Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Dameon Pierce, Texans

[The Football Guru 222]

Draft Profile

Team Fit: Pierce routinely powers through the first tackle attempt and leaves multiple defenders in his wake. However, he is more than just a bulldozer. He is patient when he needs to be and urgent when he needs to be, all the while showing enough juice to pick up a decent chunk of yardage. He lacks the elite explosiveness that allows him to score from anywhere on the field (of his 206 carries in 2020 and 2021, only two resulted in a play of at least 25 yards). His biggest issue: why did Florida never give him more than 23 snaps in a game? Pierce figures to immediately become the thunder to Marlon Mack's lightning and, at worst, take over as the goal-line option in Houston. He can be considered as an RB5 with decent upside.

[weepaws 3,158]

I can’t wait to see how he’s used during the preseason, could be their top rb.  

[Kopy 559]

On 4/30/2022 at 1:26 PM, weepaws said:

I can’t wait to see how he’s used during the preseason, could be their top rb.  

I had him as a sleeper I might be able to land in round 3. Now, no way. I think he outright wins the job in Houston. Really got drafted into an excellent situation.

 

[weepaws 3,158]

I would agree, now will the coach.  

[weepaws 3,158]

Great stat line in his first preseason game, he’s going to win that job.  And his ADP right is great.  I’ll take him over a second Qb in a one Qb league.   

Thanks. 

[AxeElf 787]

I can virtually guarantee that barring injury to Mack, Pierce will not be the starting RB for Houston in Week 1.  The reason is because they play Mack's old team, the Colts, in Week 1.  Even if they like Pierce better for the long run, why wouldn't they capitalize on Mack's extra motivation in the revenge game?

But Mack is no slouch.  He's not just some placeholder journeyman keeping the position warm until they find a capable younger guy.  Pierce is going to have to take it.

[nobody 2,580]

I doubt it will be too difficult when Mack is injured by week 3.

[weepaws 3,158]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I can virtually guarantee that barring injury to Mack, Pierce will not be the starting RB for Houston in Week 1.  The reason is because they play Mack's old team, the Colts, in Week 1.  Even if they like Pierce better for the long run, why wouldn't they capitalize on Mack's extra motivation in the revenge game?

But Mack is no slouch.  He's not just some placeholder journeyman keeping the position warm until they find a capable younger guy.  Pierce is going to have to take it.

Maybe.  

15 minutes ago, nobody said:

I doubt it will be too difficult when Mack is injured by week 3.

Maybe

On 5/1/2022 at 5:22 PM, Kopy said:

I had him as a sleeper I might be able to land in round 3. Now, no way. I think he outright wins the job in Houston. Really got drafted into an excellent situation.

 

Winner.  

[AxeElf 787]

37 minutes ago, nobody said:

I doubt it will be too difficult when Mack is injured by week 3.

Ok Nostradamus, but he's only had one serious injury in his six year career, so you're kind of betting a longshot there.

[nobody 2,580]

1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Ok Nostradamus, but he's only had one serious injury in his six year career, so you're kind of betting a longshot there.

I'm sure everyone will be so shocked when he gets injured.

[AxeElf 787]

2 minutes ago, nobody said:

I'm sure everyone will be so shocked when he gets injured.

Injuries are commonplace in the NFL, but most people don't draft in anticipation of them unless it's a player with an extensive or regular injury history.

[nobody 2,580]

So we all agree.  Mack is probably going to get injured this year giving Pierce an opening to take his job.

[AxeElf 787]

1 minute ago, nobody said:

So we all agree.  Mack is probably going to get injured this year giving Pierce an opening to take his job.

They really need to require reading comprehension tests before they go around allowing just anyone to post here.

[nobody 2,580]

2 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

They really need to require reading comprehension tests before they go around allowing just anyone to post here.

So you think Mack won't get injured even though you said injuries are commonplace in the NFL?

I get your stance is you don't know.  And probably how could anyone know.  I'm predicting it here and now.  Mack will miss at least two games this year.  Since you're so sure no one can predict injuries, I'm sure you'll be shocked when it happens.

[AxeElf 787]

8 minutes ago, nobody said:

So you think Mack won't get injured even though you said injuries are commonplace in the NFL?

The vast majority of NFL players make it through the season without serious injury.  And yet injuries are commonplace in the NFL.  Welcome to Bizarro World.

I wouldn't be shocked if Mack missed a game or two with an ailment of some sort.  I would be shocked if he's out for the year by Week 3, which is the claim to which I initially objected.

[nobody 2,580]

I said injured by week 3.  Not out for the year.  I thought you were the one talking about reading comprehension all the time?

[RedzoneMonster 107]

I saw a bunch of responses on this post, so I clicked hoping to find a lot of people posting their thoughts on Pierce. Instead the majority of posts are AxeElf arguing back and forth with someone over some mundane point.  What else is new?…

[weepaws 3,158]

2 hours ago, RedzoneMonster said:

I saw a bunch of responses on this post, so I clicked hoping to find a lot of people posting their thoughts on Pierce. Instead the majority of posts are AxeElf arguing back and forth with someone over some mundane point.  What else is new?…

I think he’s going be there  week one starter, might be a RBBC with Mack, but Pierce should get the nod over Mack in the short yardage and goal line.   

[AxeElf 787]

5 hours ago, nobody said:

I said injured by week 3.  Not out for the year.  I thought you were the one talking about reading comprehension all the time?

The implication was that the injury would be serious enough to hand Pierce the starting job for the remainder of the season.  That's what reading comprehension requires--reading between the lines to understand what isn't explicitly stated.

If you only meant for a week or two, then your scenario is more likely, if so trivial as to be meaningless.

[nobody 2,580]

Or he won't have to miss many games for Pierce to take the job.

[weepaws 3,158]

Sounds more and more likely Mr Pierce will be the Texans rb1

[jrokh 608]

6 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Sounds more and more likely Mr Pierce will be the Texans rb1

Does Rotoworld also tell you when to go to the bathroom?

[weepaws 3,158]

5 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Does Rotoworld also tell you when to go to the bathroom?

Why did roto report something similar, this info was an email from a different more reliable source. 

Please tell what did roto say about this issue? 

[weepaws 3,158]

26 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Does Rotoworld also tell you when to go to the bathroom?

For you from roto, A Gibson working out with the punt team, now that’s interesting, might want to move B Robinson up. M

[DrG 102]

Was Pierce running against scrubs and can he pass block? 

[weepaws 3,158]

I read a game report this morning that said Pierce didn’t play last nights preseason game, one would think a rookie can use that extra game time learning experience, unless that rookie might have won the starting job? Maybe.  

[Ray_T 741]

On 8/14/2022 at 5:45 PM, nobody said:

So we all agree.  Mack is probably going to get injured this year giving Pierce an opening to take his job.

I am less worried about his recurring injury history than I am about the most recent serious injury (achilles) its a notoriously bad injury for rb's.    if he could come back and play like he was pre injury hes likely winning the starting job outright.   but my concern is that he will never be the player he was.

an achilles tear can be a career ender for RB's  especially if its a bad one and I think his was bad.

so the problem with Mack will likely be he just cant perform the way he once did.

 

 

[AxeElf 787]

Mack looked solid last night.  Seeing as how all the other starters ran with the first team, it's much more likely that Pierce just wasn't good enough than that he was the sole offensive player being "protected."

Sorry Pierce investors...

[weepaws 3,158]

Less likely that he isn’t good enough, much more likely he’s the best rb and they protected him.  

They wouldn’t hold out a rookie , they would want to give him even more work if he hasn’t been good enough.  

Thanks 

[Ray_T 741]

for the record  Mack is still llisted as the starter on all websites I have looked at.

Pierce is now listed as the #2 RB on fftoday, ourlads and one other site (I forget which) and ESPN has him as the #3 RB.   I'm inclined to think ESPN hasnt updated this info recently but as of now, Mack is still listed as the starter.

That doesnt necessarily mean anything.   

more likely this is a committee.    but I am betting it starts with more Mack carries in this committee and Pierce gains ground over the course of the year until he is leading the committee.

how quickly this happens is speculative.  it could be 5 games, it could be 10 or 15.

its also possible that they continue to list Mack as the starter while hes getting outtouched by someone else Presumably Pierce.

 

[jrokh 608]

41 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Mack looked solid last night.  Seeing as how all the other starters ran with the first team, it's much more likely that Pierce just wasn't good enough than that he was the sole offensive player being "protected."

Sorry Pierce investors...

I don’t know if you’ve just trolling, but C’mon Man!

[AxeElf 787]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Pierce is now listed as the #2 RB on fftoday, ourlads and one other site (I forget which) and ESPN has him as the #3 RB.   I'm inclined to think ESPN hasnt updated this info recently but as of now, Mack is still listed as the starter.

Regardless of who nominally "starts," Burkhead will be the #2/pass catching RB.

But it is noteworthy that they treated Mack as the starter in last night's dress rehearsal, and relegated Pierce to the bench.

With a lot of preseason buzz around Pierce, Mack is starting to emerge as a deep draft value at RB.

[Ray_T 741]

3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Mack is starting to emerge as a deep draft value at RB

I suppose that depends on what you consider deep draft value.

they both play for the texans.    their max upside for either player is that of a low end RB2 and thats only if they win the starting job outright.   A lot would have to go right for this to happen.

RB's on losing teams just dont get the fantasy points.   There are exceptions but usually it involves having a top run blocking O line and/or an elite talent at RB.

Neither of these guys meets the criteria.    but in garbage time the team isnt running the ball and that takes guys like Mack or Pierce out of the game.   Mack isnt really a pass catcher.   I dont remember reading anything about pierce being one either. (unless my memory is wrong)   Pierce also had only a 4.59 40 so he doesnt have the blazing speed.  hes clearly a power back.

[AxeElf 787]

10 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I suppose that depends on what you consider deep draft value.

they both play for the texans.    their max upside for either player is that of a low end RB2 and thats only if they win the starting job outright.   A lot would have to go right for this to happen.

RB's on losing teams just dont get the fantasy points.   There are exceptions but usually it involves having a top run blocking O line and/or an elite talent at RB.

Neither of these guys meets the criteria.    but in garbage time the team isnt running the ball and that takes guys like Mack or Pierce out of the game.   Mack isnt really a pass catcher.   I dont remember reading anything about pierce being one either. (unless my memory is wrong)   Pierce also had only a 4.59 40 so he doesnt have the blazing speed.  hes clearly a power back.

Like I said, Burkhead will be the receiving back, regardless of who is running on 1st and 2nd down.

And I don't expect Mack to be a surprise RB1 or anything; but as a "deep draft value" I see him as someone available in any round of the draft who should provide flexable production most weeks, or even as you said, low-end RB2 production in larger leagues.  As bye week depth and stud insurance, you could do a lot worse.  (Like Pierce, for instance.)

RB25-30 range.

[Ray_T 741]

20 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

RB25-30 range.

ok fair enough.   I think there is a wider range for these guys depending on how many carries get poached by the other.

I was thinking RB25-35.

and if you can get him for cheaper than the RB35 is going then you should probably buy.    I dont know what the current ADP is on either player at this point.  

[nobody 2,580]

The problem with this Pierce situation is it's binary.

In one state they protected him because they already recognize he's one of their best players and plan to lean on him.

On the other, he could be in the dog house because he broke some rule, and they don't want to advertise that.

We'll know more in preseason game 3.  If he doesn't play again, I think he'll end up the starter.

[Ray_T 741]

2 hours ago, nobody said:

The problem with this Pierce situation is it's binary.

In one state they protected him because they already recognize he's one of their best players and plan to lean on him.

On the other, he could be in the dog house because he broke some rule, and they don't want to advertise that.

We'll know more in preseason game 3.  If he doesn't play again, I think he'll end up the starter.

possibly.    all reports I saw were positive and it sounds like they were happy with him.

but some teams can keep a lid on reports such as this better than others.    it could also be a case where others were on the fringe of being cut and they wanted to give them one last shot to prove they belong.

these types of analysis are often multi sided and its really hard to figure out what the team really thinks.    thats also deliberate on the part of the team.  makes it harder for other teams to get a good read on what they are gonna do come the regular season.

[AxeElf 787]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I dont know what the current ADP is on either player at this point.

Marlon Mack is currently RB58 with an ADP of 155.04, after guys like Ronald Jones, Kenyan Drake, and Darrel Williams.

Pierce is currently RB36 with an ADP of 83.96, just after Kareem Hunt and Damien Harris.

40 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

it could also be a case where others were on the fringe of being cut and they wanted to give them one last shot to prove they belong.

The whole starting unit is about to be cut, so the coach decided to give them one last look on the first drive of their second preseason game--but Pierce is the ONE starter who's actually safe, so he didn't need to play.

Yeah, that sounds like a likely scenario.

[nobody 2,580]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

 

The whole starting unit is about to be cut, so the coach decided to give them one last look on the first drive of their second preseason game--but Pierce is the ONE starter who's actually safe, so he didn't need to play.

And Brandin Cooks.  They sat him, too.

[cmh6476 1,016]

So is mack going to be injured by week 3, or not?