GobbleDog

It used to be the death nail even for the best. The wave of horses crowding them out was just too much. HOWEVER, they changed the starting gate in 2020 so those inside horses weren't staring straight at the rail like they used to. But there haven't been any really good horses in the #1 or #2 posts over the past 4 years so it's hard to tell... Interestingly though, Two Phills (with long odds) had the #3 post last year and finished 2nd. Epicenter had short odds and was #3 post in 2022... finished 2nd. So maybe it has helped. Seirra Leone is without question a GREAT horse. If anyone can do it, he can. Especially with his come-back style. But until I see it... I won't bet it. #3 post I'd be a little more inclined, not #2.

Japs have attacked the Derby five times with six horses. '95 Ski Captain ... 14th '16 Lani ... 9th '19 Master Fencer ... 6th '22 Crown Pride ... 13th '23 Mandarin Hero ... 12th '23 Derma Sotgake ... 6th

I'm a cheapskate when it comes to betting. Going to bet Fierceness $20 win/$20 place/$20 show and sprinkle $3 on Just a Touch win/place/show. Total wager $69. Won't win a lot, but minimal risk. Exoctic bets terrify me with a 20 horse field... but if I did I'd probably "key" my favorite to win... with 5-6 horses I like underneath. For me that would be: Just A Touch/ Stronghold/ Catching Freedom/ Honor Marie/ Track Phantom/ Domestic Product. Exacta wise... Fierceness / 8, 18, 4, 7, 12, 15.... $6 wager. Trifecta wise... Fierceness / 8, 18, 4, 7, 12, 15 (boxed underneath)... $30 wager But I prefer good old win/place/show. Hard enough picking the winner... picking 2nd and 3rd places too - with 20 horses.?. Makes my head hurt.

"Speed figures" I quote are all from Equibase which shows "E Speed" - algorithm mixing actual time/track conditions/whatnot. Some articles quote similar, but slightly different numbers - probably Beyer. Regardless, apples-to-apples it's a great way to compare horses. Have to admit I'm concerned about the 5 major prep race qualification this year. I really love Fierceness and Just A Touch. Sierra Leone is incredible, but that post position is a killer. Beyond them... the remaining horses are suspect. Might be one of those odd years the qualification misses. But I'm sticking with it because it's done well for me, though not as confident as years past. Shocking the lack of great horses out of Santa Anita for the first time in forever. Although maybe a blessing because that always makes the widdling more difficult.

In 2022, my Atlanta Braves lost out trying to keep Freddie Freeman who was 32 yo at the time. They offered him a ton of money, but not the 6-year deal the Dodgers gave him. Before that contract is over, he'll be 39 yo and no way still worth $27 mill / year. The Dodgers don't care. Monopoly money. A salary cap in MLB would be nice, if not to level the playing field, at least for teams to hold on to fan-favorite players.

Alright, let’s get down to business gentlemen. Same qualifier as always - Eliminate any horse not finishing in the top 2 in the five major prep races. Accounts for 15 of last 21 Derby winners (16 if not Medina Spirit dq). Wood Memorial 1. Resilience 2. Society Man Arkansas Derby 1. Muth Bob Baffert horses ineligible – roids 2. Just Steel Blue Grass Stakes 1. Sierra Leone 2. Just A Touch Santa Anita Derby 1. Stronghold 2. Imagination Bob Baffert horses ineligible – roids dude Florida Derby 1. Fierceness 2. Catalytic ........................................................................... Down to 8. Let’s sniff the glue. (50-1) Society Man 2nd in Wood Memorial with a career best speed figure 99. Took four races to break maiden which explains ridiculous 107-1 odds at the Wood. Now has the #20 outside post which takes a mighty talented horse to overcome. My labradoodle has a better chance. (20-1) Just Steel 2nd in Arkansas at 33-1 odds with a shocking speed figure of 112. Prior 10 races - best speed of 99, achieved way back in his 3rd race ever.?. Late growth spurt maybe, but 11 races with only 2 wins (neither graded) is the resume of a Derby loser. Jockey is making his Derby debut. Good luck rookie. (30-1) Catalytic 2nd in Florida at 29-1 odds with a speed figure of 90. Won maiden first try, followed by two second places. Lightly raced and losing to Fierceness isn’t shameful. What is shameful is losing by 13.5 lengths while being in clear second the entire race. Just doesn’t have the speed to contend with the best. Desperately needs a Baffert injection. (20-1) Resilience won the Wood Memorial at 5-1 odds with a speed figure of 103. Took four races to break maiden, followed by a 4th in a Grd 2 race, and then the Wood Memorial. The jockey in those races – John Velazquez. Who’s the jockey in the Kentucky Derby? Not Velazquez who ditched this flea bag for a better prospect. …………………………………………………….. Down to 4. Let’s spitball (20-1) Stronghold won the prestigious Santa Anita at 2-1 odds. 6 starts – 3 wins/3 seconds. Raced in four Graded races, trained by Todd Pletcher, decent post position. How could that resume have such Derby odds? Because this year’s Santa Anita crop wasn’t all that. Speed figures improved every race, but only peaked at 99 in Santa and down the stretch… rather slow. Probably finishes near the top, but win? Meh. (3-1) Sierra Leone won the Blue Grass at 2-1 odds. 4 starts – 3 wins/1 second. Won maiden first try with impressive 89 speed, then two Grd 2 races, before finishing with a 107 speed at the Blue. Wins on grass, dirt and slop. Definitely one of the best horses in this race. Respected Chad Brown trainer (surprisingly 0 for 7 in Derby). What’s not to like? A bit concerning his slow starts in recent races required huge comebacks, which won’t be as easy in a 20-horse field. But the deal-breaker – the #2 post. Many elites have tried and failed. Either run like hell to avoid pack (and get exhausted) or slide back and try navigating around a crowded field while making a huge comeback. Last horse to win Derby from #3 post or lower – 1998 Real Quiet (#3). Last Bluegrass horse to win Derby – 1991 Strike the Gold. If Sierra overcomes all that and still wins this thing, hats off – hope he gets a foot fungus. ………………………………………………………….. Then there were two (10-1) Just A Touch 2nd in the Blue Grass at 3-1 odds with a 105 speed figure. 3 starts – 1 win/2 seconds. Won maiden first try with 100 speed, followed by second in Grd 3 race, then second at Blue by only 1.5 lengths behind Sierra. Brad Cox trained and great post at #8. Years back I’d have quickly ditched this Apollo Cursed horse for not racing as a two year old, but that curse is now officially dead (Apollo 1882, Justify 2018, Mage 2023). Horse racing has changed. This horse is clearly among the top ‘24 contenders. Still, very lightly raced and trying to overcome the Blue Grass drought at the Derby (33 years). But I wouldn’t try to talk anyone out of him – has the talent/trainer/post position to do it. Therefore, the winner of the 150th Running of the Kentucky Derby will be (3-1) Fierceness won Florida at 1-1 odds with a 110 speed figure. 5 starts – 3 wins/1 third. Won maiden with a stellar 102 speed; Crapped next Grd 1 race finishing 7th (bad start); Won next Grd 1 with 110 speed; Crapped next Grd 3 race finishing 3rd (bad start). Destroyed field at Florida winning by 13.5 lengths. Todd Pletcher trained. The fastest horse at the Derby by any speed measure and distance shouldn’t be an issue. The only knock is he hasn’t won back to back. Chalk those up to bad starts and he’s clearly the one to beat. The outer post should certainly help the starting issues. #17 has never actually won the Derby, but they didn’t start racing 20 horses til 1975 and he’ll technically be exiting the 16th post since Encino got scratched. Finally, remember John Velazquez ditching Resilience? Guess who he chose. I don’t always pick the favorite, I just widdle down the field and take what’s left. But this helps – in 2013 Derby qualification rules changed to a point system to reduce speedster horses. Before 2013 no favorite had won the Derby in over 20 years (wore out chasing speedsters). But in 2013, '14, '15, '16, '17 and '18.... the favorite won every Derby. The favorite has now finished top three in 10 of the last 11 races. Of the major prep races, the Florida Derby and Santa Anita have dominated Kentucky in recent years with 9 of 16 last Derby winners having previously won or placed in those races (10 if not Medina Spirit dq). Good luck everyone!

I posted this last year. Inside booth view of Larry Collmus calling the 2022 Derby - the year Rich Strike won at 80:1 odds... 2nd biggest longshot in Derby history. The superfecta paid over $321,000. Skip to 1:30 to see them coming down the stretch. Great video.

1) Dornoch 20-1 11) Forever Young 10-1 2) Sierra Leone 3-1 12) Track Phantom 20-1 3) Mystik Dan 20-1 13) West Saratoga 50-1 4) Catching Freedom 8-1 14) Endlessly 30-1 5) Catalytic 30-1 15) Domestic Product 30-1 6) Just Steel 20-1 16) Grand Mo the First 50-1 7) Honor Marie 20-1 17) Fierceness 3-1 8)) Just a Touch 10-1 18) Stronghold 20-1 9) Encino 20-1 Scrtch 19) Resilience 20-1 10) T O Password 30-1 20) Society Man 50-1 21) Epic Ride 50-1 Post time - Saturday May 4, 6:57 pm The sun shines bright on my ole Kentucky home!

I'm still here El Guapo!

The Falcons just signed Kurt Cousins to a $180 mil 4 year contract.... and turn around a draft a 23 yo QB with their #1 pick.?. What? The great thing about a good rookie QB is they don't count much against the cap for 4 years. By the time Penix does start, he'll be at least 27 yo and they still won't know if he's any good. Why the hell did they draft him? Why not a lineman to protect Cousins, or another offensive weapon, or a great defensive player.?. Nope, a qb to hold a clip board for 4 years. Insane.

If the REGULAR SEASON is OVER and a team is STILL PLAYING trying to ADVANCE in the playoffs... it's a playoff game. What difference does it make what the NBA calls it? "The NBA officially names it a play-in game, so it's not really a playoff game." You're really taking that stance?

I didn't know that. They played an entire regular season to eliminate 5 teams? Might as well demote those five to a lower league like soccer relegation.

By that logic, the NFL Wildcard round isn't a playoff game - it's a play-in game!

MLB 12 playoff teams from 30 - 40% NFL 14 playoff teams from 32 - 43.8% NHL 16 playoff teams from 32 - 50% NBA 16 playoff teams from 30 - 53.3% ............................................................. MLB has it right. Tonight's NBA playoff game: Atlanta Hawks 36-46 vs Chicago Bulls 39-43 Good grief

I still flip to NPR everyone once in a while (sport radio goes commercial) and have to admit it seems I often catch mid-interview... "so, what was it like transitioning to a woman" or "how much racism did you feel while being an illegal immigrant", etc. Everything is gay, trany or racist. Ugh. Regardless of political leaning... surprised anyone listens to that crap.