Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

[thegeneral 3,100]

Just now, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

Well, we certainly don't think of thegeneralretard either, so....

Now here is a funny character

[EternalShinyAndChrome 4,002]

Just now, thegeneral said:

Now here is a funny character

wurd.

[Mark Davis 380]

Seems like some of the betting market shifts came from some internal polling.  The one bit of news that got me to looking deeper into that was Cook Political shifting the WI Senate race from Lean D to Toss Up.  I had written that off for Baldwin, and she still appears ahead, but what appeared to be an easy blue seat is getting tight.  Apparently from some of the notes there are internal polls among the 3 critical MW states that are trending Trump's way as of late.  That doesn't mean the momentum stays, but both sides internals seem to suggest he has gained ground in all 3 in the recent internals.

[seafoam1 2,913]

2 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

Seems like some of the betting market shifts came from some internal polling.  The one bit of news that got me to looking deeper into that was Cook Political shifting the WI Senate race from Lean D to Toss Up.  I had written that off for Baldwin, and she still appears ahead, but what appeared to be an easy blue seat is getting tight.  Apparently from some of the notes there are internal polls among the 3 critical MW states that are trending Trump's way as of late.  That doesn't mean the momentum stays, but both sides internals seem to suggest he has gained ground in all 3 in the recent internals.

Betting market is a whole other animal than the political sites. 

[Mark Davis 380]

Just now, seafoam1 said:

Betting market is a whole other animal than the political sites. 

Sure, but people see those polls before they get public.  It's like a line moving a bit before an injury gets released for a football game.  It explains a lot of what happened that didn't correlate with the polls.  Now all of a sudden, it lines up.

[seafoam1 2,913]

4 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

Sure, but people see those polls before they get public.  It's like a line moving a bit before an injury gets released for a football game.  It explains a lot of what happened that didn't correlate with the polls.  Now all of a sudden, it lines up.

Pinnacle is the site to watch early. They are talented and plugged in. I compare my book against theirs early in the week and bet based on what odds I get vs. theirs. 

[Horseman 2,438]

1 hour ago, The Real timschochet said:

 it does suggest that nothing happened between last week and this week that changed anyone’s opinions. 
 

it’s hard to see what might happen over the next 4 weeks that will change the numbers.

Just this week the Harris administration got hammered on response to the hurricane and Trump returned to Butler PA.   PA flipped to Trump in the polls and he's now the betting favorite everywhere.  

A blind face pony soldier could see that a lot has happened this week. 

 

[Reality 3,121]

Tough spot for Democrats, they see the writing on the wall. Incredibly weak candidate who only exposes herself further when taking interviews. She has no real stance on most issues, flip flops more than John Kerry and admitted she'd not do a single thing different than Biden, yet, she's the 'candidate for change'...

The media is running cover the best they can but, even they are starting to panic. 

I think most normal folks are seeing through the charade and their internal polling proves it. Should be an interesting 3 weeks. Run and hide, or keep exposing her, campaign has some tough choices to make...

[Mark Davis 380]

Nevada finally reverting to normal.  I had a hard time believing it was as likely R as it was polling.  Of the seven swing states, NV is the one I think Harris is strongest in.

[The Real timschochet 6,585]

2 hours ago, Reality said:

Tough spot for Democrats, they see the writing on the wall. Incredibly weak candidate who only exposes herself further when taking interviews. She has no real stance on most issues, flip flops more than John Kerry and admitted she'd not do a single thing different than Biden, yet, she's the 'candidate for change'...

The media is running cover the best they can but, even they are starting to panic. 

I think most normal folks are seeing through the charade and their internal polling proves it. Should be an interesting 3 weeks. Run and hide, or keep exposing her, campaign has some tough choices to make...

This is hilarious. Are all of you guys watching the same Fox show? Because this narrative you’re all repeating is pretty out there. 

This election is still tight but Kamala is still winning. She’s still ahead in most polls, still has momentum. And her media blitz is largely working. Doesn’t mean she will win but I’d still rather be her than Trump right now. 

[jerryskids 6,705]

3 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

This is hilarious. Are all of you guys watching the same Fox show? Because this narrative you’re all repeating is pretty out there. 

This election is still tight but Kamala is still winning. She’s still ahead in most polls, still has momentum. And her media blitz is largely working. Doesn’t mean she will win but I’d still rather be her than Trump right now. 

What specifically of what he said do you find inaccurate?

[seafoam1 2,913]

2 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

This is hilarious. Are all of you guys watching the same Fox show? Because this narrative you’re all repeating is pretty out there. 

This election is still tight but Kamala is still winning. She’s still ahead in most polls, still has momentum. And her media blitz is largely working. Doesn’t mean she will win but I’d still rather be her than Trump right now. 

So you think the kameltoe is going to win? I can't wait to hear your prediction. 

[Horseman 2,438]

14 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

This is hilarious. Are all of you guys watching the same Fox show? Because this narrative you’re all repeating is pretty out there. 

This election is still tight but Kamala is still winning. She’s still ahead in most polls, still has momentum. And her media blitz is largely working. Doesn’t mean she will win but I’d still rather be her than Trump right now. 

Still doesn't understand the definition of momentum. Actually he does, he's just lying again. 

Odds went from -135 Kackala to -120 Trump. That's Trump momentum.  

[BrahmaBulls 646]

4 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Still doesn't understand the definition of momentum. Actually he does, he's just lying again. 

Odds went from -135 Kackala to -120 Trump. That's Trump momentum.  

He just posts all the nonsense in his head hoping it will come true.  It's why he's 3K lighter in the wallet and why most of his predictions are wrong.  He never learns because he's incapable of just shutting up.  

[Horseman 2,438]

Trump wins PA. -130.  

Trumpmentum 

[Horseman 2,438]

Arizona -225

Georgia -215

N Carolina -175

That's a wrap folks. 

Michigan and Nevada Tump +110, Wisconsin even money. Kamala gets any worse and it's going to be a Wipeout.   

[The Real timschochet 6,585]

43 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

What specifically of what he said do you find inaccurate?

That Democrats see the writing on the wall? Among other things. 

As I wrote, Kamala is still the favorite. 
 

ETA not the betting favorite- polling favorite. At the moment. 

[Beaker15 236]

2 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

That Democrats see the writing on the wall? Among other things. 

As I wrote, Kamala is still the favorite. 

This simply isn't true

[Mark Davis 380]

52 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

This is hilarious. Are all of you guys watching the same Fox show? Because this narrative you’re all repeating is pretty out there. 

This election is still tight but Kamala is still winning. She’s still ahead in most polls, still has momentum. And her media blitz is largely working. Doesn’t mean she will win but I’d still rather be her than Trump right now. 

I'm getting some of mine from what Mark Halperin is writing.  He was pretty tied in on the timing of Biden's withdrawal.  If Halperin's comments on momentum aren't clear or you discount him for some reason, Cook Political has made some shifts, most notably WI Senate.  These things don't occur in a vacuum. 

Harris may well still win, probably 10 days ago I'd have said slightly more likely than not to win.  Today I think momentum has shifted and now Trump is slightly more likely than not based on the direction of things.  

[seafoam1 2,913]

10 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

That Democrats see the writing on the wall? Among other things. 

As I wrote, Kamala is still the favorite. 
 

ETA not the betting favorite- polling favorite. At the moment. 

You should bet on it. Like you did you buddy creepy Joe. 

[The Real timschochet 6,585]

10 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

I'm getting some of mine from what Mark Halperin is writing.  He was pretty tied in on the timing of Biden's withdrawal.  If Halperin's comments on momentum aren't clear or you discount him for some reason, Cook Political has made some shifts, most notably WI Senate.  These things don't occur in a vacuum. 

Harris may well still win, probably 10 days ago I'd have said slightly more likely than not to win.  Today I think momentum has shifted and now Trump is slightly more likely than not based on the direction of things.  

Who does Mark Halperin work for these days? Oh yeah. Newsmax. 

[The Real timschochet 6,585]

11 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

 

Harris may well still win, probably 10 days ago I'd have said slightly more likely than not to win.  Today I think momentum has shifted and now Trump is slightly more likely than not based on the direction of things.  

You could be right. To be fair, if I say Harris has a 52% chance of winning, and you say Trump has a 52% chance of winning, what are we really arguing about? 

[Mark Davis 380]

1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

Who does Mark Halperin work for these days? Oh yeah. Newsmax. 

You can dismiss him.  Feel like Cook Political is in the bag for the Rs as well?

[seafoam1 2,913]

6 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

You could be right. To be fair, if I say Harris has a 52% chance of winning, and you say Trump has a 52% chance of winning, what are we really arguing about? 

Why you keep posting the same shlt over and over again for months on end. 

[Mark Davis 380]

7 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

You could be right. To be fair, if I say Harris has a 52% chance of winning, and you say Trump has a 52% chance of winning, what are we really arguing about? 

In a one run scenario, kind of.  However if you could give me a 52/48 edge, I'd do nothing but play that hand of cards every waking hour for the rest of my life.  I used to be a card counter so even 55/45 feels significant.  I've bet a lot on much less.  But for sure we are talking about a one time event so these are minute shifts.  The question is does the movement continue in the direction it's going or does it stop?  Harris had it for a long time after the Biden withdrawal, but it feels like she's peaked and it's drifting back.  Statistically so at least.  But really all that matters are those 7 states, and moreso 6 states because the way the math works in most scenarios NV is never a tipping point state.

[seafoam1 2,913]

3 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

In a one run scenario, kind of.  However if you could give me a 52/48 edge, I'd do nothing but play that hand of cards every waking hour for the rest of my life.  I used to be a card counter so even 55/45 feels significant.  I've bet a lot on much less.  But for sure we are talking about a one time event so these are minute shifts.  The question is does the movement continue in the direction it's going or does it stop.  Harris had it for a long time after the Biden withdrawal, but it feels like she's peaked and it's drifting back.  Statistically so at least.

Card counters are easy to spot and in casinos they get the boot, and in private games they get hurt. That's if big money is on the line. 

[Mark Davis 380]

Just now, seafoam1 said:

Card counters are easy to spot and in casinos they get the boot, and in private games they get hurt. 

I managed to do it for about 10 years before ever having an issue.  I personally don't know of any private blackjack games.

[The Real timschochet 6,585]

10 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

In a one run scenario, kind of.  However if you could give me a 52/48 edge, I'd do nothing but play that hand of cards every waking hour for the rest of my life.  I used to be a card counter so even 55/45 feels significant.  I've bet a lot on much less.  But for sure we are talking about a one time event so these are minute shifts.  The question is does the movement continue in the direction it's going or does it stop?  Harris had it for a long time after the Biden withdrawal, but it feels like she's peaked and it's drifting back.  Statistically so at least.  But really all that matters are those 7 states, and moreso 6 states because the way the math works in most scenarios NV is never a tipping point state.

You make good points. It may be that the tide has turned in Trump’s favor. Perhaps I’m paying too much attention to the national polls, and Silver, and not enough to the latest battleground polls and betting odds. Could be. Time will tell. 

[seafoam1 2,913]

8 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

I managed to do it for about 10 years before ever having an issue.  I personally don't know of any private blackjack games.

In Hartford they had backroom blackjack all the time in sketchy people's homes. . But no matter. If you follow the betting patterns and know how to count cards yourself, which casinos know how to do (I did that job for a couple years), you get the boot before you make big bucks. It's not really fair, but it's their business I guess. 

[The Real timschochet 6,585]

Just now, seafoam1 said:

In Hartford they had backroom blackjack all the time. But no matter. If you follow the betting patterns and know how to count cards yourself, which casinos know how to do (I did that job for a couple years), you get the boot before you make big bucks. It's not really fair, but it's their business I guess. 

Honest question because I know nothing about this: if you’re a good actor and your face is blank how can they tell that you’re counting cards? Simply by the bets you make? 

[Mark Davis 380]

1 minute ago, seafoam1 said:

In Hartford they had backroom blackjack all the time. But no matter. If you follow the betting patterns and know how to count cards yourself, which casinos know how to do (I did that job for a couple years), you get the boot before you make big bucks. It's not really fair, but it's their business I guess. 

It was all good with me.  I wasn't making crazy money at it, just trying to pay for trips and pick up a little cash.  My couple run ins with casinos weren't of the particularly aggressive ones.  That's not to say it didn't shake me a bit the first time it happened.  When someone approaches you from behind and stands you up from a stool and calls you by your name, you spin around and some big dude in a suit is there flanked by security guards, it's a little unnerving.

[Mark Davis 380]

2 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Honest question because I know nothing about this: if you’re a good actor and your face is blank how can they tell that you’re counting cards? Simply by the bets you make? 

Yes.  I can count cards.  If a casino hired me in security, I could watch the camera and count the table.  If every time I would increase my bet I see that you do, every time I would lower my bet I see that you do, I know what you are doing.  It has nothing to do with whether you are winning or losing at that moment in time.

For me the math was always the easy part.  The hardest learning curve was carrying on conversations with others at the table, the dealer, the waitress, and not appearing focused on the cards, all the while having a meticulous count.  It also is MUCH easier to do as a younger person.  I try it now and then now when I am around it, and I lose focus at 50 much easier than in my 20's where I could count all night without sleep.

[seafoam1 2,913]

11 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Honest question because I know nothing about this: if you’re a good actor and your face is blank how can they tell that you’re counting cards? Simply by the bets you make? 

It's not about the face, they do that stupid crap in poker, it's about your betting pattern. In a way, it's like getting answers correct on a math test without showing your work. The teachers say nuh uh. 

[seafoam1 2,913]

7 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

It was all good with me.  I wasn't making crazy money at it, just trying to pay for trips and pick up a little cash.  My couple run ins with casinos weren't of the particularly aggressive ones.  That's not to say it didn't shake me a bit the first time it happened.  When someone approaches you from behind and stands you up from a stool and calls you by your name, you spin around and some big dude in a suit is there flanked by security guards, it's a little unnerving.

Yeah. It's a nasty racket. If I ever go to a casino, I choose to have drunk fun and play roulette. I play all on how I react to the board history. Sometimes I lose, sometimes I win, but I always have fun as long as there are 3-5 people playing at the same table. No more, no less. No more only because it's too crowded. 

[seafoam1 2,913]

I hate hate hate playing next to people who get pissed when they lose. It means they can't afford it. 

[The Real timschochet 6,585]

Interesting. 
 

Well back to the point: as a Harris supporter I’d rather be at 52% than 48% but I don’t feel too good about either. Silver has Harris currently at 55% so I’ll take that. I guess. Silver had Hillary at 75%.

[The Real timschochet 6,585]

The last time I played blackjack (about 3 months ago) I won $500. That never happens to me. Normally I lose around $200 and then quit. But I have no idea what I’m doing beyond the most basic advice everybody knows. 

[seafoam1 2,913]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

Interesting. 
 

Well back to the point: as a Harris supporter I’d rather be at 52% than 48% but I don’t feel too good about either. Silver has Harris currently at 55% so I’ll take that. I guess. Silver had Hillary at 75%.

Hey good luck man. I have no idea who's gonna win. I guess by 4am on the day after the election we'll know the winner. Just like 2020. 

[Mark Davis 380]

5 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Yeah. It's a nasty racket. If I ever go to a casino, I choose to have drunk fun and play roulette. I play all on how I react to the board history. Sometimes I lose, sometimes I win, but I always have fun as long as there are 3-5 people playing at the same table. No more, no less. No more only because it's too crowded. 

One last post and then I'll get off the side track.  It's also MUCH harder to do in current days because unless you are in a high limit room, most casinos especially in Las Vegas are 6:5 payouts on blackjack.  If you do that and restrict what I can split and double, they'll let me count all day because I can't beat that game.  You have to find a 3:2 table.  The tourists have no idea how much that change made to their odds.  At first it was single deck games that went to 6:5, now you just can't find any game other than high limit double deck.  And of course in the high limit game you have all eyes on you and every move.  So if you want to count today, best of luck.  Harder odds, and as you said earlier, watchful eyes.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,308]

1 hour ago, The Real timschochet said:

This is hilarious. Are all of you guys watching the same Fox show? Because this narrative you’re all repeating is pretty out there. 

This election is still tight but Kamala is still winning. She’s still ahead in most polls, still has momentum. And her media blitz is largely working. Doesn’t mean she will win but I’d still rather be her than Trump right now. 

Of course you would. You’d much rather be a woman than the cuck male you are