Najee Harris -vs- Jaylen Warren

[GobbleDog 984]

Harris 17 gm, 255 car, 1035 yds, 4.1 ypc, 29 rec, 8 total Tds... Rb 28, 10.7 ppg (34th)

Warren 17 gm, 149 car, 784 yds, 5.3 ypc, 61 rec, 4 total Tds... Rb 20, 11.8 ppg (28th)

Adp's roughly Najee Rb 25, Warren Rb 26.  So, it's round 7 or 8 and ya see both available. Who ya drafting?

[weepaws 3,157]

Neither, I’ll let you have both.  Don’t like the situation.   

[makindollaz 51]

If both are still on the board when I need an RB3/Flex, I’d go Warren in PPR, Harris if standard.  I’d be concerned if either are my RB2.

[GobbleDog 984]

Warren's metrics were off the charts last year as one of the most elusive and efficient Rbs. If he wasn't so small, he'd be the backbone of any offense. But at 5'8" he's not built for that much work. Amazing he's only missed 1 game in two years.

Have to say I'm not excited about either... just thought it was an interesting topic given their adp's are nearly identical. If I had to pick one, I'd take Harris with all the goal line work and 15+ carries per game. Might not be as consistent point wise as Warren with his receptions, but more durable at 6'2" and I'd expect a few more monster games.

[weepaws 3,157]

I’ve seen reports that Harris has lost weight, and looks really fit, and ready, so I had to choose one, Harris would be the guy. 

[GobbleDog 984]

21 hours ago, weepaws said:

I’ve seen reports that Harris has lost weight, and looks really fit, and ready, so I had to choose one, Harris would be the guy. 

Makes sense as it's a contract year for Harris - Steelers declined his fifth-year option.

One article I read speculated if his efficiency increased by just a smidge, he'd easily crack top 20 with all the volume. Steelers drafted o-lineman with their 1st, 2nd and 4th round picks which should help (1st rounder in '23 as well). And of course Arthur Smith calling plays. Smith used a maddening rotation in Atlanta, but before that at Tennessee in '19 and '20... Derrick Henry had 303 and 378 carries averaging 5.1 and 5.4 ypc. So which Harris shows up and how much volume does Arthur Smith give him?  We shall see...

[weepaws 3,157]

That’s why I’m passing, to many variables.   

[League Champion 1,896]

Neither but I'd take the upside of Warren if anything. Najee is what he is. 

[Gepetto 1,291]

Najee Harris has proven he can win Fantasy Football championships. I lost the FF Championship game b/c the Browns couldn't tackle or didn't want to tackle Najee Harris. 

I don't want either in 2024.

Jaylen Warren is not winning any fantasy leagues. Pass at any ADP.

I draft all RB1s and RB2s for my starters and bench. Warren is not a RB2 in any world.

[League Champion 1,896]

2 hours ago, Gepetto said:

Najee Harris has proven he can win Fantasy Football championships.

He may of been on Championship Teams but he's never been what I'd call a league winner . I don't think he or Warren fits that bill, just good backs to roster at this point. 

[GobbleDog 984]

Stats...

Harris's Playerprofiler.com metric rankings weren't great... Yds per touch 46th, Yds created per touch 39th, Juke rate 22nd, Production Premium 42nd. Though surprisingly nice Breakaway Run Rate 10th.

Some advanced Rb stats per Fantasypros.com... not too shabby.

23 Rbs had 200+ carries last year. Yards After Contact per Attempt...  Harris tied for 2nd most (2.1). 1st was Hall (2.2), 23rd was Jacobs (1.3)

Among those 23 Rbs.... Broken Tackles / Rushing Attempt...  Harris had 2nd highest rate (11.7%). Highest was Conner (13.0%), Lowest was White (3.3%)

Among all Rb's, Harris played against the 10th highest rate of stacked defenses boxes (27.5%). Hunt faced the highest rate (37.0%)`

[weepaws 3,157]

Still not interested 

[GobbleDog 984]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Still not interested 

I'm not overly interested either, but for the sake of discussion... what if Harris was guaranteed 300 carries this year.?. That'd do it for me. Gotta love volume.

With Smith as coordinator, it's certainly possible.  Especially with Harris on the last year of his contract. Might run him into the ground before spitting him out. Like the Raiders did with Jacobs.

[League Champion 1,896]

I'm interested in anybody at the right ADP. If Najee falls I'll consider it. He's not on my must have list, that's for sure. 

[weepaws 3,157]

25 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I'm not overly interested either, but for the sake of discussion... what if Harris was guaranteed 300 carries this year.?. That'd do it for me. Gotta love volume.

With Smith as coordinator, it's certainly possible.  Especially with Harris on the last year of his contract. Might run him into the ground before spitting him out. Like the Raiders did with Jacobs.

Would be the one putting up the guarantee?  Reports I have seen, have Harris coming in lighter, he’s top 300 rushing att in his three seasons once, and the next season I think he broke down a little,  i Warren is a bigger threat, and even with Smith, I still see a RBBC , But Harris should be the rb with the most work.  

At Harris current ADP, I would rather own Montgomery and Z White.  

[IGotWorms 4,057]

Harris isn’t a bad value pick. I’d take him and hope he doesn’t look as bad as he did in the first half of ‘23.

Warren is a good player but just not built for volume 

[weepaws 3,157]

55 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Harris isn’t a bad value pick. I’d take him and hope he doesn’t look as bad as he did in the first half of ‘23.

Warren is a good player but just not built for volume 

But Warren is built for an RBBC 

[IGotWorms 4,057]

49 minutes ago, weepaws said:

But Warren is built for an RBBC 

Yes but he won’t get enough touches to end up a very solid RB2, like Harris could (if he can play well enough to command them)

[polecatt 474]

It's a tough call.

Najee Harris is coming of a 1000 yard season, he scored twice as many TDs.

It just seems like Warren is the more explosive RB.

This reminds me of the latter stages of Zeke's first stint in Dallas. He was the main RB, but it seemed like Tony Pollard was the better player, and would eventually push Zeke aside. Which is exactly what happened.

[weepaws 3,157]

At 215 lbs Warren isn’t a small dude based on weight, and his 5.3 per rush avg will be hard to just leave on the bench, Harris as a below avg per rush avg in his three seasons.  I’m not interested.  I see a full RBBC. 

[League Champion 1,896]

Oddly enough, Warren had 61 receptions but ZERO receiving TDs and only 4 on the ground. 

I'd expect that to change now that they have decent mobile QBs but still something to consider. 

I'm not high on either but I'd take a shot on Najee if he slips a little. 

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

14 hours ago, weepaws said:

At 215 lbs Warren isn’t a small dude based on weight, and his 5.3 per rush avg will be hard to just leave on the bench, Harris as a below avg per rush avg in his three seasons.  I’m not interested.  I see a full RBBC. 

^This, yes. 

Only possible way Najee gets 300 touches is Jaylen gets injured and Tomlin DIRECTS Arthur to give him ALL the touches.  If it was up to Arthur then even with Jaylen injury Najee won't see 300 touches cause someone like his best gadget friend Cordarelle will be getting touches out of backfield.  

[GobbleDog 984]

46 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

Only possible way Najee gets 300 touches is Jaylen gets injured and Tomlin DIRECTS Arthur to give him ALL the touches.  If it was up to Arthur then even with Jaylen injury Najee won't see 300 touches cause someone like his best gadget friend Cordarelle will be getting touches out of backfield.  

Najee's adp starting his rookie year:

2021) Rb 11

2022) Rb 5

2023) Rb 9

2024) Rb 25

If there was ever a time to buy-low, this is it. He doesn't need 300 carries; better efficiency with the 250 he had last year would justify that adp. Considering how much the Steelers invested in their o-line and Smith's successful running schemes, he's in a great situation to succeed - Warren be damned. 

[weepaws 3,157]

Harris was rb23 last season ppr, I think his adp is perfect.  Plus Fields is going to be on the field , I think Fields and or Patterson can be used in a slash type roll.   Scary.  

[GobbleDog 984]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Harris was rb23 last season ppr, I think his adp is perfect.  Plus Fields is going to be on the field , I think Fields and or Patterson can be used in a slash type roll.   Scary.  

To be fair, Harris was Rb 27 (wk 1-17). Including week 18 messes up the comparison as playoff-bound Rbs don't all play that week, or lightly used. Playoff teams also rest defensive starters as was the case when Steelers played Ravens week 18... Harris had 133+ yds, 5 rec, and a Td.

Harris was Rb 34 (wk 1-17) in point per game, mainly due to some real clunkers to start the season. But hell, nothing goes right with Rudolph/Pickett at Qb.

[weepaws 3,157]

28 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

To be fair, Harris was Rb 27 (wk 1-17). Including week 18 messes up the comparison as playoff-bound Rbs don't all play that week, or lightly used. Playoff teams also rest defensive starters as was the case when Steelers played Ravens week 18... Harris had 133+ yds, 5 rec, and a Td.

Harris was Rb 34 (wk 1-17) in point per game, mainly due to some real clunkers to start the season. But hell, nothing goes right with Rudolph/Pickett at Qb.

Agreed, to many variables. 

[Ray_T 740]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

To be fair, Harris was Rb 27 (wk 1-17). Including week 18 messes up the comparison as playoff-bound Rbs don't all play that week, or lightly used. Playoff teams also rest defensive starters as was the case when Steelers played Ravens week 18... Harris had 133+ yds, 5 rec, and a Td.

Harris was Rb 34 (wk 1-17) in point per game, mainly due to some real clunkers to start the season. But hell, nothing goes right with Rudolph/Pickett at Qb.

yeah, if the QB is bad or the offense is bad its sometimes hard to evaluate players in this way.

with little to no garbage time games for the RB's we shouldnt have expected any more than RB2 production for either.    Teams know the biggest threat is the ground game, so they likely stacked the box and dared whoever was starting to beat them through the air.   As neither QB really proved  they could get it done through the air, there was likely no reason for anyone to stray from this.

Thats what id have done if I was the Defensive Coordinator facing the Steelers last year.    

so its harder for the RB to perform when that is the situation.   Wilson isnt what he once was, but hes good enough to keep defenses honest.   I expect the ground game will be considerably better than it was last year.    but I'm still not 100% sure which RB in this offense I would prefer

[GobbleDog 984]

6 hours ago, Ray_T said:

but I'm still not 100% sure which RB in this offense I would prefer

I wasn't sure myself when I started this thread - just did it to bs about anything fantasy football. But the more numbers I crunch and think about this situation, I'm really liking Harris at that low adp.  Not many Rb's staring at 250+ carries available that late in the draft and he's in a great situation.

Admittedly Warren's metrics were off the charts last year... impressive, but gonna be tough to repeat.

[Gepetto 1,291]

On 8/6/2024 at 12:19 AM, League Champion said:

He may of been on Championship Teams but he's never been what I'd call a league winner . I don't think he or Warren fits that bill, just good backs to roster at this point. 

This was his rookie year. He was a beast. 

2021 Najee Harris 

307 carries for 1200 yards 7 TDs

74 receptions for 467 yards 3 TDs

[Ray_T 740]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

I wasn't sure myself when I started this thread - just did it to bs about anything fantasy football. But the more numbers I crunch and think about this situation, I'm really liking Harris at that low adp.  Not many Rb's staring at 250+ carries available that late in the draft and he's in a great situation.

Admittedly Warren's metrics were off the charts last year... impressive, but gonna be tough to repeat.

all that and Naj is still listed as the starter.   so that is the direction I am leaning at this time.   but its not as clear cut as I'd like it to be.

[League Champion 1,896]

7 hours ago, Gepetto said:

This was his rookie year. He was a beast. 

2021 Najee Harris 

307 carries for 1200 yards 7 TDs

74 receptions for 467 yards 3 TDs

2021? 

[Gepetto 1,291]

15 hours ago, League Champion said:

2021? 

yes

[GobbleDog 984]

Yards Before Contact - shows mix of O-line run-block quality, offensive prowess (less stacked boxes), and to some extent Rb finding holes. 

Among the 23 Rbs with 200+ touches last year.... Najee was dead last with 1.6 yds. McCaff was highest at 3.1. Average was 2.4.

Prior years.

'22 Najee ... 2.1

'21 Najee ... 1.7

No wonder the Steelers spent so much draft capital on O-linemen in recent years, and Pitt's offense has been terrible. But, does Najee have a problem finding the hole?  Settle down Beavis. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

I'd take Harris as an RB3.  Being a contract year and not having his 5th year option being picked up, I'd think he'd be ready to prove everyone wrong.  I'd take Warren as a RB4/5 because I think he's best used as a complimentary back, not a lead back.  I certainly wouldn't take both.

[weepaws 3,157]

If you pass on Rbs in the earlier rds one would not have much of a choice but to take Harris as their rb3.   

[Ray_T 740]

july mock (PPR) Naj and Jaylan Warren were #23 and #24 off the board for RB.   so they are both valued as a RB2/3

[weepaws 3,157]

34 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

july mock (PPR) Naj and Jaylan Warren were #23 and #24 off the board for RB.   so they are both valued as a RB2/3

What rounds? 

[Ray_T 740]

6.06 and 6.08 respectively.

[weepaws 3,157]

Thanks. 

[Ray_T 740]

On 8/6/2024 at 1:26 PM, IGotWorms said:

Harris isn’t a bad value pick. I’d take him and hope he doesn’t look as bad as he did in the first half of ‘23.

Warren is a good player but just not built for volume 

if you are going zero RB strategy he might be a guy you would look at.