Stock Market bubble - will crash

[seafoam1 2,950]

1 hour ago, Horseman said:

Are you subtracting your contributions when calculation your percentages?  Whats your expense ratio?  

That dude doesn't focking know shlt. He was one of the libtards whining ad nauseum about the market until he got the idea to pretend he's rich and making millions. He's like the rest of the broke liberals who pulled their 10s of dollars out of the markets months back and won't admit they are dopes. 

[Horseman 2,438]

On 6/5/2025 at 6:13 PM, seafoam1 said:

That dude doesn't focking know shlt. He was one of the libtards whining ad nauseum about the market until he got the idea to pretend he's rich and making millions. He's like the rest of the broke liberals who pulled their 10s of dollars out of the markets months back and won't admit they are dopes. 

The non-respose suggests he's actually worse off than he realizes and he's paying more than he should for it.   Lol. 

[nobody 2,657]

On 6/5/2025 at 12:54 PM, easilyscan said:

One Day Late!

Own 288 shares of Tesla with a basis of $15.14

 

About 1.5 months ago I thought it was over valued, so I bought Graniteshares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSDD)

Got my arse handed to me as Tesla rallied immediately after. Sold them at a loss about a month ago.

Now I thought Tesla was even more overvalued. Since this is a taxable account, and I realized a loss on TSDD, I'd have to wait 31 days to buy them back, or it would be a wash sale violation.

 

So I put a reminder in my phone to consider buying again 31 days later.  That day just happened to be today.

As I type, TSLA is down about $46.00 (13%) & TSDD is 30.00 +6.63 +(28.42%) Dayum

 

Broadcom reports after the bell. This is probably the most important chip stock next to Nvidia.

You'll get another chance.  I'm out of the tsla investing business.  I boned out after I got green after a long time in the red... And feel fortunate to have done so.  

One thing I learned during that time is Elon will 100% manipulate that stock price, or water down shares, or pull some chicanery if he wants to add to his pile of gold for some reason.  That means when he needs money, he'll manipulate it up, but he'll also leave you hanging out to dry if it suits him.

Point being you just have to wait for his next yacht payment or something and it'll be back sky high magically.

[easilyscan 915]

On 6/7/2025 at 12:59 AM, nobody said:

You'll get another chance.  I'm out of the tsla investing business.  I boned out after I got green after a long time in the red... And feel fortunate to have done so.  

One thing I learned during that time is Elon will 100% manipulate that stock price, or water down shares, or pull some chicanery if he wants to add to his pile of gold for some reason.  That means when he needs money, he'll manipulate it up, but he'll also leave you hanging out to dry if it suits him.

Point being you just have to wait for his next yacht payment or something and it'll be back sky high magically.

I got my chance Friday. 400 shares (TSDD) @ $26.77 got lucky as that was close to the low of the day & it closed at $27.86

I don't know that it's Elon manipulating the stock price. I think investors are just such fanboys, that they hold onto it like a rusty vice grip.

 

Look at the bottom line, the most important fundamental. 

YOY (EPS) over the past 5 quarters. 

-44%

-46%

+17%

-74%

-71%

In spite of those figures, shares are currently selling at 171x trailing eps. Investors are putting a tremendous amount of hope into the Robo taxi business. Me, not so much.

I don't dislike Elon, & still think that long-term (assuming the entire world doesn't crater under its massive debt) Tesla will be fine. If it wasn't for the fact that the shares are held in a taxable account & the capital gains would severely impact my health insurance premiums, I'd sell all the shares now, pay the capital gains tax, & wait for a more opportune time to reestablish a position. 

 

[nobody 2,657]

Musk is brilliant, but he also believes that the world is a simulation.  If that's the case, he will see all of us as NPCs that he can use and dispose of as he sees fit to advance any agenda he wants.  

You can't trust him to do anything outside of what's in his own best interest.  You just have to hope his best interest aligns with yours.  In the case of tsla stock, he'll happily dilute your shares and give himself more anytime he wants.

[easilyscan 915]

3 hours ago, nobody said:

Musk is brilliant, but he also believes that the world is a simulation.  If that's the case, he will see all of us as NPCs that he can use and dispose of as he sees fit to advance any agenda he wants.  

You can't trust him to do anything outside of what's in his own best interest.  You just have to hope his best interest aligns with yours.  In the case of tsla stock, he'll happily dilute your shares and give himself more anytime he wants.

That last paragraph is accurate, but it could describe 100's of CEOs. 

[nobody 2,657]

But musk is the only one with a cult following to get the shareholder/board votes to do it.  And most CEOs know that a tanking share value similar to what musk got away with in q4 2022 when he sold his shares before reporting would be ammo to get him ousted.  Elon faces no such risk.

in the end, you can make money, but I don't want to be in business with the dude.

 

[easilyscan 915]

18 minutes ago, nobody said:

But musk is the only one with a cult following to get the shareholder/board votes to do it.  And most CEOs know that a tanking share value similar to what musk got away with in q4 2022 when he sold his shares before reporting would be ammo to get him ousted.  Elon faces no such risk.

in the end, you can make money, but I don't want to be in business with the dude.

 

I hear ya. Part of the problem is that institutions usually own the vast majority of outstanding shares & have the votes required to oust someone, but in all but the most extreme cases, choose to look the other way ?

I know, that doesn't make any sense. It would be in their best interest to get rid of poor management, which in turn would make their funds and ETFs look better, but they don't? 

 

Another problem is the SEC. They got no backbone. If Musk did something illegal, they should've come down on him, but they didn't because corruption is everywhere. They aren't like those agents on the Wolf of Wall Street. 

I've been a somewhat active investor since the mid-90s & Elon Musk isn't the 1st to get away with things like that, and he won't be the last.

 

Lastly, and I hate to say this because I still make investing mistakes, but a lot of the shareholders out there seem to be at least slightly developmentally disabled.

Kraft & Heinz merged in 2015. It's been an absolute disaster. Since Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway were involved, long-suffering shareholders insist on holding, because if those 2 aren't selling, good times must lie ahead. There's a reason they aren't selling. Shortly before the merger took place, Buffett exercised special warrants only available to him, giving him the right to purchase 46.2 million shares for about $462,000, or about one penny each. He also owns enough preferred shares to pay him dividends of $720 million per year.

I've posted that information on the yahoo comment section around 5 times over the past 2 years. These morons react by giving me thumbs down and/or calling me a liar.

I say fock em if they're too lazy/stupid to look up the information themselves.

Like PT Barnum allegedly said, "there's a sucker born every minute"

 

 

 

[easilyscan 915]

If Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is up again Monday, I'm buying out of the money puts.

 

[Cdub100 3,894]

14 hours ago, easilyscan said:

If Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is up again Monday, I'm buying out of the money puts.

 

I got in on the IPO. I knew circle would be huge. They could become bigger than any other finance company. 

With usdc they practically print their own money and everyone will use it. 

It's better than money in the bank.

[easilyscan 915]

1 hour ago, Cdub100 said:

I got in on the IPO. I knew circle would be huge. They could become bigger than any other finance company. 

With usdc they practically print their own money and everyone will use it. 

It's better than money in the bank.

I thought I was a big enough whale at Fidelity to get in on IPOs like that, guess I was wrong. Do you have to hold it for a certain period of time ?

[Cdub100 3,894]

1 hour ago, easilyscan said:

I thought I was a big enough whale at Fidelity to get in on IPOs like that, guess I was wrong. Do you have to hold it for a certain period of time ?

I got them on Robinhood. I think there's something about holding them for a month, but I think I can technically sell them whenever. 

[easilyscan 915]

On 6/21/2025 at 5:27 PM, Cdub100 said:

I got them on Robinhood. I think there's something about holding them for a month, but I think I can technically sell them whenever. 

Chickened out on buying put options for circle group. Not stepping in front of that train. Bought more TSDD

[easilyscan 915]

On 6/23/2025 at 1:26 PM, easilyscan said:

Chickened out on buying put options for circle group. Not stepping in front of that train. Bought more TSDD

Should have stepped in front of the train!

No guts, no glory. Had the perfect idea to step in front of that bloated pig & I chickened out

$227.78

13.54%

-35.67 Today

[WhiteWonder 2,723]

On 6/5/2025 at 4:44 PM, Horseman said:

Are you subtracting your contributions when calculation your percentages?  Whats your expense ratio?  

 

On 6/6/2025 at 7:23 PM, Horseman said:

The non-respose suggests he's actually worse off than he realizes and he's paying more than he should for it.   Lol. 

 To be fair he said he was talking about a gambling trading account and didn't seem to indicate he was investing in any type of managed funds. So like my trading accounts, his expense ratio could be nothing.  And I may have misunderstood you but I'm also not sure what contributions he would be subtracting from such an account.

Then again he is probably lying about even having a gambling/trading account picking stocks  

[JuneJuly 194]

37 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

 

 To be fair he said he was talking about a gambling trading account and didn't seem to indicate he was investing in any type of managed funds. So like my trading accounts, his expense ratio could be nothing.  And I may have misunderstood you but I'm also not sure what contributions he would be subtracting from such an account.

Then again he is probably lying about even having a gambling/trading account picking stocks  

Bold

On 6/5/2025 at 11:00 AM, thegeneral said:

One month later:

Main account is just a tick below zero YTD, like a quarter percent hopefully even after mutual funds update tonight.

Old man account is in the green at 1.6%

Gambling account dragging asss at -12%

And again just recently he said markets are flat for the year.  The S&P is near 4% and a market high. If your account isn't up 5-6% you are an investing moron. Not including contributions.  6% is a good clip for 6 months that I'll take all day long and twice on Sundays.  Market is humming along like it always does.  

 

[JuneJuly 194]

I'll also add that interst rates haven't budged, AT ALL.  Love it for a guaranteed 4%.  The market is currently a money printing machine for people who have money and know what they're doing.  

[Ron_Artest 1,358]

6 minutes ago, JuneJuly said:

I'll also add that interst rates haven't budged, AT ALL.  Love it for a guaranteed 4%.  The market is currently a money printing machine for people who have money and know what they're doing.  

RIP horseman

[WhiteWonder 2,723]

46 minutes ago, JuneJuly said:

Bold 

 

Umm sure.
 

But your comments to him about contributions and expense ratios were quoting a post of his that seemed to be a continuation of a discussion on his gambling/trading account. Perhaps he had gone back to talking about a retirement account and like I said, probably lying about his trading account performance anyway. 

oh well not a big deal 

[thegeneral 3,132]

28 minutes ago, JuneJuly said:

I'll also add that interst rates haven't budged, AT ALL.  Love it for a guaranteed 4%.  The market is currently a money printing machine for people who have money and know what they're doing.  

How did you get banned this time?!?