Shonne Greene's v Mathews' dynasty stock

[#1LionFan 0]

I am in a $400 salary cap PPR dynasty league and I drafted Shonn Greene last season. I was offered the 1.01 rookie draft pick for Greene (along with a later draft pick I would have to throw in). What this boils down to - is Mathews long term value in SD better than Greene's? Mathhews would cost me $60 whereas Green's salary is $30 this year.

[Kitsnow 0]

Hard to say Matthews possibly more in ppr he'll get more catches. Not sure he's worth the $30 difference.

[jocstrap 8]

shonn green rushed for 100 yards in every game his final season in the big ten. That's better than what Barry Sanders did at OSU. Then he was given a chance with the Jets late season and playoffs and went off. However, receptions are minimal at very best. Td's should make up for this though. Is he flashy- No. Is he a solid running back - yes, and apparently there is an intangible in play here that makes him special.

 

Mathew's - what has he ever done in a real rushing league without the spread offense? However, he will get all the opportunities to strive in SD plus the receptions. Can he actually handle the load when a LB pounds him into the ground on his shoulder without getting injured? We can't answer that yet.

 

I like them both so much in their own ways.

 

I believe Green will outscore Mathew 2010 in ff points for the next coulple of years.

 

I would be so happy with either one as my #2 in any type of scoring league. You just have to go with your gut here, but both are great choices IMO.

 

A very hard decision

[Mad Brad 0]

PLEEEZE.... You take Matthews, no questions asked... not even a horse race.... MB

[Portis26 0]

Greenes $30 cost difference makes him more attractive IMO

[Kopy 570]

Greene.

[Raider 84 29]

Greene is a beast!

[WhiteWonder 2,751]

had they both cost the same, it would be a debate.

 

at 30 cheaper, you take greene and dont look back. even if Mathews outperforms him, your team should be 30 better somewhere else...

[madd futher mucker 36]

had they both cost the same, it would be a debate.

 

at 30 cheaper, you take greene and dont look back. even if Mathews outperforms him, your team should be 30 better somewhere else...

 

Right answer. And he wants YOU to throw in the later round pick? He's overvaluing his 1.01.

[Mad Brad 0]

Right answer. And he wants YOU to throw in the later round pick? He's overvaluing his 1.01.

 

 

Ok OK, Now that I consider the dollars at stake, greene may be a better value, but matthews is still who I pick, and roll the auction dice later in the draft... I can see taking greene and saving some cash as well though... tough call... MB

[IAMWood 6]

Right answer. And he wants YOU to throw in the later round pick? He's overvaluing his 1.01.

 

[Super Cubs 154]

I am in a $400 salary cap PPR dynasty league and I drafted Shonn Greene last season. I was offered the 1.01 rookie draft pick for Greene (along with a later draft pick I would have to throw in). What this boils down to - is Mathews long term value in SD better than Greene's? Mathhews would cost me $60 whereas Green's salary is $30 this year.

Where do you pick in the 1st round of the rookie draft?

[sirwinzalot 1]

Over the long haul it's a coin flip, but I play to win now, so my pick would be Mathews, only because Mathew's schedule looks pretty soft compared to Greene's.

[PackYourNut 47]

Personally, I like Matthews over Greene because he has the better QB, better WR's and a worse defense. ie. more scoring opportunities.

 

Historically, the AFC West defenses are atrocious, where as the AFC east is usually pretty strong. Greene will be a stud, but I can see the Jets playing a lot of low scoring games and SD playing a ton of high scoring ones. Schedule wise, SD has a huge advantage this year.

 

30 bucks is a lot though and I would tell him, if he wants to trade, that he owes you another pick. Not the other way around.

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver 0]

Personally I'd take Mathews even with the salary cap difference of $60 vs $30. If this was a non-PPR I'd have them ranked equally, but Greene's value is seriously hurt in PPR. Think about it this way....even if Greene scores 1 TD in every game (which he likely won't do BTW), Mathews will produce just as much as those 16 TD's if you only include his 3-4 catches per game + receiving yardage. Add in rushing TD's, receiving TDs, and rushing yards......I think Mathews wins hands down. Greene doesn't catch the pass AT ALL, which is an enormous negative in a PPR league. Backs that can catch have a huge advantage week in and week out. What happens if Greene has 100 yards + 0 TD's and 0 catches. This would be a pretty good game for Greene. It will bo so easy for Mathews to out produce that with just an average game of 50 yards rushing, 3 receptions, + 20 receiving yards........a below average day for Mathews I would think.

 

PPR: Mathews >> Greene - take the trade

non-PPR: Mathews = Greene - don't take the trade

[Cstriker 2]

Run first team with a potential stud RB with 300 touch projection vs an unproven rookie that has playmaker QB , WR, TE and catchign RB around him with a 250 touch projection.

 

*scratch head*

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver 0]

Run first team with a potential stud RB with 300 touch projection vs an unproven rookie that has playmaker QB , WR, TE and catchign RB around him with a 250 touch projection.

 

*scratch head*

 

I hear your points and they are valid, but you forget Tomlinson is in NY as well and this is a PPR league.

[Cstriker 2]

I hear your points and they are valid, but you forget Tomlinson is in NY as well and this is a PPR league.

 

Sproles is a bigger threat to steal catches in SD at this point than LT in NY. Or am i missing something? Honestly.

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver 0]

Sproles is a bigger threat to steal catches in SD at this point than LT in NY. Or am i missing something? Honestly.

 

You are completely missing the point. When comparing PPR RB's you are not comparing their backups, you have to compare their receiving skills. Guess how many catches Greene had last year?? I dare you to guess. ZERO!! Greene has NEVER been asked the catch the ball because he can't catch. It was the same in Iowa. ZERO Catches in a full year of football!! Zero catches is also unacceptible when you are playing in a PPR league. I am not saying Matthews is the next Ray Rice, but he does have recieving skills. Even a modest 30 catches for Mathews (which is a low guess) will negate 5 rushing TD's by Greene.....not even including receiving yards.

 

I can tell you have never played in a PPR league.

[Stewburtx8 67]

Sproles is a bigger threat to steal catches in SD at this point than LT in NY. Or am i missing something? Honestly.

 

 

That doesn't matter because Shonn Greene is not going to catch hardly any passes. He is not a pass catching back. He had 0 receptions last season, and had only 8 receptions his senior year at Iowa. If you project him for a year similar to Thomas Jones on the ground the last two seasons, then you'd be looking at 1300 yards and 12 TD's. This would be just over 200 points in PPR leagues. If you want to project him even better, say 1400 yards and 14 TD's, then you'd be looking at close to 225 points in PPR leagues.

 

Mathews is the Chargers featured back. They've made that absolutely clear. If he gets 250 carries and 40 receptions (Norv Turner's prediction, not mine), you could be looking at quite a season in that explosive offense. If he averages even 3.8 yards per carry and 7.5 yards per catch, he would finish with 1250 total yards. At 1,250 total yards and 40 receptions, thats already 165 fantasy points in PPR. He would then need to score only 6 TD's to top 200 fantasy points in PPR, and 10 TD's to top 225 fantasy points in PPR. I really think Ryan Mathews has a very good chance to outscore Shonn Greene in PPR next season. Shonn Greene takes a big hit in this format (like Michael Turner) because he doesn't catch many passes. I'd definitely take Shonn Greene in standard scoring, but not in PPR.

 

What makes this decision soo tough is that Mathews would cost you $30 more than Shonn Greene. That's a big difference in an auction league, and money that could be used wisely elsewhere. If he also wants you to throw in another pick, then I think you have to pass on the deal. If you could get him to throw something else in, then this could turn out to be a nice trade for you.

[Cstriker 2]

I can tell you have never played in a PPR league.

 

Close. Last year is the first time I played PPR. RBs were forte (1.2 pick), Ronnie Brown , Slaton (gave up sproles to get him), PT. Needless to say the season sucked in terms of RB production. But my WRs and strong IDP play bailed me out.

 

I picked Forte over ADP over analyzing catches. Did not turn out well at all. But hind sight is a biznotch

[WhiteWonder 2,751]

Zero catches is also unacceptible when you are playing in a PPR league.

 

i can't stress enough how wrong this is.

 

PPR scoring is no reason to avoid a player. If you happen to feel a certain RB is going to have more yards and more scores than another guy, you don't avoid him because he doesn't catch passes.

 

As far as RB's are concerned, pass catching is a tie breaker or a safety net. As in, the guys who catch more passes out of the backfield are less likely to have a terrible game if the rushing attack is shut down.

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver 0]

i can't stress enough how wrong this is.

 

PPR scoring is no reason to avoid a player. If you happen to feel a certain RB is going to have more yards and more scores than another guy, you don't avoid him because he doesn't catch passes.

 

As far as RB's are concerned, pass catching is a tie breaker or a safety net. As in, the guys who catch more passes out of the backfield are less likely to have a terrible game if the rushing attack is shut down.

 

Well Duh! Obviously I would take Greene at some point......just not infront of Mathews which is what this thread is about.

 

Many of you know I like to make small bets. In a PPR league I will take bets from anyone that Mathews outscores Greene in 2010 fantasy football (weeks 1-16). Standard scoring: 1 point per reception, 0.1 points per yard rushing/receiving, and 6 points for a TD.

[IAMWood 6]

Well Duh! Obviously I would take Greene at some point......just not infront of Mathews which is what this thread is about.

 

Many of you know I like to make small bets. In a PPR league I will take bets from anyone that Mathews outscores Greene in 2010 fantasy football (weeks 1-16). Standard scoring: 1 point per reception, 0.1 points per yard rushing/receiving, and 6 points for a TD.

 

I will take that bet, but Matthews has to double Greene's production since he is double the price.

[Ray_T 754]

had they both cost the same, it would be a debate.

 

at 30 cheaper, you take greene and dont look back. even if Mathews outperforms him, your team should be 30 better somewhere else...

I also have got to agree.

 

Greene is a beast and will likely outperform matthews this year and next.

 

the other issue is that Matthews is playing in a Pass first system and has a crappy O-Line. Greene is playing in a run first system and has a road grader for an offensive line.

 

this is a no brainer. dont even consider trading Greene away.

[#1LionFan 0]

OK, OK - I see the greene v Mathews debate. thanks for all the insight. What if I could trade Greene ($30) away for either the 2nd ($51), 3rd ($43) or 4th ($36) pick in the rookie draft & another prospect? This would land me either Best, Spiller or Dez Bryant and a young, cheap RB or WR. Would you do this and if so which rookie would you target and what kind of throw in prospect would be fair to ask? Remember, this is a salary cap, ppr dynasty league and this is why I am a bit down on Greene.

 

I am in a $400 salary cap PPR dynasty league and I drafted Shonn Greene last season. I was offered the 1.01 rookie draft pick for Greene (along with a later draft pick I would have to throw in). What this boils down to - is Mathews long term value in SD better than Greene's? Mathhews would cost me $60 whereas Green's salary is $30 this year.

[Kitsnow 0]

IF you feel like you have to trade away Greene because you think he is trash just take the hike and get matthews. He'll have the better year this year than most rookies, that is unless you are down on him too. (though we though you were talking about the actual value because of the cap in your draft)

 

If what matters is solely your opinion on who you are down on or up on, ( which is fine, but you asked for help here) Just pick the player you are highest on even if it is Tim Tebow and then trade Greene for him.

 

Hell if trading is an option you can look to even trading for for non-rookie draft picks then just trade him for a player you like from another team.

 

You can be like the guy who traded Greene for Portis and Dez Bryant.

 

So in the end there isn't even a reason for you to post here and ask questions, make your trade and we can mock or praise you later. (Or any combination wherein)

[IAMWood 6]

IF you feel like you have to trade away Greene because you think he is trash just take the hike and get matthews. He'll have the better year this year than most rookies, that is unless you are down on him too. (though we though you were talking about the actual value because of the cap in your draft)

 

If what matters is solely your opinion on who you are down on or up on, ( which is fine, but you asked for help here) Just pick the player you are highest on even if it is Tim Tebow and then trade Greene for him.

 

Hell if trading is an option you can look to even trading for for non-rookie draft picks then just trade him for a player you like from another team.

 

You can be like the guy who traded Greene for Portis and Dez Bryant.

 

So in the end there isn't even a reason for you to post here and ask questions, make your trade and we can mock or praise you later. (Or any combination wherein)

 

Yeah, at some point you have to sack up and be your own man. I have played fantasy for a long time, year in, year out, I pick someone I am personally not real big on because of ADP or hype or whatever... sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But one thing is for sure, if you make YOUR decision, YOU made the call for better or for worse. It's the point of fantasy. good luck bro.

 

[TopGun77 1]

I like Matthews situation in San Diego quite a bit. However, was I seeing things in the Jets playoff run last year? I appreciate the fact that Greene's lack of involvement in the passing game hurts him in PPR leagues. But, we are talking about a kid who looked awful special in the playoffs last year. In a run-first offense with a tremendous offensive line and an excellent defense, I can see Greene putting up huge numbers. If this kid stays healthy, I don't see why 1500 yards and 15 tds is not attainable in 2010. And, he is $30 cheaper. Greene all the way in my book.

[BuckeyeZ 2]

I would have to go with Greene, hands down. However, if you are not sold, why don't you counter? He obviously wants Greene. Counter with a him having to give you something else. You have a great argument for him to give you more. Site every reason on this post. I really do not like Sproles as an every down back, but he has been taking LT's work for a few years now. He will do the same with Matthews. Let this guy show you how much he wants Greene. If it were me, I would expect you to counter.

[Ray_T 754]

Yeah, at some point you have to sack up and be your own man. I have played fantasy for a long time, year in, year out, I pick someone I am personally not real big on because of ADP or hype or whatever... sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But one thing is for sure, if you make YOUR decision, YOU made the call for better or for worse. It's the point of fantasy. good luck bro.

 

you do bring up a valid point.

 

one thing I have discovered, in fantasy sports, to be successful, you sometimes have to assume you are right and everyone else is wrong.

 

now, with that being said, I like to use this forum and the one at FBG as my sounding board for a second opinion on things. Once in a while you will have a brain cramp and will wanna do something stupid.

 

the other thing I use this board for is incomplete info.

 

being on the west coast and living in Canada, I dont get to see players live as often as I'd like (you get a better idea of what a player can do when you see them play live as compared to TV) so incomplete info can be an issue for me. When I'm not sure, I check the board or as a question to get the info I need.

 

this can be especially true with rookies who, as college players, dont get on TV as often.

[IAMWood 6]

you do bring up a valid point.

 

one thing I have discovered, in fantasy sports, to be successful, you sometimes have to assume you are right and everyone else is wrong.

 

now, with that being said, I like to use this forum and the one at FBG as my sounding board for a second opinion on things. Once in a while you will have a brain cramp and will wanna do something stupid.

 

the other thing I use this board for is incomplete info.

 

being on the west coast and living in Canada, I dont get to see players live as often as I'd like (you get a better idea of what a player can do when you see them play live as compared to TV) so incomplete info can be an issue for me. When I'm not sure, I check the board or as a question to get the info I need.

 

this can be especially true with rookies who, as college players, dont get on TV as often.

 

I totally concur.

 

If I remember this thread right, don't feel like looking it back over, the guy kept nagging on making his decision for him.

 

this board has won me many a championship over the years. It was real nice when no one knew about it.