Da Bomb's RB Rankings 07

[Da Bomb 0]

so i have done the vast amount of my legwork on RBs and considered most of the factors i look at when i make my rankings. i have projected stats down to the tenth of a yard, and heres what i have come up with. note that i did this by stats and didnt even know the order theyd come out until i clicked the sort button.

 

WARNING: do not read if you are looking for cookie cutter rankings. you'll have to look elsewhere to find those.

 

SCORING: standard scoring. no ppr, no negatives.

 

1. sjax

===

2. lt2

3. addai

===

4. gore

===

5. edge

6. bush

7. westy

8. rudi

9. SA

10. MJD

11. benson

===

12. mb3

13. henry

14. fwp

15. maroney

===

16. portis

17. r brown

18. t jones

19. deangelo

===

20. mcgahee

21. j lewis

22. norwood

23. LJ

24. jacobs

25. a peterson

===

26. deuce

27. caddy

28. ahman

29. lynch

30. freddie t

31. k jones

===

32. jordan

33. bjax

34. betts

35. morency

36. lendale

37. droughns

 

thats about enough. the lines represent tiers of guys within about 15 points of one another.

 

alright, there you have it. shred away, and enjoy.

[FantasyKing 4]

Interesting - I can't really say I can argue with much of this. I can see valid points for why you have every ranking. If you are right on your projection on Edge this year, he is really going to push some teams over the top since he is going late 2nd round in redraft leagues.

[Slick20 0]

I hope you're right I have SJax in my keeper league

[The Next Generation 10]

Curioius as to why Bush is ranked so high in a non-ppr league?

[Da Bomb 0]

Curioius as to why Bush is ranked so high in a non-ppr league?

 

i see him continuing to get involved in the offense more in a lot of aspects. sean payton will make sure of it. he'll get a few more carries each game, continued huge looks in the passing game, and he was really starting to score TDs frequently toward the end of last season.

 

ive got 195 carries for 760 yards and 7 TDs, plus 95 catches for 855 yards and 4 TDs.

 

weird rb in that his rushing yards are so low and his TDs are just average for a stud, but those receiving yards just make up SO much ground.

[The Next Generation 10]

i see him continuing to get involved in the offense more in a lot of aspects. sean payton will make sure of it. he'll get a few more carries each game, continued huge looks in the passing game, and he was really starting to score TDs frequently toward the end of last season.

 

ive got 195 carries for 760 yards and 7 TDs, plus 95 catches for 855 yards and 4 TDs.

 

weird rb in that his rushing yards are so low and his TDs are just average for a stud, but those receiving yards just make up SO much ground.

 

thanks!

[Asatira 0]

Intriguing list. I must say that I like what I see. Not the run of the mill default list that everyone seems to post.

[adam smitty 0]

I agree that LJ is a risk this year, but 23rd? He's a guy I would avoid, but if he fell to the end of the first round I would probably still grab him. Just curious as to why you think he's in for such an awful year.

[Borat33 17]

Sjax #1 eh?? I like the cut of your jib.

[greggorymac 0]

I agree that LJ is a risk this year, but 23rd? He's a guy I would avoid, but if he fell to the end of the first round I would probably still grab him. Just curious as to why you think he's in for such an awful year.

 

Yeah, the LJ ranking is a bit ridiculous and I'm sure is there more for the 'shock and awe' factor.

 

Why do you have McGahee as low as you do? Do you not think he will preform substantially better than Jamal last year? I know there O-line is probably bottom third in the NFL, but 1) Billick will be calling the plays from day 1 this year 2) McNair will have another year under the offense (which should translate into a better 3rd down % to keep the chains moving 3) their defense is still elite (great field position) 4) Mcgahee is going get 20-25 rushes a game and they run a ball-control offense and 5) they say (I don't know if I believe it) they're going to try to get him the ball more in the passing game (it will just be nice to see him stay in on 3rd downs, unlike Jamal last year).

 

So given those points, why so low? Other than that, I really like your list.

[cmh6476 757]

what do you have against me?

[Da Bomb 0]

Yeah, the LJ ranking is a bit ridiculous and I'm sure is there more for the 'shock and awe' factor.

 

Why do you have McGahee as low as you do? Do you not think he will preform substantially better than Jamal last year? I know there O-line is probably bottom third in the NFL, but 1) Billick will be calling the plays from day 1 this year 2) McNair will have another year under the offense (which should translate into a better 3rd down % to keep the chains moving 3) their defense is still elite (great field position) 4) Mcgahee is going get 20-25 rushes a game and they run a ball-control offense and 5) they say (I don't know if I believe it) they're going to try to get him the ball more in the passing game (it will just be nice to see him stay in on 3rd downs, unlike Jamal last year).

 

So given those points, why so low? Other than that, I really like your list.

 

The LJ ranking is not that low for the "shock and awe" factor. I have him playing 8 games. Those were the numbers he finished at, so that's where I left him. He's going to get hurt this year, period. If he fell anywhere past about #4, I'd grab him too, but I'd trade him immediately. I don't want him on my roster.

 

McGahee isnt going to get 20-25 carries a game. Jamal Lewis is a bigger workhorse RB and he had 25 or more carries a whopping one time last year. He had less than 20 carries eight times out of the 16 games. And that was with last year's last place Ravens schedule, where they were often ahead and ought to have been running the ball. This year's Ravens are only worse than last year's. They lost Adalius Thomas, the line is older and not so great anymore, McNair is that much closer to retirement, and the schedule is much much tougher. Lewis is better than McGahee, and he wasnt that valuable last year, so why should McG be this year? I dont get why people are making him a top 15 picks. Quit thinking about the fact that he was a stud in college. That was before he tore his whole knee apart. The fact is that McGahee has never averaged more than 4.0 YPC in the NFL, which makes him a very average RB. He's also somewhat fragile still and is not a great receiver. I have him getting 295 carries at 3.9 YPC, which I feel is generous. That puts him at 1150 yards with about 150 receiving as well. Not bad, but not exciting. And he's not going to get a ton of TDs so that hurts. Jamal got 9 last year. I have McG getting 2 less on a team that wont have as many scoring chances this year. Overall, its a decent season for a decent RB2. No more, no less.

[cmh6476 757]

then where's michael bennett on your list?

[Da Bomb 0]

then where's michael bennett on your list?

 

he blows. and hes actually the next RB on the list. that might have been the warning flag to me that players stopped mattering so i should end my list there.

[NorthernVike 2,080]

Looks like you did project receptions, could you possibly run your list with PPR?

 

 

If not no big deal, still like your list.

[Da Bomb 0]

Looks like you did project receptions, could you possibly run your list with PPR?

If not no big deal, still like your list.

 

sure, ive got the list already actually. here it is with 1 point per catch, again by tiers. its not too different.

 

1. sjax

===

2. lt2

===

3. addai

4. bush

===

5. westy

===

6. gore

7. MJD

8. edge

===

9. rudi

10. mb3

11. benson

12. fwp

13. SA

14. r brown

15. maroney

===

16. henry

17. deangelo

18. portis

19. t jones

===

20. LJ

21. k jones

22. ahman

23. mcgahee

24. norwood

25. j lewis

===

26. lynch

27. caddy

28. deuce

29. a peterson

30. jacobs

===

31. jordan

32. f taylor

33. betts

===

34. droughns

35. c taylor

36. morency

37. bjax

38. dunn

39. lendale

[cmh6476 757]

he blows. and hes actually the next RB on the list. that might have been the warning flag to me that players stopped mattering so i should end my list there.

michael bennett is actually a nice change of pace to lj. Mitch holthus last year commented on how much of an improvement he was over Priest Holmes as LJ's backup. he has a nice burst of speed. He got hurt last year (hammy) in a freakin foot race with Bryan Waters ( ), but if LJ went down as you are projecting, I could see him being a serviceable ff RB

[jgcrawfish 232]

Hey Bomb, is it possible for you to throw out the actual #'s you have for these guys? I actually like the list quite a bit. You seem to have this a changing of the guard kind of year. Just for reference sake, do you have last years predictions?

[NorthernVike 2,080]

michael bennett is actually a nice change of pace to lj. Mitch holthus last year commented on how much of an improvement he was over Priest Holmes as LJ's backup. he has a nice burst of speed. He got hurt last year (hammy) in a freakin foot race with Bryan Waters ( ), but if LJ went down as you are projecting, I could see him being a serviceable ff RB

 

 

Thats exactly the problem with Bennett, he always hurts his hammy or some other pussay excuse for not being on the field. Bennett is not worth a roster spot on a FF team or a real one.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

Mitch holthus last year commented on how much of an improvement he was over Priest Holmes as LJ's backup.

 

 

[NorthernVike 2,080]

sure, ive got the list already actually. here it is with 1 point per catch, again by tiers. its not too different.

 

 

Thanks bro.

[cmh6476 757]

 

 

If there is one person in this world I will defer to, it's Mitch.

 

I probably had that exact look on my face of the smilie you used when I heard him say that on the radio. I was guessing he meant that in that stage of priest's career (where you could tell he really wasn't the back he was in his prime) that Bennett would be of more service to the Chiefs and a better player than priest would have been.

 

[Da Bomb 0]

michael bennett is actually a nice change of pace to lj. Mitch holthus last year commented on how much of an improvement he was over Priest Holmes as LJ's backup. he has a nice burst of speed. He got hurt last year (hammy) in a freakin foot race with Bryan Waters ( ), but if LJ went down as you are projecting, I could see him being a serviceable ff RB

 

heh, as another guy said, thats the problem with bennett. hes never healthy. ever. im a vikings fan, trust me, i know. also, i think LJ is good despite the "talent" around him. you have to admit that KC is falling apart right now. if you took LJ away, it would be the worst offense in the league and an average defense, and a top 5 draft pick. the OL and skill positions are aging as well. if you plug in bennett, i think hed have a very mediocre YPC and even that would be boosted by like 3 long runs sometime during the season, msot likely during the games where you finally benched him out of frustration after several 16 carries for 45 yards games.

[greggorymac 0]

The LJ ranking is not that low for the "shock and awe" factor. I have him playing 8 games. Those were the numbers he finished at, so that's where I left him. He's going to get hurt this year, period. If he fell anywhere past about #4, I'd grab him too, but I'd trade him immediately. I don't want him on my roster.

 

McGahee isnt going to get 20-25 carries a game. Jamal Lewis is a bigger workhorse RB and he had 25 or more carries a whopping one time last year. He had less than 20 carries eight times out of the 16 games. And that was with last year's last place Ravens schedule, where they were often ahead and ought to have been running the ball. This year's Ravens are only worse than last year's. They lost Adalius Thomas, the line is older and not so great anymore, McNair is that much closer to retirement, and the schedule is much much tougher. Lewis is better than McGahee, and he wasnt that valuable last year, so why should McG be this year? I dont get why people are making him a top 15 picks. Quit thinking about the fact that he was a stud in college. That was before he tore his whole knee apart. The fact is that McGahee has never averaged more than 4.0 YPC in the NFL, which makes him a very average RB. He's also somewhat fragile still and is not a great receiver. I have him getting 295 carries at 3.9 YPC, which I feel is generous. That puts him at 1150 yards with about 150 receiving as well. Not bad, but not exciting. And he's not going to get a ton of TDs so that hurts. Jamal got 9 last year. I have McG getting 2 less on a team that wont have as many scoring chances this year. Overall, its a decent season for a decent RB2. No more, no less.

 

Last year Jamal averaged 16 rushing att/game up to their bye (week 9). At that time, Billick fired OC J. Fassel and took over playcalling and recommited to the run. Week 10-15, Jamal averaged 22 ru/attempts per game. Assuming Billick's playcalling trend continues (and the fact that I feel McGahee is a better athlete than Lewis), I don't think that a 20-25 carry/game average is outline.

 

On McNair, I think the additional year with the Bal offense is a much greater positive than the extra year of wear and tear on his aging body is a negative to the overall Baltimore offense. Even with the loss of Adalius, their defense will still be top 5.

 

Again, I like your list, I just think McGahee's ADP should be around 10-12 rather than 20. We'll see how it works out.

[Da Bomb 0]

Hey Bomb, is it possible for you to throw out the actual #'s you have for these guys? I actually like the list quite a bit. You seem to have this a changing of the guard kind of year. Just for reference sake, do you have last years predictions?

 

i have the numbers, and i also have last years predictions. i was definitely way off on a couple (see: aaron brooks, top 5) but also hit well on some. suffice to say that the method i use works consistently well but not always. no need to toot anyones horn listing off people you called right.

 

anyway maybe its easier to ask for specific players. i go pretty in depth, and i dont think anyone wants to see a giant mass of numbers. but im happy to share on individuals so its not so messy.

[cmh6476 757]

heh, as another guy said, thats the problem with bennett. hes never healthy. ever. im a vikings fan, trust me, i know. also, i think LJ is good despite the "talent" around him. you have to admit that KC is falling apart right now. if you took LJ away, it would be the worst offense in the league and an average defense, and a top 5 draft pick. the OL and skill positions are aging as well. if you plug in bennett, i think hed have a very mediocre YPC and even that would be boosted by like 3 long runs sometime during the season, msot likely during the games where you finally benched him out of frustration after several 16 carries for 45 yards games.

 

 

You are absolutely wrong if you think KC is falling apart right now, they are moving in the right direction. the team has frickin 10 draft picks next year, trading throwaway guys like Lawrence Tynes, Ryan Sims, and Trent Green.

 

Not to mention with the talent they have been drafting recently. if you think this defense is falling apart, then you are highly mistaken. The defense was definitely improved last year. The glaring weaknesses were at DT, and they addressed that position twice in the first 3 rounds. Looking ahead to the future:

 

Look at all the young guys on the D-Line. Did you watch Jared Allen and Tamba Hali playing off the ends last year? Those guys were really getting it done. Now we have a little issue with Allen getting a 4-game suspension, but if we can make him happy again in KC and lock him up long-term, I like the way our DEs are shaping up for the future. Then they spend draft picks on tank Tyler and Turk McBride, and those guys are going to get a chance to come in and contribute immediately. And like I said, if the talent continues to pan out in our draft as it has in recent years, our D-Line looks good for the future.

 

Completely revamped the LBing corp, do you think they would have went out and spent money on Donnie Edwards if the Chiefs didn't think they were going to be competitve this year? Come on guys, this team made the playoffs last year and by my account, the '07 team is going to be improved from last year's group. Napoleon Harris, Donnie Edwards, Derrick Johnson, and Kendrell Bell make a very solid linebacking group.

 

It looks our rookies from a year ago (Bernard Pollard, Jarrad Page) should end up being our starting safeties. Two more examples of the Chiefs appearing to get better in their drafts, I think we are fine at safety.

 

The weakness now at defense appears to be at corner, when I don't know how you can even really call pat Surtain and Ty Law a weakness? Of course those guys aren't the long-term solutions, but like I said we're looking at 10 draft picks next year, we're in damn good shape.

 

I already told you I think our O-Line will be improved. Somebody like Will Svitek or Kevan Sampson or somebody nobody has really heard of is going to come in and play RT from my estimations, but this team understands how important the offensive line is. Mike Solari is our OC, the former OL coach when our offense was all-world. they aren't just going to let the line go by the wayside.

 

And like I mentioned, if you don't have faith in Brodie Croyle, it was Damon Huard that led this team to the playoffs last year. If Croyle stinks it up early, they aren't going to just throw him to the wolves because they want to get younger. This team still plans on winning now, and if they need to go with Huard then they will.

 

I'd also watch out for Kolby Smith and see how the Chiefs use him. Chiefs drafted him with the pick they got from StL for Dante Hall, and the intention is to have Bennett and Smith (hell, and maybe even priest) used more to take some of the workload off LJ. If you're just guessing LJ will get hurt because the Chiefs are going to run him into the ground, I think you're slightly mistaken there as well.

 

So while you may think the Chiefs are now in a complete state of disarray, I completely disagree

 

[The Next Generation 10]

The Chef's suxor!

[jgcrawfish 232]

So while you may think the Chiefs are now in a complete state of disarray, I completely disagree

 

Spoken like a TRUE homer! I see things differently. I see a weak WR corps, an aging/retiring O-line and a huge question mark at QB. I see a back that has 826 touches in the last 2 years (and one of those was only 1/2 yr starter and part time work) and is unhappy about his contract. I see somebody spending a top 5 pick on a guy that I think may fall out of the top 10 regardless of his injury status. I'd take him if he fell, but I'd also try to trade him. But chances are if he fell, there's a reason for it and nobody is going want to trade you anyway.

[Da Bomb 0]

i dont intend to turn this into a thread debating the chiefs. our opininos obviously differ, and you claerly know a lot more about the chiefs than i do. i dont think the defense is deteriorating at all, and i do think that its headed in the right direction.

 

however i also think the coaching staff run LJ into the ground the last two years and is going to pay for it this season with him missing a lot of games. and when LJ is out, this offense is immediately bottom 5 in the league and with a solid but not great defense and in a tough division and conference, thats not going to win a lot of games.

 

every year around july or early august, i predict every game on the schedule and see how the records play out. im guessing kc will end up with 5, maybe 6 wins. i see a down year coming and then LJ being let go before the team rebounds and starts to build around croyle, bowe, etc on offense -- a good young core but folks who will take awhile IMO.

 

anyway, agree to disagree on the chiefs. you just wont see any of them on my roster this year. gonzo is the one possibility, but only if he slips very far in a draft.

[cmh6476 757]

Spoken like a TRUE homer! I see things differently. I see a weak WR corps, an aging/retiring O-line and a huge question mark at QB. I see a back that has 826 touches in the last 2 years (and one of those was only 1/2 yr starter and part time work) and is unhappy about his contract. I see somebody spending a top 5 pick on a guy that I think may fall out of the top 10 regardless of his injury status. I'd take him if he fell, but I'd also try to trade him. But chances are if he fell, there's a reason for it and nobody is going want to trade you anyway.

 

 

There weren't any stellar WRs out there via free agency. The Chiefs also saw a weak WR corps, which is why they spent their 1st pick on a WR and addressed that weakness. Will he pan out? Who knows, but they are now better off than they were a year ago.

 

Aging O-Line? Brayn Waters just turned 30, he still has a few years in the tank and is the anchor now on the line. MacIntosh is also 30, so he still has a few years left in him more than likely. I can see casey Weigmann retiring after this season, but the Chiefs think they may already have his replacement on the roster in Rudy Niswanger. Then there are a lot of other guys on the roster, including some younger players like Will Svitek and Tre Stallings. You never know what you have in any of thise guys until they get on the field. It's easy to just brush all these guys away and use the tired arguement that this line is aging and declining in talent. But you're kidding yourself if you don't think the Chiefs front office is already thinking about this stuff.

 

The Chiefs have said they intend to work out a new deal with LJ before the season begins, we'll see if it gets done. And like I've mentioned, part of the reasoning for drafting Kolby Smith was to take some of the workload off LJ. They have made it fairly clear they intend to lighten his load this season.

 

 

 

 

i dont intend to turn this into a thread debating the chiefs. our opininos obviously differ, and you claerly know a lot more about the chiefs than i do.

agreed, if you guys need me I'll be here:

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...howtopic=275101

[ventus 0]

so you currently have LJ only playing 8 games. So, if here were to play 16 games, what would his stats be and where would he rank on the list then?

[Walter34 3]

Good list Bomb. We generally go through the same process in rankings and end up agreeing about 80% of the time.

 

Edge is the main one that I disagree with.

 

Regarding Benson, I agree on list one, but he should drop lower in your PPR rankings. Not sure how many receptions you have for him, but he should drop in a PPR to around 15th or so instead of 11th

 

What is your numbers for him?

 

I expect 1350 Rush Yds, 180 Rec Yds, 10 TDs

 

Wolfe and Peterson combine for 50 catches and play alot on 3rd and long unless Benson improves his blocking.

[sms 0]

sure, ive got the list already actually. here it is with 1 point per catch, again by tiers. its not too different.

 

1. sjax

===

2. lt2

===

3. addai

4. bush

===

5. westy

===

6. gore

7. MJD

8. edge

===

9. rudi

10. mb3

11. benson

12. fwp

13. SA

14. r brown

15. maroney

===

16. henry

17. deangelo

18. portis

19. t jones

===

20. LJ

21. k jones

22. ahman

23. mcgahee

24. norwood

25. j lewis

===

26. lynch

27. caddy

28. deuce

29. a peterson

30. jacobs

===

31. jordan

32. f taylor

33. betts

===

34. droughns

35. c taylor

36. morency

37. bjax

38. dunn

39. lendale

 

Hey Bomb,

 

What process do you use to compile these numbers and projections? This is the best list I've seen in quite a long period of time.

[Mrsteak21 0]

The LJ ranking is not that low for the "shock and awe" factor. I have him playing 8 games. Those were the numbers he finished at, so that's where I left him. He's going to get hurt this year, period. If he fell anywhere past about #4, I'd grab him too, but I'd trade him immediately. I don't want him on my roster.

 

McGahee isnt going to get 20-25 carries a game. Jamal Lewis is a bigger workhorse RB and he had 25 or more carries a whopping one time last year. He had less than 20 carries eight times out of the 16 games. And that was with last year's last place Ravens schedule, where they were often ahead and ought to have been running the ball. This year's Ravens are only worse than last year's. They lost Adalius Thomas, the line is older and not so great anymore, McNair is that much closer to retirement, and the schedule is much much tougher. Lewis is better than McGahee, and he wasnt that valuable last year, so why should McG be this year? I dont get why people are making him a top 15 picks. Quit thinking about the fact that he was a stud in college. That was before he tore his whole knee apart. The fact is that McGahee has never averaged more than 4.0 YPC in the NFL, which makes him a very average RB. He's also somewhat fragile still and is not a great receiver. I have him getting 295 carries at 3.9 YPC, which I feel is generous. That puts him at 1150 yards with about 150 receiving as well. Not bad, but not exciting. And he's not going to get a ton of TDs so that hurts. Jamal got 9 last year. I have McG getting 2 less on a team that wont have as many scoring chances this year. Overall, its a decent season for a decent RB2. No more, no less.

 

Sorry, but anyone that tries to factor in who gets hurt and who doesnt in a year is an idiot. Why dont you give me your list of players that will not get hurt and the list of the players who will get hurt and how many games you think they will miss - sound dumb yet???

 

Thats because it is - rankings are not based on potential injuries you will get totally burned by guessing that.

[skinsrule05 30]

Sorry, but anyone that tries to factor in who gets hurt and who doesnt in a year is an idiot. Why dont you give me your list of players that will not get hurt and the list of the players who will get hurt and how many games you think they will miss - sound dumb yet???

 

Thats because it is - rankings are not based on potential injuries you will get totally burned by guessing that.

 

I disagree. There are times when you have to take potential injuries into account. I haven't done it yet this year but every year I downgrade a couple RBs based on prior year use. This is from a FBGs article that showed a historical dropoff in RB production if they had a heavy workload the prior year. Each year 2-5 RBs fall into this "heavy workload" category. I don't have my spreadsheet from last year but I do know Portis was on it. I have done this for the past three years and I think 75% of the people in that "heavy workload" category have had down years. It is a rule I always live by now and I am sure LJ falls in that category. I can get you the full stats next week.

[cmh6476 757]

Sorry, but anyone that tries to factor in who gets hurt and who doesnt in a year is an idiot. Why dont you give me your list of players that will not get hurt and the list of the players who will get hurt and how many games you think they will miss - sound dumb yet???

 

Thats because it is - rankings are not based on potential injuries you will get totally burned by guessing that.

I kind of agree. I take into account various reasonings when doing projections, but I typically give everyone the benefit of the doubt.

 

Then after I have my 1st draft, I move down guys I took, and move up guys I missed out on.

 

I do this again after my 2nd draft, and I find I can really spread out my teams and the different players I have.

 

If you only have one league you draft in, I can see projecting some guys so low just because you don't want them and other owners will obviously take them before your projections would suggest you take them. But if you draft in multiple leagues, might as well give most players the benefit of the draft. You can always change your mind come draft day.

[keeptwo 0]

Love Edge,Bush and Benson at those slots and wtf Jamal.These could pan out.No rbbc for some yet a guy like Marion could out produce the arizona back.Cedric could be the shiot...all about the draft

[Sparkling Wiggles 0]

Without a doubt, the most intriguing projections I've seen this preseason. I've always had quite a bit of respect for you and posts like this are why. Who else has the sack to come out and rank someone besides LT2 as the #1 guy?

 

:bows to DaBomb:

 

Now, I'm going to slam the fock out of you.

 

Completely disagree with Edge being ranked so high. I realize his numbers should go up this year and the TDs last year didn't jibe with how successful the offense actually was and will be, but the franchise is still a disaster, the coaching is still a disaster, the defense is still a disaster, the o-line is still a disaster. If you took an offense with an average line, average QB, average skill players, and threw every RB in the league into that offense, I don't think I'd have Edge higher than 20. I can't remember the last time I saw him break a big run. I seriously can't. I was always impressed with his ability to follow his blockers in Indy, but his blockers in Zona suxor. One season and a couple changes aren't going to make a huge difference.

 

Like you, I'm hesitant about McGahee. I don't want him on my roster, as you don't want LJ. The line, the injuries, the offense.....eh. There is certainly upside. He did succeed in a crap offense, fantasy wise. But it's like Griffey or Marcus Camby. The guy is nice but is today the day he's out for a month or the year? Why do I want to risk my whole team on one pick like that? I lose enough hair as it is.

 

Which moves me to LJ. I read an article about the guys that won the WCOFF when Priest went down. Their strategy going into the draft was to grab LJ (in round 4, I believe) based on the possibility that Holmes would go down. Absolutely stunning strategy. I certainly wouldn't recommend it in a league with 12 people playing for $25 a piece, but the idea behind the theory should be taken into account when playing ff, regardless. That's why we have words like handcuff in our lexicon. If I have the #4 pick, I'm taking LJ, too. But he's another guy I don't want on my roster. I will say that your rankings are flawed, based on this: You can take LJ at #4 and get Bennett LATE. If LJ goes down, Bennett should do nicely. When projecting rankings, the overall ability to get LJ at #4 and Bennett in, say, the 10th, weighs the position as higher than the #20 position, IMO. I like the fact that you at least project an LJ injury, though. Over the past couple years, he's been pounded more than the Hilton sisters and Tara Reid combined.

 

The other thing I'd like to point out is that FWP and Ronnie Brown should be ranked ahead of MJD in every league out there. I'd include PPR leagues. MJD did nicely, but Fred Taylor isn't going to fall off the face of the earth. Pitt and Miami are ball control teams. Add that to the fact that neither Brown nor Parker have competition for playing time. I'd say the major fallacy I see from this season's preseason rankings is MJD. All the TDs he got last year sure look nice on paper but that will be hard to duplicate splitting time with a pretty damn good back.

 

Thanks for the post. When I start seeing the decent posters put threads like this up, I know ff season is on.

 

[Gepetto 988]

fyi: Maurice Drew scored double digit touchdowns in college too!

[Da Bomb 0]

Good list Bomb. We generally go through the same process in rankings and end up agreeing about 80% of the time.

 

Edge is the main one that I disagree with.

 

Regarding Benson, I agree on list one, but he should drop lower in your PPR rankings. Not sure how many receptions you have for him, but he should drop in a PPR to around 15th or so instead of 11th

 

What is your numbers for him?

 

I expect 1350 Rush Yds, 180 Rec Yds, 10 TDs

 

Wolfe and Peterson combine for 50 catches and play alot on 3rd and long unless Benson improves his blocking.

 

i was surprised to see benson so high on the list. you know im not a big fan of him. but the bears are going to run him and run him hard, so those yards and TDs will have to pile up if he stays healthy. my numbers for him are really quite close to what you have. ive got 1340 rush yards and 11 TDs, with 20 catches for 130 yards and no TD. by my count, we are off by 2 points lol. did you by any chance project a 2 point conversion for him?

 

i did tweak the numbers just a tad last night. also be it known that my tiers show about 10-15 points difference, so the tiniest difference can move someone up or down within a tier. only a couple players actually moved tiers though -- henry up one, jacobs and droughns down one, k jones down one, all due to further OL analysis.

 

anyway as it stands right now, benson is my #12 RB in regular scoring and the last one of a tier that connects up to bush at #5. when you move to PPR what ends up happening is that i find more separation at the top -- theres really enough tier separation so that benson is part of a sixth tier if i wanted to be technical. the tiers would go 1, 2, 3-4, 5-6, 7-8, and then 9-15. benson is in that 9-15 tier along with a few other good rushers who dont catch (rudi, alexander, henry) and a pair of guys who moved up a bit because they do (mb3, ronnie). all of that to say that i think i have benson right where you do. you mentioned 15th instead of 11th. well even with the tiniest of tweaking yesterday that i did, he dropped from 11 to 14. its a difference of like 1 TD or 50 yards or even 0.1 YPC over the season. thats why the tiers help me see groupings of guys.

 

so you currently have LJ only playing 8 games. So, if here were to play 16 games, what would his stats be and where would he rank on the list then?

 

that was a really interesting question actually.

 

i think things would be adjusted a bit since i expect the chiefs to run the heck out of him until he gets hurt, and i might dial it back just a bit. but if i just flat out double the numbers, i get 400 carries for 1680 yards and 14 TDS, plus 630 yards receiving and 2 TDs. and he ends up edging out sjax for the #1 spot on my rankings.

 

although looking at that just now, i believe i may have projected receiving stats for him for a full season, not half. so i think that means LJ would end up bascially even with lt2 or addai, such that those three were the #2-#4 guys in my rankings over a full healthy season.