones

[thegeneral 3,711]

6 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Why not?  It's the key to early retirement.  

You are saying beyond maxing out 401k with catchup and my personal IRA out additional money into the post tax option?

[easilyscan 1,091]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

We should also make a note about allocations.  Less risky allocations aren't expecting as much return as risky ones

Less ventured, less gained!

But seriously, I suppose we could include screen caps of the holdings in each of the accounts. 

[seafoam1 3,533]

1 minute ago, thegeneral said:

You are saying beyond maxing out 401k with catchup and my personal IRA out additional money into the post tax option?

you have no hope. 

[Horseman 2,746]

1 minute ago, thegeneral said:

You are saying beyond maxing out 401k with catchup and my personal IRA out additional money into the post tax option?

You can. Like $40,000 which rolls into Roth.  

[thegeneral 3,711]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

You can. Like $40,000 which rolls into Roth.  

I like my toys too much. My golf too much. My vacations too much. I feel like I already save enough

I do need to shift more to personal IRA that I can get at before retiring age though.