Doug Martin vs Thomas Rawls How close are they?

[TBayXXXVII 2,154]

Martin averaged 20 touches a game. Sims averaged 10 touches a game. With no change that's a timeshare/role specific situation. I understand what you are saying, but Sims looked good last year and had success in his role. My point was that your original statement painting Martin as completely safe is likely just as safe as the role Rawls has in Seattle with his offense.

 

Touches are touches, and frankly receptions are generally more productive so I'm not sure why that is minimized in your assessment. I don't think we are disagreeing and I prefer Martin to Rawls in this discussion but Sims is and will be a factor going forward.

 

Maybe it's just how we perceive the word/phrase "timeshare". To me, a timeshare is Cincinnati. Bernard got 70 less rush attempts than Hill, but got 46 more pass targets. That's about 50/50 - something similar could happen in Seattle. That won't happen in Tampa. Martin will get about 65% of the rush attempts (not counting QB runs of course), but still see targets (like we saw last year), as Sims only averaged 1.5 more per game. That's not all that big considering Martin still averaged about 2.5.

 

I don't really think there will be a real timeshare in Seattle, though I do believe the chances of it happening there are much greater. Not only did they draft 4 RB's, the re-signed Micheal. I do expect Rawls to get the most carries/touches, but is it really irrational to think that he might get about 15-18 touches, Michael 5, Prosise 3, and Collins 3? Prosise was brought in also to be a pass catcher predominantly, but he did show signs that he can be a 3-down runner at Notre Dame. Also, in Rawls' 6 games as "the guy", he only totaled 9 pass targets / 7 receptions. Seattle very well could be what Buffalo used to be when they had Lynch and Jackson... then Jackson and Spiller. None of those 3 ever maximized their "fantasy" potential because one of the other 2 were always there. That kind of situation will not exist in Tampa.

 

Matin has top 5 fantasy potential - much like last year... Rawls really doesn't. He's probably a 10-15 guy. Could Martin still finish in that area? Certainly. But there's virtually no chance that Rawls makes it into the top 5.

 

(note: not debating, simply expanding on my point... for information sake)

[weepaws 2,497]

I think Rawls will be the number one Rb and because of that reason I can see him being a top 5 Rb .

 

He will score more tds than Martin that's a given.

 

I think Sims avg 4.9 yards per carry and he just might get more work in the running game than we think.

[TBayXXXVII 2,154]

I think Rawls will be the number one Rb and because of that reason I can see him being a top 5 Rb .

 

He will score more tds than Martin that's a given.

 

I think Sims avg 4.9 yards per carry and he just might get more work in the running game than we think.

 

I watched all of their games last year and saw how they used him. I'm confident that people using this logic are overgeneralizing that production. He's not a "between the tackles" runner. He's basically a Reggie Bush kind of guy. If he's out is space, he's fine... but he needs help getting him there. That's why he's going to get the pass targets. He's not really a good ball carrier. He'll get about 4 to 6 a game on average... but that's about it.

 

I don't think it's a given that Rawls will score more TD's. I expect Tampa to have a more productive offense this season and see Martin as 10-12 total TD guy. Rawls may get that too, but even if he gets 12-14, that's not much of a difference.

[giraldi02 470]

Charles Sims had a total of 107 rushing attempts last season. Only 34 of them came when the yards to go were less than 10 yards. Of his 70 targets, only 17 came under the same circumstances.

Of his 107 rushing attempts, only 12 came on 3rd down. Of his 70 targets...only 16 came on 3rd down. He's solid in blocking protection, but he's not exactly challenging Martin's role as a lead-back despite getting a healthy snap count.

 

Last season, Sims was (+/-) 9 snaps of Martin in 8 games, with three games where he actually was on the field for more snaps than Martin. The games that Sims outsnapped Martin, the Bucs lost 14-42, 23-37, and 18-32. Game script heavily dictated his production. If the Bucs even slightly improve defensively this season, Sims' production isn't likely to increase to the point of hindering Martin.

One more reason I love the Muscle Hamster (aside from his cost).

 

Last season, Martin was the ONLY running back with 150+ carries that averaged more than 3.0 yards per carry AFTER contact.

[weepaws 2,497]

No question Sims is better in space , and that's why he is used so often in the passing game .

 

Martin last season scored six rushing tds last season and that's what I see him doing once again .

 

If Rawls is the guy with the Seahawks he will score more than ten tds. .

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Again, I'll emphasize that Martin is absolutely my preference in this question based on history and usage. I was never debating that fact.

[DrG 94]

Martin until I hear about Rawls' ankle, but I'm not yet high on either - though Rawls is intriguing. For PPR leagues, Martin may have a higher floor, but Sims will take some 3rd down touches away from him and I could see some hurry ups where he's on the field more than Martin is. DM's never put 2 productive years in a row together - that's big for me. To me, Martin's production is more touchdown-dependent than Sims because of Sims' use in the passing game.

 

If Rawls is healthy AND gets passing down work, I like the talent that he is. Seattle trusted him in 3rd down sets and that was one of CMike's downfalls ...

I will never be a Seattle fan, but this kid is a violent runner. For those that took a flier on Gurley last year, Rawls has a chance to be a little like this year's Gurley. If the ankle's healthy it may still stake him part of the season to get all his leg strength back, but Rawls gives Seattle a little more of their 'Beast mode' offense than CMike would.

[giraldi02 470]

Seattle trusted him in 3rd down sets and that was one of CMike's downfalls ...

 

Last season: Thomas Rawls had a total of EIGHT rushing attempts on 3rd down. He had zero targets in the passing game on third down.

[jimaveli 119]

Wee, don't think that Doug can't score more than what he got last year. Tampa was pretty brutal and he still had that many tds. If they are better at all and he gets similar work, he's gonna beat that td total. I like Rawls too and I get the fears of Doug but if he looks good in preseason, folks need to jump on a top 5 rb going in round 3 the next season.

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

Last season: Thomas Rawls had a total of EIGHT rushing attempts on 3rd down. He had zero targets in the passing game on third down.

Kind of giving off an Alfred Morris vibe.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

Seattle isn't a team that does a time share. Last year when Lynch was healthy the job was his, when he returned, despite Rawls being productive, Lynch was still the bell cow. I think Seattle spent those draft picks trying to find a replacement for Fred Jackson and a better insurance policy for Rawls. I don't buy the Christine hype, they've had ample time to look at him and if they thought he was capable they wouldn't have spent those picks. .

 

I may lean Rawls because of the offense and Sims is a more capable back than any of the ones behind Rawls. Although, with Martin at least you know who is back up /cuff is.

[Kent 228]

 

Last season: Thomas Rawls had a total of EIGHT rushing attempts on 3rd down. He had zero targets in the passing game on third down.

He didn't play a full season. The league tends to throw now on 3rd down since the defense isn't allowed to cover people.

[Kent 228]

Wee, don't think that Doug can't score more than what he got last year. Tampa was pretty brutal and he still had that many tds. If they are better at all and he gets similar work, he's gonna beat that td total. I like Rawls too and I get the fears of Doug but if he looks good in preseason, folks need to jump on a top 5 rb going in round 3 the next season.

The Bucs offense could get worse. The QB could be worse. Look at Andrew Luck.

 

I trust anything in Seattle over Tampa.

[davidbostonisgood 2]

The Bucs offense could get worse. The QB could be worse. Look at Andrew Luck.

 

I trust anything in Seattle over Tampa.

I would tend to agree except for the fact that Rawls is not special, and the Seahawks have a lot of competition for him. Rawls could completely lose his job even if mostly healthy. Martin should maintain starting position or timeshare as long as he stays healthy.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Rawls looked pretty good to me, but we have seen backs look good for a stretch and then go back to being more average. I think Michael is the more talented back physically. I just hope his head is really right like the reports. Probably not...

[jimaveli 119]

Lovie gone almost guarantees Tampa's offense improves. It's mean but hey...

 

Luck and Indy...maaaan...losing Bruce Arians was a big deal. And Luck has a little Cutleritis. Or Jeff Georgery. He's a huge tough strong and athletic kid, but they staffed him with some shaky weapons (last legs and hulked up Andre Johnson), a shakier line, and he didn't play well last year.

 

Crab legs COULD regress, but he got better as the year went on even if he's still not above killing a drive with by going full Eli at the wrong time.

[DrG 94]

G - I appreciate the knowledge. Seattle appeared to trust Rawls in pass blocking vs when they used to sub in for Cmike w Turbin. Hopefully Rawls has expanded his knowledge of the playbook. We might get a hint in preseason

[TBayXXXVII 2,154]

Martin until I hear about Rawls' ankle, but I'm not yet high on either - though Rawls is intriguing. For PPR leagues, Martin may have a higher floor, but Sims will take some 3rd down touches away from him and I could see some hurry ups where he's on the field more than Martin is. DM's never put 2 productive years in a row together - that's big for me. To me, Martin's production is more touchdown-dependent than Sims because of Sims' use in the passing game.

 

If Rawls is healthy AND gets passing down work, I like the talent that he is. Seattle trusted him in 3rd down sets and that was one of CMike's downfalls ...

I will never be a Seattle fan, but this kid is a violent runner. For those that took a flier on Gurley last year, Rawls has a chance to be a little like this year's Gurley. If the ankle's healthy it may still stake him part of the season to get all his leg strength back, but Rawls gives Seattle a little more of their 'Beast mode' offense than CMike would.

 

Martin was used in the passing game as well, and produced. He had 33 receptions on 44 targets, Sims had 51 receptions on 70 targets. Sims really only got 1 more reception per game than Martin. Sims has more burst, so I do expect him to have a higher y/r, but with that combined, Sims essentially got 1.3 more points per game than Martin in the passing game last season. That's not enough to say 1 guy is used more in the passing game over the other. Now, Sims did have more TD's... but as we all know, those are very fluid year to year.

 

Sims' presence allows Tampa to be a more versatile and productive offense. He will produce, but it'll also translate to more plays, in total, for the offense. It'll produce more touchdowns. It won't necessarily take away from what Martin will do. I mentioned this earlier, but while Tampa was 5th in yards last year, it was primarily due to them losing all the time. I don't expect them to be any worse, but more efficient. Efficient in the way that their 20th ranked offense (in scoring), gets better. If they score more, Martin will too. The people most likely to benefit from that increase will be Martin, Evans, and Winston... then Jackson, before Sims.

[Kent 228]

I would tend to agree except for the fact that Rawls is not special, and the Seahawks have a lot of competition for him. Rawls could completely lose his job even if mostly healthy. Martin should maintain starting position or timeshare as long as he stays healthy.

I don't need special. I'll take Rawls if he's the exact same guy as last year before the injury.

[Mike Nice 40]

Going Martin here. Way too many question marks around Rawls right now:

 

Ankle injury

Risk of re-injury

Michael hype train

Prosise

[BTL99 34]

Easily Thomas Rawls. There is no way I would take Doug Martin over him.

[jimaveli 119]

Welp, Douglas has a mysterious rib injury already. It doesn't help that Rawls is, at most, gonna play in the 4th preseason game. Aka Both of these guys got scarier since this convo started. And now I think you have to get the first cuff in both cases. So now it is partially a matter of how much room you can make in your draft and roster for the cuffs. I can't stand to lose a 7th -ish rounder for Simms cuz I'd never want to start him without a Doug injury. At least with CMike, I'd be able to wait a bit. Ick.

 

If I get to the end of the 3rd round and they are both available, I'm gonna make a noise of dispair and select Doug Martin. But I'm gonna need to see how Martin looks running before I lock that in. My dvr has a slew of preseason games that need to get skimmed through.

 

Side note: i'm currently trying to talk myself into taking demarco Murray and being happy about it. But when I say 'exotic smashmouth', I feel dumb and dirty.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Sniped CMike in my main draft last night. I don't usually buy into hype, but it's hard to pass on that upside if Rawls isn't ready.

 

In hindsight, getting Sims and CMike could be the way to go.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Welp, Douglas has a mysterious rib injury already. It doesn't help that Rawls is, at most, gonna play in the 4th preseason game. Aka Both of these guys got scarier since this convo started. And now I think you have to get the first cuff in both cases. So now it is partially a matter of how much room you can make in your draft and roster for the cuffs. I can't stand to lose a 7th -ish rounder for Simms cuz I'd never want to start him without a Doug injury. At least with CMike, I'd be able to wait a bit. Ick.

 

If I get to the end of the 3rd round and they are both available, I'm gonna make a noise of dispair and select Doug Martin. But I'm gonna need to see how Martin looks running before I lock that in. My dvr has a slew of preseason games that need to get skimmed through.

 

Side note: i'm currently trying to talk myself into taking demarco Murray and being happy about it. But when I say 'exotic smashmouth', I feel dumb and dirty.

Demarco went in the 2nd in my draft last night. Likely a product of living in the Nashville area, but I would expect his adp to continue to climb in the non homer leagues as well.