***Official Week #2 College Football***

[phillybear 366]

I'm thinking about reestablishing my baseball bets in this thread.

 

Granted, I was up 91+ units in bases before pleding my allegiance to football. Milwaukee was a 6 unit play for me tonight. And it won.

 

Regardless, eh, whatever.

 

Let's get some sleep.

 

Edit: I sound like an ass.

[fuggedaboutits 0]

Philly,

 

Wow, I differ with you on both Cincy and Mid Tenn St. I liked the write up on Cincy, sound logic. L'Ville however I do disagree on. Kragthorpe is new but he did a phenomenal job at Tulsa and IMO is an up and coming coach. I have a feeling that he will wind up being better at L"Ville than Petrino was. To me he was driving really fast in a Honda and kicking booty on the race track and now someone gave him the keys to a Porsche. His use of the TE really opens up that offense EVEN more. He made Garrett Mills an all america TE and last week the TE scores two TD's in his first game. He scored 4 total all of last year. Look at Kragthorpe's teams at TU and check out their offensive output. I love your write-ups keep em coming. You have made me some money with these threads so thank you!

[Guest _my_2_cents_]

That is what I'm wrestling with this week. Play Oregon or pass. I would have definitely played Oregon before last week's results.

 

I'm taking Oregon +7. Mobile QB, quick offense...Michigan can't stop 'em. They will go 0-2 and students will be running around slaughtering each other with machettes. Oh, the agony.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry - not a big wolverines fan.

[Yer mom 2]

That is what I'm wrestling with this week. Play Oregon or pass. I would have definitely played Oregon before last week's results.

 

 

This is a potential trainwreck. You nailed it, maybe if they played last week but because its after last weeks mess no good logic could seriously be applied for either side here, particularly since the game is in the Big House.

 

I doubt you would even look at this game if you were locked in right now yer still the man though

 

 

Having spewed my garbage, my first play (many more to come) has been layed in the form of LSU/V-Tech under 38. First one to 17 wins this one. Too much emotion, too much D. Only trick plays can get it there which I dont see happening

 

Good Luck!!

[phillybear 366]

Philly,

 

Wow, I differ with you on both Cincy and Mid Tenn St. I liked the write up on Cincy, sound logic. L'Ville however I do disagree on. Kragthorpe is new but he did a phenomenal job at Tulsa and IMO is an up and coming coach. I have a feeling that he will wind up being better at L"Ville than Petrino was. To me he was driving really fast in a Honda and kicking booty on the race track and now someone gave him the keys to a Porsche. His use of the TE really opens up that offense EVEN more. He made Garrett Mills an all america TE and last week the TE scores two TD's in his first game. He scored 4 total all of last year. Look at Kragthorpe's teams at TU and check out their offensive output. I love your write-ups keep em coming. You have made me some money with these threads so thank you!

 

Let's see if I can respond coherently with this stupid hangover. I greatly respect Kragthorpe's coaching. But you are asking Louisville, with a rebuilding defense, to win by more than 40 over a Midd Tenn St team that played in a bowl game last year, in a rematch where they are being asked to win by an extra 2 TDs than last year. I suspect that Louisville will try to run at Midd Tenn St, and that will chew up clock. And Kragthorpe is not going to get that creative on offense, with the Big East schedule looming in the near future. Last year, Louisville played Midd Tenn St in the middle of the season.

[phillybear 366]

I read somewhere that the favorites went 31-11 to the spread last week. Which is amazing. The books took a severe beating.

 

No wonder I had a bad week, taking a bunch of dogs.

[phillybear 366]

Let's see if I can respond coherently with this stupid hangover. I greatly respect Kragthorpe's coaching. But you are asking Louisville, with a rebuilding defense, to win by more than 40 over a Midd Tenn St team that played in a bowl game last year, in a rematch where they are being asked to win by an extra 2 TDs than last year. I suspect that Louisville will try to run at Midd Tenn St, and that will chew up clock. And Kragthorpe is not going to get that creative on offense, with the Big East schedule looming in the near future. Last year, Louisville played Midd Tenn St in the middle of the season.

 

Also, I just wanted to add, some of the better Sun Belt teams covered big numbers in out of conference games. Arkansas St probably should have beat Texas. Troy covered against Arkansas, and UL Lafayette covered against South Carolina.

 

Granted North Texas got crushed in their game, but they historically get buried every year in non-conference games,as they only care about conference games, and are on record as saying that. Penn St killed Flor International, but Penn St is a top 10 team this year, and Flor Int lost a ton to graduation. And UL Monroe lost to Tulsa by 11 in a competitive game.

 

I am a vocal advocate of the non-BCS conferences, as they are not that far away from the talent level of the BCS schools. The Sun Belt has hung in there in a majority of their out of conference so far.

 

Or maybe I'm just insane.

[JetsFan28 0]

Philly, don't worry, I'm with you on Cincinnati tonight. But I'm gonna lay off the spread in the Louisville game and play the total. I'm on the under.

[markblaz 0]

phillybear,

 

im with you on the cinci game, but a couple things that scare me about midd tenn st is last years game. last year louisville beat them 44-17 and louisville played the game with their backup qb (cantwell) and their backup rb, also the game was in midd tenn own back yard. i also think that midd tenn has downgraded since last year since they lost they lost their senior qb from last year. im not saying louisville is the pick (i cant see myself taking a team getting 90% of the action), but i feel like louisville is stronger than last years contest and midd tenn is weaker.

[phillybear 366]

phillybear,

 

im with you on the cinci game, but a couple things that scare me about midd tenn st is last years game. last year louisville beat them 44-17 and louisville played the game with their backup qb (cantwell) and their backup rb, also the game was in midd tenn own back yard. i also think that midd tenn has downgraded since last year since they lost they lost their senior qb from last year. im not saying louisville is the pick (i cant see myself taking a team getting 90% of the action), but i feel like louisville is stronger than last years contest and midd tenn is weaker.

 

Last year's game was at a neutral site. Plus Petrino used to love to run up the score every chance he got, and I think Louisville got a lot of their scoring late in that game. With this new regime, I wonder if they will try to bury teams like that. I agree that Midd Tenn St is a bit worse than last year. But I really believe that Louisville took a step back, and there is no reason for them to be ranked as highly. Believe it or not, and I had to double check because I had trouble believing it, Cantwell actually put up better, more efficient stats last year than Brohm, so the QB was actually an upgrade for that game.

 

I realize that Midd Tenn St is an unpopular pick. But I usually go against the grain, and this game is no exception. I don't know if it will be a backdoor cover, or a closer than expected game like I think, but somehow, someway, I see Midd Tenn St covering. Gut feeling.

 

Tonight, I probably like Cincy more, but I don't want to play anything higher than 3 units until much later in the season.

[phillybear 366]

Also, I enjoy all the dialogue on the games. Seems like everyone is in midseason form with the chatter.

[Bouve 0]

Philly, anything to add in tonights NFL game? I am on the fence.

[fuggedaboutits 0]

Also, I enjoy all the dialogue on the games. Seems like everyone is in midseason form with the chatter.

 

 

Philly,

 

Doing more research on the Ville game. Mid Tenn rushed 32 times last week for 18 yards against Flor Atlantic. That is .6 ypc. I am not so sure that L'Ville's D is the problem in this game, seems more to me that their O is their big impediment this week. This should be an interesting game either way. Also, the more and more I think about Cincy the more I agree with you. I think I may have botched that pick and potentially this one!! I guess that is why they play the games. BTW, I took L'Ville at -38.5 not 40. Not a big difference but that point and a half could loom large huh?

 

Good luck to all this week, let's make some money!!!

 

Any other games people want to start talking about, let's do it.

[GiantsRule 0]

Philly, anything to add in tonights NFL game? I am on the fence.

 

Some props worth looking at (note: I haven't locked anything in yet):

 

Reggie Bush rushing yards Over 63.5

 

Drew Brees total completions Over 23.5 (worth a shot only if you think Indy is going to kill them)

 

Any longest completion prop you can find for either QB (both are good for a 50-yarder at some point in the game)

 

Total receptions: If Harrison or Wayne or listed at 6 or less, take the over. Same with Bush for 4.5 to 5. I'd stay away from Colston to make sure he's not Michael Clayton circa 2005.

 

As far as the total that have so many people drooling, don't do it. Not only is this one of the bigger trap plays in a while (two awesome offenses, lackluster defense? That must mean 60 points by the 3rd quarter!), but New Orleans doesn't really open the playbook in season openers (even last year). Not saying to take the under (too dangerous), but the over looks like one of those "too good to be true" bets and 53.5 is a HUGE number for a Week 1 matchup. The better play might be to root for defense in the 1st half and then pound the 2nd half over.

[jkg31885 0]

Anybody have the o/u percentages on tonights games??

[GiantsRule 0]

Anybody have the o/u percentages on tonights games??

 

Check vegasinsider.com

[Bouve 0]

Anybody have the o/u percentages on tonights games??

 

Oregon State/Cincy 80% on the over

 

Middle Ten/Louis 89% on the over

[new-guru 0]

Philly taking Midd Tenn 1st half @ -25.5 for 3 units

That just seems like way to many for a half

[jkg31885 0]

Thank you for that . Seeing 80% on the over makes me like the under that much more.

[fuggedaboutits 0]

Philly taking Midd Tenn 1st half @ -25.5 for 3 units

That just seems like way to many for a half

 

 

I hope that is Mid Tenn State +25.5 not -25.5. Otherwise Philly is drinking himself to death!!

[GobbleDog 997]

As far as the total that have so many people drooling, don't do it. Not only is this one of the bigger trap plays in a while (two awesome offenses, lackluster defense? That must mean 60 points by the 3rd quarter!), but New Orleans doesn't really open the playbook in season openers (even last year).

 

Last year I kept a running tally of the NFL's ATS and Over/Under stats starting in week 1... (by week 11 or so I got lazy and quit filling out my sheet). In any case, one stat that really jumped out was the surprising number of games that went UNDER in the first two weeks of the season. It was something like 70+% or so.

 

It might have been just an aberation, or perhaps there really was something going on. Like offenses are still getting in sinc, or they don't want to show all of their best plays early on, etc... who knows.

 

But with that in mind, along with the ridiculously high over/under on the Saints-Colts game, I wouldn't touch that OVER with a ten foot pole.

[im2bob 0]

MTSU lost three starting OL in game 1. Louisville by 50+

 

Just 7 offensive linemen ready to play for MTSU vs. Louisville

 

By ADAM SPARKS

Gannett Tennessee

 

 

MURFREESBORO — One less charter bus may be needed for MTSU football's trip to No. 10 Louisville Thursday.

 

After all, the Blue Raiders' capable offensive linemen may fit in a minivan.

 

 

 

 

"We've basically got seven — five starters and two backups," MTSU Coach Rick Stockstill said.

 

Three more starting offensive linemen were injured in the Blue Raiders' 27-14 season-opening loss at Florida Atlantic on Saturday.

 

Starters David Price (guard) and Brandon Nix (center) broke a hand, and guard Richard Bortner reaggravated a neck injury. Price will undergo surgery and be sidelined for at least two weeks. Nix broke his snapping hand, so he will move from center to right guard on Thursday. Bortner could also miss about two weeks.

 

"The shuffling continues," Stockstill said. "We've only got two guys behind our starting five, and they've got to be backups at every position."

 

Stockstill's count of having seven linemen includes six available players with game experience, plus true freshman Colin Boss. MTSU coaches had considered redshirting tackle Mike Williams.

 

"At FAU, we had 12 guys (at all positions) that played their first college football snap," Stockstill said. "We'll have seven to 10 more guys play their first snap at Louisville. We may have to take the redshirt off everybody just to get some depth.

 

"You'd rather not have to do that, to get their baptism at Louisville. There just isn't another way to do it with where we're at."

 

Redshirt freshman Jamal Lewis will start at left guard despite a high ankle sprain that limited his snaps against FAU.

 

Former Goodpasture standout and true freshman Mark Fisher will start at right tackle, and Franklin Dunbar will remain at left tackle.

 

Former DCA standout Mark Thompson will move from starting right tackle to center, a position he has never played in a college game and rarely played in practice.

 

Thompson is among as many as seven offensive linemen that have attempted to play center since the middle of fall camp. Injuries have deemed three starting centers unable to play the position. Nix broke his snapping hand. Original starter Jake Padrick is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Reserve center Chris Hawkins is likely out with a knee injury until the Sept. 22 home opener against Western Kentucky, the same game that Bortner could make a return.

 

Junior Chris Ritter played center in the second half Saturday and sent a snap past quarterback Joe Craddock for a 22-yard loss..

 

 

 

CFL YTD: 23-15; +18.6 units

Overall NCAA YTD: 15-15; -10.1 units

Subset: NCAA 2 unit plays or higher: 10-11; -10.7 units

Subset: 1st or 2nd H plays: 3-1; +3.0 units

 

Thursday

 

Cincinnati (+3.5) for 3 units

Middle Tenn St (+40) for 3 units

 

I gave the writeup for Cinc a couple of posts ago. Louisville is seeing 90% of the action

 

Middle Tenn St lost 44-17 to Louisville last year, and covered a generous spread. I remember this game quite well, as I bet Midd Tenn St for 2 units, and was happy to cash it. What has changed since then? Well, quite a bit. Louisville lost their guru of a coach in Bobby Petrino to the Atlanta Falcons. And that is huge. Granted, Louisville beat up on horrible Murray St last week. But they lost their offensive head coach, and best RB (Michael Bush) to the NFL. And it will take a few weeks for the new coaching staff to really have this offense humming. Midd Tenn St did not look good last week losing to Fla Atlantic 27-14, but you have to consider that they turned it over 4 times, and only allowed 2-12 on 3rd downs, so the final score is a bit misleading. Still, when you are talking about laying 40 points on a decent Sun Belt team, it won't be as easy as beating up on a DivI-AA team like Murray St. Midd Tenn St has a much better quality roster. I'll take a shot on the points, as both teams will be worse than the prior year, except that I am getting almost 2 extra TDs on the spread from last year. Remember, Midd Tenn St finished in a tie for the Sun Belt conference title last year, so they are not that bad of a team. And Louisville only returns 4 starter on defense, so they ae susceptible to giving up points. I'll take all those points.

 

Good luck to all.

[Bouve 0]

NCAA to date: 8-2 +5.594

 

Rutgers -16 1 unit to win .952 units

LSU -12.5 1 unit to win .98 units

Auburn -6.5 1 unit to win .9 units

Boise St -3 1 unit to win .97 units

Alabama -3 1 unit to win .862 units

Oregon State -3 1 unit to win .84 units

 

Adding Oregon State -3 for 1 unit.

[OGAR 0]

I posted that I like Lville B4 philly posted the 90% action and his quality write up.

 

That said, I'm sticking to my guns and have it locked in at 38.

 

FYI, I'm also fading the public on the NFL game tonight and taking NO +6. Call it a gut felling. I think Duece runs well. Payton and co. are going to get theirs but I like the points in this one.

[OGAR 0]

Since I'm throwing my 2 cents in on some things I'll add something else.

 

I don't know why I don't take advantage of the early CFB season. 85% of the top 25 cover the first couple of weeks. I should have played 3/4 of those games.

 

Books will sharpen over the next couple of weeks, which may make Philly's logic all the better.

[greyhounds 0]

Hey Philly...just some good info for you. Middle Tennesee State hasn't covered the last 13 games when a opposing team has scored OVER 31 Points. I would venture to say that Louisville will definitely get OVER 31 points. I believe even with your gut feeling...you will be on the wrong side. Maybe you should just stay off the game as there are thousands of games still to go in NCAA and NFL. And Off Topic....where do you live in Philly? What High School did you go to...You were a Bookie at Temple U correct....I think You Owe me some Money Still from Years ago?

[OGAR 0]

Hey Philly...just some good info for you. Middle Tennesee State hasn't covered the last 13 games when a opposing team has scored OVER 31 Points. I would venture to say that Louisville will definitely get OVER 31 points. I believe even with your gut feeling...you will be on the wrong side. Maybe you should just stay off the game as there are thousands of games still to go in NCAA and NFL. And Off Topic....where do you live in Philly? What High School did you go to...You were a Bookie at Temple U correct....I think You Owe me some Money Still from Years ago?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now thats funny.

[GiantsRule 0]

It's quite amazing that FF Today supports stalking and harrassment on the message boards.

[phillybear 366]

Hey Philly...just some good info for you. Middle Tennesee State hasn't covered the last 13 games when a opposing team has scored OVER 31 Points. I would venture to say that Louisville will definitely get OVER 31 points. I believe even with your gut feeling...you will be on the wrong side. Maybe you should just stay off the game as there are thousands of games still to go in NCAA and NFL. And Off Topic....where do you live in Philly? What High School did you go to...You were a Bookie at Temple U correct....I think You Owe me some Money Still from Years ago?

 

That trend is wrong. For example, Midd Tenn St covered last year vs Louisville, and that was less than 13 games ago.

 

I'm not posting any more personal information. I was not a bookie at Temple.

[American Chewy 98]

for those that follow him, Dr. Bob is on Cincy tonight for a 3-star play at +3 or better. The public must still like oregon st a lot cause this line hasn't moved and is still widely available at +3 or better which is rare for a dr. bob play.

 

i'm laying off tonights games. Still looking to make my first plays this weekend, i'm happy i laid off last weekend cause i generally like to fade the public and would have gotten clobbered like i did first weekend last year.

 

GL to those playing tonight!

[brownmikey 0]

First time posting my picks, i spent most of last year riding the picks of phiily and hurrricane. I see no one talking about the georgia game this week. Georgia is-3.5 at home against S.C. I thought Georgia looked very strong last week against Oky St. Think they'll win by at least 7+. Other games i like:

 

Akron +29, OSU looked very unimpressive against Div. II YSU WIN

Bama -3.5 WIN

Cal -14, They looked all world last week LOSS

LSU -11.5, They looked like they finally got their legs under them in the second half. WINNING

Cinn. +3, only b/c Philly is high on them. WIN

 

Looks like a good week so far. Had a few other winners; Akron/OSU under, Penn St., Wash., and FL. Int.. but didn't have the chance to post them. Overall i am 7-3 with LSU and UNLV left to play. Thanks Philly for the help.

[JetsFan28 0]

My under 61.5 for the Louisville game is not looking good. Not even 5 minutes into the game and 35 points.

[phillybear 366]

I've never seen such an explosive start to a game in my life. 21-14 Louisville. Wow.

 

Stupid fumble on the kickoff really hurts for Midd Tenn St.

[ghost168 0]

OK. I'm following Philly in Cin +3 for 3 units. He seems very sure!!!

[ghost168 0]

good start so far!

[GiantsRule 0]

good start so far!

 

3-0 is a "good start" when you're only getting 3.5 points?

[ghost168 0]

3-0 is a "good start" when you're only getting 3.5 points?

 

 

 

It is if your on Cin. Are you watching the game? Oregon St looks bad!

[new-guru 0]

Holy ###### 28-21 Lville

 

I like that Midd Tenn +25.5 at the half

[new-guru 0]

Highest scoring Game I've ever scene

31-28 Lville

 

AWESOME

[GiantsRule 0]

The 2nd half total is going to trap a lot of people (mainly me)!