Who are your top value picks?

[cmh6476 1,010]

QB I'd say Rodgers.  Obviously Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, Burrow, Herbert and probably Fields are all drafted ahead of him and have stronger seasons, but after they go I'd be ok taking him in his new setting.

RBs I like:

Swift - new environment probably helps, he couldn't pick a better line to run behind, someone actually believed in him and wanted him, no dumb let him get down the field and let Jamaal seal the deal hopefully, and I simply think he's better than Penny and Philly should be the perfect place for him to shine.

Mattison - The dude has produced when given the chance and is now the man with Cook gone and I think he's gonna show out.

Dobbins - Finished really strong and I think he'll have the chance to be the guy in Baltimore.

Pacheco - I think he does better than last year and should be good value where he is drafted, but the knock is that he takes a back seat to McKinnon on passing downs.

K Herbert - Kind of similar to Mattison, he has usually performed well when leaned upon and no one in his way to block him.  

WRs:

Ridley - I mean the dude has no injury concerns and should be the man in jacksonville with a gunlslinger throwing him the ball.  Plus he's probably got something to prove.

McLaurin - He has performed well each year, and has done so with crap QBs throwing him the ball.  A lot of unknown with Howell, but it seems the Commanders like what they have in him.  Plus new coordinator in Bienemy will be a fresh look in DC, and I think this bodes well for McLaurin.  He may start slow recovering from injury but I think he'll finish strong.

Skyy Moore - heard Steve Smith say he could be a 1200 yard receiver this year, and I agree.  His lone TD came in the postseason last year and I expect that will change as well.  Andy may actually look to get that out of the way early this year just to get it out of his head.  he really struggled with punt returns last year, and they've eliminated that aspect so he could focus on improving as a receiver and I think it helps and he'll be Mahomes second favorite option behind Kelce eventually.

C Watson - Unknown with a new QB, but who knows it might actually help him.  I think he improves upon what was a good rookie campaign.

Aiyuk - To me is more consistent than Samuel and I think he elevates his game this year.

[GobbleDog 981]

Agree: Rodgers, Dobbins, Pacheco, Moore, Aiyuk, and Ridley (though his adp has skyrocketed leaving little "value")

Disagree:

Swift - time share with no goal line work. I foresee lots of 4 rec for 50 total yd games.

Maddison - only semi-disagree. He'll start and show if his talent is better than some question. If it is, he'll score big fantasy points in that offense. But if he doesn't do well, Ty Chandler (much better receiver) could turn it into a rotation, or worse.

Herbert - doesn't get any receptions and ongoing debate if rookie Roschon (some say vastly superior talent) steals job outright.

McLaurin - good receiver, bad situation. Run-first team led by a rushing Qb with 1 NFL start. Dotson gonna get his too. Now there's "turf toe" concern. Wr 29. I see better options in that range. (Aiyuk, Kirk, Locket, etc.)

Watson - "experts" question route running skills, but he's fast. Then there's the mystery Qb. Wr 18 seems high.

[weepaws 3,152]

Qb I would say Tua, Geno last seasons ff mvp, D Carr, J Goff. Would be happy to start any of them week one, and then look st matchups and stream.  

Rbs. Charbonnet, Bigsby, Gibson, I think Gibson in .5 and in full ppr out scores Robinson in ff, Allgeir, J Warren. Love all of these Rbs late.  

Wrs.  C Kirk, who I think will score more ff points then Ridley, B Cooks,  J Addison, J Dobson. 

Te. Schultz, J Johnson.  

 

[RareN64Dream 21]

Who is WR- J. Dobson?

[GobbleDog 981]

26 minutes ago, RareN64Dream said:

Who is WR- J. Dobson?

Surely meant "Jahan Dotson" who does seem like decent value in rds 7 to 8.

[Ray_T 740]

33 minutes ago, RareN64Dream said:

Who is WR- J. Dobson?

You'll have to excuse WeePaws.  hes old and scenile and sometimes goof up in this way.

just joking of course.

all kidding aside, I agree this was likely just a typo.

[GobbleDog 981]

My best value player - Gabe Davis

Suffered a grade 3 high ankle sprain just before the season started, and soldiered through it. But clearly wasn't the player drafters hoped after taking him in the 5th rd.  Gabe still went on to finish number 1 among all Wrs in average targeted air yards.  Obviously didn't cash in on all those opportunities, but deep targets is exactly what we want from our Wrs because when they do connect it's fantasy gold. Worth mentioning George Pickens and Jahan Dotson ranked 4th and 5th in average targeted air yards. Davis had a monster game in the first playoff round (113 yds and Td), and it's always nice to have players who finished strong rather than petering out at the end.

Gabe finished Wr 36 as a result of the bad season. Now everyone seems to forget (or not know) about the ankle injury, which is why he's ranked Wr 49 (espn), going in the 9th round. Total over-reaction by the market. Heck, another bad season means Wr 36ish, so there's already value. But what if he actually has a good season... .?.  I buying shares of that stock. 

[GobbleDog 981]

18 hours ago, weepaws said:

Rbs. Charbonnet, Bigsby, Gibson, I think Gibson in .5 and in full ppr out scores Robinson in ff, Allgeir, J Warren. Love all of these Rbs late. 

Charbonnet, Bigsby and R Johnson immediately came to mind when I read "top value picks", but to be fair they're closer to lotto tickets. I think they're great lotto tickets, but still.

So, my next true value player would be Christian Kirk ranked Wr 33, who finished Wr 12 last year. He almost certainly won't repeat that with Calvin Ridley in town, but Wr 33 is too much over-reaction. Lawrence is expected to another big step forward this season, and while target volume likely decreases, the quality might actually increase as Kirk will now be facing single coverage all season. My guess is he finishes around Wr 20. Value.

[Super Cubs 153]

With out going rookie or deep sleeper.  - Derick Carr, David Montgomery, Kenneth Gainwell, Brandin Cooks, Elijah Moore

[Ray_T 740]

my all value team.

 

QB        Rodgers/Goff   and Love/purdy/Carr as QB2 (if needed)

RB      Walker, Etienne, Pierce, Dobbins, Akers, Pacheco   (lots of value at RB but you will likely only be able to get 2-3 of these)

WR   Hopkins, Cooks, Ridley (though ADP has fallen so not as good a value as he was early in the year), Courtland Sutton, Aiyuk, Evans, Jakobi Meyers

TE  Higbee, Juwan Johnson, LaPorta, Dulcich, Everett

[GobbleDog 981]

11 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

RB      Walker, Etienne, Pierce, Dobbins, Akers, Pacheco   (lots of value at RB but you will likely only be able to get 2-3 of these)

I like your other picks (Akers achilles worries me, but he's drafted late so whatever).

But let's talk Etienne at Rb 10... I think he's gonna be hard pressed to finish even close to that high. Last year he had 23 carries inside the 10 yard line, only scored 4 times. He's just not built to be a goal line back which why the Jags spent a 3rd rd pick on Tank Bigsby. Then there's Lawrence who can Qb sneak or run a few too. So without goal line work, drafters are hoping for lots of receptions. But Etienne only had 35 last year and now Ridley's in town. Also Jags coach has never utilized a "bell cow" system so Tank will probably get plenty of carries as well. Etienne will score some Tds from distance, but that's the hard way and not consistent. I foresee lots of games with 2-3 rec and 70 total yards.

[Ray_T 740]

2 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I like your other picks (Akers achilles worries me, but he's drafted late so whatever).

But let's talk Etienne at Rb 10... I think he's gonna be hard pressed to finish even close to that high. Last year he had 23 carries inside the 10 yard line, only scored 4 times. He's just not built to be a goal line back which why the Jags spent a 3rd rd pick on Tank Bigsby. Then there's Lawrence who can Qb sneak or run a few too. So without goal line work, drafters are hoping for lots of receptions. But Etienne only had 35 last year and now Ridley's in town. Also Jags coach has never utilized a "bell cow" system so Tank will probably get plenty of carries as well. Etienne will score some Tds from distance, but that's the hard way and not consistent. I foresee lots of games with 2-3 rec and 70 total yards.

ok I'm about to go on the road.  got a 3 hour drive to make it on time for my next auction.

I'd counter with this:

an Achilles is very much like an ACL injury.  you can come back in 12 months but you are not likely 100% until the 18 or 20 month mark.   it is also possible the team didnt utilize his full skillset last year for this very reason.    I think he has a positive TD regression this year.  Not a huge one but I think he gets more TD than last year.     The other thing to consider is this team is just starting to win.  first half of last year they were not very good and second half they were bordering on very good.

the RB stats tend to indicate how the team is doing as a whole.   there are exceptions but RB's on losing teams typically dont do as well.   To this end, I think there is some upside here.   that said, I was looking at FFtoday rankings (I think he was ranked #16 or something)and assumed hes undervalued.   I didnt bother to check his ADP and I should have.   at an ADP of RB10 hes not as undervalued as I thought.   so at that ADP, hes probably pretty close to where he should be.

so accept my apologies.    I punched in a quick list and didnt do as much due diligence as I should have for the guy at the top of the list.

[GobbleDog 981]

14 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

an Achilles is very much like an ACL injury.

I don't know about that. There's lots of Rbs who suffered an acl and went on to have great careers. Occasionally, they play great the following year (rare) - ie Peterson, Jamaal Charles.

Here's the high-water mark for Rb's who suffered an achilles - Donte Foreman. Torn in late 2017. Five years later in 2022 Foreman finally had the best season of his entire career in Carolina... 914 yds, 5 Tds.  Achilles is the grim reaper for Rbs.

[Ray_T 740]

2 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I don't know about that. There's lots of Rbs who suffered an acl and went on to have great careers. Occasionally, they play great the following year (rare) - ie Peterson, Jamaal Charles.

Here's the high-water mark for Rb's who suffered an achilles - Donte Foreman. Torn in late 2017. Five years later in 2022 Foreman finally had the best season of his entire career in Carolina... 914 yds, 5 Tds.  Achilles is the grim reaper for Rbs.

I meant it is similar in that people rarely are fully healed in 12 months.   I avoided this guy like the plague last year for the very reason you just mentioned.  I"m aware of the stats.

this seems to be different.   its hard to say he cant perform when he put up an 1100 yard season the very year after his surgery.   granted he could be a half step slower than he was prior to the injury, but he was REALLY effing fast and still looked fast in the one game I watched.

so its really tough to use the Achilles as a reason to avoid.   if the injury still affects him, it did last year too.    another year removed from the injury this should be better.

the one thing I will say is in keeper/dynasty his value should be down because I do think this still shortens his career.   he will likely be more prone to soft tissue injures (just like the aftermath of an ACL injury)

its food for thought.     if the ADP matched fftodays ranking at 16 I would have targeted him all day long.   but at 10, its iffy.   likely there is still value there but I'd prefer to target a guy like Kenneth Walker.

[GobbleDog 981]

Just now, Ray_T said:

this seems to be different.   its hard to say he cant perform when he put up an 1100 yard season the very year after his surgery.   granted he could be a half step slower than he was prior to the injury, but he was REALLY effing fast and still looked fast in the one game I watched.

Akers did look GREAT down the stretch last year. I'm as interested as everyone to see if he becomes the first Rb to break the achilles curse. We shall see. Though Kupp's injury certainly won't help his chances.

[weepaws 3,152]

17 hours ago, RareN64Dream said:

Who is WR- J. Dobson?

I apologize, it’s J Dotson.  

[weepaws 3,152]

4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

my all value team.

 

QB        Rodgers/Goff   and Love/purdy/Carr as QB2 (if needed)

RB      Walker, Etienne, Pierce, Dobbins, Akers, Pacheco   (lots of value at RB but you will likely only be able to get 2-3 of these)

WR   Hopkins, Cooks, Ridley (though ADP has fallen so not as good a value as he was early in the year), Courtland Sutton, Aiyuk, Evans, Jakobi Meyers

TE  Higbee, Juwan Johnson, LaPorta, Dulcich, Everett

I don’t think Walker at his current ADP is a value, Charbonnet is going to be a big factor    

[GobbleDog 981]

18 hours ago, weepaws said:

I don’t think Walker at his current ADP is a value, Charbonnet is going to be a big factor    

Pete Carrol once started the season benching his #1 draft pick (Penny) and instead going with his 7th rd pick (Carson). Most coaches would automatically start the top pick just to save face. Carrol doesn't care about anything except production.

We'll soon find out which one impresses the most and I have no idea which one. Heck, Carrol could pull a guy off the practice squad and start him.

[polecatt 474]

QB- Anthony Richardson, I think he is gonna be an excellent fantasy QB. By the end of the season he will be a lock in as your starter

RB- Jamal Williams, Latavious Murray would always shine when Kamara was out. I think Williams will take over that role and then some. He'll be a RB2/flex any week and RB1 if Kamara is out.

WR- Sky Moore, he's supposed to be the main slot WR in KC. If that's true, he could have a huge break out season, even a top 10

TE- David Njoku, can he finally break out? Watson may take a liking to his talented TE. Njoku could be a top 5 with double digit TDs

[weepaws 3,152]

Have a real tough time trusting Richardson, I think he’s going to be a horrible nfl Qb,  I said after the draft that he would named the week one starter, when other said that it would be Minshew, I think Minshew will be the Colts week four starter.  

[Ray_T 740]

16 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Pete Carrol once started the season benching his #1 draft pick (Penny) and instead going with his 7th rd pick (Carson). Most coaches would automatically start the top pick just to save face. Carrol doesn't care about anything except production.

well, in case you didnt notice Penny wasnt THAT good. he has shown flashes but nothing sustained.    it was rumoured he was gonna be cut in his new home.

Walker is at another level.    Hes a really good player.

that said, I think the cat is out of the bag.   at my auction there was a bidding war for his services.   as its a 12 team keeper league there were 10 kept RB's but he and Bijan got the 2 highest auction values.   and no other RB was even close.     That said this league is pretty competitive with a lot of astute gm's.   it wont be like that across the board.

[Gepetto 1,288]

Well that's an incorrect statement about Penny. 

Fact: Rashaad Penny has the most career rushing yards per attempt by a running back with 300+ carries, with 5.7 per attempt. IN ALL OF NFL HISTORY!

[show me the murray 49]

14 hours ago, weepaws said:

Have a real tough time trusting Richardson, I think he’s going to be a horrible nfl Qb,  I said after the draft that he would named the week one starter, when other said that it would be Minshew, I think Minshew will be the Colts week four starter.  

I don’t know about that. I could see him starting out like Fields, not a great real-life QB but the rushing keeps him viable with potential for some huge boom weeks. I imagine he’s better as a passer early than Fields too. 

As for Minshew starting week 4, only chance of that is an injury IMO. They invested a #4 pick in AR and you don’t shatter his confidence by benching him. If they thought he wasn’t ready Minshew was the perfect get-out to sit him until around weeks 6-8

 

[weepaws 3,152]

1 hour ago, show me the murray said:

I don’t know about that. I could see him starting out like Fields, not a great real-life QB but the rushing keeps him viable with potential for some huge boom weeks. I imagine he’s better as a passer early than Fields too. 

As for Minshew starting week 4, only chance of that is an injury IMO. They invested a #4 pick in AR and you don’t shatter his confidence by benching him. If they thought he wasn’t ready Minshew was the perfect get-out to sit him until around weeks 6-8

 

Minshew is the reason why I knew that Richardson won the job on draft day.  Think they start out slow losing a lot 0-3/0-4 and in comes Minshew for a few games.  And if that happens and that hurts his confidence then he needs to find a new job.  

[Ray_T 740]

1 hour ago, show me the murray said:

I don’t know about that. I could see him starting out like Fields, not a great real-life QB but the rushing keeps him viable with potential for some huge boom weeks. I imagine he’s better as a passer early than Fields too. 

As for Minshew starting week 4, only chance of that is an injury IMO. They invested a #4 pick in AR and you don’t shatter his confidence by benching him. If they thought he wasn’t ready Minshew was the perfect get-out to sit him until around weeks 6-8

 

I dont know.... Aaron Rodgers sat and learned.   he turned out fine.   lots of teams sit their rookie for half the season before throwing them to the wolves.   its not an unprecedented move.  This is supposed to be a starting QB who will lead your team for the next decade.   You would hope they'd be tough enough that this would not shatter their confidence.

you know what would shatter their confidence more?   having defenses have their way on the field while your QB is drowning.

just food for your thoughts.

this is why I think its important to wait until the QB is actually ready before throwing them in there.    if they are not ready, it can be rough.

[show me the murray 49]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Minshew is the reason why I knew that Richardson won the job on draft day.  Think they start out slow losing a lot 0-3/0-4 and in comes Minshew for a few games.  And if that happens and that hurts his confidence then he needs to find a new job.  

I don’t see how that makes sense. 

In Minshew you have a guy with starting experience and charisma who fans could get behind starting a handful of games and who could keep you competitive. Would have been so easy for the Colts to sit Richardson. Clearly they must feel he’s ready. 

[Ray_T 740]

30 minutes ago, show me the murray said:

I don’t see how that makes sense. 

In Minshew you have a guy with starting experience and charisma who fans could get behind starting a handful of games and who could keep you competitive. Would have been so easy for the Colts to sit Richardson. Clearly they must feel he’s ready. 

this is the only explanation I can think of.

but this is a case for the first year or so he will be a far better fantasy QB than he will be an actual QB.

if he gets 80-100 yards a game, that will make up for his lack of passing.

a stat line of 200 yards passing with 1 TD combined with 60-90 yards rushing and possibly 1 rushing TD (hit or miss on the TD) should be what you expect from this guy

[show me the murray 49]

Think I saw a stat that since 2010, 16 QBs have run for more than 700 yards in a season (that’s only 41 ish yards per game in a 17-game season), and only Daniel Jones failed to get 20 pts a game (he got 19.9). However raw AR is I feel if the rushing is there it’s a solid floor with huge breakout potential. 

[weepaws 3,152]

I think his rushing is great for ff, I questioned his ability in the passing game, and if the Colts come out flat first few game, i for one wouldn’t be surprised if the owner put in his request for a change to try to win.  

[nobody 2,557]

I think Tua is undervalued.  Sure if he gets another concussion, he may be out for the year, but if you grab Rodgers, you'll have it covered with a capable backup.

[weepaws 3,152]

Unless Tua suffers another concussion week one , then his owners will be screaming, never again, so his value becomes trash.  

[nobody 2,557]

So what if he has a concussion in week 1.  You can get him in the 10th round.

[Ray_T 740]

4 minutes ago, show me the murray said:

Think I saw a stat that since 2010, 16 QBs have run for more than 700 yards in a season (that’s only 41 ish yards per game in a 17-game season), and only Daniel Jones failed to get 20 pts a game (he got 19.9). However raw AR is I feel if the rushing is there it’s a solid floor with huge breakout potential. 

the issue with him will be wins and losses.  fantasy points wise he should be ok.   the real risk is if he gets benched

[GobbleDog 981]

1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

the issue with him will be wins and losses.  fantasy points wise he should be ok.   the real risk is if he gets benched

Giants just signed Jones to a 4-year $160 mil contract, so he'd have to be incredibly bad to get benched.

[Gepetto 1,288]

I was able to draft J Dotson and Kenneth Walker and Jordan Love cheap in my auction league as well as Swift and Penny who were basically free, and added Higbee as well for a very low price. I got Rashod Bateman for $1 and I think he's the WR1 in Baltimore. 

 Just missed K Toney and K Herbert and Mostert who I wanted; they went cheap too but it was late in the draft and I was just short of money.

[weepaws 3,152]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Giants just signed Jones to a 4-year $160 mil contract, so he'd have to be incredibly bad to get benched.

I think he was talking about Richardson.  

[weepaws 3,152]

I’m not so sure that the Ravens will have of their three WRs became their WRs 1. 

[GobbleDog 981]

22 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think he was talking about Richardson.  

oops

[Gepetto 1,288]

28 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I’m not so sure that the Ravens will have of their three WRs became their WRs 1. 

You could be right. Bateman was just a player I liked who I was able to fill out my deep bench with.

Doesn't matter if he pans out or not as my WRs (in ppr)  in $1,000 salary auction: 

Start 3 WRs, 2 flex

WR    Tyreek Hill              $105 Keeper (drafted previous year)

WR    Ja'Maar Chase      $200

WR    Christian Watson    $73

WR    DJ Moore                  $49

WR    Jahan Dotson           $19

WR    Rashod Bateman        $1

WR    Romeo Doubs              $1

WR    Darius Slayton              $1

 

[weepaws 3,152]

48 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

You could be right. Bateman was just a player I liked who I was able to fill out my deep bench with.

Doesn't matter if he pans out or not as my WRs (in ppr)  in $1,000 salary auction: 

Start 3 WRs, 2 flex

WR    Tyreek Hill              $105 Keeper (drafted previous year)

WR    Ja'Maar Chase      $200

WR    Christian Watson    $73

WR    DJ Moore                  $49

WR    Jahan Dotson           $19

WR    Rashod Bateman        $1

WR    Romeo Doubs              $1

WR    Darius Slayton              $1

 

Agreed.