Look-Alike Players: Matt Ryan vs. Matt Schaub

[Fumbleweed 547]

Look-Alike Players seeks to try to distinguish between two players whose redraft values appear to be almost identical. Today, the choice is Matt Ryan vs. Matt Schaub.

 

Feel free to vote and then add thoughts on why you voted for who you did throughout the thread. This is an old FFToday feature that will be continued this spring/summer as dictated by the interest it garners.

 

Results so far in '09:

 

Braylon Edwards over Chad Johnson, 17-10.

Tom Brady over Peyton Manning, 14-6.

Chris Johnson over Steve Slaton, 31-18.

Ronnie Brown over Ryan Grant, 21-9.

Donald Driver over Derrick Mason, 14-8.

Brandon Jacobs over Marion Barber, 20-14.

[KSB2424 3,148]

My brain keeps telling me Ryan. Yet my gut is screaming Schaub. Obviously with his injury history he is always a little shaky to own, but Schaub's ceiling is ridiculous (top 5). Ryan is prolly the safer pick, but I have Schaub ranked a tad higher.

[kmbryant09 1]

I think if both played 16 games this season - I'd take Schaub easily...He has Andre Johnson to throw to on a young emerging offense, and Schaub has put up solid numbers WHEN he's healthy. That being said, I'm sure Ryan will put up more total fantasy points this season because Schaub is likely to miss time. I just don't think Ryan will make the leap to a top5-7 QB. He played pretty much to the best of his ability last year, so it will be hard for him to improve a ton over one season. I know some people would argue they'll open up the playbook for him more, but they (the ATL coaching staff) are still a run oriented team, and will still look to set up the pass by pounding Michael Turner. I just don't think he'll throw the ball enough to compete fantasy-wise with Manning, Brady, Brees, Warner, Rodgers, Romo, a healthy Palmer, McNabb.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

in 4 pt passing TD leagues, Ryan was the 15th ranked QB as a rookie, very close to Campbell and Eli.

Schaub was 20th while missing 5 games.

 

Ryan now has Tony Gonzalez to help especially in the red zone. Schaub really doesn't have anything new but he still has a top 5 WR and an emerging 2nd year RB

 

I really don't know who to take here but I went with Schaub because Im a sucker for his potential is he plays all 16 games.

[We Tigers 71]

Gotta say Schaub because of being on a loaded offense and the huge potential he has. I like Matt Ryan and think he has more upside than Campbell/Garrard/Eli, but a similar floor to those players, who I wouldn't sweat over drafting until at least rounds 10 or 11. Schaub almost put up identical numbers to Ryan in 5 fewer games, throwing for 300 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT less. I'd probably try to back either of these guys up with a top-15 QB to hedge my bets since I have consistency questions about both, so I'm leaning Schaub.

[Melissa Stark 1]

I like Ryan.I think a more rounded team.

I disagree with kmbryant09 on the Rb's. McNabb and Manning did pretty well with Westy and Edge for years? Rodgers has Grant.

 

I don't see it hurting him a bit, Gonzo even factors in more.

I'd rank either in with Eli, personally.

[remote controller 143]

Bravo Fumble!!!! I have never seen a BETTER Look-a-like, close call, ever. I just now decided, as I was typing, who would be my choice.

 

TE's - Owen Daniels is good, Gonzo is better, but it is his first year. Young Qb's love good TE's as safety valves though.

Wr's - AJ and Walters are a great Combo. Roddy is great and Jenkins is servicable, so these two work well together.

Rb's - Turner can run and Norwood can catch and change it up. Slaton was a force in his rookie season, and is working hard to avoid the wall.

 

I give Ryan the edge in this one because of Shaubs inability to stay on the field.

[dksmith17380 0]

Ryan is the most overhyped fantasy QB in a long time IMO. Keep me as far away as possible from him. Run first offenses do not produce good qbs. I can't beleive this is even a thread topic.

[remote controller 143]

Ryan is the most overhyped fantasy QB in a long time IMO. Keep me as far away as possible from him. Run first offenses do not produce good qbs. I can't beleive this is even a thread topic.

Why? It gave you the oppurtunity to deliver your strong opinion. Now you have to live by it!

[karmarooster 0]

Ryan is the most overhyped fantasy QB in a long time IMO. Keep me as far away as possible from him. Run first offenses do not produce good qbs. I can't beleive this is even a thread topic.

 

i have to agree with this. basically this debate is about schaub's ability to stay healthy vs. ryan's potential improvement. even if Ryan improves on his numbers from last year, he won't come close to a healthy schaub. if schaub is healthy, he is top 6 material. even if Ryan improves somewhat, he's looking around 8-12.

 

basically, Ryan is a solid QB2. Schaub is a legit QB1 (just make sure you get a solid back up).

 

my whole draft strategy this year revolves around getting one of the following value QBs who have a shot at top 5 or top 10 in the 7th or 8th round (in order):

• McNabb
  
• Schaub
  
• Palmer
  
• Cutler
  
• Ryan
  

[dksmith17380 0]

i have to agree with this. basically this debate is about schaub's ability to stay healthy vs. ryan's potential improvement. even if Ryan improves on his numbers from last year, he won't come close to a healthy schaub. if schaub is healthy, he is top 6 material. even if Ryan improves somewhat, he's looking around 8-12.

 

basically, Ryan is a solid QB2. Schaub is a legit QB1 (just make sure you get a solid back up).

 

my whole draft strategy this year revolves around getting one of the following value QBs who have a shot at top 5 or top 10 in the 7th or 8th round (in order):

• McNabb
  
• Schaub
  
• Palmer
  
• Cutler
  
• Ryan
  

 

^^ agreed

also don't forget some others like:

Rodgers, Cassell, Pennington, Rothlisberger, Eli. Although Rodgers might be taken very high. All of these guys had very good to decent 08 seasons comparable or better to Ryan's season.

 

I even think Garrard, Shaun Hill and Orton will be better than Ryan in 09.

 

At the end of the day, Ryan had 3400 pass yards and 16 TDs in 2008. Not something to freak over IMO. The addition of an aging TE doesn't put me over the edge to reach on a guy like this. Good winning QBs just don't translate to good fntsy QBs.

[dksmith17380 0]

Schaub played 11 games and totaled 3043 PY 15 pass TDs and 2 Rush TDs.

 

Almost the same numbers as Ryan with 5 less games.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

Schaub played 11 games and totaled 3043 PY 15 pass TDs and 2 Rush TDs.

 

Almost the same numbers as Ryan with 5 less games.

 

while i pick schaub, He still has to stay healthy for those extra 5 games or it doesn't really matter.

[kmbryant09 1]

I like Ryan.I think a more rounded team.

I disagree with kmbryant09 on the Rb's. McNabb and Manning did pretty well with Westy and Edge for years? Rodgers has Grant.

 

I don't see it hurting him a bit, Gonzo even factors in more.

I'd rank either in with Eli, personally.

I understand your disagreement, but you've got to realize that all the teams you mentioned were ALWAYS pass first teams. Ever since Manning arrived in Indy, and Andy Reid in Philly, both teams have been pass oriented teams. Also, Westy and Edge are more complete backs, and are actually more valuable coming out of the backfield and catching balls then pounding the run in between the tackles 25 times a game.

 

Part of the reason Ryan experienced success was because he wasn't often called on to shoulder the load. He was able to pick his spots while handing the ball of to Turner (376 carries - a number I don't think Westy or Edge ever approached with those 2 teams) and moving the chains. My point was that Atlanta was probably one of the heaviest RUN-FIRST teams in the league last year, which will always limit a QBs fantasy production.

[nordwave 2]

I think Ryan will be good, but Schaub will be better.

 

All of these QBs out-scored Matt Ryan in our league last year (6pt passing TDs):

 

Matt Cassel

Chad Pennington

David Garrard

Eli Manning

Tyler Thigpen

[dksmith17380 0]

Ryan this year's Derek Anderson?

 

hmmmm

[dhockster 0]

while i pick schaub, He still has to stay healthy for those extra 5 games or it doesn't really matter.

 

Not true. If Schaub is healthy for 11 games, then based on last years stats, he will outperform Ryan fairly significantly over those 11 games. You will have a backup starting in at least 4 of the other 5 games (probably not in the game Schaub gets hurt). Assuming you have a decent backup, then it is not likely that Ryan will outperform your backup in those 5 games more than Schaub outperforms Ryan in the 11 games he is healthy.

 

The above assumes they perform at the same level as last year.

 

Changes in 2009:

 

Ryan:

 

No longer a rookie - Positive

Added Gonzalez - Positive

 

Schaub:

 

Slaton and LT Brown no longer rookies - Positive

Continuity on Offensive Line - Positive

Fairly good chance Texans Defense takes a step up this year - Negative (may not be in as many shootouts/must pass games)

Continuity on line may allow Schaub to stay injury free - Positive

 

I think Schaub is likely to play most if not all of the season this year, and will put up very good numbers. I think Ryan will put up better numbers than last year because he is no longer a rookie, but I think he will fall short of where Schaub is.

 

I would take Schaub, but make sure I had a quality back-up.

[dksmith17380 0]

You have to be kidding yourself if you think you can predict injuries.

[DankNuggs 305]

Ryan is the most overhyped fantasy QB in a long time IMO. Keep me as far away as possible from him. Run first offenses do not produce good qbs. I can't beleive this is even a thread topic.

Well, he was considered the most 'OVER RATED' #1 pick in a LONG time as well... until he came out and threw for 3500 yds....

 

Good smart QB, balanced offense, cannon arm.... plays on a fast track in a dome...

 

Just because Shaub might out produce Ryan doesn't mean the guy isn't very very good, and going to get better...

 

With that said, i don't see him passing for more than 20 TD's, so it limits his ability to be a top FF QB....

[DankNuggs 305]

while i pick schaub, He still has to stay healthy for those extra 5 games or it doesn't really matter.

You also presume last years production on a game by game basis is a lock....

 

 

 

Its so funny coming back to this board every summer and seeing everyone presume that what happens last year will happen again this year... It doesn't...

[dhockster 0]

You have to be kidding yourself if you think you can predict injuries.

 

No, but for someone who is injured a lot like Schaub, you can look at how he got hurt. Was it a non-contact injury or did he take a hard hit? In Schaub's case he took a hard hit. If you think his line is more consistent, and is going to allow fewer hard hits than the prior year, than you could say he less likely to get hurt than in the prior year.

 

Also, I said take a good back-up, just in case Schaub gets injured like he has in the last few years.

 

The point of my post was that even with Schaub's injury possibilities, I would take him over Ryan.

[DankNuggs 305]

The point of my post was that even with Schaub's injury possibilities, I would take him over Ryan.

clearly, you said Ryan was like the most overrated QB ever....

[dksmith17380 0]

The most telling stat:

 

The average NFL team last year had 3586 pssing yards with 20 pssing TDs.

Ryan in a full season totaled 3400 Passing yards with 16 Passing TDs.

 

So he is actually below average in 2008 and played against a fairly easy schedule. Now in 2009 defenses have tape on him and can adjust to his tendencies and he has a harder schedule. Does this sound like a top 10 QB to you?

[dksmith17380 0]

clearly, you said Ryan was like the most overrated QB ever....

False

I said he was the most overhyped fantasy QB in a while. Still a solid QB.

[dhockster 0]

clearly, you said Ryan was like the most overrated QB ever....

No, that was dksmith, not me.

[DankNuggs 305]

The most telling stat:

 

The average NFL team last year had 3586 pssing yards with 20 pssing TDs.

Ryan in a full season totaled 3400 Passing yards with 16 Passing TDs.

 

So he is actually below average in 2008 and played against a fairly easy schedule. Now in 2009 defenses have tape on him and can adjust to his tendencies and he has a harder schedule. Does this sound like a top 10 QB to you?

Well, if you make a presumption that a QB's best season is going to be his rookie season...then yes... Frankly, i don't believe that.

 

I'd say he has upside... could be a fair amount of upside... and getting to top 10 isn't a monstrous jump in production...

[Melissa Stark 1]

Good points kmbryant09.

 

Maybe Ryan ends up like Big Ben/Aikmen type? A game manager with wins but FF killer.

 

 

This is another great off season thread directly linked with the Turner thread.

 

I do like the direction the Texans are heading, but today, I still like the Falcons over them.

[kmbryant09 1]

Good points kmbryant09.

 

Maybe Ryan ends up like Big Ben/Aikmen type? A game manager with wins but FF killer.

This is another great off season thread directly linked with the Turner thread.

 

I do like the direction the Texans are heading, but today, I still like the Falcons over them.

Thanks

 

I think Matt Ryan will end up putting solid numbers, both fantasy and real-life, but like you said, especially early in his career I see him as a solid NFL Qb and a weak fantasy QB. Everyone praised him on his work last year (rightfully so), but his fantasy numbers were middle of the road, at best. I'm sure he will improve. How much? no one really knows...When will it happen? No one really knows. He also isn't in a situation where he'll need to throw 35 times a game, which as I mentioned be4, limits his potential. I think his average game will be somethin like 17-29 for 185 yards, 1/2 TDs 0/1 INTs this year. Not bad, but not worthy of a top10 spot

[We Tigers 71]

Matt Ryan was valuable to fantasy owners last year, but not as any sort of stud. In my experience he was invaluable as a completely serviceable option that mostly went undrafted or was cut to the waiver wire pretty quickly, and was refuge to the guys who drafted Palmer/Kitna or some other combination of guys that was totally out of commission by the first few weeks of the year. I think he has a great chance to improve and be solid this year, but I'm still targeting only as a second-tier guy or excellent backup, which means he'll probably be drafted before I think about him.

[Gepetto 1,367]

Schaub and it's not even close. I consider Schaub a top 7 QB. Matt Ryan is a middle of the road backup unless he really steps it up this year which I'm not willing to predict.

[Dan 66]

I get the "look-alike" aspect of these two players, and perhaps they will end up close . . . but I can't see it. At least from my perspective. One guy has shown what he can do, the caveat being that he hasn't stayed healthy. The other is a kid who frankly has a lot to live up to, with coordinators making adjustments through the offseason. Don't forget Ryan's a second year player. Can he improve on a stellar rookie season? I dunno. I don't know that I'm willing to risk my season on it. I'd sooner trust to Schaub's health.

[Fumbleweed 547]

The look-alike aspect has to do with their perceived fantasy value. For better or for worse, they are ranked side by side in any set of "expert" rankings that you can find. Their ADPs are very similar. They are two very different players....yes, but when all factors are considered, there is a split about which is more worthy of a selection in a redraft.

[mhrtanek 0]

It is a tough call.

 

Ryan has Gonzo and Roddy with a stellar run game to play-action off of and Ryan has no history of injury.

But, Schaub has a decent run game and has Daniels, Walter and oh, ANDRE JOHNSON! However, Schaub does have some injury issues.

 

I lean towards Schaub with the Texans probably trailing or needing to have a "shoot out" to win week to week, therefore larger numbers for fantasy.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

I have a gut feeling Schaub will have one of his healthiest seasons. I like the Texans offense and Schaub's experience a little more then Ryan's.

[FlaHawker 24]

Bravo Fumble!!!! I have never seen a BETTER Look-a-like, close call, ever. I just now decided, as I was typing, who would be my choice.

 

TE's - Owen Daniels is good, Gonzo is better, but it is his first year. Young Qb's love good TE's as safety valves though.

Wr's - AJ and Walters are a great Combo. Roddy is great and Jenkins is servicable, so these two work well together.

Rb's - Turner can run and Norwood can catch and change it up. Slaton was a force in his rookie season, and is working hard to avoid the wall.

 

I give Ryan the edge in this one because of Shaubs inability to stay on the field.

This is the correct response

[G-in O-town 0]

I have a gut feeling Schaub will have one of his healthiest seasons. I like the Texans offense and Schaub's experience a little more then Ryan's.

 

 

Certainly hope week one was only a one week blunder...

[bweiser831 0]

and to think they were born 5 miles apart (or less).