2nd Round Commentary

[Da Bomb 0]

its the same thing for me too, in that i wont pass on a qb or wr if they are the top rated player on my board. i just thought that edge and portis were top 10 RB options and shouldnt have been passed on. i passed up drafting the WR who is alone and significantly at the top of my WR board. i just think his production can be replaced more easily at WR than edge/portis could be by a later RB. there are a few WRs i know will be there at the 3/4 turn we have coming up, and i see the drop in production less there than would be from edge/portis to a RB i can get there. i actually dont see more than like 2 or 3 RBs left on the table that i could feel decent about as my starter.

 

same with with passing on manning, myself, when i knew id get the most pats on the back for that pick. i just dont buy the manning love anymore. i dont buy the magic ceiling we are always pretending exists. its happened once in 9 years. youre not drafting a ceiling, youre drafting 4-4200 yards and 28-30 TDs. nothing to be ashamed of, but i can think of three other QBs that i can get at my next pick that i expect to put up very similiar, perhaps even better numbers. i could convince myself that the colts will struggle and manning might end up with 4500-5000 yards and 40+ TDs, but i could also convince myself that rudi is going to go off for 1800 yards and 18 TDs this year and lead the bengals to the super bowl, and we all know neither of those scenarios are happening.

 

i like the WR pick actually far more than the manning one. chad johnson should be off the board by now, so like i said before, i didnt have a huge problem with that deal. if edge and portis go in the 10-12 range like they shouldve imo and instead youre passing on guys like maroney and mcgahee, then i say its a good pick, even a great pick. as for manning, i finally bought into the whole thing last year in a 6 per TD league and took him and built around him, and he gave me no real edge at QB compared to half the other teams in the league most weeks, and that was in one of the 2 seasons out of his 9 where he actually sat alone atop the TD leaderboard at the end of the year. i just dont buy it at this point. in a real draft that i was trying to win, i couldnt justify taking manning before the 3rd round anymore. i dont buy it as a safe pick anymore. i buy it as a copout. i want to see how many teams that drafted manning in the 1st / high 2nd have won their leagues in the last 5 years outside of the one huge year. i just dont think there are that many.

[Miller_Time_21 0]

Smith is a nice pick, and easily could be swaped with CJ in my opinion. I agree, the value at that point was at WR.

[robb 71]

I am making my first change to my draftlist based on this Mock and moving Edge up 5 slots to #17RB. I was also somewhat leary of S. Smith, but feel more comfortable now. I have enjoyed this Mock so far, thanks for letting me participate.

 

Gone from 11 am to 6 pm today, but do not think I will miss a turn since I have 14 selections before it is my turn again.

 

Edit: i will check more often today then. Thanks for the "heads up".

[Fumbleweed 426]

The guy that drafted Manning won my main league last year......but he also snagged Frank Gore in the early 5th.

 

His WRs were awful, though, so Manning and Gore did carry his team....but Manning could not have done it alone.

 

The team with Manning has finished in the top four in my main league now for a number of years.

 

I am making my first change to my draftlist based on this Mock and moving Edge up 5 slots to #17RB. I was also somewhat leary of S. Smith, but feel more comfortable now. I have enjoyed this Mock so far, thanks for letting me participate.

 

Gone from 11 am to 6 pm today, but do not think I will miss a turn since I have 14 selections before it is my turn again.

 

Don't bet on it. Send somebody a list. The picks will roll much more quickly today.

[Da Bomb 0]

wow, im surprised to see smith already. i like him plenty, but are people assuming hes a top 3 / possible #1 again this year? i didnt expect that. i have him in my top 5 and havent seen him there in other rankings, usually in that 6-10 range. hes a guy id love to draft at the bottom of the 2nd to add with lt2 and another star WR. this seems a bit high to me here, just in that there are a couple of WRs i certainly would rather have year in and year out than smith with his constant injury concerns. again dont get me wrong, i like smith. its just that i wouldve expected him in about 5-10 picks, im surprised to see him early -- and to see people loving the pick too. everyone else has smith in their top 3 WRs?

[Fumbleweed 426]

wow, im surprised to see smith already. i like him plenty, but are people assuming hes a top 3 / possible #1 again this year? i didnt expect that. i have him in my top 5 and havent seen him there in other rankings, usually in that 6-10 range. hes a guy id love to draft at the bottom of the 2nd to add with lt2 and another star WR. this seems a bit high to me here, just in that there are a couple of WRs i certainly would rather have year in and year out than smith with his constant injury concerns. again dont get me wrong, i like smith. its just that i wouldve expected him in about 5-10 picks, im surprised to see him early -- and to see people loving the pick too. everyone else has smith in their top 3 WRs?

 

He's the top receiver on my board....yes.

[Da Bomb 0]

i believe that the manning team has consistently finished around the top, but i just dont buy that hes the rock to build your team around, like you say with rudi for my pick. i just dont see the difference. like you said, the guy with manning won but never wouldve done it without the gore value. my manning team last year contended, but only because i got westbrook in the 2nd and he way outperformed in a ppr league. i just dont buy that manning is that #1 build-your-team-around-him draft pick anymore... nor was he ever except in 2005.

 

i think my point has been made, and yours has as well, so time to let this one go. i just dont see the numbers backing up the opinions.

[NAn 39]

ROBB

No worries man.

 

JET/FUMBLE

Been debating related pt on the main bored in a few threads: It's not about the right position, it's about the right player.

 

Couple of years ago if you were a Stud RB Theorist and picked Cumar/Jlew it didn't work so well.

That same year though if you picked Jordan/Barber then it worked like a charm.

 

Don't take a player JUST b/c he's at a particular position...try to get the best player period.

 

RE: SMITH

Other WR I would have considered over CJ...for all the reasons Fumble mentioned and he did it in just 14 games.

[Da Bomb 0]

so why smith in the top 3, or even #1?

 

i get the upside, obviously. we saw it in 2005. but outside of that year, smith hasnt stayed healthy or consistent enough to be up there usually. in his 6 seasons, hes had two other years where he was a top 10-15 WR, a guy with like 1100/7 (last year and his 3rd year), and the last 3 years he was a WR who wasnt worth much.

 

again, i like smith. i have him in my top 10. and i understand that with keyshawn gone now, he should get a few more looks. i like him, i think he'll have good numbers. but does it really make sense to put him in as a top 3 WR, which has to imply like a 1500/10 season?

[Fumbleweed 426]

i believe that the manning team has consistently finished around the top, but i just dont buy that hes the rock to build your team around, like you say with rudi for my pick. i just dont see the difference. like you said, the guy with manning won but never wouldve done it without the gore value. my manning team last year contended, but only because i got westbrook in the 2nd and he way outperformed in a ppr league. i just dont buy that manning is that #1 build-your-team-around-him draft pick anymore... nor was he ever except in 2005.

 

i think my point has been made, and yours has as well, so time to let this one go. i just dont see the numbers backing up the opinions.

 

Sounds good. We'll agree to disagree. I see the numbers plainly from my perspective. You don't. It's cool. We'll debate it again in the future, I'm sure.

 

so why smith in the top 3, or even #1?

 

i get the upside, obviously. we saw it in 2005. but outside of that year, smith hasnt stayed healthy or consistent enough to be up there usually. in his 6 seasons, hes had two other years where he was a top 10-15 WR, a guy with like 1100/7 (last year and his 3rd year), and the last 3 years he was a WR who wasnt worth much.

 

again, i like smith. i have him in my top 10. and i understand that with keyshawn gone now, he should get a few more looks. i like him, i think he'll have good numbers. but does it really make sense to put him in as a top 3 WR, which has to imply like a 1500/10 season?

 

I don't think a corner exists presently that can cover the guy. If Delhomme can just get him the ball, big-time stuff can happen.

[Miller_Time_21 0]

On Steve Smith, I have him as a solid top 3 guy.

[Da Bomb 0]

just looking at the numbers with smith, he only had 1150/8 as a WR that year, which just doesnt stand out to me as being that great. he only had 9 of 16 games in the season where he scored double digits, and only 6 of them (1/3) where he had more than 12 points. to me that screams good but not great WR. im just not sure those numbers can merit putting him #1 on a board.

 

im out for a couple hours. will check back in around noon central at the latest.

[Jetdoc 20]

i just dont buy it at this point. in a real draft that i was trying to win, i couldnt justify taking manning before the 3rd round anymore. i dont buy it as a safe pick anymore. i buy it as a copout.

 

It's a difference in drafting philosophy.

 

Taking Manning won't lose the season for you, but likely won't win it either. It depends on whether you want your first two picks of the draft to be relatively "safe", or whether you want them to be "make or break" picks.

 

Manning hasn't been the top QB FFwise the past few years, but he's always been top 3-4. You really can't say that about any other QB out there, which makes him a "safe" pick.

[remote controller 133]

its the same thing for me too, in that i wont pass on a qb or wr if they are the top rated player on my board. i just thought that edge and portis were top 10 RB options and shouldnt have been passed on. i passed up drafting the WR who is alone and significantly at the top of my WR board. i just think his production can be replaced more easily at WR than edge/portis could be by a later RB. there are a few WRs i know will be there at the 3/4 turn we have coming up, and i see the drop in production less there than would be from edge/portis to a RB i can get there. i actually dont see more than like 2 or 3 RBs left on the table that i could feel decent about as my starter.

 

 

 

I can understand Edge, but don't get Portis???? I will be voting heavily for an AVOID on him in this years IBL. Betts proved WAY to valuable last season to just reinsert Portis to any type of untouchable FEATURE role, in my opinion. Also the fact that he was dumb enough to support Vicks dog fighting crap. He is damaged goods at many fronts.

[Jetdoc 20]

to me that screams good but not great WR. im just not sure those numbers can merit putting him #1 on a board.

 

Absolutely - I had a hard time between him and another wideout. The remaining "top tier" WR's are clearly below the top three, IMO - I just had to roll the dice and pick one of my two.

[remote controller 133]

On Steve Smith, I have him as a solid top 3 guy.

Steve will likely be my #1 Wr before the season, currently he is my #2. Hard to explain, other than saying, last years troubles were not his fault. His Qb really slid last season, and this is going to be his make or break season.

[Fumbleweed 426]

It's a difference in drafting philosophy.

 

Taking Manning won't lose the season for you, but likely won't win it either. It depends on whether you want your first two picks of the draft to be relatively "safe", or whether you want them to be "make or break" picks.

 

Manning hasn't been the top QB FFwise the past few years, but he's always been top 3-4. You really can't say that about any other QB out there, which makes him a "safe" pick.

 

Actually, Manning is usually top two. He was the top QB last year, second behind Palmer the year before, and second behind Culpepper the year before that.

 

And, you're more aligned with Bomb than you realize. Your point is the point he is trying to make.

[remote controller 133]

I don't think a corner exists presently that can cover the guy. If Delhomme can just get him the ball, big-time stuff can happen.

 

This is the key, as I agree he can't be covered.

 

Actually, Manning is usually top two. He was the top QB last year, second behind Palmer the year before, and second behind Culpepper the year before that.

 

And, you're more aligned with Bomb than you realize. Your point is the point he is trying to make.

McNabb was definitly going to be the #1 Qb last season and he was easily attainable in round 5. I would love to have Manning as my Qb, but just can't spend the early pick on a Qb, when very servicable ones are available after round 5 or later.

[Da Bomb 0]

yeah so was brees last year, and palmer the year before. the problem is finding that guy each year that is near manning's production, when hes one of 10-15 good QBs who it couldve been. thats mannings value, he'll always be up there. i get that. i just think the same value can be true at any position. a couple WRs who will soon go are ranked high becasue they never finish #1, but theyre always top 7 or so. i just dont know why that logic doesnt work at RB as well.

[remote controller 133]

This mock and the June mock, arm us well for our real drafts. The keys I got from the mocks last season, was to grab the top back available in the first (as usual), but hold off on Westbrook for he would be there in the 2nd. He was my 8th ranked back last season. After getting that combo, I could key on a top wr in round 3. If that didn't pan out, scoop up Driver, who was my 5th or 6th rated wideout in round 4. I let the first few Qb's drop and had the feeling that McNabb was going to try to prove to the world that TO didn't matter. Until his injury it worked. These mocks are great tools.

 

I would almost bet my life on this next selection.

[Fumbleweed 426]

just looking at the numbers with smith, he only had 1150/8 as a WR that year, which just doesnt stand out to me as being that great. he only had 9 of 16 games in the season where he scored double digits, and only 6 of them (1/3) where he had more than 12 points. to me that screams good but not great WR. im just not sure those numbers can merit putting him #1 on a board.

 

im out for a couple hours. will check back in around noon central at the latest.

 

I don't think you can just "look at the numbers" with a guy like Steve Smith. When you watch him play, you realize that he's special. Impossible to cover. If you put him with somebody like Tom Brady who knows how to utilize quick slants and so forth, Smith would be a monster.

 

yeah so was brees last year, and palmer the year before. the problem is finding that guy each year that is near manning's production, when hes one of 10-15 good QBs who it couldve been. thats mannings value, he'll always be up there. i get that. i just think the same value can be true at any position. a couple WRs who will soon go are ranked high becasue they never finish #1, but theyre always top 7 or so. i just dont know why that logic doesnt work at RB as well.

 

The numbers for the #10 QB each year pale in comparison to Manning's. His numbers are similar to two or three other guys...that's it. After that, there is a significant tier drop-off at QB.

[ShaneFalco 0]

I don't think you can just "look at the numbers" with a guy like Steve Smith. When you watch him play, you realize that he's special. Impossible to cover. If you put him with somebody like Tom Brady who knows how to utilize quick slants and so forth, Smith would be a monster.

 

bingo. some guys just have "it" and are capable of having monster years when the situation is right. Steve Smith is one of those guys.

[remote controller 133]

Officially lost my life on that bet.

[Jetdoc 20]

..and Clash took the other wideout I was referring to.

 

I'm out for an hour meeting.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Robb....your picks are again going to roll around sooner than you think. Can you provide someone with a list before you go??

[remote controller 133]

TO is the epitomy of Boom/Bust. He could easily lead all wideouts in Td's this season, or end up in his driveway doing situps. You just never know??? There are 3 wideouts I would have rather taken, but I'm not near the river boat gambler that Clash is.

 

Absolutely - I had a hard time between him and another wideout. The remaining "top tier" WR's are clearly below the top three, IMO - I just had to roll the dice and pick one of my two.

Wow! I clearly feel there are two more top tier wideouts, and i wasn't including TO. Not because he didn't have it in him. Just because of his volitility. If his Qb has a rough start, TO will be hasshing up the snap in a heart beat.

[Fumbleweed 426]

I have Owens as third round value due to high risk.

[remote controller 133]

Damn, I wanted Bush here. What a value. This is the best pick since Edge. One shy of me. I cannot believe he fell to this point. Mark my words "You won't see him here in your regular drafts or even during the June Mock".

[Miller_Time_21 0]

No issues with the TO pick from me, but he is a high risk. But the reward is definatly there.

[robb 71]

The discussion on the Manning selection is EXACTLY why we do mocks in my opinion. We "bounce" ideas and reasoning off others in the group, and then you form your own idea on the selection in your draft which really matters!

 

I have never taken a QB this early in a draft, but just felt he was the best player available in this draft at the time. The real test will be who else I pick that surrounds Manning, i.e. Parker, and is a good start IMO. Now I need to draft quality complimentary players, and win a Championship with the entire team, not just a QB.

 

Let's see!

[ShaneFalco 0]

I was surprised to see Owens taken as well. I have two (2) wideouts ranked before him, and one even above Steve Smith. He may be a headcase, but he still has the #1 potential.

 

on Bush:

 

I had 3 RBs left that I thought made a strong #2, and Reggie was the top one. I didn't think the other two would make it back around. Reggie caught fire the end of last year, and New Orleans still has a potent offense. I love his versatility and I think he will improve on his rookie season and show why many felt he was the #1 prospect in the 06 draft.

[remote controller 133]

The top player left on my board, at #16 is Jones-Drew, so he'll have to do. I had Bush at #12, and really wanted to land him.

[Miller_Time_21 0]

Interested to see what others thoughts are on the Bush/Jones-Drew picks. 2 guys stuck in RBBC, yet taken in the 2nd round. To me, that is damn scary. Bush does have the versatility and is a threat from anywhere, Jones-Drew, still unsure of. His TD's last year IMO are not something that will be something you will see year in and year out. Add to that he is still sharing carries with taylor and I think anyone taking him this early will regret it.

[FantasyKing 4]

Interested to see what others thoughts are on the Bush/Jones-Drew picks. 2 guys stuck in RBBC, yet taken in the 2nd round. To me, that is damn scary. Bush does have the versatility and is a threat from anywhere, Jones-Drew, still unsure of. His TD's last year IMO are not something that will be something you will see year in and year out. Add to that he is still sharing carries with taylor and I think anyone taking him this early will regret it.

 

With those 2 you may have a bit of a roller coaster, but if you can stick it out every week you will have those explosions. In an overall points league, it would be worth sticking with them week after week. They may have a few down weeks but overall they should be pretty consistent points with great upside.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Vikes & danzone....when you get some time, I'm curious as to whether or not Harrison would have made it back to me at 3.03........

[remote controller 133]

Interested to see what others thoughts are on the Bush/Jones-Drew picks. 2 guys stuck in RBBC, yet taken in the 2nd round. To me, that is damn scary. Bush does have the versatility and is a threat from anywhere, Jones-Drew, still unsure of. His TD's last year IMO are not something that will be something you will see year in and year out. Add to that he is still sharing carries with taylor and I think anyone taking him this early will regret it.

Jones - Drew is on the good side of Rbbc.

 

2006

 

941 yards rushing

5.7 ypc

13 Td's

 

46 rec

2 td's

436 yards

 

returned 1 kick

 

16 Td's = stud #'s

[FantasyKing 4]

Vikes & danzone....when you get some time, I'm curious as to whether or not Harrison would have made it back to me at 3.03........

 

 

I'm pretty sure they wouldn't ....danzone was just here and now he's gone.!

[remote controller 133]

Vikes & danzone....when you get some time, I'm curious as to whether or not Harrison would have made it back to me at 3.03........

You can't go wrong with Marvin. He is safer than any other wideout at this point, save one who is almsot equal. Many will hope to snag him in the 3rd, but i don't see it happening.

[Miller_Time_21 0]

Jones - Drew is on the good side of Rbbc.

 

2006

 

941 yards rushing

5.7 ypc

13 Td's

 

46 rec

2 td's

436 yards

 

returned 1 kick

 

16 Td's = stud #'s

Good side? That would mean more opportunities right? Well in 06, taylor still received 254 touches compared to jones-Drew's 212. Taylor had 1388 yds, Jones-Drew had 1377. Taylor had 6 TD's, Jones Drew 15 (toss that kick return out, it's irrelevent, you get no pts for it, just another chance for injury).

 

So Taylor received 55% for the work, Jones 45%. They both accounted for 50% of the yards between them.

 

The BIG difference is the TD's, the most variable stat in FF. If you believe Jones Drew will get double didget TD's, despite being in a RBBC again, he then justifys the pick. He shoudl at least match, if not eclipse his yardage one would think, it's the TD's I'm very worried about. Not to mention they ask a lot out of this kid, the ST's is simply another way for him to get injured.

 

Every year there always seems to be a young back who produces lights out down the stretch only to fall very short the next year. Barlow, Jul Jones, Kev Jones, Caddy, just to name a few. I think you can toos Jones Drew into that mix. I coudl be wrong, but I won't be spending a 2nd rounder on him due to this.

[Vikings4ever 496]

Vikes & danzone....when you get some time, I'm curious as to whether or not Harrison would have made it back to me at 3.03........

I like Holt better than Harrison, so maybe.