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Hurricane Ditka

***Official Week #2 College Football***

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Cinci had a huge stop and Ore St came up empty handed still 3-0 :doublethumbsup:

 

But one TD, and you're losing. Need more than a FG.

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Cincinnati is in a nail biter.

 

The Middle Tenn St game is surprising even me, 38-35 at the half. I hope they can stay competitive the rest of the way. At least Louisville is starting to chew some clock on their drives. I need more of that.

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Cincinnati is in a nail biter.

 

The Middle Tenn St game is surprising even me, 38-35 at the half. I hope they can stay competitive the rest of the way. At least Louisville is starting to chew some clock on their drives. I need more of that.

 

2nd half total. The books are paying attention. I don't know if I can trust these teams to keep up the same pace to the tune of 5 TDs and a FG.

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2nd half line Midd Tenn +17.5 and 37.5

 

Wow. I have 14.5 and 37.5. Big difference on the line spread.

 

TD Cincy. :pointstosky:

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Yeah mine is +17.5 -125 pretty rough I would like to put some more on tenn

 

Huge middle opportunity for you Mid Tenn bettors (and you get a great price on L'ville). I'm jealous.

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Yeah mine is +17.5 -125 pretty rough I would like to put some more on tenn

 

I have a hell of a middling opportunity, but I'm going to just sit on my original bet of +40.

 

Not crazy about the half time line, side or total. Just don't have a good feeling either way.

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Oregon -3 and 21.

 

The line is about right. The under might be worth a look, but I'll pass on it. Don't want to force anything.

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I may have overestimated the Cincinnati offense, but it sure is nice to get a bunch of turnovers in my favor after last weekend.

 

Wow. Midd Tenn St with yet another TD. Wow.

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I have the under in the CINCI game.... they r really starting to make me nervous. With the first half i thought it was almost a lock. No backdoor on this one

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CFL YTD: 23-15; +18.6 units

Overall NCAA YTD: 15-15; -10.1 units

Subset: NCAA 2 unit plays or higher: 10-11; -10.7 units

Subset: 1st or 2nd H plays: 3-1; +3.0 units

 

Thursday

 

Cincinnati (+3.5) for 3 units WINNER

Middle Tenn St (+40) for 3 units WINNER

 

Two easy ones tonight. I'm optimistic that I might be slowly turning things around.

 

CFL YTD: 23-15; +18.6 units

Overall NCAA YTD: 17-15; -4.1 units

Subset: NCAA 2 unit plays or higher: 12-11; -4.7 units

Subset: 1st or 2nd H plays: 3-1; +3.0 units

 

Navy is the play tomorrow, probably a 2 unit game for me, and I'll wait for a line tomorrow, hoping it goes up. I'll do a writeup tomorrow, and look over the Calg/Edm game.

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Two easy ones tonight. I'm optimistic that I might be slowly turning things around.

 

CFL YTD: 23-15; +18.6 units

Overall NCAA YTD: 17-15; -4.1 units

Subset: NCAA 2 unit plays or higher: 12-11; -4.7 units

Subset: 1st or 2nd H plays: 3-1; +3.0 units

 

Navy is the play tomorrow, probably a 2 unit game for me, and I'll wait for a line tomorrow, hoping it goes up. I'll do a writeup tomorrow, and look over the Calg/Edm game.

 

Had Cincy on the ML. Just wish I had more riding on it.

 

Wayne's long TD hit his prop for me (Over 78.5 receiving yards) even though I only needed 5. I've pushed my 2nd half over so any score will cash that for a nice amount. Bush prop the only one that looks like a dud.

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Had Cincy on the ML. Just wish I had more riding on it.

 

Wayne's long TD hit his prop for me (Over 78.5 receiving yards) even though I only needed 5. I've pushed my 2nd half over so any score will cash that for a nice amount. Bush prop the only one that looks like a dud.

 

Almost swept the night. If I didn't let myself get scared off by the high price on Brees' completions (Over 23, -130), I would have cashed all tickets.

 

A nice night overall and I know of one stalking loser who's going to be pretty upset that I came out way ahead tonight!

 

:doublethumbsup:

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NCAA to date: 8-2 +5.594

 

Rutgers -16 1 unit to win .952 units

LSU -12.5 1 unit to win .98 units

Auburn -6.5 1 unit to win .9 units

Boise St -3 1 unit to win .97 units

Alabama -3 1 unit to win .862 units

Oregon State -3 1 unit to win .84 units LOSE

 

0-1 -1 unit tonight. Did well in NFL though. :doublethumbsup:

 

See you guys Saturday.

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im drunk so im gonna ramble a bit. big thanks to phillybear and hurricane but u can call me slurikane, for 2nites picks. you guys know how to pick winners! great night im drunk and i've gone 3 for 3 on 2nites games.

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QUOTE(phillybear @ Sep 5 2007, 10:24 PM) *

Thursday

 

Cincinnati (+3.5) for 3 units WINNER

Middle Tenn St (+40) for 3 units WINNER

 

 

Tis no man. :nono:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

He's a machine!!!

:pointstosky:

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Tis no man. :pointstosky:

He's a machine!!!

:pointstosky:

 

 

I bow down to Philly!! You totally called tonight's action!!! I was way wrong on both. Hedged my bets on Cincy so all is good (thanks Philly)! I also bet the over on the Colts/Saints 2nd half so all in all a good night! Can't wait for the Navy write up, gonna take a lesson.

 

Also can't wait for the weekend!!!

 

Let's all make some money!

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had cinci +3 yesterday..mainly because of philly! thanks

 

couldnt post it because I started Grad School and I have class tues and thurs....

 

 

ill have my card for sat

 

NCAA YTD: 5-3 +3 units

Subset 2 units or higher: 2-1 +2 units

 

:pointstosky: :pointstosky:

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What do you guys like tonight for the Rutgers/ Navy game??

 

-16 for Rutgers which seems eerily low considering they are playing Navy. Then i saw it was down to 15.5

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What do you guys like tonight for the Rutgers/ Navy game??

 

-16 for Rutgers which seems eerily low considering they are playing Navy. Then i saw it was down to 15.5

Philly is on Navy. We're all anxiously awaiting his writeup. :pointstosky:

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Philly is on Navy. We're all anxiously awaiting his writeup. :pointstosky:

 

 

Really?

 

Wow.....gotta hear this one. Home game on tv for Rutgers...and its down to -15.5 and he likes Navy?

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What do you guys like tonight for the Rutgers/ Navy game??

 

-16 for Rutgers which seems eerily low considering they are playing Navy. Then i saw it was down to 15.5

 

 

rutgers should roll them....but i am going to stay away from this and enjoy the game...hopefully the state of new jersey will have a powerhouse soon...just going to be rooting for rutgers and wait to place my games on sat..

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CFL YTD: 23-15; +18.6 units

Overall NCAA YTD: 17-15; -4.1 units

Subset: NCAA 2 unit plays or higher: 12-11; -4.7 units

Subset: 1st or 2nd H plays: 3-1; +3.0 units

 

Friday

 

CFL (9:00 PM EST)

Calgary (-2.5) for 2 units WINNER

Adding: Calgary 2nd H (-.5 units) for 3 units WINNER

 

NCAA

Navy (+17)@-120 for 2 units PUSH

Adding: Navy 2nd H (+6) for 3 units WINNER

 

I like these games, but don't love them. Rutgers is seeing around 80% of the action, last time I checked. Rutgers was -16.5 yesterday, but Dr Bob put out his plays, including a play on Navy, and the casinos dropped the line immediately to -15.5. The Wall Street Journal last year explored this phenomenon of the line drop caused by Dr Bob, and I'm not a shill for him. But an informed handicapper has to know the reasons for line movement whenever possible. The lines dropped on Oregon, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Tulane, and Cincinnati at the same time last night too. It's not hard to figure out why. I am waiting to see if the line climbs up because of all the expected Rutgers money to come in before game time.

 

Rutgers gets a national TV home game, and gets to strut their nationally ranked stuff. However, I suspect they will have a battle on their hands. Rutgers took care of business last week against a regressing Buffalo team. I don't know how you can regress when you are annually one of the 5 worst college Div I-A teams, but Buffalo is managing to do so. Rutgers rolled them 45-3, outgaining them 563 to 235 in total yardage, and cruised to a 31 point half time lead. Rutgers was ranked #4 in the country in defense last year, but I'm troubled seeing them give up 235 to Buffalo. I would have expected less yardage given up. Rutgers also didn't force a single turnover. It's possible that their defense will not catch as many breaks this year, and may take a step back. Nevertheless, Rice looked good last week running the ball. In fact this game will be all about the run, as both team will grind it out and chew up a lot of clock.

 

I thought Navy would struggle with Temple last week, and Navy did not cover in their 30-19 road win. A couple of things struck me. First, Navy has been a gold mine ATS as a road team over the last 5 years or so, even better as a road dog ATS. I could not find the long term updated trend, but Navy is 6-1 ATS in last seven as a double digit dog, and 8-2 ATS in their last ten road games (which includes the non-cover vs Temple last week). Basically, Navy covers on the road as a dog because they are consistently the #1 running team in the country. No one does it better or as often. I don't care how good a team's run defense is, Navy runs on everybody. And when you can run on the road, you will find yourself in every game, going down to the wire. Going back to last week, Navy outgained Temple 439 to 273, which impressed me. First of all, the stats are somewhat similar to what Rutgers did to Buffalo, except Rutgers was at home, and Navy was on the road. Further, Temple is a more respected opponent according to the linesmaker, as he installed Temple as a 3.5 favorite vs Buffalo this week. I assumed that Navy would struggle on defense will a bunch of new starters and that Temple has some capable playmakers on offense this year. Yet, Navy held them down better than expected, and held Temple to 74 yards rushing on 25 carries. This is a huge indicator stat considering that Navy will be playing against run oriented Rutgers. It tells me that the coaches have whipped Navy's defense into shape and they may have a chance to slow down Rutgers. Navy has struggled vs the pass in recent years, and this year will be no exception. But I have never been a fan of Mike Teal, despite his 14-3 record as a starter. There is no doubt in my mind that Rutgers wins despite Teal's clumsiness at the QB position.

 

For me, the key element in this game is simply...revenge. Last year, Rutgers beat Navy 34-0. But let's look closer at that came. Very early in the game, star QB for Navy, Brian Hampton went down with a devastating injury, ending his season. Navy was shellshocked, as was his replacement Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhanda. This was his first extensive action, getting thrown to the wolves, and Rutgers harassed him all game long. But Kaheaku-Enhanda got better as the season went along, and Navy continued with their nice season. This year, Kaheaku-Enhanda is certainly game ready, and has turned into a very good system QB. Simply put, Navy suffered their worst defeat of the year at the hands of Rutgers last year. And in college, emotion is a powerful tool. And when you have a motivated double digit underdog playing with this type of embarrassing revenge, playing with a very good offense that is much, much better as opposed to the previous year's matchup, those intangibles put me on the side of Navy. There is no doubt that Rutgers is a pretty good team. But I just can't justify the Scarlet Knights laying double digits vs Navy.

 

**************************************************************************

 

Calgary's QB Henry Burris was named outstanding CFL player for the month of August, and he has really hit a rhythm with the offense. Last week Calgary beat Edmonton 35-24. The interesting thing was Calgary had 3 first half turnovers which led to 17 Edmonton points. Other than that, Calgary dominated the game, rolling up 517 yards of offense in a balanced attack of running and throwing. Edmonton is struggling mightily, and is only 1-5 SU vs fellow West division teams. It's a match up of two lousy defenses, and two above average offenses, but only one of the offenses is playing well right now. The CFL tends to be streaky, and I'll take the hot team vs the cold team in this case.

 

 

Good luck to all.

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CFL YTD: 23-15; +18.6 units

Overall NCAA YTD: 17-15; -4.1 units

Subset: NCAA 2 unit plays or higher: 12-11; -4.7 units

Subset: 1st or 2nd H plays: 3-1; +3.0 units

 

Friday

 

CFL (9:00 PM EST)

Calgary for 2 units (will get line tonight)

 

NCAA

Navy for 2 units (will get line tonight)

 

I like these games, but don't love them. Rutgers is seeing around 80% of the action, last time I checked. Rutgers was -16.5 yesterday, but Dr Bob put out his plays, including a play on Navy, and the casinos dropped the line immediately to -15.5. The Wall Street Journal last year explored this phenomenon of the line drop caused by Dr Bob, and I'm not a shill for him. But an informed handicapper has to know the reasons for line movement whenever possible. The lines dropped on Oregon, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Tulane, and Cincinnati at the same too last night too. It's not hard to figure out why. I am waiting to see if the line climbs up because of all the expected Rutgers money to come in before game time.

 

Rutgers gets a national TV home game, and gets to strut their nationally ranked stuff. However, I suspect they will have a battle on their hands. Rutgers took care of business last week against a regressing Buffalo team. I don't know how you can regress when you are annually one of the 5 worst college Div I-A teams, but Buffalo is managing to do so. Rutgers rolled them 45-3, outgaining them 563 to 235 in total yardage, and cruised to a 31 point half time lead. Rutgers was ranked #4 in the country in defense last year, but I'm troubled seeing them give up 235 to Buffalo. I would have expected less yardage given up. Rutgers also didn't force a single turnover. It's possible that their defense will not catch as many breaks this year, and may take a step back. Nevertheless, Rice looked good last week running the ball. In fact this game will be all about the run, as both team will grind it out and chew up a lot of clock.

 

I thought Navy would struggle with Temple last week, and Navy did not cover in their 30-19 road win. A couple of things struck me. First, Navy has been a gold mine ATS as a road team over the last 5 years or so, even better as a road dog ATS. I could not find the long term updated trend, but Navy is 6-1 ATS in last seven as a double digit dog, and 8-2 ATS in their last ten road games (which includes the non-cover vs Temple last week). Basically, Navy covers on the road as a dog because they are consistently the #1 running team in the country. No one does it better or as often. I don't care how good a team's run defense is, Navy runs on everybody. And when you can run on the road, you will find yourself in every game, going down to the wire. Going back to last week, Navy outgained Temple 439 to 273, which impressed me. First of all, the stats are somewhat similar to what Rutgers did to Buffalo, except Rutgers was at home, and Navy was on the road. Further, Temple is a more respected opponent according to the linesmaker, as he installed Temple as a 3.5 favorite vs Buffalo this week. I assumed that Navy would struggle on defense will a bunch of new starters and that Temple has some capable playmakers on offense this year. Yet, Navy held them down better than expected, and held Temple to 74 yards rushing on 25 carries. This is a huge indicator stat considering that Navy will be playing against run oriented Rutgers. It tells me that the coaches have whipped Navy's defense into shape and they may have a chance to slow down Rutgers. Navy has struggled vs the pass in recent years, and this year will be no exception. But I have never been a fan of Mike Teal, despite his 14-3 record as a starter. There is no doubt in my mind that Rutgers wins despite Teal's clumsiness at the QB position.

 

For me, the key element in this game is simply...revenge. Last year, Rutgers beat Navy 34-0. But let's look closer at that came. Very early in the game, star QB for Navy, Brian Hampton went down with a devastating injury, ending his season. Navy was shellshocked, as was his replacement Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhanda. This was his first extensive action, getting thrown to the wolves, and Rutgers harassed him all game long. But Kaheaku-Enhanda got better as the season went along, and Navy continued with their nice season. This year, Kaheaku-Enhanda is certainly game ready, and has turned into a very good system QB. Simply put, Navy suffered their worst defeat of the year at the hands of Rutgers last year. And in college, emotion is a powerful tool. And when you have a motivated double digit underdog playing with this type of embarrassing revenge, playing with a very good offense that is much, much as opposed to the previous year's matchup, those intangibles put me on the side of Navy. There is no doubt that Rutgers is a pretty good team. But I just can't justify the Scarlet Nights laying double digits vs Navy.

 

**************************************************************************

 

Everything you stated is relatively correct. However I must repectfully disagree about tonight. Rutgers' offensive is even better than last year. Teel was not great last year, and the WR had A LOT of drops, which didn't help a QB in his first full year as a starter. This year the WR are solid and deep, and with Teel more experienced and Ray running the ball, I just can't see Navy stopping Rutgers.

 

Last week wasn't a great week to judge RU. They got up by a lot early, then backed off. You will see this a lot with Rutgers - Schiano will not run the score up on an opponent once the game is in hand. You wont see the 59-0 or 73-10 type of scores, even though Navy is better than that. I also think that the D wasn't really focused last week. I'm not sure if that was because they were looking past Buffalo, or just starting to prepare for Navy's offense. Either way, they still only gave up 3 points.

 

I do believe that there is a chance Navy will be able to move the ball, however I don't think they will be able to go up and down the field for an entire game.

 

I'm laying the wood.

 

FYI, as a side note, I have noticed that the first half for RU has been a solid play. I played it a lot last year, and also last week. Right now it's a 9.5, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a 2 TD lead at halftime.

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Everything you stated is relatively correct. However I must repectfully disagree about tonight. Rutgers' offensive is even better than last year. Teel was not great last year, and the WR had A LOT of drops, which didn't help a QB in his first full year as a starter. This year the WR are solid and deep, and with Teel more experienced and Ray running the ball, I just can't see Navy stopping Rutgers.

 

Last week wasn't a great week to judge RU. They got up by a lot early, then backed off. You will see this a lot with Rutgers - Schiano will not run the score up on an opponent once the game is in hand. You wont see the 59-0 or 73-10 type of scores, even though Navy is better than that. I also think that the D wasn't really focused last week. I'm not sure if that was because they were looking past Buffalo, or just starting to prepare for Navy's offense. Either way, they still only gave up 3 points.

 

I do believe that there is a chance Navy will be able to move the ball, however I don't think they will be able to go up and down the field for an entire game.

 

I'm laying the wood.

 

FYI, as a side note, I have noticed that the first half for RU has been a solid play. I played it a lot last year, and also last week. Right now it's a 9.5, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a 2 TD lead at halftime.

 

No worries. All of us will disagree with games during the course of a season. And I don't usually take the popular sides.

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Hey Philly...just some good info for you. Middle Tennesee State hasn't covered the last 13 games when a opposing team has scored OVER 31 Points. I would venture to say that Louisville will definitely get OVER 31 points. I believe even with your gut feeling...you will be on the wrong side. Maybe you should just stay off the game as there are thousands of games still to go in NCAA and NFL. And Off Topic....where do you live in Philly? What High School did you go to...You were a Bookie at Temple U correct....I think You Owe me some Money Still from Years ago?

 

Since you've made an ass out of yourself (again) and wrongly accused good people of things they didn't do (again), can you go away now and stop phishing?

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So philly your sayin that people followin dr. bob caused the line to drop 1pt last night in vegas. Who is this guy and what site does he post on if that many ppl follow him?

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So philly your sayin that people followin dr. bob caused the line to drop 1pt last night in vegas. Who is this guy and what site does he post on if that many ppl follow him?

 

I don't want to promote his website or products, so google it, but he is tout selling picks. But this is a reality, as his picks have attracted much attention the last few years, and now the casinos are moving lines immediately. It's gotten really bad the last 2 years. Last year, around 1:00 PM on Thursday, several casinos shut down, waited a few minutes, and reopened with 2-3 point line moves based on this guy announcing his plays. This year, it's at 5:45 PM on Thursdays.

 

I've never seen anything like it in all my years in handicapping.

 

Every one of his plays moves the line right away, every time. Phil Steele used to move some lines with his North Coast stuff, but when you hit at a 35% rate, no one cares anymore. Also, never, never buy picks from a handicapper. Besides, you can get anything you need for free on the internet, if you know where to look. His writeups are very good, and he looks at games in a very similar way as I do. So I read his write-ups on games when I can.

 

Last night, Cincy dropped from +3.5 to +3 right away around 5:45 PM EST, despite all the heavy action on Oregon St. The books were encouraging more action on Oregon St with a -3 move, and screwing the Dr Bob followers by giving them a worse line. And it's hard to move a line off a number like 3.5 to a key number like 3, especially when you are moving the line against the majority of the action which was on Oregon St.

 

Next week, watch the lines around 5:45 PM EST on Thursday. All of the sudden, you will see some very fast college football line moves, several points each. It's fascinating stuff.

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I don't want to promote his website or products, so google it, but he is tout selling picks. But this is a reality, as his picks have attracted much attention the last few years, and now the casinos are moving lines immediately. It's gotten really bad the last 2 years. Last year, around 1:00 PM on Thursday, several casinos shut down, waited a few minutes, and reopened with 2-3 point line moves based on this guy announcing his plays. This year, it's at 5:45 PM on Thursdays.

 

I've never seen anything like it in all my years in handicapping.

 

Every one of his plays moves the line right away, every time. Phil Steele used to move some lines with his North Coast stuff, but when you hit at a 35% rate, no one cares anymore. Also, never, never buy picks from a handicapper. Besides, you can get anything you need for free on the internet, if you know where to look. His writeups are very good, and he looks at games in a very similar way as I do. So I read his write-ups on games when I can.

 

Last night, Cincy dropped from +3.5 to +3 right away around 5:45 PM EST, despite all the heavy action on Oregon St. The books were encouraging more action on Oregon St with a -3 move, and screwing the Dr Bob followers by giving them a worse line. And it's hard to move a line off a number like 3.5 to a key number like 3, especially when you are moving the line against the majority of the action which was on Oregon St.

 

Next week, watch the lines around 5:45 PM EST on Thursday. All of the sudden, you will see some very fast college football line moves, several points each. It's fascinating stuff.

 

 

Its Just hard to believe that vegas follows one guys bets to the point that when he posts that vegas sometimes shuts down the lines to adjust it before everyone gets there bets in. But numbers dont lie so i cant argue with you. Next thursday i will be lookin at the lines on thursday, seein if any of them change around taht time. Thanks for the input, im stickin with you though.

 

:thumbsup: :dunno:

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Its Just hard to believe that vegas follows one guys bets to the point that when he posts that vegas sometimes shuts down the lines to adjust it before everyone gets there bets in. But numbers dont lie so i cant argue with you. Next thursday i will be lookin at the lines on thursday, seein if any of them change around taht time. Thanks for the input, im stickin with you though.

 

:cheers: :mad:

 

The big reason was some large syndicates picked up on his hot streak over the last few years. A syndicate is basically a large group of investors/bettors that bet on exactly the same games. The larger the group, the more money they wager, and the more this affects the sports books bottom line. When they decided to hop on the Dr Bob picks, the sports books figured out the strategy being used, and move the lines in a defensive manner. The books get the line at the same time as everybody else, since the subscribe to him. And of course, the everyday joe that may or may not buy the picks will bet the game, and typically get a worse line than the early birds.

 

The world of gambling is a complicated spider web. I'm just providing information in this case for everyone. The question was posed earlier in the thread as to why the Rutger's line dropped. I made the explanation more complicated than it had to be, but that's the jist of it.

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I don't want to promote his website or products, so google it, but he is tout selling picks. But this is a reality, as his picks have attracted much attention the last few years, and now the casinos are moving lines immediately. It's gotten really bad the last 2 years. Last year, around 1:00 PM on Thursday, several casinos shut down, waited a few minutes, and reopened with 2-3 point line moves based on this guy announcing his plays. This year, it's at 5:45 PM on Thursdays.

 

I've never seen anything like it in all my years in handicapping.

 

Every one of his plays moves the line right away, every time. Phil Steele used to move some lines with his North Coast stuff, but when you hit at a 35% rate, no one cares anymore. Also, never, never buy picks from a handicapper. Besides, you can get anything you need for free on the internet, if you know where to look. His writeups are very good, and he looks at games in a very similar way as I do. So I read his write-ups on games when I can.

 

Last night, Cincy dropped from +3.5 to +3 right away around 5:45 PM EST, despite all the heavy action on Oregon St. The books were encouraging more action on Oregon St with a -3 move, and screwing the Dr Bob followers by giving them a worse line. And it's hard to move a line off a number like 3.5 to a key number like 3, especially when you are moving the line against the majority of the action which was on Oregon St.

 

Next week, watch the lines around 5:45 PM EST on Thursday. All of the sudden, you will see some very fast college football line moves, several points each. It's fascinating stuff.

 

yea i remember dr bob from last year....and yesterday just so happens that i texted my guy at 6pm because i had to go to class...got to remember thursdays from now on....

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I have Navy at +17 took it for 3 units

 

I was thinking about 1st half Navy +9.5 @+105

Rut -9.5 @-125

What do think philly? any 1st half

 

I have Calgary at -2 took it for 2 units

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