The 2023 Housing Bubble ***Apocalypse***

[TimHauck 1,793]

5 minutes ago, edjr said:

RE Agents seem to be the precipice for the inflated prices in housing right now. Scumfucks lying to people and inflating housing 

Lying about what?  Don’t get me wrong most RE agents are horrible but I don’t think they really did anything differently the past 2 years than the previous 30 or whatever.

I guess you could argue they shouldn’t have suggested people to do no inspection offers and stuff like that but in a lot of cases you needed to do that to get your offer accepted.

[Raven Fan 362]

8 minutes ago, edjr said:

RE Agents seem to be the precipice for the inflated prices in housing right now. Scumfucks lying to people and inflating housing 

RE agents really are useless POS's for the most part.  But don't worry, prices will continue to fall bigly in 23 and their uselessness will be exposed.

[edjr 5,547]

3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Lying about what?  Don’t get me wrong most RE agents are horrible but I don’t think they really did anything differently the past 2 years than the previous 30 or whatever.

I guess you could argue they shouldn’t have suggested people to do no inspection offers and stuff like that but in a lot of cases you needed to do that to get your offer accepted.

especially now they are lying. Not telling people that want to sell the truth. The prices people are still asking for is laughable. The market has changed. accept it. Tell people the truth

[TimHauck 1,793]

56 minutes ago, edjr said:

especially now they are lying. Not telling people that want to sell the truth. The prices people are still asking for is laughable. The market has changed. accept it. Tell people the truth

Meh, this is the last thing I’d expect RE agents to be lying about right now.  They actually want the houses they list to sell. If anything I imagine sellers saying “but I want what my neighbor got 6 months ago” and the RE agent saying that’s not gonna happen.  

IMO what’s “changed” is simply there’s no longer the craziness of multiple over-ask offers within 24 hours, etc.  If a year ago houses were routinely selling for 5-10% over ask and now they’re not or even selling for less than ask, well boom there’s your 5-10% drop in closed prices.

 

[edjr 5,547]

1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

Meh, this is the last thing I’d expect RE agents to be lying about right now.  They actually want the houses they list to sell. If anything I imagine sellers saying “but I want what my neighbor got 6 months ago” and the RE agent saying that’s not gonna happen.  

IMO what’s “changed” is simply there’s no longer the craziness of multiple over-ask offers within 24 hours, etc.  If a year ago houses were routinely selling for 5-10% over ask and now they’re not or even selling for less than ask, well boom there’s your 5-10% drop in closed prices.

 

I saw a house listed a few weeks back that said "all offers due by tuesday at 5 pm"  it's still for sale  

They are clueless and lying to their sellers. 

[Cloaca du jour 2,064]

All of the adjustable rate mortgages are gonna balloon also!!  The rental consortiums are gonna get kicked in the teeth...all the airbnb karens gonna get thumped also.

[TimHauck 1,793]

42 minutes ago, Cloaca du jour said:

All of the adjustable rate mortgages are gonna balloon also!!  The rental consortiums are gonna get kicked in the teeth...all the airbnb karens gonna get thumped also.

People got adjustable rate mortgages between like 2019 and December 2021?

[edjr 5,547]

8 hours ago, TimHauck said:

People got adjustable rate mortgages between like 2019 and December 2021?

Definitely not. Some did this past year though. If they go up there could be blood. I've heard they could go towards 8+

[TimHauck 1,793]

1 minute ago, edjr said:

Definitely not. Some did this past year though. If they go up there could be blood. I've heard they could go towards 8+

Isn’t it usually like 5 years before the rate changes?  I could see that some people may have gotten them around 2018 when interest rates crept up close to 5%, but hopefully most refinanced later when they went to ~3%.

[TimHauck 1,793]

And speaking of mortgage rates, the average 30-year actually decreased from ~7% in November to ~6.3% in December.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US/

[edjr 5,547]

8 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

And speaking of mortgage rates, the average 30-year actually decreased from ~7% in November to ~6.3% in December.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US/

It did. but still way too high with these prices. Something has to give and it won't be the rates

[TimHauck 1,793]

21 hours ago, edjr said:

I saw a house listed a few weeks back that said "all offers due by tuesday at 5 pm"  it's still for sale  

They are clueless and lying to their sellers. 

What’s the price compared to what you think it should be listed at?

I still think it’s more the sellers that are delusional than the RE agents.  Saw a house in the next neighborhood over from me that just sold in June and they’re already selling (not a flip), and they want $10k more than they bought for despite June possibly being the peak.

[edjr 5,547]

3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

What’s the price compared to what you think it should be listed at?

I still think it’s more the sellers that are delusional than the RE agents.  Saw a house in the next neighborhood over from me that just sold in June and they’re already selling (not a flip), and they want $10k more than they bought for despite June possibly being the peak.

Who do you think coaches the sellers?  it's not a sellers idea to put "Offers due by Tuesday" that worked during the pandemic. That won't ever work again

[TimHauck 1,793]

7 minutes ago, edjr said:

Who do you think coaches the sellers?  it's not a sellers idea to put "Offers due by Tuesday" that worked during the pandemic. That won't ever work again

Eh that’s just a marketing tactic, I’d be more interested in the price compared to comps.   Does it still say that now?  If so then this particular RE agent may just be more stupid than the rest.  Many RE agents are sh1tty people, but they’re not all stupid.

[TimHauck 1,793]

31 minutes ago, edjr said:

It did. but still way too high with these prices. Something has to give and it won't be the rates

It’s still a supply and demand issue.  Demand is down because people don’t want to pay the interest rates.  But overall supply is still down because the main people actually selling right now are those that NEED to.  I think part of what’s driving the increase in supply is people realizing we’ve likely passed the peak and trying to capitalize on it, but aren’t willing to accept less than a certain amount if they want to buy something else in cash or whatever, so that’s why you might be seeing listings sitting there and not dropping the price.

As I mentioned, simply no more frenzy of multiple offers and such will give us the ~10ish% decline, but more than that is probably going to require significant job losses.

I also don’t think interest rates will just keep going up up up.  Housing was the main thing driving inflation and we’ve stopped that increase, leading to slowing inflation and thus less need to keep raising rates.

[Raven Fan 362]

3 hours ago, TimHauck said:

It’s still a supply and demand issue.  Demand is down because people don’t want to pay the interest rates.  But overall supply is still down because the main people actually selling right now are those that NEED to.  I think part of what’s driving the increase in supply is people realizing we’ve likely passed the peak and trying to capitalize on it, but aren’t willing to accept less than a certain amount if they want to buy something else in cash or whatever, so that’s why you might be seeing listings sitting there and not dropping the price.

As I mentioned, simply no more frenzy of multiple offers and such will give us the ~10ish% decline, but more than that is probably going to require significant job losses.

I also don’t think interest rates will just keep going up up up.  Housing was the main thing driving inflation and we’ve stopped that increase, leading to slowing inflation and thus less need to keep raising rates.

House will need to drop around 20% in order to get back in equilibrium with 3% interest rates.  This will happen.  It may take 2 or 3 years but it will happen.  Home prices increased 60% in 3 years, to assume they'll only drop 10% or so in the face of much higher interest rates makes no economic sense. 

[TimHauck 1,793]

9 minutes ago, Raven Fan said:

House will need to drop around 20% in order to get back in equilibrium with 3% interest rates.  This will happen.  It may take 2 or 3 years but it will happen.  Home prices increased 60% in 3 years, to assume they'll only drop 10% or so in the face of much higher interest rates makes no economic sense. 

Yeah I was saying the ~10% could happen pretty quickly.   Going down another 10% over the next 2-3 years is certainly a reasonable expectation.    
 

 

[BudBro 116]

10 hours ago, edjr said:

Who do you think coaches the sellers?  it's not a sellers idea to put "Offers due by Tuesday" that worked during the pandemic. That won't ever work again

+1

Fear of missing out got replaced by 6.5% interest rates.  The $450k buyer can only buy $350k now, and those don't exist. 

[Cloaca du jour 2,064]

Alot of those companies bought tons of properties with bridge loans that need to be refinanced in the next few months...they cant take on the raise in interest rates.  The economy was bangin 2 yrs ago..now its a shitshow.

[edjr 5,547]

 

[edjr 5,547]

Quote

Wells Fargo, once the No. 1 player in mortgages, is stepping back from the housing market

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/10/wells-fargo-once-the-no-1-player-in-mortgages-is-stepping-back-from-the-housing-market.html

Quote

 

Wells Fargo
 is stepping back from the multitrillion-dollar market for U.S. mortgages amid regulatory pressure and the impact of higher interest rates.

Instead of its previous goal of reaching as many Americans as possible, the company will now focus on home loans for existing bank and wealth management customers and borrowers in minority communities, CNBC has learned.

Dual factors of a lending market that has collapsed since the Federal Reserve began raising rates last year and questions about the long-term profitability of the business led to the decision, said consumer lending chief Kleber Santos. Regulators have heightened oversight of mortgage lending in the past decade, and Wells Fargo garnered further scrutiny after its 2016 fake accounts scandal.

“We are acutely aware of Wells Fargo’s history since 2016 and the work we need to do to restore public confidence,” Santos said in a phone interview. “As part of that review, we determined that our home-lending business was too large, both in terms of overall size and its scope.”

It’s the latest, and perhaps most significant, strategic shift that CEO Charlie Scharf has undertaken since joining Wells Fargo in late 2019. Mortgages are by far the biggest category of debt held by Americans, making up 71% of the $16.5 trillion in total household balances. Under Scharf’s predecessors, Wells Fargo took pride in its vast share in home loans — it was the country’s top lender as recently as 2019 when it had $201.8 billion in volume, according to industry newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance.

 

WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE  

[TimHauck 1,793]

lol that ed changed the title of a thread he started on 5/11/2022 to "2023 housing bubble"

[edjr 5,547]

1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

lol that ed changed the title of a thread he started on 5/11/2022 to "2023 housing bubble"

Changed it a while ago. before 2023 actually. Pain is coming no matter what the title is. Accept it.  I was right. even if I said it in 2018

[TimHauck 1,793]

1 minute ago, edjr said:

I was right. even if I said it in 2018

lol

 

[Gladiators 1,902]

2 minutes ago, edjr said:

Changed it a while ago. before 2023 actually. Pain is coming no matter what the title is. Accept it.  I was right. even if I said it in 2018

Your winning streak is undeniable

[edjr 5,547]

Just now, Gladiators said:

Your winning streak is undeniable

HAH.  Get on board! 

[TimHauck 1,793]

On 1/10/2023 at 2:02 PM, edjr said:

 

 

The charts around 2:45 are misleading IMO.   He calls out the decline in the number of sales starting around July 2005 which was "nearly 1 year before prices peaked," and looking at the Case Shiller that did seem like a good warning sign back then.

But then he says this time around home sales peaked in August 2020.   But that was basically before the bubble even happened, almost 2 years before the peak in June 2022, and prices rose ~40% since then.   Does it count as a warning sign if you warn of something crashing before it even rises?

 

[edjr 5,547]

 

[edjr 5,547]

 

Largest Annual Drop in Home Prices on Record

[RogerDodger 797]

The long pole in the tent is getting inflation down, but, we do need the housing market to cool off too before we can jumpstart the economy again.

[edjr 5,547]

4 minutes ago, RogerDodger said:

The long pole in the tent is getting inflation down, but, we do need the housing market to cool off too before we can jumpstart the economy again.

I would think we lower real estate, inflation will never come down

[RogerDodger 797]

1 minute ago, edjr said:

I would think we lower real estate, inflation will never come down

It has to or we are all doomed.  But, I'm talking 2-3% inflation.  I agree we may never see 0% and the record lows we experienced just prior to all this happening again.

[RLLD 3,455]

1 hour ago, edjr said:

I would think we lower real estate, inflation will never come down

Oh it will come down, its just a matter of when.  We cannot ignore the formidable problem that Biden's action fomented, which was of course predicated when he did it.....

Unwinding his inane actions, coupled with his stupid attacks on energy is going to take some time.  And it will be impeded by any further stupid actions. Now it does seem that he is relenting on his attacks on the energy sector, so we should take some hope in that. 

[edjr 5,547]

4 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Oh it will come down, its just a matter of when.  We cannot ignore the formidable problem that Biden's action fomented, which was of course predicated when he did it.....

Unwinding his inane actions, coupled with his stupid attacks on energy is going to take some time.  And it will be impeded by any further stupid actions. Now it does seem that he is relenting on his attacks on the energy sector, so we should take some hope in that. 

Trump sent the 1st and 2nd stimulus. 75% of the people didn't need it. 

 

[RLLD 3,455]

Just now, edjr said:

Trump sent the 1st and 2nd stimulus. 

 

Yep, and those were manageable, acceptable.  It is what Biden did that is killing us right now.  We have to work out those inane later actions out of the system, and when coupled with his ancillary actions around energy the entire situation is excaserbated.  Tellingly, he is relenting on his actions toward energy to the chagrin of the climate nazis.  Someone over there is smart enough to know that the energy costs can easily be helped by doing that, and it offers the most immediate tangible weapon to pretend some inflation away. 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,588]

1 hour ago, edjr said:

Trump sent the 1st and 2nd stimulus. 75% of the people didn't need it. 

 

Trump also wanted more before the election but McConnell shot it down. But what Trump wouldn’t have done is shut down pipelines and get us into a stupid war.  

[thegeneral 1,380]

I wouldn’t want to be in commercial real estate.

[edjr 5,547]

21 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I wouldn’t want to be in commercial real estate.

April 2020, Real Estate agents were deemed "Essential"  

[thegeneral 1,380]

20 minutes ago, edjr said:

April 2020, Real Estate agents were deemed "Essential"  

People need houses! 

[TimHauck 1,793]

On 1/12/2023 at 1:45 PM, TimHauck said:

lol that ed changed the title of a thread he started on 5/11/2022 to "2023 housing bubble"

 

On 1/12/2023 at 1:46 PM, edjr said:

Changed it a while ago. before 2023 actually. Pain is coming no matter what the title is. Accept it.  I was right. even if I said it in 2018

Lol