MDC’s early fantasy football sleepers and busts

[MDC 7,431]

All ADPs from FantasyPros:

QB sleeper: Jayden Daniels (108). Decent weapons at receiver but it’s the rushing upside that could make JD a low end QB1, great value for a player going in rounds 9-11. I think he’s a terrific upside pick for teams who wait on QB and draft a backup with upside.

QB bust: CJ Stroud (46). He will probably throw for 4,200+ and over 30 TDs, but he offers no rushing upside and seems like a bad value compared to QBs like Love, Murray, Purdy etc. who will all go several rounds later. 

RB sleeper: Zamir White (78). Raiders absolutely fed White down the stretch and did nothing but bring in Alexander Mattison, who sucks. White is basically assured of 250+ touches and could put up RB2 type numbers, great value for a RB going in the rounds 7-8 range.

RB bust: Josh Jacobs (23). I can’t say why a guy coming off an injury riddled year with only 800 or so rushing yards is being drafted as a late 2nd / early 3rd round pick ahead of better options like Henry and Cook, but he won’t be on any of my teams.

WR sleeper: Malik Nabors (53). He’ll be drafted 4-5 rounds after Harrison Jr. but he’s nearly as good and on a team with even fewer weapons and less competition for targets. I doubt he scores more than 7-8 TDs at the high end but he’ll get peppered with targets and 70-80 catches plus 1.100 yards is a definite possibility. 

WR bust: Chris Olave (20). He’s probably a great NFL receiver but this is way too rich for my blood. Nothing much has changed in NO to make me think he’ll put up much more than 1,100-1,200 yards and 7-8 TDs at the high end, the same production you can expect from Aiyuk, Devonta and Waddle 1-2 rounds later.

TE sleeper: Jake Ferguson (98). Hard to pick a sleeper at such a loaded position this year, but if you dont draft a Top 4 TE (Kelce, Andrew’s, LaPorta or McBride) you may as well wait for Ferguson in rounds 9-10. He quietly had an excellent first year as a full time starter and the Cowboys still can’t run the ball and don’t have much at receiver other than CeeDee.

TE bust: Kyle Pitts (64) of course. Based on one good year people are really taking him in Rounds 6-8 as TE6? The 4-5 TEs immediately after Pitts will all return better numbers at a cheaper price. I’d guess he’s not even a Top 12 TE again. Of fantasy managers thought Cousins would make such a big impact he would’ve be QB17 going off the board at 110. Hard pass.

[BeenHereBefore 1,525]

My sleeper picks

QB Steve McNair

RB OJ Simpson

WR Chris Henry

[Pimpadeaux 2,406]

RB Najee Harris. They're going to give him an old-school Steelers RB workload this year. He put up big fantasy numbers the last three games, foreshadowing what's to come this year.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

13 minutes ago, Pimpadeaux said:

RB Najee Harris. They're going to give him an old-school Steelers RB workload this year. He put up big fantasy numbers the last three games, foreshadowing what's to come this year.

He looked like he was running in cement the first half of last year

[jerryskids 6,799]

16 minutes ago, Pimpadeaux said:

RB Najee Harris. They're going to give him an old-school Steelers RB workload this year. He put up big fantasy numbers the last three games, foreshadowing what's to come this year.

I've heard Najee has slimmed down with a much healthier diet.  Probably good, but hard to say.  

I wonder what the Soilost thinks?  

[SUXBNME 1,503]

Harris? No way.  Warren is going to out perform Harris in a PPR league by a bunch.  (imo)

TE Sleeper - I don't know if one could really call him a sleeper, but Evan Engram.  TE bust? Mark Andrews (vs ADP)

[Pimpadeaux 2,406]

2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

He looked like he was running in cement the first half of last year

But not the last three games, and they're going to give him a monster work load this year.

[Pimpadeaux 2,406]

Dallas has a running-back problem, and Elliot is not the answer, and they made no free-agent moves.

Deuce Vaughan was a crazy good back at KSU.

Not necessarily a sleeper pick, but maybe a deep, deep, deep sleeper pick. 

Someone has to be the lead back in that offense.

[listen2me 23 1,873]

Can't aay ive thought much about it.  But off what I know.

Packers spread it around.   You are only looking for upsise kater in a strong offense.  Keep an eye on Wicks.  

Bills same sort of thing but seems mkre clear.  They will force it to Kincaid but Brady wasnt using him down field.  That would totally change as he took over mid season.  But more so you may be abke to find a boom sort of guy late in Shakir or Samuel.  They will spread it around but someone has to have high upside when Allen will have some huge games.   

I can probably agree on Jacobs.   I think there is some upside there but realistically he probably misses some games and is much less safe than the player you mentioned.  In dynasty leagues keep an eye out for Lloyd.  Jacobs is basically a rental.  

[Pimpadeaux 2,406]

One player I will avoid is Achane. Sure, he's insane when healthy, but he sure gets dinged up easily. I expect more of the same this year. 

[Mike Honcho 5,283]

16 hours ago, MDC said:

RB bust: Josh Jacobs (23). I can’t say why a guy coming off an injury riddled year with only 800 or so rushing yards is being drafted as a late 2nd / early 3rd round pick ahead of better options like Henry and Cook, but he won’t be on any of my teams.

  

[Hardcore troubadour 15,439]

I’m liking Trey McBride

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,351]

not a bad list, I tend to agree with most, especially when you factor value

Olave is going around guys like Davante and Evans, I will take the vets all day

I think Stroud is top 3 in 6 pt passing but around 8 in 4 pt