Illegal Immigration and the Impact on National Home Prices

[TimHauck 2,878]

I’ve seen it stated here (without evidence of course) that the mass deportations will solve the housing affordability crisis.

I don’t understand how people can actually think this with a straight face.  

I’ve acknowledged that illegal immigration surely had some localized impacts on home prices & rents, but it’s mainly going to be at the lowest price levels, and of course only in areas where the illegals are actually going to (yet in 2020-2022 prices went up pretty much everywhere).  More competition for cheap apartments in higher-crime areas isn’t going to lead to suburban homes costing $750K+.  

Here is some data with more reasons it’s likely not illegal immigration driving increased housing costs on a national basis:

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/role-recent-immigrant-surge-housing-costs

The surge in housing prices was driven by the pandemic in 2020, when immigration was at its lowest levels.  And actually cooled  down in 2023, despite the continued surge in immigration.  

And in 2024, several cities with large illegal immigrant populations, such as Houston and Tampa, saw no essentially increase or in the case of Tampa, a decline in home prices.

https://www.fastcompany.com/91279086/housing-market-shift-where-home-prices-are-starting-to-fall

IMO, if home prices come down in the next few years, it’s going to be driven by increases in unemployment.  Of course I know if that happens people will claim it was because of mass deportations.

But sticking to the present, I’m curious to see if anyone has any actual data to back up the claim that illegal immigration is a major factor in national home prices.

[TimHauck 2,878]

And what I listed above isn’t even accounting for the fact that the use of illegal immigrants in the construction industry helps keeps costs from going even higher.  I think even @Strike would agree with that.

[seafoam1 3,034]

Mass deportation solves many crimes. Including ILLEGALS being here.

The rest of your whining, who focking cares? 

[TimHauck 2,878]

4 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Mass deportation solves many crimes. Including ILLEGALS being here.

The rest of your whining, who focking cares? 

Who cares about home prices?

lol

[seafoam1 3,034]

Just now, TimHauck said:

Who cares about home prices?

lol

Look at you reacting to a moment in time. Just like squid who sold off his investments in February of this year. Because TRUMP!! 

You all just are emotional wrecks. 

[5-Points 3,536]

I fail to see how 10's of millions of people, taking up existing housing inventory, would not have an impact on housing prices. 

Fewer available homes drives prices up. 

Its not rocket surgery. 

[TimHauck 2,878]

Just now, 5-Points said:

I fail to see how 10's of millions of people, taking up existing housing inventory, would not have an impact on housing prices. 

Fewer available homes drives prices up. 

It’s not rocket surgery. 

“An” impact?  Sure.  The primary driver?  Unlikely, especially when you consider they also help in increasing the supply.

 

[5-Points 3,536]

5 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

“An” impact?  Sure.  The primary driver?  Unlikely, especially when you consider they also help in increasing the supply.

 

"Illegal Immigration and the Impact on National Home Prices"

I didn't see the words "primary driver" in your thread title. 

However, the primary driver of real estate prices is supply vs demand and I just explained why 10's of millions of people, taking up existing real estate inventory, would increase the price of the remaining inventory. 

 

 

[Voltaire 5,317]

It occurs to me that removing 3000 migrants a day would put downward pressure on the housing market but based on the extensive research conducted by Reggie White, he would probably agree with you. According to Reggie, the impact on housing of deporting so many illegal immigrants could be significantly lower than it would seem.

White Stuns Lawmakers With Speech - CBS News

[5-Points 3,536]

8 minutes ago, Voltaire said:

It occurs to me that removing 3000 migrants a day would put downward pressure on the housing market but based on the extensive research conducted by Reggie White, he would probably agree with you. According to Reggie, the impact on housing of deporting so many illegal immigrants could be significantly lower than it would seem.

White Stuns Lawmakers With Speech - CBS News

Even if you put 30 of them in a home, that's a million homes off the market. 

Thats going to impact prices. 

[TimHauck 2,878]

11 minutes ago, 5-Points said:

"Illegal Immigration and the Impact on National Home Prices"

I didn't see the words "primary driver" in your thread title. 

However, the primary driver of real estate prices is supply vs demand and I just explained why 10's of millions of people, taking up existing real estate inventory, would increase the price of the remaining inventory. 

 

 

Did you bother to read any of the body of the thread or do you form all your conclusions based on titles?  Because in it I literally admitted there was “an” impact, but it’s going to be focused in areas where more of the illegals are actually going (both in geography and in the types of housing).

If you’re looking for a 1-bedroom apartment in a high crime area of LA, you might be in luck.  If you’re looking for a single-family home in rural Indiana, I think you’re going to be disappointed if you think mass deportations are going to impact home prices.

Will you acknowledge that illegals also help increase the supply?   So it’s certainly possible (maybe likely) that those single-family homes that most of the people that voted for mass deportations are looking for, will actually go up in price due to mass deportations.  Again, barring a recession that leads to significant job losses. That’s ultimately the biggest factor in home prices IMO, and the continued low unemployment is a major driver in home prices staying high.

[HellToupee 1,783]

There is no doubt illegals drove up rent $$ which logically would carry over to home sales

[iam90sbaby 2,611]

I wouldn’t care if illegals made housing cheaper, I don’t want them here because I don’t like them. Deport.

[RLLD 4,232]

Anyone want to venture a guess what happens when demand is lowered with fewer buyers in the market?

[Voltaire 5,317]

15 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

  So it’s certainly possible (maybe likely) that those single-family homes that most of the people that voted for mass deportations are looking for, will actually go up in price due to mass deportations.

I cannot connect the dots on how mass deportations would make it likely that single family homes would go up rather than likely down in price.

Supply steady / demand down seems to = lower prices to me.

[Voltaire 5,317]

16 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

 

If you’re looking for a 1-bedroom apartment in a high crime area of LA, you might be in luck.

Democrats who live in safe gated communities will need your help to figure out why law abiding minorities in high crime areas are increasingly voting Republican.

[5-Points 3,536]

8 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Did you bother to read any of the body of the thread or do you form all your conclusions based on titles?  Because in it I literally admitted there was “an” impact, but it’s going to be focused in areas where more of the illegals are actually going (both in geography and in the types of housing).

If you’re looking for a 1-bedroom apartment in a high crime area of LA, you might be in luck.  If you’re looking for a single-family home in rural Indiana, I think you’re going to be disappointed if you think mass deportations are going to impact home prices.

Will you acknowledge that illegals also help increase the supply?   So it’s certainly possible (maybe likely) that those single-family homes that most of the people that voted for mass deportations are looking for, will actually go up in price due to mass deportations.  Again, barring a recession that leads to significant job losses. That’s ultimately the biggest factor in home prices IMO, and the continued low unemployment is a major driver in home prices staying high.

I told you why illegals impact real estate prices. You moved the goalposts to "primary driver." 

And once again, the primary driver of real estate prices is supply vs demand. 

When you have 30 million people occupying available housing, it drives prices up. 

When you remove those people, thereby freeing up that inventory, it would stand to reason that prices would come down, at least in the short term. 

Also, by freeing up that inventory, it lowers the demand for new construction because the supply outweighs the demand. So the impact of removing illegals who work in construction isn't a concern. It also opens the door for legal citizens to obtain those jobs, thus lowering the unemployment rate. 

[5-Points 3,536]

15 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Anyone want to venture a guess what happens when demand is lowered with fewer buyers in the market?

Buyer's market.

[TimHauck 2,878]

16 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Anyone want to venture a guess what happens when demand is lowered with fewer buyers in the market?

There are two components to supply & demand, why are you only theorizing about the impact of one of them?

[TimHauck 2,878]

10 minutes ago, Voltaire said:

I cannot connect the dots on how mass deportations would make it likely that single family homes would go up rather than likely down in price.

Supply steady / demand down seems to = lower prices to me.

Why do you assume supply would be steady?  Illegals are a major contributor to construction labor.  Even if they don’t get deported, many are afraid to show up to jobs now. 

And again, demand will really only be down  at the lower price levels, and only in geographies where they have a significant presence.  Yet prices had went up nearly everywhere and in all price brackets.

[TimHauck 2,878]

9 minutes ago, 5-Points said:

I told you why illegals impact real estate prices. You moved the goalposts to "primary driver." 

And once again, the primary driver of real estate prices is supply vs demand. 

When you have 30 million people occupying available housing, it drives prices up. 

When you remove those people, thereby freeing up that inventory, it would stand to reason that prices would come down, at least in the short term. 

Also, by freeing up that inventory, it lowers the demand for new construction because the supply outweighs the demand. So the impact of removing illegals who work in construction isn't a concern. It also opens the door for legal citizens to obtain those jobs, thus lowering the unemployment rate. 

I didn’t move any goalposts.  This was my first sentence:

“I’ve seen it stated here (without evidence of course) that the mass deportations will solve the housing affordability crisis.”
 

Clearly, when someone makes that statement they are saying that illegal immigration is the primary driver (well except maybe @EternalShinyAndChrome, he likes saying things then denying their meanings).

And even in your scenario where the demand for new construction is lowered, that wouldn’t necessarily mean prices come down, it could just mean demand and supply come down the same amount so prices stay the same.

[Voltaire 5,317]

3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Why do you assume supply would be steady?  Illegals are a major contributor to construction labor.  Even if they don’t get deported, many are afraid to show up to jobs now. 

And again, demand will really only be down  at the lower price levels, and only in geographies where they have a significant presence.  Yet prices had went up nearly everywhere and in all price brackets.

Ah! new construction and their major representation in that field.... got it. Yeah, solid point. I hadn't considered that angle. Thanks.

[TimHauck 2,878]

So, several replies so far, common theme being theories and “dur, it’s common sense!”

No data yet.  I was demanded to provide evidence for things I thought were common sense (which I did), let’s see some data for these theories.  And “millions of additional people came into the country!” isn’t data.

[5-Points 3,536]

4 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I didn’t move any goalposts.  This was my first sentence:

“I’ve seen it stated here (without evidence of course) that the mass deportations will solve the housing affordability crisis.”
 

Clearly, when someone makes that statement they are saying that illegal immigration is the primary driver (well except maybe @EternalShinyAndChrome, he likes saying things then denying their meanings).

And even in your scenario where the demand for new construction is lowered, that wouldn’t necessarily mean prices come down, it could just mean demand and supply come down the same amount so prices stay the same.

Yes, you did. Its right there for everybody to see. I told you why/how 30 million illegals occupying available housing would drive prices up. You then pivoted to "primary driver."

 

Prices fall when supply outweighs demand. Prices rise when demand outweighs supply. 

Removing illegals who occupy existing supply increases supply thereby reducing demand pressure, for a time. And, as a result, lowers prices, allowing new home buyers to enter the market. 

Builders don't build new homes in an area where supply outweighs demand so prices in those areas will increase over time as the available supply diminishes. 

 

[TimHauck 2,878]

1 minute ago, 5-Points said:

Yes, you did. Its right there for everybody to see. I told you why/how 30 million illegals occupying available housing would drive prices up. You then pivoted to "primary driver."

 

Prices fall when supply outweighs demand. Prices rise when demand outweighs supply. 

Removing illegals who occupy existing supply increases supply thereby reducing demand pressure, for a time. And, as a result, lowers prices, allowing new home buyers to enter the market. 

Builders don't build new homes in an area where supply outweighs demand so prices in those areas will increase over time as the available supply diminishes. 

 

You think illegals are buying new construction? Lololol

[5-Points 3,536]

8 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

You think illegals are buying new construction? Lololol

You like making sh!t up? 

Have fun with that. 

[squistion 2,203]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

Did you bother to read any of the body of the thread or do you form all your conclusions based on titles?  Because in it I literally admitted there was “an” impact, but it’s going to be focused in areas where more of the illegals are actually going (both in geography and in the types of housing).

If you’re looking for a 1-bedroom apartment in a high crime area of LA, you might be in luck.  If you’re looking for a single-family home in rural Indiana, I think you’re going to be disappointed if you think mass deportations are going to impact home prices.

Yes, this would indirectly impact home prices if rental prices drop due to supply and demand. But as you noted, where I am at, it would likely be in the lower income Latino areas of Los Angeles like East L.A. and probablly single bedroom apartments (the undocumented often live together to save money (that they probably send back to their families),. 

[TimHauck 2,878]

Just now, 5-Points said:

You like making sh!t up? 

Have fun with that. 

You’ve yet to provide any data to back up your claim. 

I suppose your theory is more demand at the lower levels increases prices at all levels?  There may be a tiny smidgeon of that, but 1) it doesn’t explain prices going up at similar rates in areas where there are few illegals, and more recently yet before Trump, prices in areas with many illegals going down. And 2) more likely, more demand at the lower levels just pushes a lot of the others looking for similar-priced inventory out of the market altogether by living with roommates or family.  

So yes, as I stated from the very beginning, mass deportations may help the affordability of Americans looking for low priced housing in areas with a lot of illegals, but that’s about it.  But it won’t bring down prices for the overwhelming majority of Americans, and might even increase them.

[Maximum Overkill 1,998]

2 hours ago, TimHauck said:

don’t understand how people can actually think this with a straight face

So you want Slave Labor to build cheaper homes? They won't hire Americans because they don't want to pay a fair rate. 

Are you seriously under a rock??? It's slave labor and you support it. 

[TimHauck 2,878]

9 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

So you want Slave Labor to build cheaper homes? They won't hire Americans because they don't want to pay a fair rate. 

Are you seriously under a rock??? It's slave labor and you support it. 

I was not commenting about my opinion on “slave labor,” simply stating that it keeps prices from going even higher 

[Maximum Overkill 1,998]

5 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I was not commenting about my opinion on “slave labor,” simply stating that it keeps prices from going even higher 

And why is that??? 

[TimHauck 2,878]

10 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

And why is that??? 

Why is what?

[Maximum Overkill 1,998]

Just now, TimHauck said:

Why is what?

Why would home prices soar without low wage slave labor? 

[TimHauck 2,878]

1 hour ago, Voltaire said:

Democrats who live in safe gated communities will need your help to figure out why law abiding minorities in high crime areas are increasingly voting Republican.

Well on the subject, I’ll be interested to see if this trend plays out among Hispanics over the next few years

[TimHauck 2,878]

Just now, Maximum Overkill said:

Why would home prices soar without low wage slave labor? 

I think you just answered your own question.

Some contractors might also argue they’re more skilled and more efficient.

[iam90sbaby 2,611]

2 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I think you just answered your own question.

Some contractors might also argue they’re more skilled and more efficient.

That isn’t how the construction industry works. The illegals don’t work for a company. They work for a sub crew and get subbed out work. Construction companies with in house employees do better work 100000% of the time. 🪖

[Maximum Overkill 1,998]

Just now, TimHauck said:

I think you just answered your own question.

Some contractors might also argue they’re more skilled and more efficient.

They're not, they're cheaper and cheaper made. 

No American can live off of $15 and hour. It's all about cheap slave labor. And if you really cared about ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS then that would be your argument. Not "keep them working so we can have cheaper homes". 

I gotta call you out, you're a fraud. You care about YOU, not ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS.  

[5-Points 3,536]

51 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

You’ve yet to provide any data to back up your claim. 

I suppose your theory is more demand at the lower levels increases prices at all levels?  There may be a tiny smidgeon of that, but 1) it doesn’t explain prices going up at similar rates in areas where there are few illegals, and more recently yet before Trump, prices in areas with many illegals going down. And 2) more likely, more demand at the lower levels just pushes a lot of the others looking for similar-priced inventory out of the market altogether by living with roommates or family.  

So yes, as I stated from the very beginning, mass deportations may help the affordability of Americans looking for low priced housing in areas with a lot of illegals, but that’s about it.  But it won’t bring down prices for the overwhelming majority of Americans, and might even increase them.

Of course it does. 

First time home buyers buy in less expensive neighborhoods. They then gain equity in those properties and, very often, sell those homes and move to better, more expensive neighborhoods. Which drives prices up in those neighborhoods. 

Meanwhile, the less expensive neighborhoods they left, become increasingly inhabited by illegals and other lower income individuals, through section 8 and other programs and the neighborhood goes to sh!t. Which drives property values down because nobody wants to live there. 

You're trying too hard to not understand the obvious. 

 

 

[squistion 2,203]

38 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Well on the subject, I’ll be interested to see if this trend plays out among Hispanics over the next few years

If the outrage we have seen from the Latino communties where the ICE raids are taking place is any indication, there should be a major shift to Democrats in the 2026 mid-term elections. 

[MDC 7,440]

1 hour ago, Maximum Overkill said:

They're not, they're cheaper and cheaper made. 

No American can live off of $15 and hour. It's all about cheap slave labor. And if you really cared about ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS then that would be your argument. Not "keep them working so we can have cheaper homes". 

I gotta call you out, you're a fraud. You care about YOU, not ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS.  

Let me get this straight: The guy who spent years complaining about inflation and campaigned on lowering costs is going to sell Americans on higher costs? All while he accepts foreign bribes, guts Medicaid and runs a bitcoin grift from the White House.

I bet Congressional Republicans can’t wait to run on this bold strategy in 2026!