karmarooster 0 Posted July 12, 2009 I'm developing a major bromance for Kyle Orton this year in Denver with McDaniels. Let's take a look at Orton's stats last year for Chicago before he sprained his ankle in week 8 vs. Detroit. 7 games played 1669 yards 10 TDs 4 INTs 62.2% completions Prorated to 16 games, that's 3814 yards, 22.8 TDs, and 9.1 INTs. In WCOFF scoring (20 yards/point, 4pt TD, -1 INT) = 272 points. Without even considering rushing yardage, in 2008 that would've been good enough for 9th overall, just after Cassel (288) and ahead of Garrard (261). There's every reason to assume those numbers will increase because of Denver's O-Line, Marshall, Royal, Gaffney, Stokely, Scheffler, Moreno, Buckhalter, and McDaniels himself. Cassel threw for 3693 yards, 21 TDs, and 11 INTs, but his total points are boosted by 270 yards and 2 TDs rushing. Orton won't take off like Cassel, but he should still improve on those passing numbers. He won't be learning on the job like Cassel last year after Brady went down, but will have training camp and preseason to get adjusted to McDaniels complex system. Cassel had been learning the system for several years, but hadn't played a game since high school! He also had a tendency to get happy feet in the pocket, esp. in the first half of the season. Orton on the other hand is 26 years old and a seasoned veteran. Denver's O-Line is just as good if not better than New England's, and certainly much better than Chicago's. Like NE, Denver also has quality WRs. Here's how they stack up: Denver Offense total plays/avg = 1019/6.2 yards Rushing att/avg = 387/4.8 yards Passing att/avg = 620/7.3 yards Sacks = 26 Attempts/sack = 23.8 Passing att/TD = 24.8 New England Offense total plays/avg = 1095/5.3 yards Rushing att/avg = 513/4.4 yards Passing att/avg = 534/7.1 yards Sacks = 31 Attempts/sack = 17.2 Passing att/TD = 25.4 To come up with some projections for Orton, i think you have to consider Denver, Chicago, and New England. There's alot of variables here so it's certainly guesswork. In NE, McDaniels had a run/pass ratio of 49/51 last year... Denver's defense will prevent him from maintaining that. I'll adjust that to 45/55. We can just use an even 1000 offensive plays as a baseline, so that gives 550 pass attempts. Orton should be able to match Cassel's 7.1 yards/att but maybe not Cutler's 7.3 yards/att. Orton 1st 7 games Passing att/avg = 230/7.25 Passing att/TD = 23 550 x 7.25 = 3,987 yards passing. 550/23 = 23.9 TDs. For INTs, we can take the average from NE(11), Denver(18), and Orton's pro-rated season(9) = 12.6 INTs. Orton also rushed for 49 yards, but pro-rate his first 7 games and you get 85 yards... also had 3 rushing TDs. I'll give him just 1 rushing TD. Orton had 5 fumbles, Cassel had 4. Subtract 8 points... 3,987 yards passing, 23.9 TDs, 12.6 INTS, 85 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 fumbles ===> 288.8 points. In 2008, that would've been #8 QB, after McNabb (290.7) and ahead of Cassel (288.6). Denver's defense will be atrocious once again, but that's a recipe for big points from QB, WRs, and a pass-catching RB. Orton's passing yardage could exceed 4,000, and his total points could push 300 putting him near Manning (302.6) and #6 QB last year. I only see two potential problems with Orton, but they are big ones. Let's say the Broncos start off 0-4, McDaniels could lose control of the team. Or if the Broncos are 3-9 or something and decide to give the QB job to Chris Simms for a few games to see if he's worth keeping around. On FantasyFootballCalculator, Orton's ADP is 115 overall, round 10.07, QB#16. This is the kind of value player that can help you to a title, like Warner, Rodgers, and Rivers last year. My goal is to find THIS YEAR'S Warner/Rodgers/Rivers. Can anyone convince me Orton WON'T be a top 10 QB in 2009? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wicked joe 0 Posted July 12, 2009 I have former Purdue guy in my office and he doesn't believe in Orton. That concerns me a little, but I still think Orton is going to be very solid in 2009. Better System + Better Health + Better WRs = More Orton. Seems pretty clear to me. That neck beard is hard to get over, but I think he can overcome poor facial hair decisions. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ras66not99 0 Posted July 12, 2009 As for Orton I agree with everything you said karm, I can see him falling right into the lower level Qb 1 area.... fantasy is all about opportunity.....with all the facts in front of us baring injury I don't see how this guy doesn't give us 3,800 and 18 Don't forget Mcdaniels is young and he'll continue to have an "personal" inner fued with Jay Cutler, so I believe Josh will juice up those passing stats just to have that on his side at the end of the year.... when the Denver fans get on his ass about the whole Cutler thing... sounds dumb but I said the same thing about Rodgers last year Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,172 Posted July 12, 2009 Prorated to 16 games, that's 3814 yards, 22.8 TDs, and 9.1 INTs. In WCOFF scoring (20 yards/point, 4pt TD, -1 INT) = 272 points. This is a great topic and I also really like Orton as a great backup fantasy QB this year... I love what he did in Chicago behind a lesser line and with lesser weapons. Hopefully Brandon Marshall stays in town. But please, delete the above quote from your topic and mind. No one cares what someone prorated stats would be. If you got injured, you got injured. Its the worst argument anyone can use in a player's favor. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mobb_deep 917 Posted July 12, 2009 Very interesting data karmarooster. Thanks for the time you put into this post. I'm not sure why you're using only the first 7 games as a benchmark. The sprain happened the week before the bye and he only missed 1 game. Injuries are a part of the game, so you can't really get rid of an entire half season to strengthen your projections. I find it hard to believe that a guy with a 55% career completion @ a 6.0 clip will all of a sudden have a 7.25 clip. Using your 550 attempts at a generous 6.5 clip you get 3575 yards. That said, I think his numbers will be more around 3575, 21.2 TD's and 13 INT's. That would put him right around QB12 in my league scoring (4 pt passing TD, -1 INT). a very solid #2, but not a team changing player. If any of the late QB's have upside, it's Carson Palmer. Aside from Whosyourmama, this is the same squad he threw for 4000 and 25+ in 06 and 07. he has a career 7.5 clip with 550+ attempt average. He's mocking in the 8th round as QB 12 right now. Obviously there's some questions about his shoulder, but he easily has the most upside of all the QB's being drafted round 8 or later. My .02 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
We Tigers 71 Posted July 12, 2009 I don't know about the pro-rating of stats. To me, Orton's dropoff was less about injury and more about an inconsistent player like Orton being unable to maintain a high level of production all year. McDaniels' system and tutelage might help him a bit, but I have a hard time seeing him as more than part of a QBBC for a fantasy team. There's upside there if he takes to the playmakers and continues to improve, but for this season there are several QBs near or below his ADP whom I like better for those upside/backup purposes (Hasselback, Edwards, and Garrard). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FeelingMN 273 Posted July 12, 2009 I think Orton makes for a very solid QB2, but it's a stretch to think he'll approach Rivers/Warner/Rodgers of 2008. The guy does have a nice arsenal of weapons to use in the Denver offense: Moreno/Marshall/Royal/Scheffler(for the 6 games he's actually healthy) and an outstanding offensive line. Couple that to the fact that the Denver defense probably won't be that much improved from last year, and I think you can safely assume Orton will post good, though not spectacular, numbers throughout the year. The guys who are slipping later in drafts who could put up Rodgers/Warner/Rivers numbers are Schaub/Palmer/Hass. Each one has shown that they're capable of posting solid numbers, and each one has a nice compliment of offensive tools to work with.....and they all are going in the 7th or later. I think Schaub has the best chance of putting up solid QB1 numbers....Palmer lowend QB1...and Hass lowQB1, high QB2....and is probably pretty similar to Orton in value...although the SEA O-line scares me a bit, and might knock Hasselbeck out of consideration if they don't perform well. All in all, Orton presents nice value for where he's going in drafts and does have the opportunity to surprise some folks this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stonewall 647 Posted July 12, 2009 There's every reason to assume those numbers will increase because of Denver's O-Line, Marshall, Royal, Gaffney, Stokely, Scheffler, Moreno, Buckhalter, and McDaniels himself. And don't forget my man Hillis......he is forgotten, but will be in the mix, and has great hands outta the backfield. Interesting topic and useful #'s on Orton, as I have been torn on this guy. For me, it all hinges on whether or not Marshall stays. If he goes, I don't touch him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Darko M 0 Posted July 12, 2009 He certainly saved me for a few games after Brady went down..then he broke my heart when he went down. I wish him well though, I don't see why he can't flourish in Denver. Good value. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Road_Cats 1 Posted July 12, 2009 Don't believe the hype. Marshall unhappy, traded there franchise QB, ###### defense.. now everyone says this bolds well for Orton's numbers but there is no certiany in that. A head coach who is way over his head < yes if you get to speculate on Orton just cause he is in Denver than I can speculate about the HC for same reason> By mid season this becomes the train wreck we all know its going to be. I cannot believe he is even in the top 16 making him a starter in any league by week starter at best. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
9-Route 0 Posted July 13, 2009 def could be the winner. the flavor of the offseason has been to laugh/bash the broncos for their fast fall from grace[??], including the coaching move, the new coach-old qb fiasco, the questionable drafting plan and execution, and continued marshall news. we all think this team and defense will be bad, just like the 2008 falcs-fins-ravens. there has to be at least one unanimous "oops" in fantasy this yr...... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Road_Cats 1 Posted July 13, 2009 def could be the winner. the flavor of the offseason has been to laugh/bash the broncos for their fast fall from grace[??], including the coaching move, the new coach-old qb fiasco, the questionable drafting plan and execution, and continued marshall news. we all think this team and defense will be bad, just like the 2008 falcs-fins-ravens. there has to be at least one unanimous "oops" in fantasy this yr...... Its not the Denver Defense they suck and have been for at least 3 to 4 years . They can't stop the run period. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
karmarooster 0 Posted July 13, 2009 This is a great topic and I also really like Orton as a great backup fantasy QB this year... I love what he did in Chicago behind a lesser line and with lesser weapons. Hopefully Brandon Marshall stays in town. But please, delete the above quote from your topic and mind. No one cares what someone prorated stats would be. If you got injured, you got injured. Its the worst argument anyone can use in a player's favor. While there is some flawed logic with pro-rated stats, they are somewhat useful in Orton's case... they show what he may have been capable of in Chicago with lackluster WRs and O-Line. Also, after the injury he rushed back to play after only 1 week off. His ankle was badly sprained and from everything i've read it was a problem for him for the rest of the year. yes i know every player can get injured, but to dismiss his injury entirely and not look at what he did when healthy is to ignore some evidence. look at Andre Johnson two years ago... 9 games played, 60 receptions for 851 yards. Prorated to 16 games, that's 106 receptions for 1512 yards.... his stats when healthy in 2009 were 115 receptions for 1575 yards. How can pro-rated stats not be useful? Very interesting data karmarooster. Thanks for the time you put into this post. I'm not sure why you're using only the first 7 games as a benchmark. The sprain happened the week before the bye and he only missed 1 game. Injuries are a part of the game, so you can't really get rid of an entire half season to strengthen your projections. I find it hard to believe that a guy with a 55% career completion @ a 6.0 clip will all of a sudden have a 7.25 clip. Using your 550 attempts at a generous 6.5 clip you get 3575 yards. That said, I think his numbers will be more around 3575, 21.2 TD's and 13 INT's. That would put him right around QB12 in my league scoring (4 pt passing TD, -1 INT). a very solid #2, but not a team changing player. If any of the late QB's have upside, it's Carson Palmer. Aside from Whosyourmama, this is the same squad he threw for 4000 and 25+ in 06 and 07. he has a career 7.5 clip with 550+ attempt average. He's mocking in the 8th round as QB 12 right now. Obviously there's some questions about his shoulder, but he easily has the most upside of all the QB's being drafted round 8 or later. My .02 see above about Oron's ankle injury... i think it negatively affected his play for the rest of the season, even though he only missed one game. On the other hand, you could argue that with some game film, defenses were able to adjust to Chicago's offense. the truth is that both of these probably contributed to Orton's decrease in production. However after reading your post i think it may be a good idea to be more conservative with his yards/att. His career number doesn't mean that much to me, though, because it come mostly from 15 games played as rookie at 5.1. With McDaniels system, Denvers WRs and O-Line, he should be able to duplicate Cassel's 7.1.... 550 x 7.1 = 3,905 yards. you can also average Orton's prorated att/TD and Cassel's numbers and get 24.2... 550/24.2 = 22.7 TDs. it doesn't affect the projections that much. he's still QB8-QB12 material. def could be the winner. the flavor of the offseason has been to laugh/bash the broncos for their fast fall from grace[??], including the coaching move, the new coach-old qb fiasco, the questionable drafting plan and execution, and continued marshall news. we all think this team and defense will be bad, just like the 2008 falcs-fins-ravens. there has to be at least one unanimous "oops" in fantasy this yr...... i don't think the denver defense is going to surprise anyone this year like the falcons-dolphins-ravens from last year because there just isn't enough talent. but that's not a bad thing for Orton's year end numbers.... a terrible defense can help a QBs fantasy numbers. look no farther than Tyler Thigpen... or Drew Brees... or Jay Cutler... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
VaTerp 0 Posted July 13, 2009 There is some well thought out analysis in this thread and I already liked Orton more than most. The key IMO is Marshall. If he puts everything behind him and suits up for Denver and plays ball then I think Orton puts up very solid FF numbers. If he is able to force a trade or lets things remain an issue going into the season then I think it hurts Orton substantially. Royal and Sheffler are good secondary weapons and I think McDaniels style of offense should work well for Orton w/ a full compliment of weapons but w/o Marshall playing and playing well, all bets are off. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BoltAddiction 0 Posted July 13, 2009 Orton's stats ma7 be deceiving. He only faced six of the top 16 pass defenses last year and only three in the top 10. His numbers over those six games: 1,041 yards, six touchdowns and six picks for an average of 173 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception a game. His only game over 300 yards was against Detroit. Denver's schedule after week 2 is Oakland, Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington, San Diego, New York Giants, Indianapolis in week 14, Oakland in Week 15 and Philadelphia in Week 16. That's nine games against last year's top 10 pass defenses and that does not include the Chargers who should have Merriman back. Personally, I never try to predict injuries, but I'm guessing Simms will see a lot of action this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
karmarooster 0 Posted July 13, 2009 Orton's stats ma7 be deceiving. He only faced six of the top 16 pass defenses last year and only three in the top 10. His numbers over those six games: 1,041 yards, six touchdowns and six picks for an average of 173 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception a game. His only game over 300 yards was against Detroit. Denver's schedule after week 2 is Oakland, Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington, San Diego, New York Giants, Indianapolis in week 14, Oakland in Week 15 and Philadelphia in Week 16. That's nine games against last year's top 10 pass defenses and that does not include the Chargers who should have Merriman back. Personally, I never try to predict injuries, but I'm guessing Simms will see a lot of action this year. i agree that you can't predict injuries. but you're predicting simms? because of injury to orton, his ineffectiveness, a losing record, or simms winning the job? also i'm not very keen on using last year's defensive numbers to evaluate strength of schedule. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
karmarooster 0 Posted July 13, 2009 if you really wanna be conservative, you could downgrade all these projections by 10% to account for the new system... this is a new experience for orton, the WRs, o-line, and head coach. 3,514 yards, 20.4 TDs. As for INTs, Cutler's 18 last year may be a result of either his 'gun-slinger mentality,' being forced to play catch up because of a porous defense, or a lack of healthy RBs. i don't think Orton will have 18 INTs, but 15 wouldn't surprise me. 3500 yards, 20 TDs, 15 INTs puts him in the middle of the backup QB group. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thesitedoc 5 Posted July 13, 2009 Winning fantasy football is all about finding the opportunity to grab value and then grabbing it. IMO the most lucrative source of opportunity is following the changes that take place each year. In this case we have a QB swap. Cutler is going to drop in value because he simply lacks the weapons he had last year. By the same turn, Orton should improve because of the new weapons. For those who are down on Orton because of his past, I would simply suggest that maybe he has never been in a system where he could excel. Now he has a great set of weapons, of very solid Oline and a coach with a West Coast flair. Maybe not the best of schedules but certainly, a crud defense that will require he pass quite a lot. So it seems like the stars are aligned for Orton to have a really good year. I do see him as a border line QB1/QB2 and I think his value is greatly enhanced in leagues that start 2 QB's My prediction 3700 yards 23 TD's I don't bother predicting rushing numbers for QB's Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jgcrawfish 232 Posted July 13, 2009 you know, I saw this thread posted yesterday while I was on briefly and it's been a burr in my saddle ever since. I posted in another thread that I believe that Orton will easily be 8-10 in the QB rankings when the year ends provided that Denver finds a way to hang on to Marshall. Marshall/Royal/Stokely/Moreno is a hell of a set of weapons and with a ball-control/pass-whacky McDaniels at the helm, I think Orton represents a GREAT value pick as a #2 QB who will easily produce like a #1. For all the abuse he takes over his neckbeard, the dude put up decent #'s in limited action last year and was important enough to be included in this deal. The issue, as pointed out, is that Jay Cutler couldn't QB this team to the playoffs last year with the same weapons and same defense, so it's a fairly safe assumption that Orton won't as well...and if the team faulters, a QB change could be in offing. That being said, this guy is one of the three guys I am targeting as good value at QB along with Schaub and Matt Ryan, or Aaron Rodgers if he falls. Last year I picked Cutler in the 7th and Rivers in the 11th of my main 10 teamer using the same logic and ended up with the 2nd and 3rd FF passers in that league. I don't believe in spending an early pick on a QB. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,172 Posted July 13, 2009 While there is some flawed logic with pro-rated stats, they are somewhat useful in Orton's case... they show what he may have been capable of in Chicago with lackluster WRs and O-Line. Also, after the injury he rushed back to play after only 1 week off. His ankle was badly sprained and from everything i've read it was a problem for him for the rest of the year. yes i know every player can get injured, but to dismiss his injury entirely and not look at what he did when healthy is to ignore some evidence. look at Andre Johnson two years ago... 9 games played, 60 receptions for 851 yards. Prorated to 16 games, that's 106 receptions for 1512 yards.... his stats when healthy in 2009 were 115 receptions for 1575 yards. How can pro-rated stats not be useful? I just think its more useful, especially to your argument, just to stick with the great production he had prior to injury and then talk about how he was still decent post injury (possibly while suffering lingering effects). You can still make a great case without padding Ortons stats by prorating his amazing string of games into a full season. Because despite that fact he may have still been recovering and rushed back, you would then have to debate which was the real Kyle Orton and which stats we should prorate.... I guess what im saying is you can;t just pick and choose the better stats to make your case look better. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BoltAddiction 0 Posted July 13, 2009 i agree that you can't predict injuries. but you're predicting simms? because of injury to orton, his ineffectiveness, a losing record, or simms winning the job? also i'm not very keen on using last year's defensive numbers to evaluate strength of schedule. Don't get me wrong karma, as a number two I am not shying away from Orton, but I am just not ready to buy into a three week stint that included Minnesota, Detroit and Atlanta as a reason to shoot my load. Hell, even the stats I presented were tweaked, since Orton had two relatively decent performances against the Eagles and the Buccaneers, who were rated as top ten pass defenses. Like you, I don't evaluate defenses by last year's numbers and that is why I qualified my statement as such. But, you can't discount that this year he will be facing DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Osi Umenyiora, Albert Haynesworth, James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley, James Mathis and Dwight Freeney, Terrell Suggs, etc....Where we have a track record for most QBs and systems, there is none coming into Denver this year. McDaniels has never steered the helm. The caliber of pass rushers he'll be facing is much scarier. The team is in a flux with a questionable off-season (Cutler, Marshall and the draft). Orton's second half of the season was worthless (irrespective of the cause). There is enough reason for me to believe that Orton can be just as easily replaced (whether it's because Merriman turned him into a planter, he becomes gun shy or he just isn't getting it done) as there is to think he can excel. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wiffleball 4,643 Posted July 13, 2009 Always love the "prorating" part. Man, we usually have to wait a while for that around here. "Seneca Wallace had 11 TD's and 1,500 yards in only EIGHT games!! Dude, if you project that out, he's DEFINITELY a top TEN QB this year!!" The only way Orton's going to make "Sleeper of the year" is if he develops Narcolepsy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jgcrawfish 232 Posted July 13, 2009 Always love the "prorating" part. Man, we usually have to wait a while for that around here. "Seneca Wallace had 11 TD's and 1,500 yards in only EIGHT games!! Dude, if you project that out, he's DEFINITELY a top TEN QB this year!!" The only way Orton's going to make "Sleeper of the year" is if he develops Narcolepsy. that was funny wiff, incorrect, but funny. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NFLisGreat79 0 Posted July 14, 2009 +1 Chicago Homer here. Kyle Orton is the real deal. Now that he has some WR weapons in Denver, they will be just fine with him. Kyle Orton is to the Broncos, what Chauncey Billups was to the Nuggets. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
berven 0 Posted July 14, 2009 I can't relate to Kyle-O-Mania at all. The Bears, who know him best, were eager to give Denver two first-rounders and throw in Orton. If the Bears think Cutler is two firsts better than Orton, the odds are low that Kyle will light it up at Mile High. Where's that poster who used to pose as Kyle Orton, the lonely third -stringer whom nobody drafted in Fanball? I'd like to get the fake Orton's thoughts on the stardom predicted for him. Or maybe that was the real Orton, lonely no more. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
karmarooster 0 Posted July 14, 2009 Always love the "prorating" part. Man, we usually have to wait a while for that around here. "Seneca Wallace had 11 TD's and 1,500 yards in only EIGHT games!! Dude, if you project that out, he's DEFINITELY a top TEN QB this year!!" The only way Orton's going to make "Sleeper of the year" is if he develops Narcolepsy. thanks for contributing nothing. Seneca Wallace is a backup behind Hasselbeck, so the comparison is absolutely useless. However, if in 2010 the Hawks went with Seneca as their full time QBs, his pro-rated stats would be a testament to his ABILITY to put up good numbers in LIMITED action. You would be incorrect to assume that his prorated stats would automatically translate into his year end numbers, but they are a small piece of statistical evidence that shouldn't be completely ignored. you bring up Seneca Wallace but you do not comment on Andre Johnson, because he is a perfect example that illustrates my point. his pro-rated stats from about half a season in 2007 are within 5% of his actual numbers in 16 games in 2008. i walked you through a reasonable analysis. the only thing i used from the pro-rated stats was Orton's yards/att, which is inline with Cutler (using Denver WR and o-line) and Cassel (using McDaniel's system). later i slightly adjusted the yards/att to Cassel's 7.1 from last year. The only point of the pro-rated stats was to show that Orton is capable of top 10 production in half a season with an inferior O-line and WR corps. instead of trying to be a funny guy, why don't you enlighten us with your projections? i'm more than happy to hear you disagree with me if you had anything intelligent to say. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wiffleball 4,643 Posted July 14, 2009 thanks for contributing nothing. Seneca Wallace is a backup behind Hasselbeck, so the comparison is absolutely useless. Yes, because God knows Orton hasn't been a back up for the majority of his focking career. Before you chuckleheads go putting him in the HOF, check it: Since his return in week 11 last year (after Grossman looked like Joe Montana compared to him), Orton threw eight touchdowns, and eight interceptions while averaging a quarterback rating of 66.9, including ratings of 39.1 against Minnesota, 49.2 against New Orleans, and 48.7 against Green Bay. Yep, this guy is the real deal all right. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
enis_44 0 Posted July 14, 2009 Hey, if you pick one or two of Lee Evans best weeks and pro-rate it, then the guy should score 48 Td's this year! First round pick!!!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wiffleball 4,643 Posted July 14, 2009 Hey, if you pick one or two of Lee Evans best weeks and pro-rate it, then the guy should score 48 Td's this year! First round pick!!!!! Shhhh... He's my sleeper!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DankNuggs 305 Posted July 14, 2009 Always love the "prorating" part. Man, we usually have to wait a while for that around here. "Seneca Wallace had 11 TD's and 1,500 yards in only EIGHT games!! Dude, if you project that out, he's DEFINITELY a top TEN QB this year!!" The only way Orton's going to make "Sleeper of the year" is if he develops Narcolepsy. untintelligent people presume last year = this year... typical fool..... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
enis_44 0 Posted July 14, 2009 Here's my other favorite one, even worse than pro-rating stats. If you take away all of Drew Brees's long Td passes, then you can see that his yards per attempt really is only pedestrian. So, based on the fact that Brees padded his stats, when you throw out those Td plays, you can see that his performance more closely resembles Orton's. Orton is a gem!!!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wiffleball 4,643 Posted July 14, 2009 untintelligent people presume last year = this year... Are you talking about the 5,000 different stats from LAST YEAR that KarmaRooster listed in the OP? POW! VEAL! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wiffleball 4,643 Posted July 14, 2009 Here's my other favorite one, even worse than pro-rating stats. If you take away all of Drew Brees's long Td passes, then you can see that his yards per attempt really is only pedestrian. So, based on the fact that Brees padded his stats, when you throw out those Td plays, you can see that his performance more closely resembles Orton's. Orton is a gem!!!!! Yep. Latest instance was the guys who somehow think Cutler 'sucks' because "well, a lot of those yards are because the Denver defense was so bad..." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FeelingMN 273 Posted July 14, 2009 untintelligent people presume last year = this year...typical fool..... Can you start a thread about how smart you have to be playing in 2 QB leagues? They're my favorite. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
karmarooster 0 Posted July 15, 2009 you guys are a hilarious. it's a lot easier to crack one-liners on a forum than it is to run some actual numbers. i posted three variations of projections, ranging from 3500-3900 yards. this site isn't about fantasy discussion, it's about lame attempts at fantasy football humor. why consider players and projections when you can just make bad jokes? only two people posted projections in this entire thread, and they were 3500 and 3700 yards. every one of you would-be funny guys could've tried to shoot down my sleeper with actual numbers, but you're probably unable to do that. all the crap about drew brees, lee evans.... and still no one has anything to say about andre johnson. why? i guess because you couldn't think of anything funny to say about it. according to you, football is played in a vacuum. stats from previous years are worthless and should never be considered, manipulated, averaged, or projected. football is entirely a guessing game of 'what will happen this year?' what will adrian peterson rush for? who knows, previous years mean nothing, his YPC could be anywhere from 3.5 to 5.5. it's not worthwhile to look at his his history. i'll be digging this thread up after week 17. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
enis_44 0 Posted July 15, 2009 Stats and projections: Here you go: Kyle Orton 2005 15g 51.6%comp 1869yards 9Td 13int 2006 0g 2007 3g 53.8%comp 478yards 3Td 2int 2008 15g 58.5%comp 2972yards 18Td 12int So, here's my projection: He will continue to be Kyle Orton. He's never completed 60% of his passes or thrown for 3000 yards, or for 20Td's. He's simply not that good. He's not gonna go to Denver and magically learn to throw a deep ball or read a defense. This isn't Drew Brees coming out of San Diego here. No, this is Kyle freaking Orton we're talking about. I'll pass. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kmbryant09 1 Posted July 15, 2009 Stats and projections:Here you go: Kyle Orton 2005 15g 51.6%comp 1869yards 9Td 13int 2006 0g 2007 3g 53.8%comp 478yards 3Td 2int 2008 15g 58.5%comp 2972yards 18Td 12int So, here's my projection: He will continue to be Kyle Orton. He's never completed 60% of his passes or thrown for 3000 yards, or for 20Td's. He's simply not that good. He's not gonna go to Denver and magically learn to throw a deep ball or read a defense. This isn't Drew Brees coming out of San Diego here. No, this is Kyle freaking Orton we're talking about. I'll pass. Neither had Carson Palmer until his breakout year in '05 Just sayin, sometimes people actually improve - conditions improve, talent/intelligence improves, teammates improve, coaching staff/systems improve. Ya know before Tom Brady's breakout year in '07, he had averaged about 3,600-3,700 yards and 24 TDs per year. Then with Moss and Welker, a new-pass happy system/coaching staff, he puts up 4,800 and 50... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Octopus 0 Posted July 15, 2009 i agree that you can't predict injuries. but you're predicting simms? because of injury to orton, his ineffectiveness, a losing record, or simms winning the job? also i'm not very keen on using last year's defensive numbers to evaluate strength of schedule. I'm also relatively high on Orton, and agree with the bolded to some extent. However if we are projecting offensive numbers doesn't it stand to reason that we should project defensive SOS to some extent? It's hard to imagine that the Baltimore, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, New England, NY Giant and San Diego defenses aren't going to be among the elite next season when all is said and done - there's just too much talent and track record there. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DankNuggs 305 Posted July 15, 2009 Can you start a thread about how smart you have to be playing in 2 QB leagues? They're my favorite. For a 10 team league its the optimal format... for >10 it is completely useless... goes without saying really... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FeelingMN 273 Posted July 15, 2009 For a 10 team league its the optimal format... for >10 it is completely useless... goes without saying really... No! I want talk about complexity, and multi-factorial analysis. T-functions....you know, like some hardcore mathematic calculations interspersed with football talk....accented with condescension. And is someone in here drawing comparison between Carson Palmer, Tom Brady and Kyle Freaking Orton? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites