thegeneral 2,885 Posted January 27 1 minute ago, kilroy69 said: A pretty big over reaction to the fact that the chinese are literally ALWAYS going to be able to do things cheaper. All things AI was driving these prices out of whack so any negative news was going to cause a profit taking run. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 857 Posted January 27 1 minute ago, thegeneral said: All things AI was driving these prices out of whack so any negative news was going to cause a profit taking run. Agreed. Oddly enough, Apple is up a little over $7 right now. Figure it's an upgrade by some analyst, because I don't see any other news that would make it positive on a day like today. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,885 Posted January 27 12 minutes ago, easilyscan said: Agreed. Oddly enough, Apple is up a little over $7 right now. Figure it's an upgrade by some analyst, because I don't see any other news that would make it positive on a day like today. They had taken a beating last couple weeks so maybe just the money shifting into them. Their earnings are this week so Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,825 Posted January 27 55 minutes ago, thegeneral said: Woke up to seeing the news about this Chinese AI. Was not looking forward to checking But yeah outside of these heavy hitters in AI wasn’t terrible. If the Chinese AI stuff, DeepSeek, is overblown then will be a small blip. Turns out they use nvdia chips too so market movers being dumb Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted January 27 I guess I'll push a little chips in. Would rather see a 10%+ drop soon though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 857 Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Cdub100 said: Turns out they use nvdia chips too so market movers being dumb Sounds good to me. I added small amounts of FSLR-SOXL-NVDA & POWL during the day. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted January 27 Ha! Sold every bit of my TSM stock a couple days ago over 221. I guess I should buy it back now. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,885 Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: Turns out they use nvdia chips too so market movers being dumb I mean any company that has its shet together that sees a drop this steep in one day on uncertain news seems like some bit of over reaction. NVDA did have a bit of memeish quality to it though. Not so much in recent past but looking over past 18 months or so. Hopefully a blip for those getting in or who aren’t way up.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,825 Posted January 27 1 hour ago, thegeneral said: I mean any company that has its shet together that sees a drop this steep in one day on uncertain news seems like some bit of over reaction. NVDA did have a bit of memeish quality to it though. Not so much in recent past but looking over past 18 months or so. Hopefully a blip for those getting in or who aren’t way up.. I am 100% on the side of a correction is needed. The gains you talk about have been amazing and one reason I think we are in a massive bubble. Even with this it's probably going to keep going higher Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted January 27 1 hour ago, Horseman said: Ha! Sold every bit of my TSM stock a couple days ago over 221. I guess I should buy it back now. Or not. Chips are one thing Trump is going to tariff. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kilroy69 1,215 Posted January 28 Could this just be a sell off after the absurd runup with AI stocks? If you slapped AI on something you could just get money thrown at you. Like the .com era. This correction should have happened already. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 857 Posted January 28 Just now, kilroy69 said: Could this just be a sell off after the absurd runup with AI stocks? At one time if you slapped AI on it you could just get money thrown at you. Like the .com era. This correction should have happened already. You nailed it. This was especially true in the chip/semiconductor industry. Investors thought every chip stock would go ballistic. They did, for awhile. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Beaker15 233 Posted January 28 We are just in the beginning of the AI boom. Good entry point today on the sell-off. There will be volatility but we are nowhere near a bubble on tech stocks like NVDA. Forward PE of 32 is very reasonable for a very strong growth company. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,885 Posted January 28 Reading more about this DeepSeek. Google, Meta, Apple, etc engineers are going to be getting a well deserved ass kicking and severely humbled if these reports are accurate. This company of like 200 people just smoked these big tech places with this product, that everyone agrees is the future for pretty much everything. The danger for Nvidia is that people won’t need a million of their chips and that is all that company does. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 857 Posted January 28 1 hour ago, thegeneral said: The danger for Nvidia is that people won’t need a million of their chips and that is all that company does. It's definitely something investors have to consider. I just read an article that makes you wonder about the valuation. Nvidia's decline shaved $589 billion off the AI chipmaker's market cap, the largest single-day loss in stock market history. If you break that down, it means they lost the equivalent of 5.22 years of revenues in a single day, & it's 'still' selling at 31x sales. The article also touched on your concern.................... DeepSeek said one of its latest AI models cost just $5.6 million to train, OpenAI’s GPT-4 model costs more than $100 million. Maybe the market wasn't overreacting when it sold off shares to the tune of 24% today ? I'm not trying to influence anyone here, but things can change. Intel was the first stock I ever bought back in 1993 when I opened up a brokerage account at a local bank. 7 years later, they were the king of the world. Set to dominate the microprocessor industry forever. 25 years later, they're struggling to survive. Nothing more than food for thought from someone who loves talking stocks/markets. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,825 Posted January 28 11 hours ago, thegeneral said: Reading more about this DeepSeek. Google, Meta, Apple, etc engineers are going to be getting a well deserved ass kicking and severely humbled if these reports are accurate. This company of like 200 people just smoked these big tech places with this product, that everyone agrees is the future for pretty much everything. The danger for Nvidia is that people won’t need a million of their chips and that is all that company does. I find it interesting people believe any of these reports. China, and specifically this company, is lying. Lying about their servers, how they built it, and what it's being used for. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,885 Posted January 28 11 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: I find it interesting people believe any of these reports. China, and specifically this company, is lying. Lying about their servers, how they built it, and what it's being used for. The thing I was reading is they have their models open sourced to a degree and allowed other nerds to see benchmarks they met versus other similar resources. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,825 Posted January 28 13 minutes ago, thegeneral said: The thing I was reading is they have their models open sourced to a degree and allowed other nerds to see benchmarks they met versus other similar resources. I'm sure they hit those benchmarks. My point is China steals, they don't *in general* develop. I'm willing to bet The government of China helped out a lot with money, servers, power etc... and the company isn't reporting that. All I'm saying is everything should be taken with a grain of salt. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,885 Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: I'm sure they hit those benchmarks. My point is China steals, they don't *in general* develop. I'm willing to bet The government of China helped out a lot with money, servers, power etc... and the company isn't reporting that. All I'm saying is everything should be taken with a grain of salt. Of course. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Horseman 2,353 Posted January 28 12 hours ago, Beaker15 said: We are just in the beginning of the AI boom. Good entry point today on the sell-off. There will be volatility but we are nowhere near a bubble on tech stocks like NVDA. Forward PE of 32 is very reasonable for a very strong growth company. Yeah but the AI companies are all the same tech companies, AMZN, GOOG, AAPL that everyone likely already has a large exposure to. Its not like you can find a startup small company to invest in. The giants gobble them up before they can even get off the ground. NVDA is the one US company that's a bit different, but it's a small market of companies too, TSM, INTL, AMD. AMZN ending green for the day yesterday. I don't see this a a big sell off / must entry point, yet. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shadrap 220 Posted January 28 10 hours ago, easilyscan said: It's definitely something investors have to consider. I just read an article that makes you wonder about the valuation. Nvidia's decline shaved $589 billion off the AI chipmaker's market cap, the largest single-day loss in stock market history. If you break that down, it means they lost the equivalent of 5.22 years of revenues in a single day, & it's 'still' selling at 31x sales. The article also touched on your concern.................... DeepSeek said one of its latest AI models cost just $5.6 million to train, OpenAI’s GPT-4 model costs more than $100 million. Maybe the market wasn't overreacting when it sold off shares to the tune of 24% today ? I'm not trying to influence anyone here, but things can change. Intel was the first stock I ever bought back in 1993 when I opened up a brokerage account at a local bank. 7 years later, they were the king of the world. Set to dominate the microprocessor industry forever. 25 years later, they're struggling to survive. Nothing more than food for thought from someone who loves talking stocks/markets. bought Intel a year ago. way down for the year. any idea about why they are having problems?? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Alias Detective 1,388 Posted January 28 51 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: I find it interesting people believe any of these reports. China, and specifically this company, is lying. Lying about their servers, how they built it, and what it's being used for. Smart money bought Nvidia at a 20% discount. :raiseshand: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,825 Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Alias Detective said: Smart money bought Nvidia at a 20% discount. :raiseshand: I bought yesterday as well. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,885 Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: 12 minutes ago, Alias Detective said: Smart money bought Nvidia at a 20% discount. :raiseshand: I bought yesterday as well Never sold !diamond hands! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,885 Posted January 28 There’s AAPL doing the heavy lifting for me last couple days. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,825 Posted January 28 The CEO of Scale AI said that DeepSeek reportedly has up to 50,000 Nvidia, $NVDA, H100s they don’t report: https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1883946417133383797 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,885 Posted January 28 15 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: The CEO of Scale AI said that DeepSeek reportedly has up to 50,000 Nvidia, $NVDA, H100s they don’t report: https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1883946417133383797 That would help Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,557 Posted January 28 It probably is a good time to get into NVDA. They got caught up in the sell-off, but guess what chips DeepSeek used? It's like selling the picks and shovels provider because someone found a new vein of gold somewhere. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 857 Posted January 28 4 hours ago, Cdub100 said: I'm sure they hit those benchmarks. My point is China steals, they don't *in general* develop. I'm willing to bet The government of China helped out a lot with money, servers, power etc... and the company isn't reporting that. All I'm saying is everything should be taken with a grain of salt. Not defending the **inks, but we do the same thing. We (taxpayers) made a huge investment in Intel to build large fabs. https://www.google.com/search?q=Did+the+US+government+make+a+investment+in+Intel&client=safari&sca_esv=556e0fb3fe8dd81f&sxsrf=AHTn8zp-Ob4ewSJbBX7foAe0QEbz-J4ClA%3A1738094672421&source=hp&ei=UDiZZ5WnF-fK0PEPl56E0AU&iflsig=ACkRmUkAAAAAZ5lGYFxZf-ytEJED55pXedQ6Wsm4feiQ&ved=0ahUKEwiVj6Kcm5mLAxVnJTQIHRcPAVoQ4dUDCBk&uact=5&oq=Did+the+US+government+make+a+investment+in+Intel&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6IjBEaWQgdGhlIFVTIGdvdmVybm1lbnQgbWFrZSBhIGludmVzdG1lbnQgaW4gSW50ZWwyBxAhGKABGAoyBxAhGKABGAoyBxAhGKABGAoyBxAhGKABGApIl2dQhi9YuGZwA3gAkAEFmAH6AaABvRqqAQYzLjIxLjG4AQPIAQD4AQGYAhGgApYOqAIKwgIHECMYJxjqAsICBxAuGCcY6gLCAgQQIxgnwgIOEC4YgAQYxwEYjgUYrwHCAgsQLhiABBixAxiDAcICCxAAGIAEGLEDGIMBwgIOEAAYgAQYsQMYgwEYigXCAgUQABiABMICERAuGIAEGLEDGNEDGIMBGMcBwgILEC4YgAQY0QMYxwHCAgYQABgWGB7CAgsQABiABBiGAxiKBcICCBAAGIAEGKIEwgIFEAAY7wXCAgUQIRirApgDCvEFncDv91nECuuSBwU2LjkuMqAHvbgB&sclient=gws-wiz Shortly after, Intel eliminated their dividend and announced they were laying off 15% of their employees. What a way to say......... thanks! So yeah, I take anything I hear/read with a large grain of salt, & that includes my own government. Do you know there's people out there who believe the Social Security trust fund contains real assets ? https://www.imagebam.com/view/MEZ9Z1I Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 857 Posted January 28 4 hours ago, shadrap said: bought Intel a year ago. way down for the year. any idea about why they are having problems?? Their problems started when the movement away from desktop computers, & towards smart phones began. They fell behind, and haven't been able to catch up. They also tried to go up against Nvidia in the gaming market and failed. It was easy for them to be dominant in the 90s as the average desktop PC cost around 2K & 25% of that was for the processor alone. At one point in the 2000's, they supplied Apple desktop chips. They lost that some years ago. That doesn't necessarily mean they couldn't turn the business around, but a 20 year return of 45.79% or 1.90% annualized, says they've been floundering for a long time. Good luck Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 857 Posted January 28 4 hours ago, thegeneral said: There’s AAPL doing the heavy lifting for me last couple days. Very happy with that. Let's hope it continues when they release earnings day after tomorrow. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,885 Posted January 28 6 minutes ago, easilyscan said: Very happy with that. Let's hope it continues when they release earnings day after tomorrow. Yep. With this move up to get back to close to even on year hopefully no big fireworks…unless it’s up Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,825 Posted January 28 51 minutes ago, easilyscan said: Not defending the **inks, but we do the same thing. We (taxpayers) made a huge investment in Intel to build large fabs. https://www.google.com/search?q=Did+the+US+government+make+a+investment+in+Intel&client=safari&sca_esv=556e0fb3fe8dd81f&sxsrf=AHTn8zp-Ob4ewSJbBX7foAe0QEbz-J4ClA%3A1738094672421&source=hp&ei=UDiZZ5WnF-fK0PEPl56E0AU&iflsig=ACkRmUkAAAAAZ5lGYFxZf-ytEJED55pXedQ6Wsm4feiQ&ved=0ahUKEwiVj6Kcm5mLAxVnJTQIHRcPAVoQ4dUDCBk&uact=5&oq=Did+the+US+government+make+a+investment+in+Intel&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6IjBEaWQgdGhlIFVTIGdvdmVybm1lbnQgbWFrZSBhIGludmVzdG1lbnQgaW4gSW50ZWwyBxAhGKABGAoyBxAhGKABGAoyBxAhGKABGAoyBxAhGKABGApIl2dQhi9YuGZwA3gAkAEFmAH6AaABvRqqAQYzLjIxLjG4AQPIAQD4AQGYAhGgApYOqAIKwgIHECMYJxjqAsICBxAuGCcY6gLCAgQQIxgnwgIOEC4YgAQYxwEYjgUYrwHCAgsQLhiABBixAxiDAcICCxAAGIAEGLEDGIMBwgIOEAAYgAQYsQMYgwEYigXCAgUQABiABMICERAuGIAEGLEDGNEDGIMBGMcBwgILEC4YgAQY0QMYxwHCAgYQABgWGB7CAgsQABiABBiGAxiKBcICCBAAGIAEGKIEwgIFEAAY7wXCAgUQIRirApgDCvEFncDv91nECuuSBwU2LjkuMqAHvbgB&sclient=gws-wiz Shortly after, Intel eliminated their dividend and announced they were laying off 15% of their employees. What a way to say......... thanks! So yeah, I take anything I hear/read with a large grain of salt, & that includes my own government. Do you know there's people out there who believe the Social Security trust fund contains real assets ? https://www.imagebam.com/view/MEZ9Z1I I absolutely agree. Our government is the best in the world when it comes to lying. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,557 Posted January 29 NVDA is a bit of an interesting case. On one hand it's priced for exceptional growth, so any threat to that should be taken seriously, but I would make a case that the DeepSeek situation is a neutral and maybe even good thing for NVDA. The thesis is that DeepSeek has made training AI more efficient. Therefore, less high powered chips will be necessary. For our purposes, let's assume they aren't lying about the results, and let's ignore the fact that they trained their AI using models that were previously trained from large compute clusters, so there is a question on if that is always possible. If training AI models becomes more efficient, I would propose that it would lead to larger demand in chips not less. A large barrier to entry for AI development is the up front cost of compute clusters. Now most companies solve this by renting computing clusters from the big players, but if compute power becomes more efficient, more companies will start to invest in their own clusters as the cost to buy and setup infrastructure for 10,000 chips might be a reasonable ROI vs the same costs for 100,000 chips. It's a pretty standard economic phenomenon. Making something more efficient doesn't lower demand. It raises it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,885 Posted January 29 54 minutes ago, nobody said: NVDA is a bit of an interesting case. On one hand it's priced for exceptional growth, so any threat to that should be taken seriously, but I would make a case that the DeepSeek situation is a neutral and maybe even good thing for NVDA. The thesis is that DeepSeek has made training AI more efficient. Therefore, less high powered chips will be necessary. For our purposes, let's assume they aren't lying about the results, and let's ignore the fact that they trained their AI using models that were previously trained from large compute clusters, so there is a question on if that is always possible. If training AI models becomes more efficient, I would propose that it would lead to larger demand in chips not less. A large barrier to entry for AI development is the up front cost of compute clusters. Now most companies solve this by renting computing clusters from the big players, but if compute power becomes more efficient, more companies will start to invest in their own clusters as the cost to buy and setup infrastructure for 10,000 chips might be a reasonable ROI vs the same costs for 100,000 chips. It's a pretty standard economic phenomenon. Making something more efficient doesn't lower demand. It raises it. Jevons Paradox. We will see. Lots of factors at play, number one will be how much “fuzzy numbers” this DeepSeek is running with. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,825 Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, thegeneral said: Jevons Paradox. We will see. Lots of factors at play, number one will be how much “fuzzy numbers” this DeepSeek is running with. This right here. We know they've already lied. We also know they used chat GPT to help train deep seek. Energy creation is the key. China is building WAY more nuclear plants than the US. We need to step up our game. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 857 Posted January 29 MSFT & Tesla report after the close. Apple tomorrow. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thegeneral 2,885 Posted January 29 16 minutes ago, easilyscan said: MSFT & Tesla report after the close. Apple tomorrow. No whammies! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nobody 2,557 Posted January 29 Apple will go down. It almost always does. They'll beat on revenue and profit, but someone will find a 0.2% decline in sales in China or something, and it'll take the stock down 2-5%. I'm sure there will be words about how China is subsidizing Chinese made phones over Apple as well. And then, of course, the stock will make up what they lose and then some over the quarter. The only time they don't go down on earnings is when they announce huge buy backs and also beat on the top and bottom line like they always do. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
easilyscan 857 Posted January 30 5 hours ago, thegeneral said: No whammies! Microsoft Corporation Closed 442.33 -4.87 (-1.09%) After hours 421.98 -20.35 (-4.60%) Tesla, Inc. Closed 389.10 -8.99 (-2.26%) After hours 406.39 +17.29 (+4.44%) One whammie Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
