2024 Top 10 Rbs - let's discuss

[giraldi02 474]

I don't necessarily believe they'll finish the season as top-10 RBs, but there's a few darts right now that wouldn't surprise me at all if they were in the mix as high-end RB2's or RB1s:

D'Andre Swift (RB22) - Training camp will be interesting to follow to see how involved Herbert and Roschon are.
Zack Moss (RB27) - Probably the most egregious ADP right now. My guess is by the time Labor Day hits his ADP is significantly higher. A best-ball draft target for sure in May/June/July for me.
Gus Edwards (RB40) - Harbaugh loves running the rock. Someone to keep an eye on is also rookie Kimani Vidal. But someone from the Chargers backfield is going to get more run than the others.
Kendre Miller (RB45) - Injury plagued rookie season. Kamara is another year older. 
Rico Dowdle (RB50) - Zeke lmao
 

[GobbleDog 976]

On 6/5/2024 at 2:46 PM, giraldi02 said:

Someone to keep an eye on is also rookie Kimani Vidal.

The kid from Troy is a walking bowling ball and Harbaugh personally drafted him. I have little faith in Edwards or Dobbins.  Vidal might not get much early, but by mid-season, after Edwards or Dobbins get hurt again or just flat out disappoint.. again.... Vidal time baby!

He's been available with the last pick of every mock I've done so far ... and I've done way more than I care to admit.

[weepaws 3,151]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

well, it looks like they could have shortened that up by 75% and the article would be just as useful.

important takeaway is he has a lower body injury at the moment.

given he came back from an ACL injury, not entirely surprising.   you are usually a bit more prone to the soft tissue injuries once you have your ACL reconstructed.

B Allen should be the number one back rb on the Jets might be worthy of a late rd pickup. 

[IGotWorms 4,057]

There are still Zack Moss truthers out there?

[Ray_T 739]

9 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

There are still Zack Moss truthers out there?

his ypc were not bad but he was playing behind a far better line than the one he will be running behind in cincy.  

he might be a volume based RB2 if he is not in a committee.   but I dont see him cracking the top 10.

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

he might be a volume based RB2 if he is not in a committee.   but I dont see him cracking the top 10.

Chase Brown is about to own that job. 

[Ray_T 739]

3 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Chase Brown is about to own that job. 

its possible.

though I think a committee of sorts is the most likely scenario.  thereby making neither back any better than an RB3

if someone wins the starting job outright, then RB2 is possible and likely

[GobbleDog 976]

1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Chase Brown is about to own that job. 

What makes ya think so?  Maybe right, but the tea leaves don't lead me to it. To be honest, I'm surprised I'm on Z. Moss. His career has been somewhat forgetable. Drafted 3rd rd by Bills in '20. Doesn't do much, but wasn't terrible (seems like no Rb does squat in Buffalo since Allen started running). Losses job to Singletary in '21, deservedly so with a 3.6 ypc on 96 car. Starts off '22 more efficient (5.4 ypc), before traded to Colts mid-season and plays decent backing up/filling in for Taylor. Does it again in '23.

Now the Bengals signed him to a 2-year $8 mil deal ($4.5 this year)... not huge, but decent. He's basically the Bengal's answer for Mixon... who as I mentioned, hasn't broken 4.1 ypc since.... 2018. Good lord. Mixon put up good fantasy numbers last year - despite bad efficiency, through pure volume.

The Bengals were obviously tired of Mixon letting him go, so why didn't they just let Brown take over and use a late round draft pick on back-up Rb or a cheap free-agent?  Why invest in Moss, if Brown was the plan?  Brown is a 5th rd pick out of Illinois who didn't turn pro until after his senior year, despite red-shirting. Makes me think the talent is limited, and the Browns don't trust him with 200+ carries.  Also - the Cowboys were interested in Moss and were going to make a similar offer, but Moss chose the Browns instead. Was it simply a little more money or did Moss see something / get promised something at Cinci?  Who knows, but the tea leaves tell me Brown isn't the one to draft this year. Moss is.

[Ray_T 739]

10 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

What makes ya think so?  Maybe right, but the tea leaves don't lead me to it. To be honest, I'm surprised I'm on Z. Moss. His career has been somewhat forgetable. Drafted 3rd rd by Bills in '20. Doesn't do much, but wasn't terrible (seems like no Rb does squat in Buffalo since Allen started running). Losses job to Singletary in '21, deservedly so with a 3.6 ypc on 96 car. Starts off '22 more efficient (5.4 ypc), before traded to Colts mid-season and plays decent backing up/filling in for Taylor. Does it again in '23.

Now the Bengals signed him to a 2-year $8 mil deal ($4.5 this year)... not huge, but decent. He's basically the Bengal's answer for Mixon... who as I mentioned, hasn't broken 4.1 ypc since.... 2018. Good lord. Mixon put up good fantasy numbers last year - despite bad efficiency, through pure volume.

The Bengals were obviously tired of Mixon letting him go, so why didn't they just let Brown take over and use a late round draft pick on back-up Rb or a cheap free-agent?  Why invest in Moss, if Brown was the plan?  Brown is a 5th rd pick out of Illinois who didn't turn pro until after his senior year, despite red-shirting. Makes me think the talent is limited, and the Browns don't trust him with 200+ carries.  Also - the Cowboys were interested in Moss and were going to make a similar offer, but Moss chose the Browns instead. Was it simply a little more money or did Moss see something / get promised something at Cinci?  Who knows, but the tea leaves tell me Brown isn't the one to draft this year. Moss is.

lots of good, valid points here. 

I am going to add a couple more.

Moss never lost the job to Singletary.   the job belonged to Singletary and moss was supposed to take it from him but he never did.   That said..... the Bills have been a team that has done a mediocre job of running the ball at best.    Their O line is decent but seems to do a far better job in pass pro than they ever did running the ball.   So even if he won the starting job, there, I dont know that I'd think that much differently about him.   I felt he and Singletary were pretty close in terms of talent.  for whatever reason the team liked Singletary better. 

Then he moves to Indy.   maybe one of the best run blocking lines in the NFL and his efficiency gets a whole lot better.   based on YPC his efficiency would suggest he could start.  and behind a good line I think he does an adequate job.

but I'm not a big believer in the line in Cincy.  they have had some issues the last couple years (partly due to injuries) but still seemed to run the ball ok most nights.   This is part of the reason why Mixons efficiency dropped as well.    

My expectation is that Moss drops to around 4 YPC which is better than his buffalo days but not as good as his Indy days.   which is ok.   

but not so good that he cannot be displaced by someone who comes in and plays well.

Is Chase Brown that guy?   I dont know.   but thats where we are at.

if his efficiency is below 4 YPC I could see the team giving brown a shot at some point regardless.   but I am with you.  if he had other options and chose to come here, it is likely because some promises were made.   so Chase brown likely has to kick that door down in order to change peoples minds.

to that end, it is likely that Moss starts off the season as the #1 guy there.   how long he holds that job depends on how he (and the team) perform.

[GobbleDog 976]

15 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

 so Chase brown likely has to kick that door down in order to change peoples minds.

Probably. Good luck Brown.

$5 mill free-agent with proven production -vs- 5th rd pick out of Illinois

Anything can happen in this crazy game, but I know which one I'd bet on.

[Ray_T 739]

Just now, GobbleDog said:

Probably. Good luck Brown.

$5 mill free-agent with proven production -vs- 5th rd pick out of Illinois

Anything can happen in this crazy game, but I know which one I'd bet on.

well, if you go by the follow the money theory, the money is on Moss.

[IGotWorms 4,057]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, if you go by the follow the money theory, the money is on Moss.

2/$8 is chump change in todays nfl. Sure RBs are cheap but still, that’s hardly much of an “investment”

[weepaws 3,151]

11 hours ago, Ray_T said:

well, it looks like they could have shortened that up by 75% and the article would be just as useful.

important takeaway is he has a lower body injury at the moment.

given he came back from an ACL injury, not entirely surprising.   you are usually a bit more prone to the soft tissue injuries once you have your ACL reconstructed.

B Allen should be the number one back rb on the Jets might be worthy of a late rd pickup. 

[weepaws 3,151]

Moss last seasons 4.3 yards per att matched his rookie season with Buffalo, his best was 4.9, but only had 93 att.  

There is no way to value Brown based on his rookie season, he did so little. 

If I had to take one of them, I would go Moss.  But an RBBC is going to be frustrating to those that own either one.  Hot hand approach during games will probably be the move for the Bengals, until on of them misses time. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

9 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Is Chase Brown that guy?   I dont know.   but thats where we are at.

Honestly it depends on who's the pass catcher. Brown was very efficient in the passing game when given the opportunity. He's explosive at times. 

If he can earn that role then I believe he'll be the RB1 there. 

[kilroy69 1,215]

Derrick Henry will be the number one overall RB this year. 1800 yards and 24 total  tds. 20 rushing, 3 receiving on designed shovel passes and a passing td on a RPO direct snap to him. 

[weepaws 3,151]

Moss is good on the passing game also, there won’t be a clear rb1, until one of them misses time. 

[Ray_T 739]

2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Moss is good on the passing game also, there won’t be a clear rb1, until one of them misses time. 

This is kind of my thought as well.   but I'm willing to keep an open mind and wait and see how camp plays out.   a lot of these questions get answered in camp.

[GobbleDog 976]

Fun stats....  Number of Rbs with 200+ carries by year:

2020 - 10

2021 - 18

2022 - 22

2023 - 23

Not the trend I expected. Among the 2023 Rbs with 200+ carries:

Javonte Williams had the fewest 20+ yd runs (2) - James Conner had the most (11) .... old guy/bad team, incredible.

James Cook had the fewest rushing Tds (2) - Raheem Mostert had the most (18)

Josh Jacobs had the lowest ypc (3.5) - Christian McCaffrey had the highest (5.4)

Five Rbs had no fumbles - Bijan Robinson had the most (4)

[Ray_T 739]

I actually think Javonte williams has an outside shot at becoming an RB1 this year.

last year he was coming off an ACL injury and still performed reasonably well.   with the ACL fully healed I wouldnt be surprised if his performance got better this year.    What I dont know is how the QB change is likely to play out.   They could run the ball a whole lot more to put less pressure on their QB.   but the concern of course is if the game script flips (as it may if they are a losing team) and that could hinder his production.

either way I dont mind taking this kid as my RB2.    I dont know where his ADP is at the moment but I suspect his price is likely reasonable.

[GobbleDog 976]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I actually think Javonte williams has an outside shot at becoming an RB1 this year.

Some say he's washed, others say it's a 4-headed timeshare, and others think he'll bounce back to old form. Numerous comments from Bronco fans on reddit complain "Williams keeps running to the back of his own blockers! No vision." Who knows... fans are idiots.

Last year Williams played 16 games and led the team in carries with 217 (closest was 76 by McLaughlin), 774 rush yds (3.6 avg), 47 rec, 4 total Tds, finished 29th among Rbs with 11.2 pt/gm. I've read (and believe) that Russel Wilson's refusal to throw over the middle or basically anywhere except deep go routes, led to a lot of stacked boxes. So that didn't help. Will Bo Nix take some pressure off? Maybe, can't get worse.  In the draft, Broncos went Qb, Lb, Wr, Cb, Rb, Wr, C (late 7th) .... so they really didn't do much for their o-line and the only Rb drafted was late 5th round - Audric Estime out of Notre Dame... a slow bruising back per scouts. The Broncos didn't sign any free-agent Rbs and the only o-line signing was a career backup. Rb depth chart:

1) Williams - not drafted by Sean Payton, so no loyalty

2) Perine - turns 29 mid-season. Last year 53 carries (4.5 avg), 50 rec, 1 total Td

3) McLaughlin - undrafted out of Youngstown St. Last year 76 carries (5.4 avg), 31 rec, 3 total Td

4) Estime - the slow rookie

There's the data - what to make of it?  The lack of bringing in new Rbs (aside from late 5th pick) leads me to believe Payton wants to stick with Williams one more year. Last week Payton said "Williams looks good. It often takes two years from that injury to regain form." The lack of o-line upgrades makes me think Peyton believes most of their offensive problems last year were mainly because of Russel Wilson. So I think we're looking at another 200+ carries and probably an increase in ypc being another year removed from the injury, as well as motivated by a contract year. I don't think there's much to fear from the Rb competition.  However.... let's be honest - the team isn't very good. Even on defense they gave up the 4th most yards last year and 5th most points.  Bo Nix reportedly doesn't have the strongest arm and the offense isn't loaded with weapons. In the end, my guess is Williams finishes around 20th... he's currently ranked 25th, so that would technically be value. Just don't see a very high ceiling, though barring injury - the floor can't be any lower than the 29th of last year.

[weepaws 3,151]

Mock drafts 12 teams I’ve been landing Ja Williams as a Rb4-5.  He has great value, I think people are afraid of McLaughlin, I’m concern about their Qb situation. But JA Williams will be another season away from his injury, I’m not see top ten , but top 15 wouldn’t surprise me. 

[Ray_T 739]

14 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Mock drafts 12 teams I’ve been landing Ja Williams as a Rb4-5.  He has great value, I think people are afraid of McLaughlin, I’m concern about their Qb situation. But JA Williams will be another season away from his injury, I’m not see top ten , but top 15 wouldn’t surprise me. 

well, if his ADP is that late, then I draft him as my RB3 and hes a fantastic insurance policy

[MDC 7,118]

6 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I actually think Javonte williams has an outside shot at becoming an RB1 this year.

I’ve had him the last 2 years so maybe I’m just bitter, but I have zero interest this year. He averaged 3.6 YPC and that O is in shambles. There are many players around his ADP I’d rather draft.

[Ray_T 739]

1 hour ago, MDC said:

I’ve had him the last 2 years so maybe I’m just bitter, but I have zero interest this year. He averaged 3.6 YPC and that O is in shambles. There are many players around his ADP I’d rather draft.

no offense, but coming off an ACL injury I was pretty sure he wasnt gonna be that good last year.   Honestly given the situation, he was actually better than I thought hed be.   I had him pegged for maybe 700 total yards.    He exceeded that total. 

Year prior he played only 4 games due to the injury. 

bad luck for you I'll admit.   but I do believe in his talent.     I'd predict more for him if I knew his QB situation was for sure gonna be average or better, but that situation is likely a coin flip so its hard to predict much more than low end RB2 production.   but if things fall right he could become a low end RB1 and one of the things he needs for this to happen is good QB play.

but add the risks (QB, bad team and possible residual injuries that sometimes come after an ACL tear) I'd say if you get him at the price of an RB3 you wont likely be disappointed.

obviously the more you pay, the less likely he lives up to expectations as those expectations rise if you draft him earlier.

[weepaws 3,151]

5 hours ago, MDC said:

I’ve had him the last 2 years so maybe I’m just bitter, but I have zero interest this year. He averaged 3.6 YPC and that O is in shambles. There are many players around his ADP I’d rather draft.

Wouldn’t have drafted last season with so much uncertainty, coming back from a major injury, now you drafted late that’s a good move, but he’s going to be better than last season, another season away from his injury. I’ll draft him late If is ADP at time holds up.  

 

[BufordT 426]

I hope my league sleeps on Tyjae Spears as much as this board has.  I don’t consider Pollard much of threat and have Spears in my top 10. 

[kilroy69 1,215]

38 minutes ago, BufordT said:

I hope my league sleeps on Tyjae Spears as much as this board has.  I don’t consider Pollard much of threat and have Spears in my top 10. 

Why would you think any Titan rb would finish in the top 10? They had one of the worst lines in football last year.

[GobbleDog 976]

5 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

Why would you think any Titan rb would finish in the top 10? They had one of the worst lines in football last year.

Feel the same - top 10 is a huge stretch.  But if I'm picking between Spears and Pollard... I'd rather have Spears who seems more explosive and elusive. 

The main problem in Tennessee is Will Levis. Good lord he stunk last year. Surprising the Titans didn't move on.  Spears and Pollard will both face stacked defenses all season daring Levis to beat them. And Tds will be scarce.

[jrokh 608]

1 minute ago, GobbleDog said:

Feel the same - top 10 is a huge stretch.  But if I'm picking between Spears and Pollard... I'd rather have Spears who seems more explosive and elusive. 

The main problem in Tennessee is Will Levis. Good lord he stunk last year. Surprising the Titans didn't move on.  Spears and Pollard will both face stacked defenses all season daring Levis to beat them. And Tds will be scarce.

Hopkins, Ridley and Boyd in place. Let Henry walk and have two pass-catching RB's. I expect Levis' numbers to jump. major sleeper...

[GobbleDog 976]

5 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I expect Levis' numbers to jump. major sleeper...

I do too. With the new offensive toys, new coach... it HAS to get better (the offense couldn't possibly get worse). But not better to the point of Spears top 10.  He's currently Rb 28. The receptions probably justify that. Everything else... (carries, yardage, Tds) is a total mystery.

[weepaws 3,151]

3 hours ago, BufordT said:

I hope my league sleeps on Tyjae Spears as much as this board has.  I don’t consider Pollard much of threat and have Spears in my top 10. 

Not a top ten. 

[weepaws 3,151]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

Hopkins, Ridley and Boyd in place. Let Henry walk and have two pass-catching RB's. I expect Levis' numbers to jump. major sleeper...

Would expect the same.  I hope owners still are sleeping, he’s going to be a very good streamer. 

[Ray_T 739]

On 6/7/2024 at 12:18 PM, BufordT said:

An over the hill Derrick Henry was top 10 last year. Spears averaged 4.5 ypc carry (along with 52 receptions) behind that same oline which should be better this year than last. Bill Callahan, who coached the Browns oline the last 4 years, is now overseeing the Titans oline.  

I wouldnt say he was over the hill.   he still passed the eye test for me.   but hes not quite as fast as he was the year prior.   but there were definitely some nights when the line did not open much in the way of holes to run through.    when the line played well, Henry performed without fail.   when the line didnt perform it was hit or miss.

that said, I fully realize the end is near.   but the slip in rush production was more a function of the decline of the line in Tenessee than it was due to Henry.

[Cloaca du jour 2,147]

Baby back

Beef

St Louis style

Short

Memphis style

McRib

Riblet

Kansas city style

Nashville style

 

I love me some ribs

 

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

On 6/5/2024 at 2:46 PM, giraldi02 said:

Kendre Miller (RB45) - Injury plagued rookie season. Kamara is another year older. 

More of a Dynasty play but I love the player. 

[kilroy69 1,215]

On 6/7/2024 at 2:18 PM, BufordT said:

An over the hill Derrick Henry was top 10 last year. Spears averaged 4.5 ypc carry (along with 52 receptions) behind that same oline which should be better this year than last. Bill Callahan, who coached the Browns oline the last 4 years, is now overseeing the Titans oline.  

 Over the hill?  Derrick henry was near the top for runs over  20 yards , top 5 in broken tackles #2 in yards after contact #2 in yards overall.  

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

39 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

 Over the hill?  Derrick henry was near the top for runs over  20 yards , top 5 in broken tackles #2 in yards after contact #2 in yards overall.  

Past production isn't a concern, we all know how running backs hit a wall around that age 30 mark. And it happens overnight. 

I think that's the concern with Henry. He's got a lot of miles on him. 

[kilroy69 1,215]

29 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Past production isn't a concern, we all know how running backs hit a wall around that age 30 mark. And it happens overnight. 

I think that's the concern with Henry. He's got a lot of miles on him. 

I understand that he is going into his age 30 season but there has literally never been anyone like King Henry. He is the only person in history to run for 2k yards in high school, college, and the NFL.  He is going into the best situation of his career. With the change in the hip drop rule bringing down the runner is going to be even harder. The ravens had 35 runs within the 5 and 60 runs within the 10 with something like 85 percent coming from the rb position. He is going to be provided more rushing attempts than any other 30 year old ever and at 6ft 3 250 he is going to put on a freaking show this year. He will not win the MVP because he is not a QB but I am betting he wins offensive player of the year with 25 total tds in an 18 season game.  22 rushing tds, 2 recieving and 1 passing. 

[Super Cubs 153]

Henry was also a product of a system.