Not at that ADP

[IGotWorms 4,057]

I don’t see this year being much different from last year for Kamara. Still PPR gold but not so much in standard scoring

[weepaws 3,158]

Kamara, based on avg per game.  Ppr=5th/ half ppr =9th. Non ppr 16th.  In my non ppr, I would take him as a rb3.  In ppr he’s a rb1.  

[wolves111 104]

Kamara: 2023- 1150 total yards, 6 tds.

Age- turns 29 this July.

Current ADP 16th rb

Doesn't sound like a #1 rb in ppr or any other format.

[GobbleDog 985]

Kamara's salary cap is $18.6 mill this year - highest on the team. It balloons to $29 mill in '25. Unless the deal is restructured, this will certainly be Kamara's final season in New Orleans.  Kamara knows this and wants a new a deal... held out of minicamp last week.

The Saints surprisingly didn't draft any Rb's, indicating they believe Miller is their future. He looked good coming back in Week 18 getting 13 carries with 5.6 ypc and a Td - Kamara was out that game. With Kamara headed out the door, they're probably going to want to kick the tires more with Miller, especially if Kamara's efficiency doesn't improve. There's a new o-coordinator in town, so it'll be interesting if Kamara keeps getting the reception volume.

[weepaws 3,158]

I wouldn’t draft Kamara as a Rb1, no need to, His value is right now a rb2.  But he sure does have rb1 return value, Like mention above , the Saints didn’t address their rb slot, happy with Miller I’m sure, but they still have Kamara, and he will be very busy in the passing game. Imo. 

[GobbleDog 985]

Wr 12 - Michael Pittman Jr. 156 tar - 109 rec, 1,152 yds and 4 Tds, finished 13th. Was 20th in '22, and 21st in '21. Entering 5th year and appears to be at the peak of skill. Coming off career best season, though with Minshew as Qb most of the season. Wr 12 implies Anthony Richardson will keep things going just as they were.

Richardson still has a lot to prove (to me anyways) passing wise only playing 2 full games last year - completion rate 56.4%, though yardage projected to 3,600 yds. Richardson only started 13 total games in college - finishing with 53.8% completion, 17 Tds / 9 Ints. And that was against some bottom dwellers - South FL, Kentucky, Vandy, E. Washington. I was surprised he went #4 overall (and I'm a Gator fan), but clearly his running game is what GM's want. Week 1 last year Pittman had 8 rec for 97 yds and a Td. Looks good, though the Td came from a behind the line of scrimmage pass which Pittman broke loose for 40 yds. In fact all 3 of Richardson's Td passes were short - other 2 were Te dump-offs. Pittman is a great Wr and Richardson is a great running Qb who might eventually be a true dual threat... but right now Wr 12 feels like a stretch.

[weepaws 3,158]

No way will Pittman give you wr1 Return this next season.  I’ll pass.  

[wolves111 104]

9 hours ago, weepaws said:

I wouldn’t draft Kamara as a Rb1, no need to, His value is right now a rb2.  But he sure does have rb1 return value, Like mention above , the Saints didn’t address their rb slot, happy with Miller I’m sure, but they still have Kamara, and he will be very busy in the passing game. Imo. 

You just posted he had #1 rb value in ppr. Which is it?

[Ray_T 740]

40 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

You just posted he had #1 rb value in ppr. Which is it?

he has more value in PPR than any other format.  dude does catch passes.

[weepaws 3,158]

53 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

You just posted he had #1 rb value in ppr. Which is it?

In ppr Kamara does have rb1 value, but his ADP is rd 6th. In my 12 team ppr, I’m going to take my first rb within by first three or four picks , Kamara won’t be the first rb I take, based on his current ADP, I can wait a little bit to draft him, if I indeed am able to do so.  

Hey thanks for the question.  

 

[Maximum Overkill 1,743]

16 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

but right now Wr 12 feels like a stretch.

I'll take Pittman as my WR2 8 days a week. He's about as safe as it gets, which is exactly what you want in your WR2. 

[wolves111 104]

11 hours ago, weepaws said:

In ppr Kamara does have rb1 value, but his ADP is rd 6th. In my 12 team ppr, I’m going to take my first rb within by first three or four picks , Kamara won’t be the first rb I take, based on his current ADP, I can wait a little bit to draft him, if I indeed am able to do so.  

Hey thanks for the question.  

 

Well, we can disagree then. The only 30-year-old RB I'd consider as my #1 would be Henry.

[weepaws 3,158]

3 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I'll take Pittman as my WR2 8 days a week. He's about as safe as it gets, which is exactly what you want in your WR2. 

Mid to low wr2,  expect for last season, in a ppr scoring system he’s been pretty much a mid to low wr2,  don’t like the Qb situation, so I think he’s going to be just that , a mid to low wr:2.  

[weepaws 3,158]

29 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Well, we can disagree then. The only 30-year-old RB I'd consider as my #1 would be Henry.

Since Kamara doesn’t turn 30 this next season, we would be an agreement, Henry is the only 30 plus rb this season I’ll take as my rb1.  

I think Henry could finish rb2 behind McCaffrey this next season.  On my non ppr Henry is my first rd target, after McCaffrey. 

[GobbleDog 985]

3 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I'll take Pittman as my WR2 8 days a week. He's about as safe as it gets, which is exactly what you want in your WR2. 

You have way more faith in Richardson's passing game than me. Maybe he's great... nobody knows. Only completed 54.7% in college, and last year's NFL - 59.5% (despite a low 6.9 yds per comp).  That has to concern anyone drafting Pittman.

[GobbleDog 985]

2 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think Henry could finish rb2 behind McCaffrey this next season.

As I've said, I think a few of the big name Rbs are a bit over-valued (Barkley, Kamara, Mixon)... but I can't say that about Henry. Metrics are solid - in spite of age, usage and playing for a bad Titans team. Incredible.

My one concern is the Ravens replaced 3 starting o-lineman which is always a bit alarming. I also wonder if the Ravens might limit the 30 yo to a small degree for a playoff push, maybe 250+ touches rather than 300+.?. Who knows, the same was said of McCaff last year and that never panned out. Still those concerns aren't enough for me to try to talk anyone out of him. He could very well finish with the most Tds and lord knows how many yards. Dude's a beast.

[weepaws 3,158]

Looking at ADP,  it’s a surprise to see that Pittmans current ADP is higher than M Evans.   No way that should be the case.  Evans is a consistent producer, who ADP should be in the top 12.

[weepaws 3,158]

12 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

As I've said, I think a few of the big name Rbs are a bit over-valued (Barkley, Kamara, Mixon)... but I can't say that about Henry. Metrics are solid - in spite of age, usage and playing for a bad Titans team. Incredible.

My one concern is the Ravens replaced 3 starting o-lineman which is always a bit alarming. I also wonder if the Ravens might limit the 30 yo to a small degree for a playoff push, maybe 250+ touches rather than 300+.?. Who knows, the same was said of McCaff last year and that never panned out. Still those concerns aren't enough for me to try to talk anyone out of him. He could very well finish with the most Tds and lord knows how many yards. Dude's a beast.

3 new o- lineman is a concern of mine also, that’s a big deal.  

[GobbleDog 985]

Wr 23 - Stefon Diggs finished top 10 last four years. Seems like a bargain, but what a strange situation in Houston. FF Mike projects Diggs at 86 receptions, which seems realistic. Now lets include the other projected receptions (Nico, Tank, Noah, Shutz, Jordan, Mixon, Pierce)...  369 total.  Assuming target to catch ratio of 70% (very high)... that's 527 targets at a minimum. But that doesn't include targets to various other 2nd/3rd stringers Wrs, Te's, Rbs, Fb... of which the seven players remaining from last year had 150. Wr's Woods and Metchie take a backseat, but it still doesn't add up. How many targets will Diggs realistically get? Not easy to figure. Lord knows he'll be the first to complain about lack of targets. Gripped his way out of Minnesota and Buffalo.

And which player shows up in Houston?  Week 1-7 last year Diggs had 6 Tds, five 100+ yd games, rec/yds out the wazoo. Ranked Wr 2. Rest of the season... 2 total Tds, never broke 100 yds, rec/yds down... ranked Wr 35. Same in the two playoff games with no Tds and modest rec/yds.  What the hell happened to Diggs? Aside from the salary cap and griping, is that partly why the Bills traded him for a 2nd rounder - (rather cheap given his stature)? Who knows.

Stroud was great last year - maybe greatest rookie Qb season of all time. So does he improve or have a softmore slump? Stats were so good a slight decrease seems likely, but not much because ... he's so good. Regardless, one thing with Stroud - he loves the long-ball, but Diggs only had 10 rec of 20+ yds last year, which is very low, as most top ten Wrs had 20+.  Last year Collins did it 25 times (in 15 gms) and Tank 10 times (in 11 games).  So does Diggs suddenly get better downfield?

Overall the situation is very confusing and no outcome (good or bad) would shock. Draft wise, I'm out.

[weepaws 3,158]

Plus Collins received a pay raise, so his numbers should be like last season imo.  To many weapons, just one ball.  I think Diggs ADP is higher than it should be.  

[GobbleDog 985]

10 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Plus Collins received a pay raise, so his numbers should be like last season imo.  To many weapons, just one ball.  I think Diggs ADP is higher than it should be.  

Texans signing Mixon to replace Singletary made sense. I think they overpaid given age/metrics... but whatever. I understand it.

I don't get the Diggs trade at all. Perhaps they wanted an upgrade over old Woods, or don't trust Dell's health?  I guess. They voided Diggs final years and threw in some guaranteed money, so Diggs is in a contract year and will be a free-agent. It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. If I were to bet, my money is on Diggs goes on to his 4th team next year.

[wolves111 104]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Since Kamara doesn’t turn 30 this next season, we would be an agreement, Henry is the only 30 plus rb this season I’ll take as my rb1.  

I think Henry could finish rb2 behind McCaffrey this next season.  On my non ppr Henry is my first rd target, after McCaffrey. 

He'll be 29- and two-months late September. Close enough.

[Maximum Overkill 1,743]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

You have way more faith in Richardson's passing game than me. Maybe he's great... nobody knows. Only completed 54.7% in college, and last year's NFL - 59.5% (despite a low 6.9 yds per comp).  That has to concern anyone drafting Pittman.

Who else is catching balls? 

[GobbleDog 985]

6 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Who else is catching balls? 

Nobody, if Richardson doesn't throw completions. 

Seriously though...  Pittman likely gets target volume and with his skills is probably good for top 25ish. It's just Wr 12 that I question. That requires competent passing which nobody knows if Richardson posses yet.

We know the Colts are going to be a run-first team. Even with Richardson missing 13 games, they still finished 11th highest rushing percentage. Baltimore was 1st of course with Jackson as Qb... and he's maintained a fairly high completion percentage (67.2% last year) - though mostly short Te throws. A run-first team with low completion rate doesn't sound great for Pittman.  It's all a gamble on how good of a passer Richardson turns out to be... I try to minimize gambling with my early picks.

 

[Maximum Overkill 1,743]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Nobody, if Richardson doesn't throw completions

That's just insane. He had 50 completions in what equaled 2 games of work. This was without Jonathan Taylor. 

[Bills04 56]

"And which player shows up in Houston?  Week 1-7 last year Diggs had 6 Tds, five 100+ yd games, rec/yds out the wazoo. Ranked Wr 2. Rest of the season... 2 total Tds, never broke 100 yds, rec/yds down... ranked Wr 35."

 

Uh .. you DO REMEMBER, that BUF fired it's Offensive Coordinator .. after Week 7?  

[GobbleDog 985]

10 minutes ago, Bills04 said:

Uh .. you DO REMEMBER, that BUF fired it's Offensive Coordinator .. after Week 7?  

Remember? I didn't even know it. Now that I look it up Dorsey was actually fired after Week 10, but that's interesting. Not sure it completely explains the drop-off, but makes ya wonder. Too bad the old coordinator isn't going with Diggs to Houston.

 

 

[weepaws 3,158]

Collins 

[weepaws 3,158]

Some I do like at His current ADP, that’s Mooney of the Falcons, he’s good enough, and teamed up with Cousins, I think his adp is great right now, I think Mooney has flex start upside, and even low wr2.  

[GobbleDog 985]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Some I do like at His current ADP, that’s Mooney of the Falcons, he’s good enough, and teamed up with Cousins, I think his adp is great right now, I think Mooney has flex start upside, and even low wr2.  

You may be on to something... Mooney recently signed a 3-year $39 mill deal with $26 mill guaranteed. The #2 banana for Cousins did well in Minnesota (Addinson). I need to look into this.

[Ray_T 740]

On 6/18/2024 at 3:25 PM, weepaws said:

I think some rb catching ability is overrated, but some do it better than others.  Kamara seems to be darn good at it. 

fully agree.

but just as much as pass catching ability matters, it also matters if the QB likes to throw to their RB's.   doesnt matter how good the RB is at catching the ball, if the QB isnt looking for him its not gonna matter much.     and some QB's just like throwing to their WR/TE.  

[IGotWorms 4,057]

15 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

You have way more faith in Richardson's passing game than me. Maybe he's great... nobody knows. Only completed 54.7% in college, and last year's NFL - 59.5% (despite a low 6.9 yds per comp).  That has to concern anyone drafting Pittman.

Pittman was not great with ARich last year.

Now you’d think ARich should be a better passer this year.

But he wasn’t much of a passer in college either so it might just be who he is

[IGotWorms 4,057]

14 hours ago, weepaws said:

Looking at ADP,  it’s a surprise to see that Pittmans current ADP is higher than M Evans.   No way that should be the case.  Evans is a consistent producer, who ADP should be in the top 12.

Evans was good last year but kinda sh1tty the two years before that. Had a few monster games and otherwise a lot of duds.

[weepaws 3,158]

2 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Evans was good last year but kinda sh1tty the two years before that. Had a few monster games and otherwise a lot of duds.

What two years before that, 2022 Evans was a mid wr2, 2021 Evans was a low wr1, were so you see . And 2021,2022,2023 Evans has scored more ff then your man Pittman.  

Thanks. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,743]

5 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Evans was good last year but kinda sh1tty the two years before that. Had a few monster games and otherwise a lot of duds.

This exactly. The end of year fantasy stats are always good but he'll frustrate the hell out of you week to week and most likely cost you a playoff spot or championship. He's killed me in past years. I won't touch him anymore. 

[IGotWorms 4,057]

7 hours ago, weepaws said:

What two years before that, 2022 Evans was a mid wr2, 2021 Evans was a low wr1, were so you see . And 2021,2022,2023 Evans has scored more ff then your man Pittman.  

Thanks. 

First off, Pittman isn’t “my man.”

Second, you have to look at game logs. ‘22 was just not good for a supposed WR1. ‘21 end of season looks good but game logs tell you he was actually a dud most of the year.

Anyway, just sayin, he had some very mediocre years there for a WR1.

[weepaws 3,158]

Evens ADP right now is mid to low wr2, I hope I can get him for that price come August, he’s a consistent performer, and he’s better than Pittman who’s ADP is high wr2, with a Qb that cant pass.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

On 6/16/2024 at 7:08 PM, GobbleDog said:

Saquon Barkley's ADP of 2.02 (Rb6) is bananas. Last year his metrics declined dramatically probably from age, injuries and high millage.  Hurts is going to steal goal line Tds and doesn't throw much to Rbs - last year Swift (known as a pass-catching back) only had 39 rec; in '22 Gainwell was the Eagles top receiving back... 23.

I don't see how anyone can justify an early 2nd rounder. Name recognition goes a long way I guess.

 

On 6/16/2024 at 7:39 PM, Ray_T said:

I dont think age had much to do with it.  he was 26 last year.   too early to decline due to age.

but whenever you play on a bad team your metrics usually decline some.   especially if the QB play isnt good.   If I was a defense I'd stack the box and force the QB (or backup QB as was the case much of last year)  to beat you through the air.

On the Iggles, the Line is far superior, so I'd expect better numbers, more red zone opportunities and more TD.

Barkley is going from one of the worst offenses in terms of Line, QB, and WR in the NFL to one of the best.  Barkley has an outside shot to be the RB1 this year if he stays healthy.  If you think Barkley will get hurt and not play 17 games, then I won't disagree on the potential outcome of the season.  That could happen.  He may play only 10 games or less.  However, if you think he could play this season fairly healthy and play 15+ games, he has the chance to put up monster numbers this year.

[weepaws 3,158]

6 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 

Barkley is going from one of the worst offenses in terms of Line, QB, and WR in the NFL to one of the best.  Barkley has an outside shot to be the RB1 this year if he stays healthy.  If you think Barkley will get hurt and not play 17 games, then I won't disagree on the potential outcome of the season.  That could happen.  He may play only 10 games or less.  However, if you think he could play this season fairly healthy and play 15+ games, he has the chance to put up monster numbers this year.

Non ppr his adp is rd 1.  Ppr his adp is mid rd 2, very much a bargain. I agree I think he’s going to shine.  

[GobbleDog 985]

17 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Barkley is going from one of the worst offenses in terms of Line, QB, and WR in the NFL to one of the best. 

he has the chance to put up monster numbers this year.

25 yo low-millage Sanders had that o-line and good team in '22... 17 gms - 259 car, 4.9 ypc, 20 rec, 11 Tds, and finished 13th.

24 yo low-millage Swift had that o-line and good team last year... 16 gms - 229 car, 4.6 ypc, 39 rec, 6 Tds, and finished 17th.

Here comes 27 yo high-millage Barkley with injury history... and an ADP of Rb 6.  At that price your betting your most valuable draft capital that he stays healthy all year and vastly outperforms the prior two Rbs, even though his '23 metrics weren't great.  Anything can happen, but I wouldn't make that bet.