Which rookie RB?

[polecatt 403]

Lots of RBs drafted, we know one or two will emerge as high picks in fantasy drafts...

Who will they be?

Which rookie RB/s will be fantasy relevant season?

I have no idea...

[jrokh 569]

You talking redraft or dynasty/rookie? In redraft I rank em 1) Kenneth Walker- Will be a star. 2) Breece Hall- Should get enough work to be flex worthy. 3) James Cook- Bills- better version of Singletary. 4) Rachaad White-TB replaces Ronald Jones could get a lot of work. 5) Dameon Pierce-Texans- easiest path to starter than perhaps any rookie RB.

[polecatt 403]

Thanks, I only play dynasty, so I guess that's how I'm looking at it.

Looks like Kenneth Walker will be the one to go after. Then a few with some promise.

First pick in the fantasy draft is pretty much always the top rookie RB. That may not be the case this season.

I had the 2nd pick last season and took Kyle Pitts over Javonte Williams.

RB is going way downhill in value. They're like TEs now

[jrokh 569]

4 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Thanks, I only play dynasty, so I guess that's how I'm looking at it.

Looks like Kenneth Walker will be the one to go after. Then a few with some promise.

First pick in the fantasy draft is pretty much always the top rookie RB. That may not be the case this season.

I had the 2nd pick last season and took Kyle Pitts over Javonte Williams.

RB is going way downhill in value. They're like TEs now

In Dynasty I'd put Breece and Kenneth Walker in a tier of their own.

[polecatt 403]

2 minutes ago, jrokh said:

In Dynasty I'd put Breece and Kenneth Walker in a tier of their own.

You think James Cook could break out a bit?

I think Buffalo could be a prime spot for a RB to take over now

[weepaws 2,460]

Hall Jets. 

Walker Hawks

Ingram Zona

Cook Bills

Spiller Chargers 

Pierce Texans.  

[DocNiner 44]

12 hours ago, weepaws said:

Hall Jets. 

Walker Hawks

Ingram Zona

Cook Bills

Spiller Chargers 

Pierce Texans.  

Ditto. That's how I'd rank them. Who knows how they'll pan out in the future but I think Hall and Walker will get enough work this year to make them fantasy relevant.

[polecatt 403]

13 hours ago, weepaws said:

Hall Jets. 

Walker Hawks

Ingram Zona

Cook Bills

Spiller Chargers 

Pierce Texans.  

So the top rookie RB is on the Jets? Ouch!

Didn't they have a decent looking rookie RB last season? Michael Carter showed some promise

[Utilit99 4,099]

22 minutes ago, polecatt said:

So the top rookie RB is on the Jets? Ouch!

Didn't they have a decent looking rookie RB last season? Michael Carter showed some promise

I'm taking Hall in my dynasty #1 overall. I'm in a superflex and my #1 QB was Watson last year. So that put me in line to tank. I traded for a couple first rounders for this year's draft and now have 4 picks in the first 13 overall. I know there is a guy picking 2nd and 3rd that will draft Hall if I don't. Unless he prefers Walker. Either way, most clubs have RB share in place and I figure if you just take the good ones they will pay off in the end.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

So the top rookie RB is on the Jets? Ouch!

Didn't they have a decent looking rookie RB last season? Michael Carter showed some promise

The numbers say Carter did well for a rookie on a craptastic team.  I never watched the games, so I really don't know how he did.  I'm inclined to be skeptic about Hall's ceiling because I think Carter will get too many touches.  That said, he could have a reasonable floor.  My thinking is that they know they done flocked up with the Wilson pick and they're going to try and protect him with a lot of hand offs.  They did draft top WR and TE prospects, but that makes two rookies their best receiving options.  This year is going to be a run heavy / conservative offense.  They'll look to replace Wilson in next years' draft.

[weepaws 2,460]

Move Allgeir up , M Davis is gone.  

[robb 71]

"I had the 2nd pick last season and took Kyle Pitts over Javonte Williams."

I did this also! And, so far, I am not regretting it. Gordon sure hampers Williams value while Pitt is a star in the making , as we speak!

[weepaws 2,460]

What does that have to do with this thread, which rookie rb? 

[IGotWorms 3,315]

On 5/2/2022 at 6:16 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

The numbers say Carter did well for a rookie on a craptastic team.  I never watched the games, so I really don't know how he did.  I'm inclined to be skeptic about Hall's ceiling because I think Carter will get too many touches.  That said, he could have a reasonable floor.  My thinking is that they know they done flocked up with the Wilson pick and they're going to try and protect him with a lot of hand offs.  They did draft top WR and TE prospects, but that makes two rookies their best receiving options.  This year is going to be a run heavy / conservative offense.  They'll look to replace Wilson in next years' draft.

Carter was decent but somewhat miscast as a primary ball carrier. He’d be a good chance of pace guy and I’m thinking the Jets must agree. Plenty of opportunity for Hall

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

17 hours ago, robb said:

"I had the 2nd pick last season and took Kyle Pitts over Javonte Williams."

I did this also! And, so far, I am not regretting it. Gordon sure hampers Williams value while Pitt is a star in the making , as we speak!

In the past, I'd have said that you were nuts, but not in today's NFL.  You want to draft RB's who are RB1's day 1 because they have a 3/4-year window.  If 1 or 2 of those years are in RBBC mode, you're never getting value.  Go with the guy who'll give you 6+ years over the RB who might only give you 2 or 3.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

9 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Carter was decent but somewhat miscast as a primary ball carrier. He’d be a good chance of pace guy and I’m thinking the Jets must agree. Plenty of opportunity for Hall

That makes sense, but I do think he'll (Carter), will get more than the normal share that a change of pace back gets, simply because they won't want Wilson to throw much.  I think that limits Hall's ceiling because the more times Carter is on the field, the TD's he can get.  Also, Carter has proven to be a good pass catcher and he'll be used more for that than Hall.  Not getting receptions will limit Hall's ceiling as well.  For dynasty and keeper leagues, Hall will be fine.  For redraft leagues, I'd have him as an RB3 (round 5/6 - maybe 7).

[weepaws 2,460]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

In the past, I'd have said that you were nuts, but not in today's NFL.  You want to draft RB's who are RB1's day 1 because they have a 3/4-year window.  If 1 or 2 of those years are in RBBC mode, you're never getting value.  Go with the guy who'll give you 6+ years over the RB who might only give you 2 or 3.

No guarantee that Pitts gives one 6+ years.  

[weepaws 2,460]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That makes sense, but I do think he'll (Carter), will get more than the normal share that a change of pace back gets, simply because they won't want Wilson to throw much.  I think that limits Hall's ceiling because the more times Carter is on the field, the TD's he can get.  Also, Carter has proven to be a good pass catcher and he'll be used more for that than Hall.  Not getting receptions will limit Hall's ceiling as well.  For dynasty and keeper leagues, Hall will be fine.  For redraft leagues, I'd have him as an RB3 (round 5/6 - maybe 7).

I don’t think any of the rookie Rbs should be ranked higher then a rb3 right now, how about you? 

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

I don’t think any of the rookie Rbs should be ranked higher then a rb3 right now, how about you? 

If anyone is listed by the team as being the new starter, then I think its fair to label them as a RB2.

Otherwise RB3 (or RB4) is the place to be for fantasy.

I havnt seen any rookie RB's referred to as starting.   it looks like there may be a few camp battles for starting roles but none yet labeled as a clear cut starter. (someone correct me if I'm wrong on this)

[Utilit99 4,099]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That makes sense, but I do think he'll (Carter), will get more than the normal share that a change of pace back gets, simply because they won't want Wilson to throw much.  I think that limits Hall's ceiling because the more times Carter is on the field, the TD's he can get.  Also, Carter has proven to be a good pass catcher and he'll be used more for that than Hall.  Not getting receptions will limit Hall's ceiling as well.  For dynasty and keeper leagues, Hall will be fine.  For redraft leagues, I'd have him as an RB3 (round 5/6 - maybe 7).

Well, you could say if he doesn't throw much, that could mean there are another 10-15 more rushing opportunities a game. So Hall would get a full load anyway. 

They drafted Hall for a reason. They want a guy they can count on, on any down. Run or pass. 

Let's see how things shape up by like game 10 of the season.

[Ray_T 591]

17 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

you could say if he doesn't throw much, that could mean there are another 10-15 more rushing opportunities a game

This might be overly optomistic.

Team isnt a winning team so I'd say this works out to an extra 2-5 carries per game tops.

If the team starts winning the adjustment may be larger due to the better gamescript.

[weepaws 2,460]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

If anyone is listed by the team as being the new starter, then I think its fair to label them as a RB2.

Otherwise RB3 (or RB4) is the place to be for fantasy.

I havnt seen any rookie RB's referred to as starting.   it looks like there may be a few camp battles for starting roles but none yet labeled as a clear cut starter. (someone correct me if I'm wrong on this)

Footballguys has B Hall listed as the Jets rb1, he’s the only rookie I see on that site listed as his teams rb1. 

[Ray_T 591]

47 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Footballguys has B Hall listed as the Jets rb1, he’s the only rookie I see on that site listed as his teams rb1. 

I"m a bit surprised but there you go. hes the only one who has a chance of being an RB2 in fantasy if the draft were to be held today.

now the question you have to ask.... is he a 1 to somebody elses 1A?

just because hes listed as a starter is not a guarantee hes an RB2.  there are 32 Starting RB's in the NFL.   to be an RB2 he needs to be 24th best (or better)

but I'd say hes at the very least in the conversation.

Now the puzzle really involves figuring out how much playing time the kid is gonna get and figuring out which RB starters hes gonna out perform.

I'm not sure I'm ready to touch that one.  for me it really depends what percentage of the RB touches they give the kid.

I think I'd still call him a high end RB3.  but I can see why some would call him a low end RB2.  I'm just not encouraged by the offense and team as a whole. (not yet anyhow)

so I think I'd leave him as RB3 until some info comes out that suggests he could be an RB2.   come Training camp I think we will have a better idea how the team will use him

either way, this has been a nice discussion.  thanks for your input.

 

[weepaws 2,460]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

I don’t think any of the rookie Rbs should be ranked higher then a rb3 right now, how about you? 

That’s why I said that. 

[Ray_T 591]

Just now, weepaws said:

That’s why I said that. 

and I agreed.   but some people need to see the thought process for how we got there.

The extra chat gave that and now people will either agree or they wont, but at least they will have all the info available at this point in time.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

If anyone is listed by the team as being the new starter, then I think its fair to label them as a RB2.

Otherwise RB3 (or RB4) is the place to be for fantasy.

I havnt seen any rookie RB's referred to as starting.   it looks like there may be a few camp battles for starting roles but none yet labeled as a clear cut starter. (someone correct me if I'm wrong on this)

From things that I've read on fantasy sites and heard on satellite radio, I think Hall would've been an RB1 had he gone to teams like Miami, Kansas City, Philly, or Atlanta.  Looking at the current landscape of RB's, the players I'd put in the RB1 category are (no specific order)...

• Mixon
• Harris
• Chubb
• McCaffrey
• Henry
• Taylor
• Ekler
• Elliott
• Cook
• Fournette
• Kamara

That leaves a couple other guys that are debatable, such as Swift, A. Jones, Jacobs, etc.  Had Hall gone to a team with no clear cut starter and in need of guy like him (such as the teams I listed above), I'd take the shot with him to fill that final slot as the RB1 over the other guys.  Honestly, I'm not even sure I'd put McCaffrey and Elliott as locks to be RB1's.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

That makes sense, but I do think he'll (Carter), will get more than the normal share that a change of pace back gets, simply because they won't want Wilson to throw much.  I think that limits Hall's ceiling because the more times Carter is on the field, the TD's he can get.  Also, Carter has proven to be a good pass catcher and he'll be used more for that than Hall.  Not getting receptions will limit Hall's ceiling as well.  For dynasty and keeper leagues, Hall will be fine.  For redraft leagues, I'd have him as an RB3 (round 5/6 - maybe 7).

Yeah that sounds about right. I’d take him hoping he ends up an RB2, but I’d be real hesitant to draft him as one

[Ray_T 591]

43 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

From things that I've read on fantasy sites and heard on satellite radio, I think Hall would've been an RB1 had he gone to teams like Miami, Kansas City, Philly, or Atlanta.  Looking at the current landscape of RB's, the players I'd put in the RB1 category are (no specific order)...

• Mixon
• Harris
• Chubb
• McCaffrey
• Henry
• Taylor
• Ekler
• Elliott
• Cook
• Fournette
• Kamara

That leaves a couple other guys that are debatable, such as Swift, A. Jones, Jacobs, etc.  Had Hall gone to a team with no clear cut starter and in need of guy like him (such as the teams I listed above), I'd take the shot with him to fill that final slot as the RB1 over the other guys.  Honestly, I'm not even sure I'd put McCaffrey and Elliott as locks to be RB1's.

So you are thinking full fledged RB2?   Even playing for the lowly Jets?

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

13 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

So you are thinking full fledged RB2?   Even playing for the lowly Jets?

No, I'd start him off as an RB3.  I was just saying that I'd have him as a potential RB1 depending on who he went to.  I think he could be an RB2 if he gets a lot of touches and Wilson actually turns out to not suck.  But as of right now, I think he's probably in line for about 13 to 16 total touches with Carter around 9 to 12 per game.  I figure Wilson to be at 24-28 pass attempts per game.  So, on average I see Hall with 14, Carter with 11 and Wilson at 26.  Seems about right.  That puts them around 51.  Last year they ran 58 plays per game.  I can easily see other backs totaling around 7 per game.  I don't see them being any better this year than last year.  As I said, I think Wilson's going to suck.

[Ray_T 591]

5 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

No, I'd start him off as an RB3.  I was just saying that I'd have him as a potential RB1 depending on who he went to.  I think he could be an RB2 if he gets a lot of touches and Wilson actually turns out to not suck.  But as of right now, I think he's probably in line for about 13 to 16 total touches with Carter around 9 to 12 per game.  I figure Wilson to be at 24-28 pass attempts per game.  So, on average I see Hall with 14, Carter with 11 and Wilson at 26.  Seems about right.  That puts them around 51.  Last year they ran 58 plays per game.  I can easily see other backs totaling around 7 per game.  I don't see them being any better this year than last year.  As I said, I think Wilson's going to suck.

ok totally fair.  I do think if it is clear hes the lead dog and not just leading a committee he probably does become an RB2 immediately.

fftoday analysis below:

Hall should emerge as the lead back quickly, but OC Mike LaFleur tends to favor a committee approach. 

the bolded part is the part that really concerns me about drafting this kid as anything more than a high end RB3.

That said, time share guys can put up RB2 numbers.  it happened last year in Denver with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon.

and the scouting report on  him was pretty glowing.  I'm almost surprised he didnt get taken at the end of round 1.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

ok totally fair.  I do think if it is clear hes the lead dog and not just leading a committee he probably does become an RB2 immediately.

fftoday analysis below:

Hall should emerge as the lead back quickly, but OC Mike LaFleur tends to favor a committee approach. 

the bolded part is the part that really concerns me about drafting this kid as anything more than a high end RB3.

That said, time share guys can put up RB2 numbers.  it happened last year in Denver with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon.

and the scouting report on  him was pretty glowing.  I'm almost surprised he didnt get taken at the end of round 1.

Yup.  I agree he could be an RB2.  For me, the difference between the Denver situation and the Jets is that I think the Jets are going to totally suck again.  But again, RB2 is possible... but I certainly won't draft based on that upside.  I guess the ONLY way I'd do that is if I went 3 WR's, 1 RB, QB, TE in the first 6 rounds and he was still there.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

34 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

ok totally fair.  I do think if it is clear hes the lead dog and not just leading a committee he probably does become an RB2 immediately.

fftoday analysis below:

Hall should emerge as the lead back quickly, but OC Mike LaFleur tends to favor a committee approach. 

the bolded part is the part that really concerns me about drafting this kid as anything more than a high end RB3.

That said, time share guys can put up RB2 numbers.  it happened last year in Denver with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon.

and the scouting report on  him was pretty glowing.  I'm almost surprised he didnt get taken at the end of round 1.

Everyone favors a committee approach now 

[Ray_T 591]

49 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yup.  I agree he could be an RB2.  For me, the difference between the Denver situation and the Jets is that I think the Jets are going to totally suck again.  But again, RB2 is possible... but I certainly won't draft based on that upside.  I guess the ONLY way I'd do that is if I went 3 WR's, 1 RB, QB, TE in the first 6 rounds and he was still there.

well, here is hoping the hype train doesnt get going on him.  He strikes me as a good gamble at RB3 (if you can call this a gamble) with reasonably good to very good upside.

 

[weepaws 2,460]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

ok totally fair.  I do think if it is clear hes the lead dog and not just leading a committee he probably does become an RB2 immediately.

fftoday analysis below:

Hall should emerge as the lead back quickly, but OC Mike LaFleur tends to favor a committee approach. 

the bolded part is the part that really concerns me about drafting this kid as anything more than a high end RB3.

That said, time share guys can put up RB2 numbers.  it happened last year in Denver with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon.

and the scouting report on  him was pretty glowing.  I'm almost surprised he didnt get taken at the end of round 1.

Pretty much the norm in today’s nfl.  

[weepaws 2,460]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

From things that I've read on fantasy sites and heard on satellite radio, I think Hall would've been an RB1 had he gone to teams like Miami, Kansas City, Philly, or Atlanta.  Looking at the current landscape of RB's, the players I'd put in the RB1 category are (no specific order)...

• Mixon
• Harris
• Chubb
• McCaffrey
• Henry
• Taylor
• Ekler
• Elliott
• Cook
• Fournette
• Kamara

That leaves a couple other guys that are debatable, such as Swift, A. Jones, Jacobs, etc.  Had Hall gone to a team with no clear cut starter and in need of guy like him (such as the teams I listed above), I'd take the shot with him to fill that final slot as the RB1 over the other guys.  Honestly, I'm not even sure I'd put McCaffrey and Elliott as locks to be RB1's.

Do you think the Zeke is worth a rb1 pick? 

[polecatt 403]

15 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

In the past, I'd have said that you were nuts, but not in today's NFL.  You want to draft RB's who are RB1's day 1 because they have a 3/4-year window.  If 1 or 2 of those years are in RBBC mode, you're never getting value.  Go with the guy who'll give you 6+ years over the RB who might only give you 2 or 3.

I've been playing dynasty for a long time, and it's not that long ago I wouldn't have even thought about this and taken the RB.

However, times have changed, like you say. RB value is at an all time low, IMO. There are very, very few workhorse, fantasy stud RBs.

However, a top notch, generational talent at TE, like Kyle Pitts is supposed to be, is an excellent value.

[weepaws 2,460]

After their first season in the nfl, J Williams as a 43 point 1/2 ppr lead.  

 

[Ray_T 591]

On 5/4/2022 at 6:00 PM, weepaws said:

Do you think the Zeke is worth a rb1 pick? 

I think he is... but barely.

hes on the cusp of RB1/2 but more RB1 than RB2 at this point.

hes definitely not a top 5 RB anymore.

[BobSanders_33 127]

On 5/1/2022 at 5:33 PM, weepaws said:

Hall Jets. 

Walker Hawks

Ingram Zona

Cook Bills

Spiller Chargers 

Pierce Texans.  

What is the love for Ingram so high?  I know that Connor is injury prone but I don't see more talent or production than Eno Benjamin.  Cook has draft capital on the Bills.  Spiller is younger and only has Eckler in front of him.  Pierce is on a horrible offense but could be a lead back.

When I watch Ingram tape I just don't see anything special.

[Ray_T 591]

8 minutes ago, BobSanders_33 said:

When I watch Ingram tape I just don't see anything special.

Ingram is solid yet unspectacular in all facets of his game.

hes a solid inside runner.  good pass catcher.

he wont likely be  top 10 at either but most pass catchers dont run well and most great runners dont catch the ball as well.   so by being solid but not spectacular at each, he actually turns out to be a very underrated player.

if you had him as an RB2 you could do a whole lot worse.