Bold Projections For 2009

[kmbryant09 1]

I'm so sick of seeing projections for 2009 that mirror so closely the final rankings for 2008. For instance, ESPN just posted their QBs as Brees, Brady, Manning, Warner...which (with the exception of an injured Brady), is pretty much how the season ended last year...So for those of you so sick of seeing the same "Bold" Predictions for this upcoming season, I'll offer a different look at things, so feel free to agree, or tear it apart! PPR League

 

Running Backs:

1. Adrian Peterson - 1,600 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 35/400/2 receiving. Too good to be ranked any lower, only injuries can slow him down.

 

2. Maurice Jones Drew - 1,300/11 rushing, 55/600/3 receiving. Will get heavier workload, but not buying the breakout, career year like everyone is preaching.

3. Chris Johnson - 1,350/13 rushing, 40/400/2 receiving. Hard to believe LenWhale will repeat his TD totals.

 

4. Frank Gore - 1,200/10 rushing, 60/550/3 receiving. Should be top5 in total touches, just needs to find the endzone.

5. Brandon Jacobs - 1,350/14 rushing, 20/200/1 receiving. Could have a breakout year without Ward.

6. Matt Forte - 1,150/9 rushing, 45/400/3 receiving. Can do it all, but should have an easier workload with Cutler there.

7. DeAngelo Williams - 1,200/11 rushing, 35/300/1 receiving. Hard to repeat 2008, but don't rule him out just cuz of JStew.

 

8. Kevin Smith - 1,200/10 rushing, 35/300/1 receiving. Should also be towards the top in touches, if this team can be somewhat more competitive.

9. Michael Turner - 1,300/12 rushing, 15/100/1 receiving. Hard to repeat 2008, and simply doesn't catch the ball, especially with the explosive Norwood.

10. Reggie Bush - 800/6 rushing, 90/900/8 receiving. In PPR leagues, he's pretty much a solid #2 WR with 40-70 rushing yards a game.

11. Steve Slaton - 1,100/9 rushing, 50/400/2 receiving. Durability could be his only issue, as he is young and ultra-talented.

12. Ryan Grant - 1,150/9 rushing, 35/300/1 receiving. With the emergence of Rodgers, running game could see more holes in '09.

 

13. Larry Johnson - 1,200/10 rushing, 25/200/1 receiving. Somethin tells me he has a bounceback year with the addition of Cassel and a young OLine.

14. Steven Jackson - 1,000/7 rushing, 40/300/3 receiving. (11 games) - Everyone is preaching his ppg #s, but i'll simply point to his games PLAYED.

15. Brian Westbrook - 900/7 rushing, 45/400/3 receiving. A year older, with a capable backup (for the first time), and emerging WRs means less touches for him.

16. Felix Jones - 1,100/8 rushing, 35/400/2 receiving. Just a hunch here, I could see him used as the featured back to keep Barber healthy near the goalline/4th quarter. And their OLine is that good.

 

 

Wide Receivers:

1. Larry Fitzgerald - 95/1,350/13 - Has earned this spot regardless of Boldin's situation.

2. Calvin Johnson - 90/1,300/12 - Proved that he doesn't need a talented QB to put up top3 numbers.

 

3. Steve Smith - 85/1,350/11 - Nearly missed about 5 TDs last year, and I think DEFs will be concentrating on their running game.

4. Reggie Wayne - 85/1,250/11 - I think a bounceback year is in order for the Colts offense as a whole.

5. Andre Johnson - 95/1,300/8 - Lack of TDs is what separates him from Fitz and Calvin.

6. Marques Colston - 85/1,200/10 - Should return to being Brees' favorite target in this high-powered offense.

 

7. Dwayne Bowe - 80/1,150/11 - I think he'll emerge as Cassel's favorite target, especially in the red zone.

8. Randy Moss - 80/1,200/10 - I know Brady is back, but with McDaniels gone, I don't think we'll see such a pass-happy offense anymore.

9. Terrell Owens - 85/1,250/9 - Has a history of having huge 1st years with his new teams.

10. TJ Houshwhatever - 90/1,200/8 - I think he establishes a great PPR season with Hasselbeck back to being healthy.

11. Vincent Jackson - 70/1,100/12 - I don't think the SD running game will step up, so I think Jackson benefits.

 

12. Roddy White - 75/1,250/9 - I think it'll be hard for ATL to build on 2008, even though I'm in the minority.

13. Greg Jennings - 70/1,150/10 - Should have a strong future with Rodgers, but I think the Packers will go back to the running game a lil more.

14. Chad OchoCinco - 80/1,150/9 - If he stays in Cincy, I think he'll be productive with Palmer back and 100%.

15. Roy Williams - 75/1,100/10 - I think the Cowboys focus on the run more in '09, but Romo needs to throw to someone.

 

Quarterbacks:

1. Drew Brees - 4,500/34/16 - With a healthy Bush and Colston, I don't see him dropping from the #1 spot.

 

2. Peyton Manning - 4,300/32/12 - Should be in for another big year...just look at his stats in '08 once he got healthy.

 

3. Aaron Rodgers - 4,200/28/15 - Could emerge as a top5 QB for years to come.

4. Tom Brady - 4,300/26/14 - Even if he is healthy, I don't think the Pats will throw as much.

5. Donovan McNabb - 4,000/25/15 - I hate the Eagles, but I think he has some explosive players to throw to.

 

6. Carson Palmer - 3,800/27/17 - Could bounce back in a huge way, especially if 85 is still in town.

7. Kurt Warner - 4,000/24/16 - I don't think he'll put up the #'s with an unhappy Boldin and the addition of Wells to the running game.

8. Jay Cutler - 3,800/26/13 - Won't have to throw the ball as much as in Denver, but will have more opportunities for TDs.

9. Philip Rivers - 3,900/24/12 - Will be relied on more now that LT is past his prime.

10. Tony Romo - 3,650/25/13 - I think the Cowboys will shift to the running game to take some pressure off of Romo.

 

 

Just throwin some ideas around, I know some guys seem like reaches, but year after year we see some young guys emerge, old guys rebound, and stars disappoint...Critique Away!

[listen2me 23 1,546]

These Rankings aren't bold at all. So you didn't go 100% by last years finish, you went 90%.

[kutulu 1,551]

No Portis in the top 15? I'm focked.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

yeah, these really are not that bold either.

[All Heart 0]

I'm so sick of seeing projections for 2009 that mirror so closely the final rankings for 2008. For instance, ESPN just posted their QBs as Brees, Brady, Manning, Warner...which (with the exception of an injured Brady), is pretty much how the season ended last year...So for those of you so sick of seeing the same "Bold" Predictions for this upcoming season, I'll offer a different look at things, so feel free to agree, or tear it apart! PPR League

 

Running Backs:

1. Adrian Peterson - 1,600 rushing yards, 16 TDs, 35/400/2 receiving. Too good to be ranked any lower, only injuries can slow him down. He has all the talent in the world but injuries aren't the only thing capable of holding him down. A man named Chester Taylor does that pretty well, taking most of the receptions on the offense, which in a PPR format, like this, hurts his value. ADP really needs to find the endzone more as well. He could finish as the #1 RB but so could a handful or so of other players.

 

2. Maurice Jones Drew - 1,300/11 rushing, 55/600/3 receiving. Will get heavier workload, but not buying the breakout, career year like everyone is preaching. I like him a lot and can certainly see the case for him being rated this high and if not certainly Top 5.

3. Chris Johnson - 1,350/13 rushing, 40/400/2 receiving. Hard to believe LenWhale will repeat his TD totals. Love him as well but Lenwhale will surely be involved and will surely post very solid TDs again.

 

4. Frank Gore - 1,200/10 rushing, 60/550/3 receiving. Should be top5 in total touches, just needs to find the endzone. Gets a lot of touches for sure but just doesn't get into the endzone enough to be ranked at #4.

5. Brandon Jacobs - 1,350/14 rushing, 20/200/1 receiving. Could have a breakout year without Ward. Ward is gone but Bradshaw and Andre Brown will take touches from him and Jacobs has trouble staying healthy with his style of running. Ranking him at #5 is also a bit too high, IMO.

6. Matt Forte - 1,150/9 rushing, 45/400/3 receiving. Can do it all, but should have an easier workload with Cutler there. This is a guy that I like a ton and think could be Fantasy Football's #1 overall RB. Like you said he does it all and has shown grit by playing hurt. He was knocked out of a game last year that I thought for sure he wouldn't return and he not only returned, but played fairly well and played again the following week. I believe it was a toe problem. I'm not finished with my rankings/projections but he could very well be at the top of the list, especially with Cutler now in town to take some pressure off of him.

7. DeAngelo Williams - 1,200/11 rushing, 35/300/1 receiving. Hard to repeat 2008, but don't rule him out just cuz of JStew. He was ranked #1 after the dust settled this past season and rightfully so. He was an absolute STUD! I just don't think he can repeat and with J. Stewart having a year under his belt, he'll likely get into the act a bit more as well. I couldn't believe his breakout year last year, especially cause he couldn't wrestle the job completely away from Foster in previous years.

 

8. Kevin Smith - 1,200/10 rushing, 35/300/1 receiving. Should also be towards the top in touches, if this team can be somewhat more competitive. Smith really started to come on last year and I do think he is a very solid NFL/Fantasy RB. The Lions are building this team up with Stafford, Smith, Megatron and Pettigrew. Big things lie ahead for this guy.

9. Michael Turner - 1,300/12 rushing, 15/100/1 receiving. Hard to repeat 2008, and simply doesn't catch the ball, especially with the explosive Norwood. He should be a bit higher in the rankings. Yes, Norwood steals receptions but this guy is a workhorse who will carry the load and post Top 5-ish stats. He another guy who has a terrific nucleus around him with Ryan, Norwood-to keep him fresh, Gonzo and White.

10. Reggie Bush - 800/6 rushing, 90/900/8 receiving. In PPR leagues, he's pretty much a solid #2 WR with 40-70 rushing yards a game. They say he's healthy this year and this is a fair place to rank him as with all the receptions he should grab, along with about 8-10 TDs, he'll have solid value. The problem is that I'd rather have him as my #2 RB instead of my #1. That could certainly happen if you got him as one of your 2 wrap-around picks and waited on WRs.

11. Steve Slaton - 1,100/9 rushing, 50/400/2 receiving. Durability could be his only issue, as he is young and ultra-talented. Agreed. Also has solid talent around him and catches the ball well. Schaub, Slaton, A.J, Walter, Daniels.

12. Ryan Grant - 1,150/9 rushing, 35/300/1 receiving. With the emergence of Rodgers, running game could see more holes in '09. Don't like this guy as he can't seem to stay healthy even though he played all 16 games last year. He wasn't even in the Top 20 last year and had guys ranked ahead of him like; Rhodes, McClain, Kevin Faulk, Derrick Ward and Pierre Thomas (who by the way, I feel belongs in the Top 15 and maybe Top 10 this year).

 

13. Larry Johnson - 1,200/10 rushing, 25/200/1 receiving. Somethin tells me he has a bounceback year with the addition of Cassel and a young OLine. I think this guy's finished. He played in 12 games last year and ranked 40th overall. Sure he has Cassel coming on but Thigpen was doing a good job of managing things and making the defenses respect the passing game. I also think Jamaal Charles will be more of a factor this year. LJ is also not used in the passing game as he averaged less than 1 catch per game last year and was only averaging about 13 carries per game. Charles is much more of a factor in the passing game and I do believe his role will increase. LJ will not finish the year ranked this highly.

14. Steven Jackson - 1,000/7 rushing, 40/300/3 receiving. (11 games) - Everyone is preaching his ppg #s, but i'll simply point to his games PLAYED. I can't believe you had LJ ranked ahead of SJax!! SJax can't seem to stay healthy but when he's on the field he's an absolute BEAST! Jackson only played in 12 games last year and was ranked in the Top 15 in total points. In terms of average points scored per game played, Jackson ranked 4th with 19.18 ppg and only trailed the leader by .27 points per game played. Move 'em up!!

15. Brian Westbrook - 900/7 rushing, 45/400/3 receiving. A year older, with a capable backup (for the first time), and emerging WRs means less touches for him. Again another guy that you have ranked below LJ...WOW!! Westy is as steady as they come irregardless of his age, knee issues or LeSean McCoy (and McCoy is not the first capable backup behind him as Buckhalter was terrific last year averaging about 9 fantasy pts per game and posting 4 double digit performances-3 of them over 20 pts). Westy has a year or 2 of solid fantasy years left in him. Question: Who was the overall leader in points scored per game played last year at the RB position? That's right, Brian Westbrook with 19.45 points per game. He's easily a Top 5 pick especially with the Eagles adding Jeremy Maclin to the mix along with some solid O-line additions.

16. Felix Jones - 1,100/8 rushing, 35/400/2 receiving. Just a hunch here, I could see him used as the featured back to keep Barber healthy near the goalline/4th quarter. And their OLine is that good. Who knows? He'll be given the opportunities and I've read that Barber will be going back to the GL/short yardage/ game-closer role. It's hard to tell how the whole backfield of Baber, Jones, Choice will workout but one thing is for sure, they will all hurt each other's fantasy value.

Wide Receivers:

1. Larry Fitzgerald - 95/1,350/13 - Has earned this spot regardless of Boldin's situation.

2. Calvin Johnson - 90/1,300/12 - Proved that he doesn't need a talented QB to put up top3 numbers.

 

3. Steve Smith - 85/1,350/11 - Nearly missed about 5 TDs last year, and I think DEFs will be concentrating on their running game.

4. Reggie Wayne - 85/1,250/11 - I think a bounceback year is in order for the Colts offense as a whole.

5. Andre Johnson - 95/1,300/8 - Lack of TDs is what separates him from Fitz and Calvin.

6. Marques Colston - 85/1,200/10 - Should return to being Brees' favorite target in this high-powered offense.

 

7. Dwayne Bowe - 80/1,150/11 - I think he'll emerge as Cassel's favorite target, especially in the red zone.

8. Randy Moss - 80/1,200/10 - I know Brady is back, but with McDaniels gone, I don't think we'll see such a pass-happy offense anymore.

9. Terrell Owens - 85/1,250/9 - Has a history of having huge 1st years with his new teams.

10. TJ Houshwhatever - 90/1,200/8 - I think he establishes a great PPR season with Hasselbeck back to being healthy.

11. Vincent Jackson - 70/1,100/12 - I don't think the SD running game will step up, so I think Jackson benefits.

 

12. Roddy White - 75/1,250/9 - I think it'll be hard for ATL to build on 2008, even though I'm in the minority.

13. Greg Jennings - 70/1,150/10 - Should have a strong future with Rodgers, but I think the Packers will go back to the running game a lil more.

14. Chad OchoCinco - 80/1,150/9 - If he stays in Cincy, I think he'll be productive with Palmer back and 100%.

15. Roy Williams - 75/1,100/10 - I think the Cowboys focus on the run more in '09, but Romo needs to throw to someone.

 

Quarterbacks:

1. Drew Brees - 4,500/34/16 - With a healthy Bush and Colston, I don't see him dropping from the #1 spot.

 

2. Peyton Manning - 4,300/32/12 - Should be in for another big year...just look at his stats in '08 once he got healthy.

 

3. Aaron Rodgers - 4,200/28/15 - Could emerge as a top5 QB for years to come.

4. Tom Brady - 4,300/26/14 - Even if he is healthy, I don't think the Pats will throw as much.

5. Donovan McNabb - 4,000/25/15 - I hate the Eagles, but I think he has some explosive players to throw to.

 

6. Carson Palmer - 3,800/27/17 - Could bounce back in a huge way, especially if 85 is still in town.

7. Kurt Warner - 4,000/24/16 - I don't think he'll put up the #'s with an unhappy Boldin and the addition of Wells to the running game.

8. Jay Cutler - 3,800/26/13 - Won't have to throw the ball as much as in Denver, but will have more opportunities for TDs.

9. Philip Rivers - 3,900/24/12 - Will be relied on more now that LT is past his prime.

10. Tony Romo - 3,650/25/13 - I think the Cowboys will shift to the running game to take some pressure off of Romo.

Just throwin some ideas around, I know some guys seem like reaches, but year after year we see some young guys emerge, old guys rebound, and stars disappoint...Critique Away!

 

The QBs and WRs are basically the same as what everyone else will have just maybe in a different order. I commented on the RBs in red above. Good read though, just sort of like what everyone else above said- not that bold.

[Admiral Awesome 0]

Michael Crabtree - 930 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns.

He will be a top 10 drafted fantasy football wide receiver in 2010.

 

Larry Fitzgerald has disappointing season.

 

512 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns. Injured by week 6.

[kilroy69 995]

The Miami Dolphins are going to win the superbowl.

[kmbryant09 1]

Seriously?? I guess I should have further explained my original post about being bold - I'm not gonna throw 7-8 new RBs into the top 10, because NO ONE can predict that...What I simply did was try to predict which of last year's top performaning players will experience a drop, and which players from last year could experience a steep rise in rankings. To say these predictions aren't bold seems misleading to me...I understand I could have gone out and put guys like LeSean McCoy, Justin Fargas, David Garrard, Lav Coles, S. Breaston into my top 10/15 rankings...But c'mon, if I, or anyone else had done that, people simply would have laughed...

 

If you look at my rankings, I have guys like Turner (#9 - who I don't think have seen lower than #3), LT (unranked), Brian Westbrook (#16, in almost everyones top5-10), Randy Moss (#8 - ranked mostly in top3), Roddy White (#12), Kurt Warner (#7), etc falling lower than anyone else's rankings. I also have guys like Gore (#4), Jacobs (#5), K Smith (8), Bush (10), Grant (11), Wayne (4), Colston (6), Bowe (7), Housh (10), Rodgers (3), McNabb (5), Palmer (6)...

 

So I don't see how these predictions aren't bold. Compare these to anyone else's rankings and I'll show you at least 4-6 at each position in the top 10-15 that most people don't have...

[Gepetto 988]

kmbryant09,

 

I really like your projections, except I like Brian Westbrook a lot more. What do you think of Darren McFadden, Bernard Berrian, and Matt Schaub? I think all of these guys could creep into the bottom of your rankings, in my opinion.

[Raider 84 29]

Roy Williams having 10 tds is very bold. I can't see that happening.

[listen2me 23 1,546]

Seriously?? I guess I should have further explained my original post about being bold - I'm not gonna throw 7-8 new RBs into the top 10, because NO ONE can predict that...What I simply did was try to predict which of last year's top performaning players will experience a drop, and which players from last year could experience a steep rise in rankings.

 

 

This is what everyone does.

[Gepetto 988]

I suggest people ignore the fact that these were titled as "BOLD" and just focus on the projections themselves. The projections are pretty good. I especially like the higher rankings than normally expected to see for Felix Jones, Kevin Smith, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas. I agree with all of those. I'm not sure if Ryan Grant will do what kmbryant is projecting here, I'm not that high on him, but maybe I should reconsider. This is a good original post (except maybe for labeling them as "bold") as it gets one thinking about player value and potential 2009 stats.

[Admiral Awesome 0]

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens - 10-6

Pittsburgh Steelers - 9-7

Cincinnati Bengals - 7-9

Cleveland Browns - 5-11

 

AFC South

Houston Texans - 11-5

Indianapolis Colts - 9-7

Jacksonville Jaguars - 6-10

Tennessee Titans - 7-9

 

AFC East

Buffalo Bills - 5-11

Miami Dolphins - 8-8

New England - 12-4

New York - 7-9

 

AFC West

Denver Broncos - 4-12

Kansas City Chiefs - 9-7

San Diego - 10-6

Oakland Raiders - 7-9

 

NFC North

Green Bay Packers - 11-5

Minnesota Vikings - 9-7

Chicago Bears - 7-9

Detroit Lions 3-13

 

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons - 12-4

Carolina Panthers - 8-8

New Orleans Saints - 10-6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 5-11

 

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles - 12-4

New York Giants - 6-10

Dallas Cowboys - 8-8

Washington Redskins 7-9

 

NFL West

Arizona Cardinals - 10-6

San Francisco 49ers - 5-11

Seattle Seahawks - 11-5

St. Louis Rams - 6-10

[gpann101 32]

The Miami Dolphins are going to win the superbowl.

Which decade did you say?

[kmbryant09 1]

I appreciate the support guys - Again, I think we just differ on what a "Bold Prediction" would be...but let's just get past those, and call these, "Not Your Normal Projections" - does that work?!?

 

Anyways, I love the feedback, and other opinions from you guys, I can't get enough FF so the more traffic the better...

[All Heart 0]

I appreciate the support guys - Again, I think we just differ on what a "Bold Prediction" would be...but let's just get past those, and call these, "Not Your Normal Projections" - does that work?!?

 

Anyways, I love the feedback, and other opinions from you guys, I can't get enough FF so the more traffic the better...

 

That's what I did when I responded to your projections/rankings. I thought the QBs and WRs were pretty much as most out there would see them other than actual positioning. I made my comments in regard to the RBs as that's where I saw the most difference and therefore, included my comments/opinions in regard to them in red above.

[kmbryant09 1]

That's what I did when I responded to your projections/rankings. I thought the QBs and WRs were pretty much as most out there would see them other than actual positioning. I made my comments in regard to the RBs as that's where I saw the most difference and therefore, included my comments/opinions in regard to them in red above.

 

Yeah looking back, my QBs don't seem that bold, but just to play devil's advocate - if you take the same top 10 players but invert it, it's a pretty bold list...not sayin I did that, but havin players like TO, Housh, and Bowe i thought were pretty bold...anyways, anyone wanna take a stab at it?

[All Heart 0]

Yeah looking back, my QBs don't seem that bold, but just to play devil's advocate - if you take the same top 10 players but invert it, it's a pretty bold list...not sayin I did that, but havin players like TO, Housh, and Bowe i thought were pretty bold...anyways, anyone wanna take a stab at it?

 

Stab at what? Projections and rankings? If so, I do my own every year and am currently working on them as we speak. I do enjoy seeing other people's opinions/viewpoints on players, rankings, projections and possible draft positions.

[edjr 5,569]

The Miami Dolphins are going to go 6 and 10

 

[karmarooster 0]

BOLD responses:

• Peterson will not finish in the top 5 in PPR. Not unless he increases both his TD total and reception total. But it's not gonna happen... Taylor and Harvin will ruin his PPR value. If this guy finally gets a 40 catch season, he can be a legit #1 in PPR, but not until then.
  
• Jacobs and Turner will not finish in the top 10 in PPR. Same as above, in addition to injury risk. Brenda will miss 2 or 3 games for sure, and he doesn't get the catches. Turner is ditto, in addition to having around 400 carries last season. Norwood and Jason Snelling will have value at some point this year.
  
• Ryan Grant will not average over 4.0 YPC again for the rest of his career.
  
• Finally, one rookie RB will finish in the top 10.
  

[fantasymind 1]

Good original post...A couple of quick hits in response:

 

1. AP will probably be ranked number 1 prior to just about every draft, regardless of format---in a PPR, he shouldn't be. I think people have a real hard time separating themsevles from the fact that, even though he is probably the best RB in football right now, his PPR value is more in the 4-7 range than the number one overall. I like MJD, Forte, and Chris Johnson better in PPR format---there is no overstating just how valuable a back who catches 5-8 balls a game is in this format. Hell, a healthy Reggie Bush is more valuable in this format, and no one would argue that he is in the same class as AP in terms of NFL Rbs. AP will likely be taken number one in everyone's draft, mostly because people will be too intimidated to go against the group think and make the right PPR choice.

 

2. I like that you aren't high on LT (I'm not either), but, I think he has to fit somewhere in the lower half of the top 16...assuming you are not predicting injury, he will see too many touches not to rank at least that high.

 

3. Take out Ryan Grant, bump everyone up, and put in Leon Washington. I don't like Grant to maintain a full workload for the whole season and to catch enough balls for it to matter. I think the Jets just started to scratch the surface with Leon last year, and they will use him in a more primary role this season, giving him 15-18 touches a game...assuming an average of 4 receptions per contest, and with his homerun capability, I think Leon will make a sneaky #2 Rb this season. I like your Felix Jones pick for many of the same reasons.

 

3. Not having Wes Welker in your top 16 Wrs in a PPR? I call blasphemy...Welker is the perfect #1a/2...he catches 6-8 balls consistently week to week, nets between 60-90 yards, and has the occassional game where he blows up for 11-121...While his Td total is not going to be huge, I'll take Welker's steady hand over some of the more boom or bust guys on the list you gave (Vincent Jackson, Ochocinco, Roy Williams)...While I'm at it, go ahead and remove those three guys from your list and replace them with Welker, Eddie Royal, and...Devin Hester. Hester is a stretch, for sure, but, with Cutler slinging it, I'll gamble on him instead of Roy E. Williams--I understand all of the reasons not to (Dallas' high powered passing offense, Chicago's run-based offense, past performance, etc.), but, I love Hester's talent with the ball in his hands, and I think this is the year that Chicago figures out all of the ways they can go about doing that. I envision Hester having 82-1100-8, with a punt return or two thrown in for good measure. I think Hester is the next in the Steve Smith/Derek Mason mold, guys who started as strictly return men who morphed into upper tier wideouts.

 

4. Drop Carson Palmer, bump everyone up one and put Matt Ryan at #10 on my list. Year two, a solid running game and the addition of a new redzone/middle of the field threat in Tony Gonzalez make me a Matty Ice believer. Plus, Carson burned my azz last season, so screw him and his tennis elbow.

I also think a healthy Schaub probably cracks the top ten---just not totally sold on him staying healthy.

[KSB2424 3,083]

I like some of these, not sure this is very bold per se, but thanks for the effort. To expound I'll throw in my perspective on a few items.

 

MJD will be a major bust in comparison to where he will get drafted. Everyone automatically assumes that he will be a super-stud with the departure of Fred Taylor. I'm not sold quite yet. I just don't see him as a 'full load' back in the NFL. The wear and tear coupled with another back getting time means MJD will be closer to last years numbers than some of these wild figures I keep seeing. He should be a great back next year, but not in the top 7 fantasy picks on my board. (Prediction: Slaton will out stat MJD in 2009)

 

Miles Austin will finish with close to, if not better fantasy stats than Roy E. Williams. Witten and Williams get the defensive attention. The benefactor? Not Crayton, but the more talented Austin. (Prediction: Austin finishes Top 20 Fantasy WR in 2009 in a breakout year)

 

This is the year Matt Schaub stays healthy for a full season. (Prediction: 4000 yards and 30TD's)

[FlaHawker 24]

I like some of these, not sure this is very bold per se, but thanks for the effort. To expound I'll throw in my perspective on a few items.

 

MJD will be a major bust in comparison to where he will get drafted. Everyone automatically assumes that he will be a super-stud with the departure of Fred Taylor. I'm not sold quite yet. I just don't see him as a 'full load' back in the NFL. The wear and tear coupled with another back getting time means MJD will be closer to last years numbers than some of these wild figures I keep seeing. He should be a great back next year, but not in the top 7 fantasy picks on my board. (Prediction: Slaton will out stat MJD in 2009)

What more proof do you need to be "sold"? The guy has produced three straight years. In my PPR league MJD has finished top 10 every year amongst RBs (# 4, #7, and #7), and he has 1 top 10 finish overall # 9 (2006) and one top 15 finish overall # 14 (2008). Even if he puts up #s similiar to last year, that is hardly a major bust even if drafted in the top 5. MJD is money!

[kmbryant09 1]

Good original post...A couple of quick hits in response:

 

1. AP will probably be ranked number 1 prior to just about every draft, regardless of format---in a PPR, he shouldn't be. I think people have a real hard time separating themsevles from the fact that, even though he is probably the best RB in football right now, his PPR value is more in the 4-7 range than the number one overall. I like MJD, Forte, and Chris Johnson better in PPR format---there is no overstating just how valuable a back who catches 5-8 balls a game is in this format. Hell, a healthy Reggie Bush is more valuable in this format, and no one would argue that he is in the same class as AP in terms of NFL Rbs. AP will likely be taken number one in everyone's draft, mostly because people will be too intimidated to go against the group think and make the right PPR choice.

I understand your logic here, but I think people are overstating MJD's value and how much Chris Johnson will catch the ball. Anyways, I guess my logic is just that AP is too good to pass on. I know he doesn't catch a lot of balls, but I'm just waiting for Childress to put the ball in his hands more...Also, I feel like AP is the only legitimate threat to breakout for a record-breaking year in the molds of Shaun Alexander, LT (a few times), Larry Johnson, etc. If that happens (like a 2,000 yard 20-24 TD season), then you are pretty much set for the year.

 

2. I like that you aren't high on LT (I'm not either), but, I think he has to fit somewhere in the lower half of the top 16...assuming you are not predicting injury, he will see too many touches not to rank at least that high. I'm banking on LT not being 100%...either way, I think his wear and tear will be enough for the Chargers to realize that Sproles is a more productive back...and I see a 50/50 timeshare for a not-so-productive-backfield.

 

3. Take out Ryan Grant, bump everyone up, and put in Leon Washington. I don't like Grant to maintain a full workload for the whole season and to catch enough balls for it to matter. I think the Jets just started to scratch the surface with Leon last year, and they will use him in a more primary role this season, giving him 15-18 touches a game...assuming an average of 4 receptions per contest, and with his homerun capability, I think Leon will make a sneaky #2 Rb this season. I like your Felix Jones pick for many of the same reasons.

Yeah I'm really high on Felix Jones for some reason, mostly because I think the Cowboys will focus on the run a ton this year (and their OLine is tremendous). And I love your call with Leon Washington, I probably should have a place for him on my list. The only thing that scares me is that they drafted a RB pretty high, and I'm not sure Leon can hold up to a full season's workload.

 

3. Not having Wes Welker in your top 16 Wrs in a PPR? I call blasphemy...Welker is the perfect #1a/2...he catches 6-8 balls consistently week to week, nets between 60-90 yards, and has the occassional game where he blows up for 11-121...While his Td total is not going to be huge, I'll take Welker's steady hand over some of the more boom or bust guys on the list you gave (Vincent Jackson, Ochocinco, Roy Williams)...While I'm at it, go ahead and remove those three guys from your list and replace them with Welker, Eddie Royal, and...Devin Hester. Hester is a stretch, for sure, but, with Cutler slinging it, I'll gamble on him instead of Roy E. Williams--I understand all of the reasons not to (Dallas' high powered passing offense, Chicago's run-based offense, past performance, etc.), but, I love Hester's talent with the ball in his hands, and I think this is the year that Chicago figures out all of the ways they can go about doing that. I envision Hester having 82-1100-8, with a punt return or two thrown in for good measure. I think Hester is the next in the Steve Smith/Derek Mason mold, guys who started as strictly return men who morphed into upper tier wideouts.

Again, I love Hester, and should have a spot for him on my list. I'm not sure how the Broncos offense will operate with pretty much an entirely new unit in town, so I'm hesitant on those players. But I've had Wes Welker in a PPR league the last 2 years, and he has served well. But with McDaniels gone, and knowing the Patriots, something just tells me they are gonna shift to a heavier dependence on the running game. To protect Brady, to keep teams off balance, new Off. Coordinator, etc. Call it a hunch, but I don't think the Pats passing game will be so high octane. And as a result, I think Welker may have one of those 75 catches/1,000 yards and 3 TDs type seasons.

 

4. Drop Carson Palmer, bump everyone up one and put Matt Ryan at #10 on my list. Year two, a solid running game and the addition of a new redzone/middle of the field threat in Tony Gonzalez make me a Matty Ice believer. Plus, Carson burned my azz last season, so screw him and his tennis elbow.

I also think a healthy Schaub probably cracks the top ten---just not totally sold on him staying healthy.LOL I understand your hatred for Palmer, but he seems 100%, and he is one of the top5 most talented QBs in the league, and on a team that will probably be trailing a lot this season. And yeah, I just don't understand how the Falcons became so good, so fast, so my rankings pretty much mean that i'm just in denial...

Anyway, thanks for the responses!

[ROYALWITCHEESE 0]

1. AP will probably be ranked number 1 prior to just about every draft, regardless of format---in a PPR, he shouldn't be. I think people have a real hard time separating themsevles from the fact that, even though he is probably the best RB in football right now, his PPR value is more in the 4-7 range than the number one overall. I like MJD, Forte, and Chris Johnson better in PPR format---there is no overstating just how valuable a back who catches 5-8 balls a game is in this format. Hell, a healthy Reggie Bush is more valuable in this format, and no one would argue that he is in the same class as AP in terms of NFL Rbs. AP will likely be taken number one in everyone's draft, mostly because people will be too intimidated to go against the group think and make the right PPR choice.

 

 

No RB in the league catches 5 balls a game, much less 8. Bush, yes, but I think most will agree we can no longer consider him a RB. He's more of a WR who gets about 40 rush yards per game. MJD caught 62 balls last year. That's not even 4 per game. I think the whole RBs who catch a lot of passes thing is a bit overblown. If AD gets 130 yards and a touch with 2 rec for 20 yards (which is a decent day for him), he equals MJD who gets 90 yards on the ground, a touch and 4 rec for 40 yards (which is a decent day for him). The difference, and why I think you take AD first in any format, is the explosive potential. I.e. those games where he gets upwards of 200 yards or 3 TDs or both. He didn't have a game like that last year and he still finished near the top. I think he will have a few this year. Sure you have the occasional game where a guy like Barber gets 10 rec and that will win you a game that week, but that is just as rare (and perhaps more so) than a huge day from a guy like AD or Turner. A 1-2 rec per game difference doesn't really change who I draft at the top. It's more beneficial, I think, in deciding between mid to low tier players--with rec being the deciding factor among similar players...

[jocstrap 8]

My 1st Bold Prediction out of 3 for the year

 

Braylon Edwards will be a top 12 WR in FFTODAY final rankings

 

I'm editing my sig right now!

[ROYALWITCHEESE 0]

But with McDaniels gone, and knowing the Patriots, something just tells me they are gonna shift to a heavier dependence on the running game. To protect Brady, to keep teams off balance, new Off. Coordinator, etc. Call it a hunch, but I don't think the Pats passing game will be so high octane. And as a result, I think Welker may have one of those 75 catches/1,000 yards and 3 TDs type seasons.

 

I disagree. If they didn't go run heavy when Brady went down, why would they now? Matt Cassell was an unproven guy who looked pretty bad at the onset, yet they remained true to what they do and who they are. McDaniels is a BB protege, he got his style from the HC and had to have the okay with every play. So to think McDaniels is the mastermind, IMO, is false. Their bread is buttered with Brady, Moss, and Welker. Not with 3 33 year old RBs and an injury prone talent. Not much is going to change as far as that offense is concerned. Will they be as successful? No. But they will bomb first, and I expect Brady to rival Brees for top QB of '09...

[Franknbeans 46]

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens - 10-6

Pittsburgh Steelers - 9-7

 

Really? BWAAHHAHAHHAHHHAAAAAAHAHHAHA.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

Non-fantasy prediction:

 

Donovan McNabb wins NFC Offensive MVP and does not play the following season with the Eagles because the Eagles will give him a crappy new offer and let him walk.

[nordwave 2]

Anyone going to stick to their bold predictions come draft time?

I'm taking Chris Johnson in Round 1 if he's still on the board in my league.

Even if I wind up with the #1 overall pick, I'll take C.J.

[fantasymind 1]

No RB in the league catches 5 balls a game, much less 8. Bush, yes, but I think most will agree we can no longer consider him a RB. He's more of a WR who gets about 40 rush yards per game. MJD caught 62 balls last year. That's not even 4 per game. I think the whole RBs who catch a lot of passes thing is a bit overblown. If AD gets 130 yards and a touch with 2 rec for 20 yards (which is a decent day for him), he equals MJD who gets 90 yards on the ground, a touch and 4 rec for 40 yards (which is a decent day for him). The difference, and why I think you take AD first in any format, is the explosive potential. I.e. those games where he gets upwards of 200 yards or 3 TDs or both. He didn't have a game like that last year and he still finished near the top. I think he will have a few this year. Sure you have the occasional game where a guy like Barber gets 10 rec and that will win you a game that week, but that is just as rare (and perhaps more so) than a huge day from a guy like AD or Turner. A 1-2 rec per game difference doesn't really change who I draft at the top. It's more beneficial, I think, in deciding between mid to low tier players--with rec being the deciding factor among similar players...

 

A couple of thoughts on your take---

 

I may not have stated it well, but my statement regarding a Rb who catches "5-8 balls a game" was not meant to imply that the player will average 5-8 catches per game. Instead, and what I should have stated, was that there are Rbs who are actively involved in their team's passing games (and a 5-8 catch game is not out of the norm) and then there are Rbs who are not. I believe that the RBs who are involved in the passing game are more valuable than the ones who are not in a PPR league, including all of the top tier guys. Here are my main arguments why:

 

I want the top back on my fantasy team to have the most potential to score points, in all manners, in any given week, regardless of matchup or team success. A two-down back's numbers are basically tied to the overall flow of the individual game...if his team is winning or in a close contest, he is likely to see alot of fourth quarter rushes, with the chance to up his rushing totals and maybe tack on a td. Which is great in those weeks where that back's team is winning. BUT, in those weeks where his team is down by three scores in the third quarter and have abandoned the run, the points that you expect from that top guy remain on the sidelines as the passing down back comes in for end of the game duty. Now, with a dual threat guy like MJD or Forte, you get all of those fourth quarter rushes in the wins, PLUS all of those garbage dumpoffs at the end of a loss that end up offsetting the fact that his team abandoned the run in the third quarter. So, instead of a disappointing week by a guy like AD, you get an average day from an MJD. Sure, Peterson will probably have a game or two where he blows up, but he is also going to have a game or two where he craps the bed because Minnesota gets blown out. Dual threat guys like MJD and Forte are far less likely to put up complete stinkers, based on the points they amass from receptions. In essence, I'll trade the huge game potential for week to week consistency from my top guy. End of the year numbers mean very little if a guy is not putting up points week in and week out, since most of us play in head to head leagues.

 

My other argument has been said by many before, so I won't beat it to death, but, simply put, a 60 reception guy versus a 20 reception guy is a 40 point difference that needs to be made up by the 20 catch guy right from the start. In a league where all tds are 6 points, that is a 6+ TD advantage that the 60 catch guy has that the 20 catch guy needs to make up---considering that MJD has better TDs numbers in his career than Peterson (14-9-15 for MJD, 13-10 for AD), that is alot of catching up AD has to do to account for those catches.

 

I get your love for AD and can't knock you for wanting to take him first based on his explosive potential...it's just that I think there are some guys with similar upsides who I believe will be more consistent in leagues where their receptions are awarded a point.

[Ras66not99 0]

Dwayne Bowe will lead the league in receptions....

 

Reggie Wayne is the # 1 fantasy Wr next year....

 

The Falcons fall back to earth and finish below .500.... (6-10/7-9) Michael Turner dissapoints everyone

 

Chris Johnson will be the # 1 fantasy RB in leagues that award long distance TD's...

 

Beanie Wells goes for a Grand and 10Td's and wins the R.O.Y.

[unckeyherb 2]

No RB in the league catches 5 balls a game, much less 8. Bush, yes, but I think most will agree we can no longer consider him a RB. He's more of a WR who gets about 40 rush yards per game. MJD caught 62 balls last year. That's not even 4 per game. I think the whole RBs who catch a lot of passes thing is a bit overblown. If AD gets 130 yards and a touch with 2 rec for 20 yards (which is a decent day for him), he equals MJD who gets 90 yards on the ground, a touch and 4 rec for 40 yards (which is a decent day for him). The difference, and why I think you take AD first in any format, is the explosive potential. I.e. those games where he gets upwards of 200 yards or 3 TDs or both. He didn't have a game like that last year and he still finished near the top. I think he will have a few this year. Sure you have the occasional game where a guy like Barber gets 10 rec and that will win you a game that week, but that is just as rare (and perhaps more so) than a huge day from a guy like AD or Turner. A 1-2 rec per game difference doesn't really change who I draft at the top. It's more beneficial, I think, in deciding between mid to low tier players--with rec being the deciding factor among similar players...

Two years ago, Westbrook had 90 catches. Averages out to a little more than 5 per game.

just sayin

[kmbryant09 1]

I disagree. If they didn't go run heavy when Brady went down, why would they now? Matt Cassell was an unproven guy who looked pretty bad at the onset, yet they remained true to what they do and who they are. McDaniels is a BB protege, he got his style from the HC and had to have the okay with every play. So to think McDaniels is the mastermind, IMO, is false. Their bread is buttered with Brady, Moss, and Welker. Not with 3 33 year old RBs and an injury prone talent. Not much is going to change as far as that offense is concerned. Will they be as successful? No. But they will bomb first, and I expect Brady to rival Brees for top QB of '09...

 

Well he's bringing the system to Denver, so he had to have a pretty decent say in things

 

Also, It'd be dumb for the Patriots to try and repeat 2007 with a healthy Brady:

1. Brady probably isn't in the same shape/condition/throwing & game condition he was in 2007, I'd expect to see a little rust if he was asked to throw the ball 40 times a game.

2. NFL teams make adjustments. Just like they did to Manning and the Colts in his record breakin season, its just absolutely too impossible to repeat something like that.

3. The Pats found out the hard way that they needed a running game to win the Super Bowl. They have about 6 talented backs on their roster coupled with a solid OLine

4. They saw what happend last year if Brady goes down...I think they look to minimize his exposure to hits/risk.

5. As my original point, one of the leaders of this system just packed up and moved to Denver, BB didn't call the plays, nor do I really believe he was IN CHARGE of the offense (he was always known as a DEF minded coach). I think there will be some adjustments to be made in New England.

 

Not sayin Brady can't go out and throw for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs, I just think that would be more towards his ceiling this year than an average, or basement for him like some people are saying.

[Gepetto 988]

The Patriots have been a pass first team since 1993 Bledsoe and then Tom Brady, and Matt Cassell. Every year a pass first (meaning more passes than rushes) every year since 1993. That's not gonna change and nothing you can say will convince me otherwise.

[kmbryant09 1]

The Patriots have been a pass first team since 1993 Bledsoe and then Tom Brady, and Matt Cassell. Every year a pass first (meaning more passes than rushes) every year since 1993. That's not gonna change and nothing you can say will convince me otherwise.

 

I'm not talkin about that, look at Brady's stats - he has had ONE YEAR a top fantasy football...other than that he averages somethin like 3,800 yards and 23 TDs or somethin...That doesn't put you in a top 3 QB. Everyone talks about Brady bein a long for 4,400 and 35+ TDs again, I'm not buyin it.

 

And to call a team a "pass first team" simply cause they called more passing plays than running plays is a little dumb, I'm willin to bet more than 60% of the teams called more pass plays than running plays...

[Admiral Awesome 0]

DeAngelo Williams becomes fantasy football hero of the year. He continues his march to success.

[jocstrap 8]

DeAngelo Williams becomes fantasy football hero of the year. He continues his march to success.

 

 

I'm going to agree with you here. I like Dwilly as a top 3 rb again. He could approach the 2000 total yard mark with 15+ td's IMO. I don't understand why he's not getting the respect he's earned.

[Gepetto 988]

I'm not talkin about that, look at Brady's stats - he has had ONE YEAR a top fantasy football...other than that he averages somethin like 3,800 yards and 23 TDs or somethin...That doesn't put you in a top 3 QB. Everyone talks about Brady bein a long for 4,400 and 35+ TDs again, I'm not buyin it.

 

And to call a team a "pass first team" simply cause they called more passing plays than running plays is a little dumb, I'm willin to bet more than 60% of the teams called more pass plays than running plays...

 

It's significantly more passing than running. I didn't say that b/c I didn't want to look it up. In anycase I agree with you about Tom Brady.

[ROYALWITCHEESE 0]

I'm not talkin about that, look at Brady's stats - he has had ONE YEAR a top fantasy football...other than that he averages somethin like 3,800 yards and 23 TDs or somethin...That doesn't put you in a top 3 QB. Everyone talks about Brady bein a long for 4,400 and 35+ TDs again, I'm not buyin it.

 

And to call a team a "pass first team" simply cause they called more passing plays than running plays is a little dumb, I'm willin to bet more than 60% of the teams called more pass plays than running plays...

 

 

Yes, BUT. None of those Pats teams had a Moss or Welker or anything close to it...