Derrick Henry 2025?

[prisoners 2]

One year remaining on his deal but he’s 31 with a million carries under his belt. Can he be a ff stud for one more season?

[cmh6476 1,010]

No

[weepaws 3,154]

Absolutely.   The Guy is amazing, he’s a dinosaur, he’s the last of the great non ppr Rbs.  

If the Ravens make it to the super bowl, he might retire win or lose.  

But if he returns, I would think the Ravens might work on their online, no rb on the Ravens is a challenge, yeah I’m still buying.  

[BufordT 427]

We'll see how healthy he comes out of this playoff run.  I have a feeling they've been holding him back this year.  I predict the Ravens shift the focal point of the offense to D Henry as opposed to Lamar.  DH is looking at 25-30 touches a game from here on out.  

[Ray_T 740]

Henry can Still play.  we can see that.   With players like him when they get to this age, its mostly about whether they can stay healthy.

its still hard as hell to tackle him.   and his game was never about speed.   Not really.   Its been about Power.    and that part of his game is still fine and will be for a while if he still plays.

with a guy like him it will be a nasty injury of sorts that will finish him off.    so its really about whether he can stay healthy.

[Showboat 252]

A lot can happen between now and the beginning of next season, but there is no reason to think Henry can't put up another respectable, if not spectacular, season or two (even though the wheels tend to fall off quickly for RBs).  Several backs have put up great numbers in their early 30s - Curtis Martin comes to mind.  I can also see Henry taking on a Marcus Allen/Jerome Bettis role somewhere before he retires.

[easilyscan 859]

He does have a lot of carries under his belt, but he's probably delivered as many big hits as he's taken because of his size. 

[Maximum Overkill 1,739]

On 1/4/2025 at 9:03 PM, prisoners said:

One year remaining on his deal but he’s 31 with a million carries under his belt. Can he be a ff stud for one more season?

Yes, He still has insane separation and burst, even blowing by CBs for huge runs. 

Even if he regresses he's still a top 10 RB at the worst. 

[gridiron whirlwinds 9]

On 1/5/2025 at 2:55 PM, Showboat said:

A lot can happen between now and the beginning of next season, but there is no reason to think Henry can't put up another respectable, if not spectacular, season or two (even though the wheels tend to fall off quickly for RBs).  Several backs have put up great numbers in their early 30s - Curtis Martin comes to mind.  I can also see Henry taking on a Marcus Allen/Jerome Bettis role somewhere before he retires.

Yes sir, my thoughts exactly.

 

[Ray_T 740]

On 1/7/2025 at 5:03 AM, Maximum Overkill said:

Yes, He still has insane separation and burst, even blowing by CBs for huge runs. 

Even if he regresses he's still a top 10 RB at the worst. 

and I do think we will see some regression.

due to his age, hes not a guy I'd take early in the first round even though this years numbers likely warrant that.

for me, hes probably a 2nd round pick.   thing about RB's is when the wheels fall off it can somethimes happen quickly.   losing a 2nd round pick to injury likely doesnt devastate your team if you draft well.  but Losing a first round pick can have that effect.

risk wise, he shouldnt be a first rounder.  but he will probably go in the first round.

[weepaws 3,154]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

and I do think we will see some regression.

due to his age, hes not a guy I'd take early in the first round even though this years numbers likely warrant that.

for me, hes probably a 2nd round pick.   thing about RB's is when the wheels fall off it can somethimes happen quickly.   losing a 2nd round pick to injury likely doesnt devastate your team if you draft well.  but Losing a first round pick can have that effect.

risk wise, he shouldnt be a first rounder.  but he will probably go in the first round.

Most said that about him going into this season.  

[Ray_T 740]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Most said that about him going into this season.  

I was less concerned about it because he was moving to a team with a far superior offensive line.   so I figured that would offset any decline in his skillset.

but as they say we all get told one day we cannot play the game anymore.  some of us find out at 16, some of us at 35 or even older.  but we are all told.

I do think Henry is a bit unique in that his game is not dependent on speed like most RB's.   hes a power runner.   and I dont think the power has gone away.  but sooner or later he will slow to a point where it matters.

hes definitely at a point in his career where his skills will be in decline.  what we dont know is if it will be a gradual slope or a steep one.   From a risk perspective its fairly risky.  I dont like taking that level of risk in my first round pick.   I always look at my top picks and try to aim for a first round pick that is high upside and low risk.  thats what a first round pick should be.

Henry likely is still high upside, but due to age, he is a moderate risk.  for me that knocks him into the second round.   That likely means I wont get him.  Hes probably still a good pick, dont get me wrong.  but my level of certainty on that is not what it was last year.   hes now one year older.   so thats higher risk.  no matter how you slice it.

I might be right, I might be wrong.   we wont know for sure until they play out the season.

 

[DocNiner 67]

On 1/4/2025 at 9:03 PM, prisoners said:

One year remaining on his deal but he’s 31 with a million carries under his belt. Can he be a ff stud for one more season?

Yes, he can be a relevant fantasy stud for 2025. Yes, he's 31 but I'd take him over a lot of other rbs that are younger than him. He may lose some burst but his power will still be there and with Lamar also toting the rock Henry won't be forced to carry the rock 35 plus times a game. He can still produce with even less than 26 carries a game. He may not win you a league championship but he'll definitely produce enough to be an RB1 on your roster.

[weepaws 3,154]

If Henry can, And I think he can , produce likes rb1 next season, he’s a league winner imo.  

[polecatt 474]

He had the 2nd best season of his career in 2024.

He had 3 consecutive games with 135+ yds to close out the season. Of course we still have the playoffs to go but unless he tears his ACL or something it shouldn't be a big thing.

I don't see any reason to think he won't be one of the better RBs in the NFL again in 2025.

That said, I don't think anyone will be surprised if Father Time suddenly catches up to him.

Even though they're playing 17 games now, with the softening of the rules, I think we can expect some of these longevity standards of the past to wither away a bit. Some RBs lasting a bit longer than typical could be a more common thing going forward.

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

Unless the Ravens make a move in the off-season that tells me that they're going to reduce his workload, I will still see him as an RB1 next year.

 

If he runs for 400 less yards and scores 5 less TD's next year, that's 70 points less than this year.  Based on this years' totals, that would make him RB7.

[Ray_T 740]

6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Unless the Ravens make a move in the off-season that tells me that they're going to reduce his workload, I will still see him as an RB1 next year.

 

If he runs for 400 less yards and scores 5 less TD's next year, that's 70 points less than this year.  Based on this years' totals, that would make him RB7.

which places him at the end of round 1 or early in round 2.(probably early round 2)

[TBayXXXVII 2,482]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

which places him at the end of round 1 or early in round 2.

Yeah, most likely.

[Ray_T 740]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah, most likely.

yeah, most RB-even HOF RB dont have seasons like that in back to back years.    if they do it doesnt happen often and certainly  not at the age of 30.

I like that estimate as I do think hes likely  somewhere between the #5 and #10 RB next year.   Still very good.  just not at the level he was at this year.

[weepaws 3,154]

14 team non ppr league,he’s going to go mid of rd one. 

[weepaws 3,154]

Wow, another outstanding game.