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stonewall

Member Since 21 Aug 2008
Offline Last Active Today, 01:03 AM
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Posts I've Made

In Topic: Gordon

Yesterday, 04:07 PM

Good things come to those who wait. He's gonna come in with fresh legs and something to prove. When he wants to, he is one of those exceedingly rare receivers that is simply unstoppable.


In Topic: Week 8 WW Pickups

Yesterday, 04:04 PM

I think Mckinnion will be the '14 waiver wire MVP.

 

I have no opinion on McKinnion.


In Topic: Has the fantasy draft become obsolete?

21 October 2014 - 11:32 PM

Excellent post (I would have read your long post btw) and I agree for the most part. I'm 5-2 in one league and only have 5 players on that team from my draft. Of the 5 players I have left 2 of them are my 1st and 2nd round picks.

I have dominated all of my leagues since I started playing fantasy in '07. But the last few years I have DOMINATED like America's Team did in the mid 90's. This can be attributed to a major market inefficiency that Ive been exploiting and will continue to exploit until the "experts" finally catch on and the public follows. I did extensive research last summer which documented the average draft position of the top 30 picks over the last 5 years and how those players ended the season. What I found was interesting and proved the draft strategy I had been following the previous 2 years was spot on.

What I found might not be a shock to anyone but it was enough for me to stop drafting RB's in the first two rounds and especially in the first round. In a nutshell - WRs are as safe as it gets in the first couple rounds and rarely ever bust - similar to drafting OL in the 1st round in the NFL Draft. I only play in PPR's leagues and top flight WRs rule the roost. I don't have all the data in front of me but I can post the entire research project if anyone wants to see it. So while WRs never busted and rarely had season ending injuries over the last 5 years - the amount of RB busts was just baffling. More than half of the RBs in the 1st round over the last 5 years were considered busts or suffered season ending injuries. And that trend only continued this year.

So why are people continuing to take RBs in the 1st round when the chances of that player being a bust is higher than 50%? So I've been exploiting this market inefficiency and will continue to do so until WR's begin to rule the 1st round like they should. This year, once again, I went WR-WR with my first 2 picks, and then targeted the Joique Bells, Rashad Jennings', F-Jax's and Pierre's in the middle rounds. I attempt to trade to the end of the 1st round preferably pick #12 every single year. You can always find an idiot between 8-12 that will trade you picks to move up. That's exactly what I did this year in all 4 of my leagues as I knew I was going WR WR and knew I would get 2 of the top 4 WRs there.

I had Jordy #3 on my board behind Calvin and Demarius so I was a little higher on him than most and caught some flak for taking him over julio, dez and green. Here are how my 4 teams ended up after the first 2 rounds:

DT & Jordy 13-1
DT & Jordy 7-0
Jordy & Dez 6-1
Jordy & Julio 5-2



Sorry for the grammatical errors and what not. My laptop is crashed so I wrote this on my iPhone.

 

Interesting strategy, thanks for sharing it......but you must admit that you have also been very lucky. You could have easily ended up with Mega/Julio in a couple of those leagues and be floundering.


In Topic: Anyone buying Fisher's comment about Zac Stacy?

21 October 2014 - 10:58 PM

Ram RB's are now dead to me.


In Topic: Felix Jones/ Rashad Jennings

21 October 2014 - 08:31 PM

- maybe more of a statement on Williams' suckage as a direct backup than Jennings being late on recovery?

 

This.

 

Williams has been a huge disappointment filling in.