Dan

Dan: 1.09- WR Malik Nabers, NYG 2.04- RB Kyren Williams, LAR 3.09- TE Trey McBride, Ari. 4.04- WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., Ari. 5.09- RB Isiah Pacheco, KC 6.04- WR Chris Olave, NO 7.09- WR Chris Godwin, TB 8.04- QB Bo Nix, Den. 9.09- WR Keon Coleman, Buf. 10.04- RB Rico Dowdle, Car. 11.09- QB C.J. Stroud, Hou. 12.04- K Chris Boswell, Pit. 13.09- RB Bhayshul Tuten, Jax. 14.04- RB Jaydon Blue, Dal. 15.09- D/ST, Detroit Lions 16.04- TE Zach Ertz, Was. Analysis: One of the most enjoyable aspects of this draft every year for me is drafting alongside Dan- a guy who clearly knows his stuff, but rarely tips his hand in terms of drafting with any sort of conventional wisdom. For example, who would dare drafting a wide receiver in the first round from a generally poor offensive team? Further, who would draft two Arizona Cardinals back-to-back in Rounds Three and Four? And, when filling in the depth at RB that will likely be sorely needed for success, who takes two rookies who may or not have any prominent role in their teams' gameplans this fall. In Dan's case, he did all of the above and it's the kind of quirkiness I have come to expect from him in this draft and also enjoy. Ultimately, I am not quite sure what to make of this team, but that's par for the course as far as Dan is concerned. He is potentially very strong at WR and TE, but the two Chris's are also coming off of injuries and one (Olave) may be playing with a greener-than-green rookie QB. As far as RB is concerned, Kyren Williams is a solid low-end RB1, but Isiah Pacheco looked bad last season after returning from injury. Questions abound for me here and I could go on and one with that, but let's move on. Key to No-Hassle Success: Most people expected more from Marvin Harrison, Jr. last season than he actually produced in the end and it would be fair then to call his rookie season at least a mild disappointment. I think for this team to ultimately contend, he has to take a significant step forward and become the "can't miss" player that he was initially projected to be. Nabers will likely see an uptick in his numbers simply by way of the Giants having to play catch up a lot and if Harrison does make that leap, what a duo of sophomore receivers he and Nabers would be. Elsewhere, I think Bo Nix has to duplicate his numbers from last season at the very least to make the confidence Dan has placed in him worthwhile. Stroud was an excellent safety net at that position, but Nix was drafted to be the "guy" on Dan's roster more weeks than not. Can he live up to that? We shall see. Favorite Pick: While none of Dan's first four picks could be considered a steal, they are all players who are very much still ascending with respect to their young careers. Kyren Williams should get a new contract before the start of the season, and I think that commitment on the Rams' part will carry over into heavy usage in 2025 and excellent output. Likewise, the contract signed by Trey McBride expresses a belief on the Cardinals' part that he is a special talent. His touchdown numbers should be SO much better this year than last and that makes him a dangerous asset. Finally and again, I loved the value of Stroud at 11.09. Least Favorite Pick: Not that there was much to choose from at the time, but I am not sold on Isiah Pacheco getting back to what he once appeared to be in 2025. I thought the back-to-back picks of him and Olave were sort of mediocre at best and would have taken Conner at 5.09 instead for sure. Overall outlook: There are things I like about this team. As I shared previously, the thought of Nabers and Harrison, Jr. asserting themselves as the new faces of their position within the realm of fantasy football is pretty exciting. And even if Olave flops, Chris Godwin should be an outstanding fall back if he can return to near full health after his injury last season. But, just as I do with my own team, I find the RB room on this team a little concerning even with the late round youth that was infused into the group. Further, I would not be as at peace with Bo Nix as my starting QB as Dan appears to be as I think some second year growing pains are forthcoming. Do I think Dan can contend for a No-Hassle title? Sure, I do. Do I think I will? I have less certainty about that. First, Fumble, thank you for doing this. Once again. It's always fun to see an immediate assessment, and I love seeing your commentary. My own thinking measures - in June - against my strategy, and its outcome. My philosophy is typically to aim young, looking to get upcoming players with lots of potential, peppering in older veterans where the value makes sense. This sometimes creates the off-beat picks, but ironically, I thought I was a bit more staid this year. LOL. Overall, I got the youth I was looking for. Players just hitting what could very well be an upswing in where they are at. Nabers, Williams, McBride, Harrison Jr, Olave, Nix, Stroud, Coleman all lean into this. I actually considered going with Mason Taylor as my second TE, to go all-in on the strategy. Godwin and Ertz are really the only players that are relatively predictable. As a rule, I hate runs, and hate getting caught up in them, because I can feel like I'm settling. Despite this, I felt that I fell into that a couple of times - both with the Harrison and Pacheco picks. More on that. I prefer to let the draft flow, and pick up needs later. Philosophy. Overall, I thought it went well. What DIDN'T go well: RBs. I found myself just off the edge of players that I would have liked. I refused to reach into the next tier, but that ended up leaving a thin group at the position. Pacheco is not a favorite, but he wasn't the problem pick. He was resultant. But I kept just missing out on RBs, or tiers that fell between picks. So later rounds devoted to youth again focused on potential surprises. Dowdle is fill, but Tuten and Blue come from a remarkably deep rookie RB class that deserved to be explored at that point. I like spending late rounds going after players that might go crazy. Both have the talent, and the team situation that could lead to that. Given that I had found myself out of position to take WhiteWonder's tack, it made the most sense at that point. The biggest fail was Marvin Harrison Jr. He was the "right pick" for that position, and I ended up ceding to the mock. But I hated coming out of that turn with two Cardinals at such prominence in my lineup. Retrospectively, I think overdrafting the next tier of RBs would have been the better choice. Jones/Walker/Swift paired with a WR at the Pacheco point might have made more sense structurally. What I didn't hate was the rest. QB I thought was a coup. I didn't fall into a love affair with a favorite - which is a predilection that I have to be wary of - and played the perceived value well. Nix I like, but he was not my target. I took him because he was an acceptable end of that tier. His selection had as much to do with creating the space to take Olave/Godwin, both of whom I like (I used to live avoiding injury worries, but missed out on things like Derrick Henry's monster years because of it). Yes, he's second year, but so are a growing number of the QBs taken in front of him. I'm wary of that. But . . . the target was Stroud. Stroud just had his down sophomore year, but is no less talented than the rookie that took the league by storm. So I'm banking on Stroud reverting to form to balance out the growing pains that Nix is bound to have. But I love this QB duo. Make or break will come from the RBs, and their unbelievable thinness (one of the rookies needs to hit), and the potential of soured production from multiple Cardinals so high. If Godwin gets healthy (reports are good), he's top 20 every time he hits the field. Olave/Coleman . . . need to take the next step. Or Harrison just needs to be ridiculous alongside McBride. To truly compete, I think I need 2 of those 3 things to materialize. Should be a fun year.

16.04 - TE Zach Ertz, Wash

I knew, in passingthem up in the 14th, I was going to lose the Steelers to fumble. *sigh*. Alas, I'll take the youngsters, and the up and coming group in Michigan

15.09 - DEF Detroit

I appreciate the bump, but I'm pretty sure Iceman's up

I was half-expecting WhiteWonder to wait deliberately until 9:00 to make his picks this morning.

I've had this happen a couple of times, but that's because I drive. Today, I was actually near a computer most of the day. I went on the clock the first time the first time that I was away from the computer for any length of time. Fortunately, I got Fumble's text.

14.04 - RB Jaydon Blue, Dallas

13.09 - RB Bhayshul Tuten, Jax

12.04 - K Chris Boswell, Pitt

11.09 - QB CJ Stroud, Houston

Really wanted Charbonnet, as I feel he's actually going to see the field. Dowdle is a consolation "prize." He has some talent, though, and the young coach in Carolina might be more willing to utilize the talent. Who knows>

10.04 - RB Rico Dowdle, Carolina

Pittman! In the 9th! Holy value picks, Batman!

9.09 - WR Keon Coleman, Buffalo