Draft Strategy No Matter Where I'm picking draft tonight

[HTH 93]

Draft is Randomized One Hour Prior to Draft Time.

I'm thinking:

RB/WR/TE/RB/WR/QB

anyone have any QB sleepers?

 

[HTH 93]

12 Team Flex PPR

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

13 minutes ago, HTH said:

anyone have any QB sleepers?

 

Aaron Rodgers?  I mean, most adp's and rankings I see have him way down the list, near 20.  I think he has a reasonable shot at 4200 yards and 35 TD's.  If he has 0 rushing points and say 15 Int's, that's somewhere near 300 fantasy points and based on last year, a low end QB1. 

[HTH 93]

10 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Aaron Rodgers?  I mean, most adp's and rankings I see have him way down the list, near 20.  I think he has a reasonable shot at 4200 yards and 35 TD's.  If he has 0 rushing points and say 15 Int's, that's somewhere near 300 fantasy points and based on last year, a low end QB1. 

Thanks Tampa!

What are your thoughts on Jayden Daniels?

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

8 minutes ago, HTH said:

Thanks Tampa!

What are your thoughts on Jayden Daniels?

 

None. 

I don't really watch college football, so I have no idea what he'll be.  I almost never draft rookie QB's either because there's always a good known quantity.  Last year I drafted Stroud in my keeper league (2 QB), but that's because I already had Herbert and Fields (and it was 8 rounds in [we keep 5 players]).

[GobbleDog 984]

54 minutes ago, HTH said:

12 Team Flex PPR

My 12 Team Flex PPR draft is tomorrow. Already know my position - 6th, but wouldn't have mattered. Early, mid, late same strategy.  Wr heavy - it's ppr and Wr's are much more predictable/reliable than Rbs. I'll let others feel the pain of their 1st and 2nd round Rbs ripping up knees in the first few weeks, or just not playing up to expectation.

1, 2, 3 .... Wr, Wr, Wr  (for me - Jefferson, Olave, London or something similar)

4, 5, 6 ...  Rb, Rb, Rb (for me - Walker, Stevenson, Jones, Z. White, Harris or something similar)

7 ... Te (Engram, Pitts, Kittle, Ferguson - one of them is ALWAYS there in mocks)

8 ... Rb (last starters left: Mostert, Singletary, Moss)

9 ... Qb  - Only one guy I want here - Tua. Another year with McDaniel, healthy Achane, new Te athletic freak Jonu Smith, offensive drafted weapons, and Mostert probably doesn't vulture the obscene amount of Tds. I expect at LEAST 35 Tds from Tua this year, and possibly 40+, along with all those beautiful yards. Tua is being drastically under-valued because only 29 Tds last year, but in several games he only played the first half (score out of hand) and Mostert's ridiculous 18 rushing Tds. In spite of limited playing time, he still led the league in passing yards.

Get a backup Qb in rounds 10 or 11... Cousins or Goff

Good luck to both of us.

[Serenity Now 63]

I love Jayden Daniel’s value in drafts. 
 
Jayden Daniel’s betting lines @ adp 100

18.5 passing TDS

550.5 rushing yard

3150.5 passing yards

5.5 rushing tds

Anthony Richardson betting lines @ adp 51

18.5 passing tds

550.5 rushing yards

3200.5 passing yards

7.5 rushing tds

 

[Chickie 74]

1 hour ago, HTH said:

Draft is Randomized One Hour Prior to Draft Time.

I'm thinking:

RB/WR/TE/RB/WR/QB

anyone have any QB sleepers?

 

I like Geno late. 

[Serenity Now 63]

I think it’s a mistake to go with a pre set position each round in mind. Gotta zig when others zag. Every league is different as far as scoring system, starting lineup positions, bench depths, waiver wire etc. and it all plays a factor in how players and positions should be valued. 
 

Also, if you’re looking for bottom of the barrel, last round qb sleeper but has some upside, Bryce Young. He has a new OC, and has better weapons around him, I don’t think he’ll be a qb 1 but he’s going to outperform adp.

[HTH 93]

I drew the 9th pick.

Any suggestions?

[GobbleDog 984]

7 minutes ago, HTH said:

I drew the 9th pick.

Any suggestions?

Best Wr available... unfortunately that might be Puca, but I'd hold my nose and do it. Pretty much a lock for Olave in 2nd (if he doesn't get 160 targets this year, I'll eat my hat). If I can't get him, I'd settle for Adams.

Then comes late 3rd... this is where things sometimes got sketchy in mock drafts.  I'm obviously big Wr-Wr-Wr guy, but the last worthwhile Wr's IMO in the 3rd are Aiyuk and Metcalf and in some mocks... they gone. So in those cases I pivoted and took Rb Walker (very bullish).

If ya do land Wr-Wr-Wr... again look for Walker in the early 4th. Probably won't be disappointed.

Give 'em hell HTH !

[GobbleDog 984]

Don't be scared of Zero Rb. "Oh I'll be hurting at that position all year.... " No ya won't.

PLENTY of startable Rbs rounds 4-8. Add in some late round Rb lotto picks (Vidal), waiver pickups.... you'll be fine. We're talking 2 messily spots to fill. And most of the league who did draft Rbs early will be regretting it when they're lost to injury or just flat out under-perform. Happens every year.

[weepaws 3,157]

Ppr I would go wr with the ninth pick.  

[HTH 93]

My Team:

 

NO.	PLAYER	ROUND
9	Jonathan Taylor Ind, RB	1
16	Puka Nacua LAR, WR	2
33	Travis Kelce KC, TE	3
40	Joe Mixon Hou, RB	4
57	Dak Prescott Dal, QB	5
64	James Conner Ari, RB	6
81	Amari Cooper Cle, WR	7
88	Marquise Brown KC, WR	8
105	Brandin Cooks Dal, WR	9
112	Rome Odunze Chi, WR	10
129	Ravens D/ST Bal, D/ST	11
136	Jerry Jeudy Cle, WR	12
153	Tyler Conklin NYJ, TE	13
160	Geno Smith Sea, QB	14
177	DeMario Douglas NE, WR	15
184	Jake Moody SF, K	16

[HTH 93]

What does everyone think?

[nobody 2,567]

Can't trust Puka.  Rams love to jerk around with injury reporting.

Mixon, Taylor, and Conner are great values at RB.

Cooper good value.

You're going to be looking for WRs all year.  Jeudy is worthless.  He's too soft to be a consistent producer in the NFL.  Hollywood will be too inconsistent and might become irrelevant with Xavier Worthy there.  Odunze needs an injury to Keenan or Moore.  Douglas is going to lose targets to Polk.

Dump Geno, Jeudy, Conklin, and Pop, and pickup Jordan Mason, Luke Musgrave, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Dontavion Wicks

[GobbleDog 984]

1 hour ago, HTH said:

What does everyone think?

Word that comes to mind is .... Risky.  IF Taylor holds up, he should have a very good year. IF Stafford stays healthy - Nacua should finish Wr 10+-. IF Kelce continues to be a top 3 Te (despite slumping second half last year). And IF Mixon isn't washed, even though his metrics indicate that might be the case. I do like Prescott, Cooper, Odunze. All probably outperform adp.

What I don't get is.... 7 Wrs, but only 3 Rbs?  Might want to exchange some of those late picks for Rb lotto tickets while the getting is good. Kimanii Vidal still out there?  Highly recommend.

As as Wr-heavy guy, it wasn't my cup 'o tea. But there's many ways to skin a cat. Skin that cat HTH !!!

[Serenity Now 63]

Seems like a decent roster to begin with. Assuming you only start 2 WRs I think you’ll be fine to there.  Puka and Cooper are in the front half of the 30-40 inconsistent WR 2/3s after the elites are gone. Brown and Odunze give you some solid upside and I think Cooks will have a better than ADP year.

 

I also agree with above that if it’s a 1 Qb and 1 te league you can dump Geno and Conklin for some RB depth. They aren’t bad, but if Dak or Kelce get hurt streaming is your best option anyway.

[GobbleDog 984]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

Jeudy is worthless.  He's too soft to be a consistent producer in the NFL.  Hollywood will be too inconsistent and might become irrelevant with Xavier Worthy there.  Odunze needs an injury to Keenan or Moore.

Agree with Jeudy, not because he's "soft" - don't know if he is, but regardless, where is he on the target pecking order?  Maybe 4th?  On a run-first team with mentally broken Watson at Qb?  Bad situation.

Hollywood will be inconsistent, but all Chiefs Wrs will be. I don't think it's a terrible pick, just wouldn't want to have to rely on him week in and week out. I'd prefer him over Worthy that's for sure.

Odunze is gonna surprise. Dude is a stud and I think he straight-up outperforms Keenan this year. No injury necessary. Might take til mid-season though.

[SUXBNME 1,457]

21 hours ago, HTH said:

Thanks Tampa!

What are your thoughts on Jayden Daniels?

 

Great value for his ADP. 
Possibly the next Anthony Richardson.

[weepaws 3,157]

41 minutes ago, SUXBNME said:

Great value for his ADP. 
Possibly the next Anthony Richardson.

Richardson has played in four nfl games, and completed 59% of his passes, let’s hope Daniels can do better.  

[Ray_T 740]

On 8/30/2024 at 1:49 PM, HTH said:

 

anyone have any QB sleepers?

 

I also like Kirk Cousins.  though I'm not sure hes really a sleeper, but hes not being drafted as a QB1 and there is a chance he should be.   People are discounting him due to the Achilles injury but he is not a running QB.  hes always been a bit of a statue in the pocket, so I really dont think the injury affects his game.    Early in the season hes looked sharp too.

and now hes on a team with pretty close to equal talent to what he had in Minny, but hes playing behind a better line.

you give a guy like Cousins more time to throw,  hes gonna be more productive.     so I wouldnt be surprised if you pro rate his stats while healthy to a full season if he hits that number.  if things go right, he even exceeds that number, and I'm pretty sure that's in QB1 territory.

[SUXBNME 1,457]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Richardson has played in four nfl games, and completed 59% of his passes, let’s hope Daniels can do better.  

I hope so. I missed him in my main league today, but did get him in the Dynasty league here.

[SUXBNME 1,457]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I also like Kirk Cousins.  though I'm not sure hes really a sleeper, but hes not being drafted as a QB1 and there is a chance he should be.   People are discounting him due to the Achilles injury but he is not a running QB.  hes always been a bit of a statue in the pocket, so I really dont think the injury affects his game.    Early in the season hes looked sharp too.

and now hes on a team with pretty close to equal talent to what he had in Minny, but hes playing behind a better line.

you give a guy like Cousins more time to throw,  hes gonna be more productive.     so I wouldnt be surprised if you pro rate his stats while healthy to a full season if he hits that number.  if things go right, he even exceeds that number, and I'm pretty sure that's in QB1 territory.

Love Cousins this year. For the ADP, can't go wrong, imo

[GobbleDog 984]

On 8/30/2024 at 4:57 PM, GobbleDog said:

1, 2, 3 .... Wr, Wr, Wr  (for me - Jefferson, Olave, London or something similar)

4, 5, 6 ...  Rb, Rb, Rb (for me - Walker, Stevenson, Jones, Z. White, Harris or something similar)

7 ... Te (Engram, Pitts, Kittle, Ferguson - one of them is ALWAYS there in mocks)

8 ... Rb (last starters left: Mostert, Singletary, Moss)

9 ... Qb  - Only one guy I want here - Tua.

Get a backup Qb in rounds 10 or 11... Cousins or Goff

Love it when a plan comes together. Draft results from the #6 spot:

1, 2, 3 ... Jefferson, Olave, Collins  - PPR and bonus pts for 100 yd games; guess which position breaks 100 yds more than any other... oh yeah.

4, 5, 6 ... Stevenson, Jones, Z. White - shotgun middle. Bound to hit something.

7 ... Ferguson - last of the good one's. Just like mock drafts said.

8 ... Spears - only pick not to plan... Moss, Singletary, and Mostart gone.  Oh well, #4 Rb rarely sees the light of day.

9 ... Tua - 0.5 pt per COMPLETION plus bonus pts for 300 yd games. God bless me.

10, 11, 12 ... Bowers, Hollywood, Cousins - remember, safety first!

13, 14 ... Vidal, and who cares - got my Lotto

Give it up for the greatest draft in the history of the world!  

[plasma george 62]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Love it when a plan comes together. Draft results from the #6 spot:

1, 2, 3 ... Jefferson, Olave, Collins  - PPR and bonus pts for 100 yd games; guess which position breaks 100 yds more than any other... oh yeah.

4, 5, 6 ... Stevenson, Jones, Z. White - shotgun middle. Bound to hit something.

7 ... Ferguson - last of the good one's. Just like mock drafts said.

8 ... Spears - only pick not to plan... Moss, Singletary, and Mostart gone.  Oh well, #4 Rb rarely sees the light of day.

9 ... Tua - 0.5 pt per COMPLETION plus bonus pts for 300 yd games. God bless me.

10, 11, 12 ... Bowers, Hollywood, Cousins - remember, safety first!

13, 14 ... Vidal, and who cares - got my Lotto

Give it up for the greatest draft in the history of the world!  

I'm 6 tonight, and thinking your exact strategy, would love Ferguson/Tua.......but going RB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR.

I'm looking at Taylor, then Henry/Pachecko, then "Gobbleing" Walker, then Best 3 WRs available.  I like that team better. 

[GobbleDog 984]

33 minutes ago, plasma george said:

I'm 6 tonight, and thinking your exact strategy, would love Ferguson/Tua.......but going RB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR.

Early draft picks are the most valuable capital you own. Investing that capital into the most volatile and least predictable position, can be risky.

Among the top 5 Rbs adp last year.... only 1 finished top 10. (McCaff)

Among the top 5 Wrs adp last year... 4 finished top 10. (Jefferson didn't)

If your early Rbs avoid the injury bug and live up to adp - fantastic, but if ya miss... might need to hit homeruns the rest of the daft. Everyone is worried if they don't draft an early Rb, they'll be hurting at that position all year - I used to be that guy. But it's extremely easy to fill 2 messily Rb spots with very startable Rbs rounds 4-8, along with Lotto picks and waiver pick ups. Completely avoid risking my most valuable capital. Also nice to know that MOST of the top 10 Rb finishers last year, were actually drafted rds 3-6. Mostert was lowest (rd 10). Der's gold in the dem hills - just gotta mine it.

Any strategy can win obviously. If ya load up on Rbs early, I'll be rooting for ya. I'm just a bit more risk averse.

[plasma george 62]

38 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Early draft picks are the most valuable capital you own. Investing that capital into the most volatile and least predictable position, can be risky.

Among the top 5 Rbs adp last year.... only 1 finished top 10. (McCaff)

Among the top 5 Wrs adp last year... 4 finished top 10. (Jefferson didn't)

If your early Rbs avoid the injury bug and live up to adp - fantastic, but if ya miss... might need to hit homeruns the rest of the daft. Everyone is worried if they don't draft an early Rb, they'll be hurting at that position all year - I used to be that guy. But it's extremely easy to fill 2 messily Rb spots with very startable Rbs rounds 4-8, along with Lotto picks and waiver pick ups. Completely avoid risking my most valuable capital. Also nice to know that MOST of the top 10 Rb finishers last year, were actually drafted rds 3-6. Mostert was lowest (rd 10). Der's gold in the dem hills - just gotta mine it.

Any strategy can win obviously. If ya load up on Rbs early, I'll be rooting for ya. I'm just a bit more risk averse.

Injuries is a good point, as RB1s see more contact during the games, than WRs.  I will adjust as Players fall to me, always seek Best Value.

[Maximum Overkill 1,741]

On 8/30/2024 at 3:49 PM, HTH said:

thinking

Get Amon Ra 

[HTH 93]

Should I drop Jeudy  for Jet's RB Braelon Allen?

[GobbleDog 984]

1 minute ago, HTH said:

Should I drop Jeudy  for Jet's RB Braelon Allen?

I'd drop Jeudy for some Rb Lotto ticket, but Allen would not be my first choice.

Kimani Vidal - whoever guesses right on the Chargers back-field is gonna get paid, be it Edwards, Dobbins or future HOFer Kimani Vidal.

[HTH 93]

1 minute ago, GobbleDog said:

I'd drop Jeudy for some Rb Lotto ticket, but Allen would not be my first choice.

Kimani Vidal - whoever guesses right on the Chargers back-field is gonna get paid, be it Edwards, Dobbins or future HOFer Kimani Vidal.

Slim Pickins on the RB Front.

Vidal was already drafted.

[GobbleDog 984]

Alrighty then.  So rather than Allen and waiting for an injury to the youthfull/lightly used Breece Hall.... how about Rasheen Ali and waiting for an injury to the old-as-dirt/overworked Travis Henry.  If Henry goes down the Ravens will probably turn to their 5th round pick, over Justice Hill.  The starting Rb for the Ravens typically does quite well. 

Or perhaps Kendre Miller and wait for an injury to the old-as-dirt/overworked Kamara.

Just some thoughts...

[HTH 93]

Thanks GobbleDog!

[HTH 93]

Just picked up Ali.

[GobbleDog 984]

2 minutes ago, HTH said:

Just picked up Ali.

If it works out, you'll look like a genius.... that's a deep sleeper.  The skinny:

Adp No. 326 Rasheen Ali Ravens 5th rd pick out of Marshall. Missed the combine due to injury (torn bicep) which depressed his draft stock, but once a member of Marshall's track team which suggests some serious speed. Scouts tout his quick burst, good vision and receiving skills. Biggest weakness was too many fumbles in college.

By using a 5th rd draft pick on him, seems the Ravens were buying some insurance for a Henry injury as Justice Hill is yet another year older and has never amounted to much. If Henry does go down I'd be using my waiver on Ali, definitely not Hill, depth chart be damned.

[Ray_T 740]

On 9/1/2024 at 6:36 PM, GobbleDog said:

Alrighty then.  So rather than Allen and waiting for an injury to the youthfull/lightly used Breece Hall.... how about Rasheen Ali and waiting for an injury to the old-as-dirt/overworked Travis Henry.  If Henry goes down the Ravens will probably turn to their 5th round pick, over Justice Hill.  The starting Rb for the Ravens typically does quite well. 

Or perhaps Kendre Miller and wait for an injury to the old-as-dirt/overworked Kamara.

Just some thoughts...

I actually like the Kendre Miller flyer.  almost took him in a couple drafts of mine, but hes one of many late round flyers I like.

but any team where the starting RB is close to (or over) the age of 30 you should pick their top backup late to pair up with the player. 

so if picking Kamara, Kendre Miller is likely the most valueable handcuff on the board to you and as a player hes worth more on your roster than he is on any other roster.

but I dont mind him as a pickup at all.   Not sure about Ali.  I feel like if King Henry goes down, that becomes a committee where nobody puts up good numbers.

[weepaws 3,157]

I don’t know how to trust K Miller, not even sure the Saints staff does , he has been called out throughout the summer, and based on some reports was almost traded away.  If I was the OP I would have taken Allen.  

[Ray_T 740]

9 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I don’t know to trust K Miller, not even sure the Saints staff does , he has been called out throughout the summer, and based on some reports was almost traded away.  If I the OP I would have taken Allen.  

nice post I was not aware of this.    if you(or anyone else) find any articles specific to this I'd appreciate if you post it here.   this is a situation that may be worth keeping on top of.  especially if it turns out Kamara gets hurt.

I fully expect as long as Kamara is healthy Miller will likely remain on the wire anyhow so there is no rush on this unless you are in a really deep league.

[Ray_T 740]

also worth noting,  everyone knows where the top Defenses rank

but if you are one of those guys who waits on a Defense until the last or second to last round, you should strongly consider chicago.

if you look at what this defense did after they acquired Sweat,  it was pretty good.  pro rated, would make them top 10.

now that Defense had the misfortune of having an offense that wasnt very good.    if you now believe that offense will be good, thats a whole lot of time on the field for the defense that will simply vanish.    so we wont see a tired defense late in games.

and the defense also lost points because their offense turned the ball over to the other team in their own end of the field.   that also hurts the numbers of the defense.

so if you think this also gives the defense a boost, we are now looking at an even higher finish.   maybe top 8 or so with still some more upside possible depending on how good the offense actually is this year.