Steelers fan, here. Does anyone here think Trubisky will succeed?

[cavern 70]

I must admit, with other, bigger, names seemingly available, I was disappointed when I heard this news a while back.   However, some have told me they think it will be a good fit, etc.  I mean, it's better than Rudolph, and Ben has not been great for a while - so maybe this will be better....I want to believe.  To tie it back to fantasy: he's available in my 2 qb keeper league draft....worth a pick?

Tia for any opinions 

[TBayXXXVII 2,683]

No, I don't think he will, but it's fine the for Steelers to use him as a stop gap until next years' draft.  I haven't looked at their schedule, but if they were able to win what, 9 games last year... they should be able to repeat that.

From a fantasy perspective, every QB in a 2QB league is worth a pick.  If you have a 10-team league, you're starting 20 QB's every week and people usually have a backup for injuries and bye's, so at least 30 should be drafted.  In a 12-team league, there's probably not only every QB drafted, but also a half dozen back-ups.  I'd be 'ok', with Trubisky as my QB2 because he'll probably run for about 300 yards and possibly 3 (maybe even 4), TD's, but I'd rather have him as a QB3.

[weepaws 3,434]

Ben had 33 tds in 2020 that’s pretty good.  I think he’s no better then a qb2 , now is he the best option in your league? 

He’s had some pretty good coaching with the Bills , so I think he’s worthy of a qb2 pick up. 

[polecatt 489]

I think Trubisky may surprise some people this season.

Let's be honest, the Bears are about the worst place a young QB can go to develop, and Trubisky only played one season in college in a spread offense.

On the flipside, the Steelers are an excellent place for a QB. He had a season in Buffalo where he got to sit and learn, watch an excellent QB, etc.

I'm not saying he's gonna turn into Peyton Manning, but I think he'll be better than most expect.

[weepaws 3,434]

Do you think he can avg 20 plus ff points per game?that would put him in the very low qb1 area, I don’t think he’s good enough to get there, and I don’t think the Steelers coaching staff is either.  

 

[Ray_T 798]

before we get into the fantasy points, lets define success.  

If I'm a GM success means making the playoffs (or competing to a level where you are very close)

I agree Chicago was a terrible place for a rookie QB to land.    Pittsburgh is better, but that O line is still awful so its not ideal.

he had a year in a good system in Buffalo watching one of the best in the game play.   its possible that he tapped into some of that.  he now knows how a pro offense is supposed to operate and that may have helped the kid.

so my answer is.... its possible he may find success.

but for me, this is a feast or famine move.   either he lights it up, or he doesnt.   if he does, the Steelers have a QB for many years and they didnt really have to pay to get him.

if he doesnt, the Steelers likely have a top draft pick in a draft that is supposed to be deep at the QB position.

so either way, its likely a win.

I dont see any downside in giving the kid a shot.

[Ray_T 798]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

In a 12-team league, there's probably not only every QB drafted, but also a half dozen back-ups.  I'd be 'ok', with Trubisky as my QB2 because he'll probably run for about 300 yards and possibly 3 (maybe even 4), TD's, but I'd rather have him as a QB3.

in a 2 QB league hes a QB3 for sure until he proves hes better.

you dont draft him as a QB2 unless you absolutely have to.  in a 12 team league hes borderline.   but in a 2 QB league you dont wanna be drafting one of your starting QB's late in the draft.  its usually a good way to lose in that format.   so if hes your QB2, its super risky.

[weepaws 3,434]

7 hours ago, cavern said:

I must admit, with other, bigger, names seemingly available, I was disappointed when I heard this news a while back.   However, some have told me they think it will be a good fit, etc.  I mean, it's better than Rudolph, and Ben has not been great for a while - so maybe this will be better....I want to believe.  To tie it back to fantasy: he's available in my 2 qb keeper league draft....worth a pick?

Tia for any opinions 

The OP said he’s available in his two Qb league, so it’s a keeper, so depending who else is available, I say yes OP he’s worth a pick up.  

I think you’re looking at a Qb that’s going to be no better then a qb2 , but he does have some really good talent around him.  Ben avg 17 points per game last season  with basically a left arm,and he’s right handed.  

So I think he can better that.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,683]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

in a 2 QB league hes a QB3 for sure until he proves hes better.

you dont draft him as a QB2 unless you absolutely have to.  in a 12 team league hes borderline.   but in a 2 QB league you dont wanna be drafting one of your starting QB's late in the draft.  its usually a good way to lose in that format.   so if hes your QB2, its super risky.

I don't know, I can see a low end QB2 as perfectly reasonable.  Yeah, he wasn't productive his rookie year, but did anyone start any rookie QB from this past year (on purpose), in 2 QB leagues?  Probably not.  But in 2018, in terms of fantasy, he ranked 15th in total points, 26th in 2019, and 27th in 2020.  I think being in Pittsburgh with a legit running game and solid WR's, I don't think 20th is out of the realm of possibility.  I mean, I could probably think of 10 teams who's QB I wouldn't want to start... NYG, WAS, ATL, CAR, DET, CHI, SEA, NYJ, HOU, & JAX.  I'd rank Trubisky over all of their QB's.  That puts him at 22... back end QB2.  That's not even counting guys like Tua and Jones whom I don't trust either.   Nor does it count the mess in Cleveland.

[Emerson's Boozers 1]

Just based on the fact that the Chicago Bears have no idea how to evaluate quarterback talent, I would have to say yes.

[jrokh 620]

9 hours ago, cavern said:

I must admit, with other, bigger, names seemingly available, I was disappointed when I heard this news a while back.   However, some have told me they think it will be a good fit, etc.  I mean, it's better than Rudolph, and Ben has not been great for a while - so maybe this will be better....I want to believe.  To tie it back to fantasy: he's available in my 2 qb keeper league draft....worth a pick?

Tia for any opinions 

Look to the draft. If they trade up or draft a QB in the first round the answer is unlikely. If not then he will get a true shot.  Based on his contract I don’t see him sticking around long term. For fantasy yeah he should be a solid mid tier QB2.

[IGotWorms 4,063]

Worth taking a shot on him. Career stats and win-loss record are actually pretty decent. Looked like garbage in 2020 but maybe he just needed a change of scenery

[Ray_T 798]

I looked at two scouting reports in his draft year.  one report cited that hes a bit risky because he was only a one year starter and he needed experience.   Both also said he can sometimes panic a bit when under pressure.

The Bears (in my opinion) may have been better served to let him sit a year before throwing him into the fire (so to speak).   in that timeframe, they could have drafted O linemen and/or receivers to improve his chances of doing something good.

That said, the scouting report was pretty good.   accurate ball thrower, able to fit the ball into tight windows, good at going through his reads/progressions.   The report was actually better than the top prospects in this years draft.    so if these are your options, maybe the Steelers felt a second chance for this guy is better than paying to move up in the draft and get someone who may actually be inferior.

Either way, I dont think giving him another shot is actually a bad move.

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I mean, I could probably think of 10 teams who's QB I wouldn't want to start... NYG, WAS, ATL, CAR, DET, CHI, SEA, NYJ, HOU, & JAX.  I'd rank Trubisky over all of their QB's. 

from this perspective, you may be onto something.   while I dont agree on all of the teams (specifically Jaxonville-I think Lawrence performs better under his new coach)

but I get your point.

Keep in mind,  There are a lot of unknowns there and I'm treating him as if hes a rookie.  I'm writing off the Chicago experience as a bad experience with a bad team.

He should improve on that as he does have more talent- if The bears havnt already ruined him.

Thats the thing.   upside of a more talented team vs potential downside if the Bears have ruined him as a player.

I figure the two roughly offset.   for me hes on the cusp of QB2 and QB3.     and there is not a whole lot of  difference between a high end QB3 and a low end QB2.

because of the risk, I draft him as a QB3 if hes available.   I may change my mind once I see training camp.  if it looks like the game has slowed down for him then I think there could be significant reward for drafting a guy like him.

in 2 QB leagues you are almost always rewarded for overvaluing the QB position because QB's can make up 40-50% of your overall scoring in most formats.   Thats significant.  Especially if you can get consistent production at the position.   so drafting that second QB a round early (or paying a couple bucks extra to get a high end QB2) isnt a bad move in a league like this.

in a standard league with one QB it may be a recipe for disaster.  but 2 QB leagues are different.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,683]

15 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I looked at two scouting reports in his draft year.  one report cited that hes a bit risky because he was only a one year starter and he needed experience.   Both also said he can sometimes panic a bit when under pressure.

The Bears (in my opinion) may have been better served to let him sit a year before throwing him into the fire (so to speak).   in that timeframe, they could have drafted O linemen and/or receivers to improve his chances of doing something good.

That said, the scouting report was pretty good.   accurate ball thrower, able to fit the ball into tight windows, good at going through his reads/progressions.   The report was actually better than the top prospects in this years draft.    so if these are your options, maybe the Steelers felt a second chance for this guy is better than paying to move up in the draft and get someone who may actually be inferior.

Either way, I dont think giving him another shot is actually a bad move.

from this perspective, you may be onto something.   while I dont agree on all of the teams (specifically Jaxonville-I think Lawrence performs better under his new coach)

but I get your point.

Keep in mind,  There are a lot of unknowns there and I'm treating him as if hes a rookie.  I'm writing off the Chicago experience as a bad experience with a bad team.

He should improve on that as he does have more talent- if The bears havnt already ruined him.

Thats the thing.   upside of a more talented team vs potential downside if the Bears have ruined him as a player.

I figure the two roughly offset.   for me hes on the cusp of QB2 and QB3.     and there is not a whole lot of  difference between a high end QB3 and a low end QB2.

because of the risk, I draft him as a QB3 if hes available.   I may change my mind once I see training camp.  if it looks like the game has slowed down for him then I think there could be significant reward for drafting a guy like him.

in 2 QB leagues you are almost always rewarded for overvaluing the QB position because QB's can make up 40-50% of your overall scoring in most formats.   Thats significant.  Especially if you can get consistent production at the position.   so drafting that second QB a round early (or paying a couple bucks extra to get a high end QB2) isnt a bad move in a league like this.

in a standard league with one QB it may be a recipe for disaster.  but 2 QB leagues are different.

 

I get ya.  You're siding on more of the glass half empty side, a little skeptical of the upside based on the past.  He had limited time in college, a rough go at it in Chicago, and sat all of last year.  I'm not saying I blame you, it's certainly a fair way to approach him.  I'm more of a glass half (quarter), full on him.  I don't think he'll be anything of note in terms of a steal in the draft.  I think that if I draft him as a back end QB2/high end QB3, his ceiling is high end QB2... like QB15.

In Pittsburgh he'll have a solid supporting cast at RB (Harris), TE (Freiermuth), and WR's (Johnson & Claypool).  Any QB going to a team with weapons like that, should be able to produce.  From what I've read about their OLine was that it was suspect but hard to truly get a gauge on because of Roethlisberger.  Even if their line is league average, they may be able to improve that here in the offseason (they may have already, I just don't follow PIT that closely).

When it comes to fantasy and a QB2, I usually either go big with QB's if I don't like the landscape of other players and take both QB's in the first 7 rounds and get my backup in the double digits or jump in early with my #1 target a high end TE and pound RB's and WR's for many rounds before taking my QB2 just before the well dries up.  In the first scenario, Trubisky would be my QB3 (or even QB4), as I will not take him that early.  In scenario 2, I'd be 'ok' with him as my QB2 because I just want someone who'll go out and probably throw for 250 and a score every week and probably run for 25 or so.  I'll be ok with 16+ points and be pleased with the occasional rushing TD to push him over the 20 point mark.  If he turns out to be a 275/1.5 TD guy, even better!  If he's around 200/0.75 TD guy, then he better be rushing for 50 and a score every week or he'll find himself on the bench.

[Ray_T 798]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I get ya.  You're siding on more of the glass half empty side, a little skeptical of the upside based on the past.  He had limited time in college, a rough go at it in Chicago, and sat all of last year.  I'm not saying I blame you, it's certainly a fair way to approach him.  I'm more of a glass half (quarter), full on him.  I don't think he'll be anything of note in terms of a steal in the draft.  I think that if I draft him as a back end QB2/high end QB3, his ceiling is high end QB2... like QB15.

In Pittsburgh he'll have a solid supporting cast at RB (Harris), TE (Freiermuth), and WR's (Johnson & Claypool).  Any QB going to a team with weapons like that, should be able to produce.  From what I've read about their OLine was that it was suspect but hard to truly get a gauge on because of Roethlisberger.  Even if their line is league average, they may be able to improve that here in the offseason (they may have already, I just don't follow PIT that closely).

When it comes to fantasy and a QB2, I usually either go big with QB's if I don't like the landscape of other players and take both QB's in the first 7 rounds and get my backup in the double digits or jump in early with my #1 target a high end TE and pound RB's and WR's for many rounds before taking my QB2 just before the well dries up.  In the first scenario, Trubisky would be my QB3 (or even QB4), as I will not take him that early.  In scenario 2, I'd be 'ok' with him as my QB2 because I just want someone who'll go out and probably throw for 250 and a score every week and probably run for 25 or so.  I'll be ok with 16+ points and be pleased with the occasional rushing TD to push him over the 20 point mark.  If he turns out to be a 275/1.5 TD guy, even better!  If he's around 200/0.75 TD guy, then he better be rushing for 50 and a score every week or he'll find himself on the bench.

Reasonable numbers.  and yeah, if he plays and doesnt get benched thats probably in the range of where he will be.

I have him currently on the cusp of QB2 and QB3 in my 12 team league where you start 2 QB.

that said, I'm still reserving judgement until I see some exhibition games.    Usually in scenarios like this I start a bit more as a glass half empty guy and gradually warm up to the player over the pre season if the reports on him are good.

in the end we may end up valuing him pretty close to the same by draft day (assuming draft day is shortly before the regular season starts)

I dont deny the talent in Pittsburgh.    and the subpar line concerns me a bit more than the possibility Chicago could have ruined the kid.    if you google the scouting reports, he does have all the tools in the toolbox that you need to be a very good QB.   the kid needs some experience and maybe some good coaching to help him put it all together.  he hasnt had the good coaching (not while a starter anyhow) but sitting on the bench in Buffalo may have helped the kid a fair bit.   but its a bit of a wildcard in terms of where he is at today.

I agree, it is unlikely he has QB1 upside for this year anyhow.  but I think if he does perform as a high end QB2 he likely gets another year in Pittsburgh to see if he can progress further.

if he performs as a low end QB2 (or worse) hes likely replaced in the draft next year.     

[DocNiner 71]

Granted being in Chicago wasn't the best scenario for him to succeed so he humbled himself and went to Buffalo.to be a backup to Josh Allen and kind of get his career in perspective. It was a godsend when Pittsburgh called him and it seems he has a pretty good chance to be the starter week 1. Until, with the 20th pick the Steelers pick area Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett. Since Pickett will now be in house what does this mean for Trubisky? He has weapons to be successful but somehow I have a gut feeling he's going to falter and give way to the rookie by mid-season. I'd this scenario likely? Maybe. Is it possible? Definitely. It'll depends on if the Steelers draft Pickett because Willis will not be there come pick 20. If they don't draft Pickett I could see Trubisky with average success. As I said I just have a gut feeling he's not gonna take them to a superbowl and most of the time I trust my gut. 

[Ray_T 798]

4 hours ago, DocNiner said:

Granted being in Chicago wasn't the best scenario for him to succeed so he humbled himself and went to Buffalo.to be a backup to Josh Allen and kind of get his career in perspective. It was a godsend when Pittsburgh called him and it seems he has a pretty good chance to be the starter week 1. Until, with the 20th pick the Steelers pick area Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett. Since Pickett will now be in house what does this mean for Trubisky? He has weapons to be successful but somehow I have a gut feeling he's going to falter and give way to the rookie by mid-season. I'd this scenario likely? Maybe. Is it possible? Definitely. It'll depends on if the Steelers draft Pickett because Willis will not be there come pick 20. If they don't draft Pickett I could see Trubisky with average success. As I said I just have a gut feeling he's not gonna take them to a superbowl and most of the time I trust my gut. 

I dont know that Pickett will fall that far in the draft.   Wishful thinking if you are a Steelers fan.

he should go in the first half of round 1.    and (in theory) Pickett should be the only QB to do so. 

That said... stranger things have happened.

there have been years where I felt the QB class was bad and multiple firsts get spent on players I didnt think would ever make good pros.   So the hype train gets going and things just dont go as planned.

This year the hype train has been largely negative so far.  but I really dont think the QB class is much worse than the year Goff and Wentz went.  yet Goff and Wentz were both early picks.

what complicates things is that next years class is supposed to be good, so there is a better chance teams may forego a QB this year to roll the dice next year.

[weepaws 3,434]

4 hours ago, DocNiner said:

Granted being in Chicago wasn't the best scenario for him to succeed so he humbled himself and went to Buffalo.to be a backup to Josh Allen and kind of get his career in perspective. It was a godsend when Pittsburgh called him and it seems he has a pretty good chance to be the starter week 1. Until, with the 20th pick the Steelers pick area Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett. Since Pickett will now be in house what does this mean for Trubisky? He has weapons to be successful but somehow I have a gut feeling he's going to falter and give way to the rookie by mid-season. I'd this scenario likely? Maybe. Is it possible? Definitely. It'll depends on if the Steelers draft Pickett because Willis will not be there come pick 20. If they don't draft Pickett I could see Trubisky with average success. As I said I just have a gut feeling he's not gonna take them to a superbowl and most of the time I trust my gut. 

Super Bowl? Really.  

[IGotWorms 4,063]

4 hours ago, DocNiner said:

Granted being in Chicago wasn't the best scenario for him to succeed so he humbled himself and went to Buffalo.to be a backup to Josh Allen and kind of get his career in perspective. It was a godsend when Pittsburgh called him and it seems he has a pretty good chance to be the starter week 1. Until, with the 20th pick the Steelers pick area Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett. Since Pickett will now be in house what does this mean for Trubisky? He has weapons to be successful but somehow I have a gut feeling he's going to falter and give way to the rookie by mid-season. I'd this scenario likely? Maybe. Is it possible? Definitely. It'll depends on if the Steelers draft Pickett because Willis will not be there come pick 20. If they don't draft Pickett I could see Trubisky with average success. As I said I just have a gut feeling he's not gonna take them to a superbowl and most of the time I trust my gut. 

I think Trubisky gets the full year barring extreme circumstances

[Ray_T 798]

1 hour ago, IGotWorms said:

I think Trubisky gets the full year barring extreme circumstances

well, if no QB gets taken in the first half of round one, and Pittsburgh gets their pick of this years QB crop, the plan could change and he could have a shorter leash than he'd otherwise have.   I'm just not betting on it.

you are probably right.  barring something unforseen, it looks like the Steelers are giving him a legit shot to start.   That means he'd have to stink the joint out to get replaced.

That said, he and Rudolph are the only QB on the roster at the moment, so it could potentially be a fluid situation.   If they dont sign someone, I think they have to draft someone to develop  (at the very least)

 

[AxeElf 787]

No risky, no 'bisky...

[DocNiner 71]

Yeah, even if Trubisky plays all year and.has above average production I don't think he can get them to the SB. Pittsburgh may not even draft a QB and it's.quite possible that Pickett and Willis are gone come pick 20. They have studs on offense,, D.Jonson,Claypool, Freirmuth and Najee Harris. They will help Trubisky's production but I still feel he's.not the future.for Pittsburgh.

[weepaws 3,434]

Steelers won’t make the playoffs this next season.  

[Ray_T 798]

2 hours ago, DocNiner said:

Yeah, even if Trubisky plays all year and.has above average production I don't think he can get them to the SB. Pittsburgh may not even draft a QB and it's.quite possible that Pickett and Willis are gone come pick 20. They have studs on offense,, D.Jonson,Claypool, Freirmuth and Najee Harris. They will help Trubisky's production but I still feel he's.not the future.for Pittsburgh.

Well, if a decent QB does not fall to them, the smart move is to draft someone they can plug and play for the line.   The line has been horrible, and if they are gonna spend a lot of draft capital on a QB next year, the least they can do is draft one or two young players to plug the leaky line.

Then at least whoever they draft wont get killed/ruined back there due to poor protection.