Who is definitely on your Do Not Draft list for 2016?

[DaBeerz 88]

There are several RB I can think of who should be.

 

What criteria do you use to add a player to DND list, and who is for sure staying on your list for 2016?

 

[petekrum 20]

You should probably change the question to who won't you draft at or near their current ADP. I have lots of guys in that category but there should be almost nobody you won't draft if they fall far enough. For example, I won't touch Devante Freeman in the first round, where he will most likely go, but if he fell to later in the second I would consider him.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Unless Lacy gets in shape, no thanks. And I will probably shy away from taking TE's too early, even Gronk. They get hurt as much as RB's. But Dez Bryant tops the list.

[DaBeerz 88]

You should probably change the question to who won't you draft at or near their current ADP. I have lots of guys in that category but there should be almost nobody you won't draft if they fall far enough. For example, I won't touch Devante Freeman in the first round, where he will most likely go, but if he fell to later in the second I would consider him.

 

I assume they won't as a lot of people I draft with don't make DND lists and assume a player will go at or near their ADP without falling significantly in the draft. Operate on the assumption if you don't draft around ADP, you won't get them, who would you pass on?

[weepaws 2,460]

All Running backs .

[DaBeerz 88]

Unless Lacy gets in shape, no thanks. And I will probably shy away from taking TE's too early, even Gronk. They get hurt as much as RB's. But Dez Bryant tops the list.

 

I have Forte - Too old, FA, will have to learn a new system (Chicago should go with Langford) coming off a down year with injury. Someone will overdraft him and he'll disappoint.

 

I agree with Lacy, too big and slow no explosiveness. I'm even considering adding AR to the list, he was going to be my keeper this year but I might dump him.

 

All Denver RB. (I had CJA on my list in 2015).

 

Bryant and Romo will go too early and both are too big of a risk.

 

L. Bell obviously won't be in form for 2016.

 

J. Charles will never regain form but someone will take him on name value if he is playing by 2016.

 

J. Hill - Never secured the starter role and was drafted in R2 in most leagues. Not touching him, Bernard was better value in PPR formats anyway.

 

McCoy - too old and brittle now, will never regain the form he showed with the Eagles

 

C. Johnson - won't be a top 10 WR again but people will overvalue and draft him as such.

[petekrum 20]

I won't have Cam. Love the guy, but he figures to be the first QB off the board, late first, early second and there is no value there.

[DaBeerz 88]

I won't have Cam. Love the guy, but he figures to be the first QB off the board, late first, early second and there is no value there.

 

 

He was the top scoring FF QB by a 60+ point margin in my league and he's healthy. He's top 5 for passing TD's plus add in the 10 rushing TDs, that's difficult to ignore.

 

He probably won't have the same performance next year, but do you expect a significant drop off?

[weepaws 2,460]

No one , I don't have a do not draft list , don't know how you can have one , you might not want to draft a player based on is adp but a do not draft list nope .

[DaBeerz 88]

No one , I don't have a do not draft list , don't know how you can have one , you might not want to draft a player based on is adp but a do not draft list nope .

 

A DND list has saved me from plenty of busts. Generally this just applies to guys who might come up in the first 3 or 4 rounds, after that who cares. Unless you have a grudge against a certain player, (like CJ Spiller was always on my DND list). Anyway the list is to keep you focused during the draft so you can ignore the latest hot pick that might swing your way which is tempting but you know will be bad in the long run.

[weepaws 2,460]

That's what a draft sheet is for , to keep one focus .

[DaBeerz 88]

That's what a draft sheet is for , to keep one focus .

 

Draft sheet that is custom made to exclude players you don't want, or significantly dropping players to rounds that are way higher than where they will realistically be drafted? Then you've effectively made a DND list.

[tanatastic 2,061]

No one , I don't have a do not draft list , don't know how you can have one , you might not want to draft a player based on is adp but a do not draft list nope .

DND lists are fine. They have more than saved me from drafting umpteen turds that people salivate over and trick people into thinking are good. Ball, Spiller etc. That old shark mentality of "everyone has a price as long as its value" is complete crap. Cheap turds are still turds who kill teams. Got Gerhart in rnd 6 last year and danced a jig? Kewl story, he was on my dnd and I wouldnt have touched him with a 30th round pick. Spiller in the 7th this year, championship!? Nope, not on my board at all. Saved a potential headache. Sure I instead drafted other headaches, but not him.

 

I always keep a dnd list and add to it each year and the accuracy has been really good. My actual draft picks not so much, but my dnd has been spot on.

 

Now there is always wiggle room for most guys. Sure I dont want Leveon Bell no1 overall but id take him at a value. Same with a vast majority of guys. DND should be used very sparingly and carefully. My list is usually 5-10 deep at most.

[weepaws 2,460]

No I made a list of ranking how I like a player per the postion he playes , not a list of someone I will not draft . Now I might not get to draft someone because he gets drafted by someone else , that does not mean he was not on a do not draft list .

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

I have Forte - Too old, FA, will have to learn a new system (Chicago should go with Langford) coming off a down year with injury. Someone will overdraft him and he'll disappoint.

 

I agree with Lacy, too big and slow no explosiveness. I'm even considering adding AR to the list, he was going to be my keeper this year but I might dump him.

 

All Denver RB. (I had CJA on my list in 2015).

 

Bryant and Romo will go too early and both are too big of a risk.

 

L. Bell obviously won't be in form for 2016.

 

J. Charles will never regain form but someone will take him on name value if he is playing by 2016.

 

J. Hill - Never secured the starter role and was drafted in R2 in most leagues. Not touching him, Bernard was better value in PPR formats anyway.

 

McCoy - too old and brittle now, will never regain the form he showed with the Eagles

 

C. Johnson - won't be a top 10 WR again but people will overvalue and draft him as such.

Why wont Bell be in form? He didnt tear his acl. This is a contract year for him. I will take him middle of the first.

[DaBeerz 88]

DND lists are fine. They have more than saved me from drafting umpteen turds that people salivate over and trick people into thinking are good. Ball, Spiller etc. That old shark mentality of "everyone has a price as long as its value" is complete crap. Cheap turds are still turds who kill teams. Got Gerhart in rnd 6 last year and danced a jig? Kewl story, he was on my dnd and I wouldnt have touched him with a 30th round pick. Spiller in the 7th this year, championship!? Nope, not on my board at all. Saved a potential headache. Sure I instead drafted other headaches, but not him.

 

I always keep a dnd list and add to it each year and the accuracy has been really good. My actual draft picks not so much, but my dnd has been spot on.

 

Now there is always wiggle room for most guys. Sure I dont want Leveon Bell no1 overall but id take him at a value. Same with a vast majority of guys. DND should be used very sparingly and carefully. My list is usually 5-10 deep at most.

 

Any chance you would share that list and your rationales for who are on it, I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on that.

 

Funny you mention Ball, I should have had him on DND and plowed ahead with the pick anyway. Cost me a lot. Spiller has always been on my list. Gerhart same thing.

 

I agree with your logic though, there are just some players I don't want and I don't care what round it is, they're a wasted pick.

[DaBeerz 88]

Why wont Bell be in form? He didnt tear his acl. This is a contract year for him. I will take him middle of the first.

 

I don't want RB with torn up (MCL) knees, and he will never live up to a first round pick.

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

Any chance you would share that list and your rationales for who are on it, I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on that.

Its outdated as of this offseason and obviously ill be updating it. But this is how iv had it for a couple years. I want to emphasize im not bragging. Iv drafted more busts and bums than I can count.

 

TRich- He blows and thats that. Sounds obvious but hes had various degrees of hype last few years.

 

Gerhart- The great white hope a few years ago. Anyone who got him in rnd 5 or later was coming here with trophy already held aloft in triumph. Penciling in 1100 8 like it was the sun setting and rising. Me? I saw a slow white dude on a bad offense that wasnt going to get first downs. 5th round? No thanks, id rather have an upside flier even with the last pick in the draft. Found a guy named Beckham, no biggie, he wouldnt even be playing for 4-6 weeks or at all maybe.

 

Spiller- Had an electric year a few ago and I brazenly added him to my list after that. Was it a risk? Yes but I just took a shot and didnt think they would catch lightning in a bottle and it paid off.

 

Montee Ball- I toot my horn around here sometimes that I had a thread proclaiming Ball would be a bust in July of his hyped offseason where he was a trendy 1st round pick. I know Denver better than that, its always the other guy who breaks out. Was it risky to not even want a 1st rounder even in rnd 8?!!!!! Sure, but again, it paid off. I want a breakout stud in rnd 8, not a bum. My 8th round rb this year was Freeman.

 

CJ Anderson- See Ball. Its the other guy in denver, year after year. CJ wasnt on my draft board, Hillman was and I got him in rnd 9 or so.

 

Crabtree- Obviously a whiff this year but after his big season with the niners I wasnt buying it. Was evicerated for ranking him below Boldin. Guess who finished with more points that year?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

I don't want RB with torn up (MCL) knees, and he will never live up to a first round pick.

He tore both knees? Thats news to me. So you have never drafted a running back who has had a torn ligament in his knee?

[tanatastic 2,061]

He tore both knees? Thats news to me. So you have never drafted a running back who has had a torn ligament in his knee?

If he had gotten through the season unscathed he's my top pick easily. As it is he goes back to back seasons with knee injuries. That's at least enough to put him out of the top 5 for me. He's becoming Arian Foster secretly.

[DaBeerz 88]

Its outdated as of this offseason and obviously ill be updating it. But this is how iv had it for a couple years. I want to emphasize im not bragging. Iv drafted more busts and bums than I can count.

 

TRich- He blows and thats that. Sounds obvious but hes had various degrees of hype last few years.

 

Gerhart- The great white hope a few years ago. Anyone who got him in rnd 5 or later was coming here with trophy already held aloft in triumph. Penciling in 1100 8 like it was the sun setting and rising. Me? I saw a slow white dude on a bad offense that wasnt going to get first downs. 5th round? No thanks, id rather have an upside flier even with the last pick in the draft. Found a guy named Beckham, no biggie, he wouldnt even be playing for 4-6 weeks or at all maybe.

 

Spiller- Had an electric year a few ago and I brazenly added him to my list after that. Was it a risk? Yes but I just took a shot and didnt think they would catch lightning in a bottle and it paid off.

 

Montee Ball- I toot my horn around here sometimes that I had a thread proclaiming Ball would be a bust in July of his hyped offseason where he was a trendy 1st round pick. I know Denver better than that, its always the other guy who breaks out. Was it risky to not even want a 1st rounder even in rnd 8?!!!!! Sure, but again, it paid off. I want a breakout stud in rnd 8, not a bum. My 8th round rb this year was Freeman.

 

CJ Anderson- See Ball. Its the other guy in denver, year after year. CJ wasnt on my draft board, Hillman was and I got him in rnd 9 or so.

 

Crabtree- Obviously a whiff this year but after his big season with the niners I wasnt buying it. Was evicerated for ranking him below Boldin. Guess who finished with more points that year?

Our lists are similar for last year with the exception of crabtree (he was on the WW in both my leagues for a while anyway). I'd like to do a DND list closer to the start of next season.

[Sho Nuff 719]

Evans would have to fall far. Just so inconsistent and will go too high for me to have that dude kill me again.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Evans would have to fall far. Just so inconsistent and will go too high for me to have that dude kill me again.

I actually like him as a value next season. He still had 1200yds and was a classic sophomore slump guy. Third year coming up, perfect for a storybook big season.

[DaBeerz 88]

I actually like him as a value next season. He still had 1200yds and was a classic sophomore slump guy. Third year coming up, perfect for a storybook big season.

 

I avoided all TB offensive players this year as the QB was a huge ??? at the time. Now it looks like the QB situation in TB will also improve, Winston seemed to have a decent rookie season despite the fact that I thought his maturity would cause him to be a huge bust, Manziel stole the show on that front. Winston needs to get his accuracy up, but he can play.

 

I would target Evans as a low end WR1 or solid WR2 in Rounds 4-6 with the assumption he would be a top 10 WR next year.

[Quickolas1 80]

I would target Evans in Rounds 4-6.

4 team league?

 

If no one is taking RBs, Evans is a late 1st / early 2nd rounder in a 12 team league.

[DaBeerz 88]

4 team league?

 

If no one is taking RBs, Evans is a late 1st / early 2nd rounder in a 12 team league.

He won't go that early. QB and DST heavy scoring for one, and he went early to mid third last year. He will drop a bit but not much he was 11th WR off the board and good WR are plentiful after this season. Maybe late 3rd early 4th. Almost every team go after a QB/RB/WR in the first 3 rounds but some also grab a defensive unit.

[cmh6476 752]

Peyton Manning

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

I avoided all TB offensive players this year as the QB was a huge ??? at the time. Now it looks like the QB situation in TB will also improve, Winston seemed to have a decent rookie season despite the fact that I thought his maturity would cause him to be a huge bust, Manziel stole the show on that front. Winston needs to get his accuracy up, but he can play.

 

I would target Evans as a low end WR1 or solid WR2 in Rounds 4-6 with the assumption he would be a top 10 WR next year.

Youre funny. Yeah just draft a guy who had 1200 yards in round 6ish. Ya know, where all the borderline WR1s hang out, especially in a zero rb era.

[Bills04 46]

There are definitely people I stay away from. Either performance drops off a cliff (P. Manning, late 2014), or I've been burned (Gerhart, in 2014). For 2016, I'll add MIA RB L. Miller to my list - *IF* he stays in MIA, who don't know how to use him. Same things with KC TE T. Kelce - and also RB J. Charles (he always has a few games a year, where Reid forgets to RUN THE DAMN BALL!!!). Also for 2016 - won't touch GB WR R. Cobb unless J. Nelson is COMPLETELY 100 percent back.

[phillygrrl08 139]

All NE RBs. Never know who BB is going to pick up off a practice squad. He is too fickle to predict.

[tanatastic 2,061]

4 team league?

 

If no one is taking RBs, Evans is a late 1st / early 2nd rounder in a 12 team league.

 

Youre funny. Yeah just draft a guy who had 1200 yards in round 6ish. Ya know, where all the borderline WR1s hang out, especially in a zero rb era.

You guys are off base here. He was taken in rnd 2-4 this year and thats with top 10 expectations. Now after a letdown your saying his stock will rise? No. I understand your saying thats because of all this supposed dramatic shift in how the first rounds will look next year but it wont. Come draft day we will settle down and have our sheets like always and the first round will largely look like it has with maybe 1 more wr taken over an rb. Evans isnt a 1st rounder this year when he was nowhere near that last year. I count at LEAST 5 rbs that are surefire 1st rounders this year so after 4-5 wrs and the inevitable qb or te taken, its 1 pick or so off of last year.

[phillygrrl08 139]

I think a better question might be which RBs are going to be bellcows that have a decent OLine?

 

Not sure of Leveon's health and DeAngelo's emergence

God only knows who ends up leading the Dallas run game

????? KC

????? Philly

Langford is interesting

Gurley is tops

What happens to David Johnson when CJ and Ellington are healthy?

Will Marshawn be back? Please don't start with the CMike noise again

Will the Browns get a real QB and with the return of J Gordon have a legit offense? Duke may be the man

JStew is solid

Is Foster hanging up the cleats?

Will Indy get another year out of Gore? What other crew of replacements will they assemble if they don't?

Is Miller gone? If so, will Ajayi be the man? Or Williams?

 

Avoiding all GB, NE, PHI, WAS, and DEN RBs

 

Too many unanswered questions to put a DND list together this early

[redsrback 30]

Cant help but think Lacy losses weight and looks good in pre-season and all the hype comes back

[tanatastic 2,061]

Cant help but think Lacy losses weight and looks good in pre-season and all the hype comes back

Absolutely this. Peoples memory is fresh now but wait 5 months and espn will be talking him up big time. "Well hes lost weight and looks better than ever, plus hes one of the few true bellcows in the league.".

[weepaws 2,460]

4 team league?

If no one is taking RBs, Evans is a late 1st / early 2nd rounder in a 12 team league.

He won't go that high .

[Super Cubs 132]

I think a better question might be which RBs are going to be bellcows that have a decent OLine?

 

 

What happens to David Johnson when CJ and Ellington are healthy?

 

 

Did CJ sign a multi year deal?

[weepaws 2,460]

Sorry but I'm still trying to understand a ( do not draft list ) Right now everyone is on my draft list , and than I will ranked them per postion amd the ones I miss out on do they become my do not draft list players ?

[weepaws 2,460]

I think a better question might be which RBs are going to be bellcows that have a decent OLine?

 

Not sure of Leveon's health and DeAngelo's emergence

God only knows who ends up leading the Dallas run game

????? KC

????? Philly

Langford is interesting

Gurley is tops

What happens to David Johnson when CJ and Ellington are healthy?

Will Marshawn be back? Please don't start with the CMike noise again

Will the Browns get a real QB and with the return of J Gordon have a legit offense? Duke may be the man

JStew is solid

Is Foster hanging up the cleats?

Will Indy get another year out of Gore? What other crew of replacements will they assemble if they don't?

Is Miller gone? If so, will Ajayi be the man? Or Williams?

 

Avoiding all GB, NE, PHI, WAS, and DEN RBs

 

Too many unanswered questions to put a DND list together this early

Right , I agree with this post .

[worm 34]

 

Did CJ sign a multi year deal?

No, he signed a 1-yr contract. Ellington will probably stick around for his last year but he's not reliable. I can see DJ being the man next season.

[petekrum 20]

He won't go that high .

He'll be gone by the end of the second in any league with competent owners.